rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 274.

creekbore

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Quote from: JoeyD on March 31, 2014, 07:25:21 AM

Could anyone conceive of a better moment to buy then in the low after mtGox and real China-ban?

I'm pretty depressed after being Goxxed and buying in waaaay too high, but my depression is showing some major cracks and I'm having real trouble convincing myself not to touch what remains of my fiat-reserves (which were not meant for bitcoin) to buy in now.

Old English Saying: "when in doubt, do nowt"

Seriously, don't trust any of the bullish 'advice' offered here (it's easy to be bullish when you own a 'castle')...if you think you could sleep well having lost all your money, then you are fine...if not, don't invest.

JoeyD

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Could anyone conceive of a better moment to buy then in the low after mtGox and real China-ban, that actually coincides with the usual post ATH dip and spring-depression? There's a limit to how favorable you want the stars to align.

I'm pretty depressed after being Goxxed and buying in waaaay too high, but my depression is showing some major cracks and I'm having real trouble convincing myself not to touch what remains of my fiat-reserves (which were not meant for bitcoin) to buy in now.

mmitech

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things you own end up owning you

Source: https://litecointalk.org/index.php?topic=16820.msg152688#msg152688

For the lazy ones:

Hi all,

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Thank you

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RAJSALLIN

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Quote from: rpietila on March 31, 2014, 06:33:24 AM

Quote from: IamComrade on March 31, 2014, 06:22:12 AM

i agree with rpietila in a way i think there is also chance we go up from here but what about China rpietila don't you consider China ban being a huge dent for the short term? Also are you recommending people buy at this current price?

I am fed up with everybody panicking, and this is realistically a sign when the bottom is in. China "ban" is an absolute nonevent, it was around longer than you have had an account. Yes, I do recommend buying because this is the bottom, any questions?

Once the legacy banking system starts breaking down again; sentiment will change and bitcoin will be hitting new ATHs.

I think this is a very important statement which is often forgotten in the noise. Bitcoin is a novel monetary system and when the current system starts cracking up then bitcoin gets steam (like Cyprus last year). The fact that teh current system has been relatively stable for almost a year now and despite that bitcoin has gained momentum is a very strong sign. If the current system starts showing it's ugly face again bitcoin will see new highs. I'm certain of this. The question is how much longer can the current system go on without any cracks at all. Armstrong says fall next year but that's when s*** really is going to start happen. Until then I think it's fairly reasonable we could see miniature events that propel bitcoin.

rpietila

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Quote from: Carra23 on March 31, 2014, 06:50:07 AM

Damm, rpietla says this is the bottom? I want 400 Cry

I mean in a larger context. Something like "when the current pressure in the markets conclusively abates, then that marks the end of the capitulation process, during which the bottom has been formed so that the low point has probably been above the support at 375, and where this low will probably have been reached at most 1 week from now".

"probably" = "with somewhat greater probability than 50% (eg. 60-65%)"

koryu

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i think smart money has sold long ago, and it was a good move. but i dont think we will go much lower, maybe 400 is possible.
but anybody who is selling now, could become one of the weak hands washed out. so if you are not an experienced trader the risk is higher than the profit you might make.
when smart money buys back in you dont want to be the one who sells your btcs to them.

Carra23

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Need a campaign manager? PM me

Damm, rpietla says this is the bottom? I want 400 Cry

rpietila

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Quote from: ?? on ??

It's not a question of "omg should I sell or not sell because I am such afraid", it's "I sold much much higher, now do I have any reason to buy back yet or should I just keep relaxing and watch more kpop music videos?"

This is not directed to you(si) but the ones who are too much in and are considering between selling and rope.

As you have seen, I am also lining up my funds that I did not believe I would need, but nevertheless are still there to buy bitcoins if the price goes to 420 and below.

For all: If you want to sell off-exchange (slight discount) PM me.

rpietila

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Quote from: IamComrade on March 31, 2014, 06:22:12 AM

i agree with rpietila in a way i think there is also chance we go up from here but what about China rpietila don't you consider China ban being a huge dent for the short term? Also are you recommending people buy at this current price?

I am fed up with everybody panicking, and this is realistically a sign when the bottom is in. China "ban" is an absolute nonevent, it was around longer than you have had an account. Yes, I do recommend buying because this is the bottom, any questions?

sgbett

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: N12 on January 30, 2014, 12:01:06 AM

Quote from: BitChick on January 29, 2014, 03:19:12 PM

We have seen the ups and downs and have realized it all works out in the end. Wink

This is the great delusion that markets bestow upon people, that a trend is invulnerable and "it all works out in the end" almost sounds like religious faith. I know that nothing I can say could possibly make you think otherwise, but still, please consider how you would react if Bitcoin slid 80% or 90% from here during the next 6 months. Even if the probability is small, are you ready for it?

Because this has happened before, and it happened in this very asset (even if you tell me that times are "different" now – well, to compensate, the price is higher to begin with!). I remember that time well. At the time, there was a long-term log support trendline, too, that was being drawn by everyone in this forum. It was violently BROKEN:

not from a ta perspective but from a psychology perspective, so many people have seen BTC bounce and rally that i think it is hard for people to truly capitulate. i think thats why the selloff has been slower and more gradual (bit like 2011).

so bottom could be in, or it could be still a long way to go. either way the last thing i would do right now is sell, and (traders look away now) the best thing to do would be to be buying. insert standard "it could go to zero, don't risk what you can't afford to lose". I'm holding.

(and stacking a little silver too. pretty good prices if you ask me.)

IamComrade

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Quote from: rpietila on March 31, 2014, 06:18:27 AM

Quote from: AnonyMint on March 31, 2014, 05:00:36 AM

We should now shift into yet again a lower adoption slope than from July 2011 to December 2013.

What a heck makes you think so at a face of universal awareness that is just achieved?

I am more interpreting the sudden but unrelenting attack towards coin in this thread and elsewhere, that the bottom is in during these very days, and after 1 week we are already higher and never look back.

Yes, this is a quite strong statement but that is statistically correct: whenever the world around you goes mad so that you feel like not even interested to argue with them because they are stuck with bitcoin's doom and cannot consider alternative viewpoints, then

Don't expect me to soothe your(pl.) fears now. You have chosen fear, you could reject it like I do. Fundamentals have not changed, there is nothing in US or China statement that was new, or that threatens the adoption of bitcoin realistically. When you wake up, you see that all the things that you feared that week, were there since many months, and will still be there. It is called targeted propaganda that they are suddenly poured over you at one time and make you lose your mind.

Don't lose your bitcoins by selling now. Last time the runup from July-November was 63->1163, well worth the wait.

i agree with rpietila in a way i think there is also chance we go up from here but what about China rpietila don't you consider China ban being a huge dent for the short term? Also are you recommending people buy at this current price?

rpietila

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Quote from: AnonyMint on March 31, 2014, 05:00:36 AM

We should now shift into yet again a lower adoption slope than from July 2011 to December 2013.

What a heck makes you think so at a face of universal awareness that is just achieved?

I am more interpreting the sudden but unrelenting attack towards coin in this thread and elsewhere, that the bottom is in during these very days, and after 1 week we are already higher and never look back.

Yes, this is a quite strong statement but that is statistically correct: whenever the world around you goes mad so that you feel like not even interested to argue with them because they are stuck with bitcoin's doom and cannot consider alternative viewpoints, then

Don't expect me to soothe your(pl.) fears now. You have chosen fear, you could reject it like I do. Fundamentals have not changed, there is nothing in US or China statement that was new, or that threatens the adoption of bitcoin realistically. When you wake up, you see that all the things that you feared that week, were there since many months, and will still be there. It is called targeted propaganda that they are suddenly poured over you at one time and make you lose your mind.

Don't lose your bitcoins by selling now. Last time the runup from July-November was 63->1163, well worth the wait.

N12

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Quote from: mmitech on March 31, 2014, 06:03:50 AM

I would like to remind people about these charts:

Bitcoin Price movements:

https://i.imgur.com/ejrTU8r.jpg

I'd like to remind people that 2011's bear market is conveniently left out from this chart. Can't possibly happen again after all, can it? Cheesy

Quote from this same thread:

Quote from: N12 on January 30, 2014, 12:01:06 AM

Quote from: BitChick on January 29, 2014, 03:19:12 PM

We have seen the ups and downs and have realized it all works out in the end. Wink

This is the great delusion that markets bestow upon people, that a trend is invulnerable and "it all works out in the end" almost sounds like religious faith. I know that nothing I can say could possibly make you think otherwise, but still, please consider how you would react if Bitcoin slid 80% or 90% from here during the next 6 months. Even if the probability is small, are you ready for it?

Because this has happened before, and it happened in this very asset (even if you tell me that times are "different" now – well, to compensate, the price is higher to begin with!). I remember that time well. At the time, there was a long-term log support trendline, too, that was being drawn by everyone in this forum. It was violently BROKEN:

And guess what? That break ended up being the best time to buy. But few bought, for few had money to spare, and many of those who did have given up on Bitcoin. I will tell you that all along this decline, there was plenty of good news as well. I believe Bitpay was created amidst the bear market for example.

All I want to say is that eventually, all trends break. Prepare yourself for the improbable, because it is devastating to lose almost all of your wealth. Do not let your mind be compromised by Bitcoin cultists. Let this be a lesson from a former Bitcoin cultist who has made a fortune off Bitcoin by turning himself into a Bitcoin pragmaticist.

mmitech

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things you own end up owning you

I would like to remind people about these charts:

Bitcoin Price movements:

Litecoin Price movements:

I want to trade this downtrend but it doesn't feel safe, I know a reversal is about to happen, and it could happen in a couple of days or couple of weeks and as they say never try to catch falling knives...

AnonyMint

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This appears to repeat nearly all the points I've made recently:

http://techcrunch.com/2014/03/30/bitcoin-slips-in-the-wake-of-the-irss-tax-decision/

AnonyMint

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Quote from: AnonyMint on March 31, 2014, 04:53:29 AM

Well on that log10 n chart, from Jan 12 to Jan 14 is roughly a 10X increase on the bottom trendline, thus sqrt(10) per year, thus n^2 = 10X per year. Thus price should be increasing 10X per year. Does that concur roughly with your trendline of p?

If I compound weekly a 8 - 10X price increase per annum from the $65 bottom at end of first week of July 2013, I calculate $297 to $350 as of April 1, 2014.

That projects to $1425 to $1985 by Jan. 1, 2015. Something like this is probably more realistic as the bottom (fundamental) level of adoption.

The strong hands probably buy based on these sort of level-headed calculations, not those least square fit to irrational exuberance deviations from the fundamental level of adoption.

The fundamental speculator buys on that bottom trendline and sells into the irrational exuberance. And gets very rich doing so.

Also putting a ruler on the bottoms of the n "All time" chart, I see that adoption slope slowed after July 2011. That is normal because adoption should be logistic.

We should now shift into yet again a lower adoption slope than from July 2011 to December 2013.

smoothie

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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Quote from: rpietila on March 31, 2014, 04:20:36 AM

Quote from: AnonyMint on March 31, 2014, 01:47:50 AM

I suggest to Risto that he run his trendline fit on silver and see if the trendline was predicting silver would be several $100s by now? Trendline fitting is like any TA, it is correct about 50% of the time. Undecided

Silver never ever had the paradigm that it would become generally used by all population. The reason for not having this paradigm is that silver was not better than the alternative. The rise in price can self-supply many things and would have been sufficient perhaps, IF silver was better suited as money than USD, but it wasn't.

Bitcoin is.

There is truth here. ^

AnonyMint

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Well on that log10 n chart, from Jan 12 to Jan 14 is roughly a 10X increase on the bottom trendline, thus sqrt(10) per year, thus n^2 = 10X per year. Thus price should be increasing 10X per year. Does that concur roughly with your trendline of p?

AnonyMint

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There is a combination of powerful differences from fiat and also speculative fever that at times get too far ahead of where those fundamental network effects are. So on the one hand you are correct, but on the other hand it acts like silver on the extremes.

What happens to your trendline if you plot the linear projection from bottoms of the n on the log chart, then extrapolate and use n^2 correlation as the price projection? I'm curious.

I am concerned that you are not removing the irrational silver-like schizophrenia component from your data set.

In the upthread discussion we posited that n^2 is more dominant than p. So you should be trendlining n, not p. Then convert to p via the correlation to n^2. And I am suggesting you trend the bottoms of n (as representative of the strong hands and the fundamental trend of adoption, not the speculative frenzy), not the least squares fit.

rpietila

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Quote from: AnonyMint on March 31, 2014, 01:47:50 AM

I suggest to Risto that he run his trendline fit on silver and see if the trendline was predicting silver would be several $100s by now? Trendline fitting is like any TA, it is correct about 50% of the time. Undecided

Silver never ever had the paradigm that it would become generally used by all population. The reason for not having this paradigm is that silver was not better than the alternative. The rise in price can self-supply many things and would have been sufficient perhaps, IF silver was better suited as money than USD, but it wasn't.

Bitcoin is.

Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 274. (Read 907212 times)