Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 273. (Read 907227 times)

Certainly reasonable on its face. Ultimately it depends on whether stake size is correlated or anticorrelated with adoption lag and conversion rate - keeping in mind that value is in marginal flow rather than in stock.  Should be a closed form exponential family solution set certainly.  I haven't done the math but plan to now that you point it out

Why 'she'?

I repeat: there are no new issues. It is a common scare-tactic to raise some evergreen issues when it is important to fool the newcomers.

Therefore "presented with" reveals you agenda pretty well  

A wallet that tracks your fiat cost base is important to develop so that U.S. people can pay taxes, but "discussion" about it among people who don't have the capability to make it (not to say it is difficult because it is a standard requirement for enterprise accounting since 1800s) is moot.

I think the various adoption metrics that eg. AnonyMint has brought up are interesting and important.

I think that Bid/Ask ratio is only relevant in the region where you may actually get bitten by a market order (let's say 5,000 coins). Anyone can load coins to 700+ region to supposedly scare people away but only fools and trolls are deceived.

5,000 coins takes the price lower by $36 and higher by $104 as of now. I think it tells the obvious.

aminorex what did you think of my idea on prior page that the adoption is log-logistic as opposed to logistic?

 historical correlation between sum ratio and price is what?


Bids closer in are much more indicative of marginal bias.

Seems legit.

Wacked on crank? Buy the bank.

Full of dewt?  Lick a newt.

Yeah, method is confirmed reliable.

All the time since December, until Feb 25th, I was having about that much money in bids in Bitstamp. For 6 weeks, they were about 10% of the visible orderbook between 400-800. All the time, I was wanting for Bitcoin price to go... up?

 

These bids are not mine but if I place bids, they will look very similar with the difference being decimal .12 

@MatTheCat --- good post page back

# of pixels in my monitor?

Meaningless obfuscation.

The bid/sum ratio is dreadful....I can't recall it ever being worse...even in 2011.

What is to be gained by denying the current issues we are presented with.  (and I'm talking as a 'community' rather than personal or individual gain.)

The world economy is going down the drain due to the enormous debt build up. In order to prevent total chaos when the castle starts breaking apart governments will want to confiscate as much wealth as possible. They won't go down without a fight so to say. And their best fighting power is taxation of different sort. How far they go is the question. I don't think they would go to the obscene levels Anonymint speaks of (70%+ taxation) but who knows.

I am so sorry to pollute Risto's thread with unsuitable words, but WTF ?!
What confiscation ? Who's confiscating what ?! Are we in the middle ages or bolshevik Russia _(CCCP)_ now ?
AnonyMint, would you please care to share your thoughts / analysis / sources on this one with us ?

She is playing with a rather large ball of capital at what I would consider a very risky time. I also notice that these Bids are getting pulled outwith 'her' office hours. Although, from experience, the walls on Stamp are more likely than not to be genuine, as opposed to on Bitfinex, where 9/10 times, anything large and imposing is generally intended to trick traders into doing the wrong thing.

Someone really doesn't want Bitcoin to go down, huh?

In all seriousness, I know that you are in control of a hell of a lot of Bitcoins, and that sub $500 has been your accumulation zone, and that any dip below this territory, perhaps starts eating into the actual profitability of some of your investments.

To me, as a mere onlooker with nothing much to lose except being whipsawed yet again out of a short position which had I just held out on would have came good (yet again), it seems pretty obvious that Bitcoin is going to go lower than the crucial $380 - $400 support. You, with your exponential mean curves and your heavily vested interests in This being the actual bottom on the otherhand, may be in a position where your emotions are tricking you into thinking that it is everyone else who is being emotional, whilst you are being rational, but are you really?

China has not yet banned Bitcoin outright and China is not yet fully priced in. As Zhangwheiu explained, it is not going to be their style to kill it outright, but rather slowly stifle it all the while pretending that they have nothing against Bitcoin or Bitcoin exchanges per se. They say the 15th April, in all likelihood this will drag on longer than that, and with it, the steady flow of CNY coins seeking arbitrage opportunity and/or last gasp means of getting wealth out of CNY and into USD. Joe Blow right now is scared of Bitcoin. Large investors know that now is not a good time to invest. There just isn't the buying pressure at the moment to push Bitcoin up beyond anything more than a counter trend rally, but the selling pressure will continue in a steady stream thanks to Chinese based investors getting out of Bitcoin.

We are currently trending on very low volume at $450, just $70 above a very significant price point and I think you will understand better than most what it will likely mean for market psychology if this $380 support fails to hold.

I have (practically) no market position that is affecting my emotional state. I say Bitcoin is going back to $200 range. If I am proven wrong than I shall be ready to jump back on if/when Bitcoin takes out and holds above important resistances (first being $480-$490), but will of course drop the lot the minute things start to look a bit shaky, as for me, my better instincts tell me that the writing is on the wall for Bitcoin.

Math Risto. You can't deny math. Here is the shocking revelation...

Because if you put a ruler on the chart along the bottoms of unique addresses on the log 10 chart, you see the slope was higher before the July 2011 crash, than it has been since 2012.

Also it is very likely that Bitcoin adoption is not logistic where the maximum rate of adoption is at 50% of the adoption as follows:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations


Because Bitcoin is not adopted for utility, rather the probability distribution of the adopters is power-law because that is the distribution of money[1] as follows.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_law


Thus Bitcoin adoption is log-logistic as follows. Note that for B=1/2 which is the power-law distribution, that the slope of the log-logistic function gradually declines for the life of the curve. And that is exactly what we are seeing happen thus far as I stated above.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Log-logistic_distribution




[1] A. Dragulescu and V. Yakovenko. Exponential and power-law probability distributions of wealth and income in the United Kingdom and the United States





Now you are being emotional and not based on reason and calm analysis of the data.


You are the one is scared. Evident by the tone of your reply.

I have no coins. And there is only a small chance that I might buy some if it goes low enough. I am calm. I am trying to analyze if it is worth me risking it given the lack of anonymity in Bitcoin and how horrific I see confiscation coming in 2016. So that is why I am analyzing what the true trendline and math is.

Also I am sharing so others can get a different perspective than just yours, since you don't seem to be willing to analyze other points-of-view.


Fundamental adoption rate along the bottom of the unique address curve has not changed.


Doesn't affect that fundamental adoption rate, but it does affect the 50% higher (at 150,000 and bottoms trendline projects to 100,000) on the unique addresses chart which is 50% higher than the fundamental adoption. This appears to be due to extreme exuberance from permabulls like you, who have not been looking realistically at the data and instead choosing the data fitting that paints a much more bullish trendline than the fundamental adoption where the periodic bottoms are.


I don't think anyone was talking about selling out and never buying back in. I think this was more about when to deploy funds.

Yeah we know that all markets are manipulated because the masses have to be suckered into overextending themselves and then pigs get slaughtered then repeat again.

got a hunch? buy a bunch.

# of bitcoins = 12,000,000
# of USD = 12,000,000,000,000

BId Sum 11M
Ask Sum 30M

$4.8 million from 445->600

$5.0 million from 445->400

Very true