Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 246. (Read 907227 times)

What are the designs?

Prior to the November rally last year, BTC price was floating around $100, which is around 38% of the $266 ATH. Right now the price is about $450, which is 37.5% of the current $1200 ATH. It seems like $450 is the price we're gonna settle at till the next upwards push. If the Chinese do dump most of their coins, we could see a flash crash followed by a quick recovery back to the $400s.

What we have now is the adjustment to the reality that the adoption curve is really log-logistic as I have shown, thus rpietila's claim from his linear adoption projection chart that the price should be $900+ is likely incorrect.

My best way to convince you this is so, is to note that there is no way the universe would remove all competition to make it so easy for lazy investors to become so insanely rich. To become very wealthy requires active knowledge in developing and managing. The universe doesn't hand great sustained wealth to people who make one lucky decision. Rather (even the greatest of all time such as Jesse Livermore) speculators always end up back at 0 eventually.

Bitcoin is not going to $0 and it is going higher eventually. But the rate of price appreciation will not be "to the moon" although another speculative frenzy might make you believe that one more time (to your great demise because next time it will really crash hard because adoption will have drastically slowed and there will be other vastly superior competitors taking over the ecosystem).

Btw, I have looked into the eye of the future of crypto-currency and I have seen that Bitcoin is going to be wiped out. I have seen some new designs in the past few days that blew my mind.

You are going to be hit with an onslaught of very serious altcoins and not just my designs.

I hope that bitcoin's prospects will not be undermined by people like Circle which is selling out way too early.
http://gigaom.com/2014/04/07/bitcoin-will-be-part-of-the-global-banking-order-says-circle-ceo/

I would say more:
Slippage to sell 15k: $50, slippage to buy 15k: $280

To further this last point a bit, even if conversion does fall and is bound for whatever reason (which won't happen, not sure how it's even a question anymore 5 years in given the level of progress), many including myself re-formulated their desired ends.  Becoming engulfed by bitcoin leads to learning about many topics at the fringes of their respective developments.  If concerned, simply factor in some element of failure potential, such that your newly aligned interests and future goals can develop towards whichever cryptocurrency related paradigm inspires you, and progress regardless.  

I'm also excited about this year and next years run. I share you with same beliefs. I wish I can buy more coins, I'm (fiat) broke.

This is exactly where I stand too. Bitcoin is the best means which could enable me to follow my dream. If it can't, I'll just have to find a different solution.

And if Bitcoin goes to zero, BitchicksHusband would have to continue to browse the web and post on message boards at the office instead of at home. 

Suggestion for those tempted to short BTC in order to gain more coins:  Instead, take a moderately short position on the Russell 2000 for the next week or two.  Less risk, more upside.  Roll gains into BTC.

I wouldn't say "lack of college fund".  It's just that they would have to go to a state school instead of private.  And maybe have smaller weddings instead of bigger.  No big deal, really.

Freedom is just another word for nothing left to lose.

I had to "unignore" to comment, but if Bitcoin goes to zero, our lives will stay exactly the same with no change whatsoever.  Same job, same house, same lack of college fund for the kids.   Ever hear the statement "only invest what you can afford to lose?"

Some of us actually follow that principal.

Many others share the belief that the Bitcoin Economy has a binary distribution with regard to probability of success. Either Bitcoin entirely replaces the existing legacy, pre-internet financial infrastructure, or it entirely fails to do so. Fortunately, if bitcoin prices go to zero, it would not be a life changing event for me. Rather I would simply commit all my freed up time to my research.

For me Bitcoin is not the end, but the best means to an end.

Would it also be life-changing for you if we don´t get a new bubble and instead fall down to <100$ ?

That is exactly how I feel - not worried at all and feeling more excited than anything!

This next bubble will not be life-changing for me, as a lifetime of frugality, a good marriage, and compound interest have given me freedom for some years. But the bubble in 2015 will allow me to self-angel-fund my startup, and the bubble in 2016 will self-cover what would otherwise be VC round A.

Exciting indeed.

Thanks Risto.  I think we are pretty much at "rock bottom" too, but having you say it brings more validity to my "feelings" for sure.  I am staying calm and even buying a little right now, which I had a really hard time doing last Summer when it got so low.  I was able to "hold" but I had a hard time convincing myself, and BitChicksHusband, to buy any more at that time.  Granted, we had little extra cash laying around to do so anyways so perhaps that was part of it too.  But I think I have learned from the past year how to manage my emotions when it comes to these swings, which is a huge part of how to succeed in this.  What is really weird is that I am not that worried at all and feeling more excited than anything!  I can't wait for the next run.  This next run up in price could be truly life changing for us (as for many that joined in last year).   

How many days have we spent this low so far??

I asked in the big thread and lost my net connection and it went poof on submit, but will ask here instead.


What do you all mean by the wall, support/resistance, dead cat, etc and can you be a bit more specific than general so I can compare to any given chart to understand what is being referred to (or if you have a labeled chart that would rock)

Is it possible (or desired?) to script these bots or theses market charts somehow to show what trades are what - as in labels or something that show when a buy/sell pattern is likely going to be bot trading, or to label the "wall" or resistance/support, or so on?

And is it possible that Chinese officials investors know BTC is the bomb and declare this ban or restriction knowing the general population will dump their BTC thinking it's worthless to them now in order to drive the price waay down to double digits, and then step in and buy a ton of them for their own pockets...then turn around and announce, "oops, webad, btc good, go on for it!" and let the people trade and cash out btc? Deliberate ploy to pick up BTC on the cheap and then inject it back?

Of course you are probably right...  As to the volume: the prevailing trend on volume is down.  I see nothing to suggest a change yet.  We still need to cross 4/15.

I wonder if it is no coincidence the Chinese picked the US tax day for their dropdead...