Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 279. (Read 907227 times)

Watch the CoinSummit youtube video with Bobby Lee and especially the telltale signs he mentions to see how Huobi in particular is suspect (possibly worse than mtGox), zero-fees are actually needed for this kind of fraud, otherwise your own investors might get wind of it (because you aren't making the profits your website says you are if you sell to yourself).

@Trolololo
Or there's a ton of Chinese gear mining like crazy and insta selling because they could care less about bitcoin and just want fiat.  Over 2 million usd per day gets mined.  Even if there's only 20% of total mining power in china which seems low that's half a million per day that needs to be bought by someone.  Either the miners "buy it" which is another way of saying they are keeping it or someone else needs to buy it.  Coupled with regular selling and the general bitcoin pressure is always down.  It moves up in spikes on what's basically a short squeeze.  How many of those can there be in a year?

Maybe this




1 Huobi permits leveraging (at 70-80% annual rate interest). That could explain part of its huge volume.

2 Huobi charts also show too much rounded numbers.
I.e. December and January maximums where 8000, 7000, 6000.

3 I wonder where does has that huge amount of bitcoins come from.
If was to sell my mined bitcoins in China's exchanges, I would need a china bank account to withdrawal yuans.
Nonsense for most of western miners.

So I suspect that Huobi has an insider bot (or something similar) that amplifies their customers' orders.

I watch Huobi, which is one of the Chinese exchanges that is a leader in no-fee trading. I find the volume numbers on Huobi plausible. I am not a trader now, but I believe no-fee trading greatly facilitates the high volume.

Regarding Risto's comment about adoption continuing and thus a demand increase and JoeyD's point about markets being unduly influenced by false data from Chinese markets, I just want to offer the thought that market price is (in economic theory) set by the marginal supply and demand, and thus in this case rushes in and out by speculators, not by the fundamental supply and demand.

Over the long-term marginal supply and demand is affected by fundamental supply and demand.

@AnonyMint: Actually I have a very similar outlook on the Chinese markets going forwards, but I was pointing out the flaw of Westerners (and USD probably easily owns well over 80%) today looking at the Chinese exchanges and letting their most likely fictitious numbers influence them. You're talking mostly about future possibilities however, not the current state.

I've heard people like Tuur DeMeester claiming that it's arbitrage that is pulling the btc-price on all other exchanges towards the Chinese ones, but I'm having a hard time buying that. I think most of the btc-market is in USD and they let themselves be lead by the nose, mostly by looking at bitcoinwisdom. So my question remains, why are the Westeners so fixated on the btc-price and volume on Chinese exchanges, when they are practically guaranteed that those numbers are faked?

If the blame lies with bitcoinwisdom and others portraying the Chinese numbers as reliable, then those sites should probably be notified of and take action against helping the fraud. Even if it only effects the non-Chinese market.

AnomyMint, Please dont accuse me of bias Im very aware that TA is just risk management

 

And unlike seleme would have you believe I have my eyes peeled on much larger orders of the market, although I find it lucrative to be fine tuned by entries and exits.

I am just really curious if you understand the engineering of a steel beam structure?

I mean you speak with such venom and ridicule, then certainly you must be knowledgeable?

So can I give you some test engineering questions and expect you to answer?

Don't get shy now fonzie. I remember you as an outgoing cool guy from Happy Days.

Can you tell me how fires and debris could bring the Eiffel tower down vertically in free fall entirely with not any portion standing nor falling off center?

Add: I will have to go restudy my reasons from before if you decide to get into this with me. As I remember offhand when I had studied it before the finite element analysis of the NIST model made assumptions which were impossible.

Basically it boils down to common sense. You can't get domino failure across a lattice structure and free fall.

So you are saying that if it turns up after establishing a new larger triangle it will still be contained within the upper trendline and eventually be lower.

My problem with TA is that it is about 50% accurate.  

Rather I look to see if the sentiment matches my reading of the chart and I'd rather look at some macroscopic pattern such as noting the psychology of the market might be similar to the silver market from 2011 peak on down.

Remember how everyone had a reason that silver couldn't go lower, yet it did because the markets had shifted. Capital began to return to the USA from emerging markets and the Fed was able to slow down on QE and prepare to reverse. Thus there wasn't going to be a mad rush into precious metals any time soon. In short, the expectations had exceeded the reality.

What we have here is a massive rush into Bitcoin last year as it went from obscurity to being discovered by the mass media. The short-term expectations exceeded the reality.

Now we have the reality of numerous problems hit and now everyone exhales and tries to call the bottom. And so we go down and find the point at which everyone says, "I don't care if it goes lower, this is too darn good of a price to not buy".

And I believe that price is $300 and below.

To get there we need capitulation where all those who have an excuse why it can't go lower, have to finally panic. When they panic near the bottom, then you should buy.

Add:

Examples of such excuses. We can see them actively in denial of the market movement.

Rumors of Bitcoin's libertarian death have been greatly exaggerated.

Taking responsibility is so haard.

White House Petition to AMEND IRS NOTICE 2014-2 Taxing virtual currency/Bitcoin

The mass media basically did this "Buy, buy, buy" since summer 2013 and now the "Sell, sell, sell". I mean to say there is a lot of emotion and extreme expectation in the demographic of people who entered because they saw something on the mass media. Emotions and expectations diehard then reverse too late in a frenzy. The assumptions these adopters made upon entering was more akin to overhearing something than deep analysis:

Torque, my guess (based on talking to them here in the Philippines) is it is more cultural than incentivized by the economic realities of their governance, but aren't the two probably causing each other any way (symbiotic). Realize that to large extent the Communist Party is now a mirage, and what is really going on is a lot of crony capitalism.

My guess is the Chinese are clamoring for something to move their money to from those bubbles which are cracking.

Interesting point on the speculation on numerous altcoins, and point taken that anonymity may have nothing to do with it. However anonymity might be desirable, because for example the Chinese have developed ways of obfuscating their comments in blogs and forums by hiding the main point in a joke or an idiom that has multiple meanings. And perhaps more so as the officials clamp down on crypto-currency. Although the government is allowing more freedom now, so maybe it is becoming unnecessary.

Also normal human nature is the more the government restricts something, the more people want to do it. Unlike Westerners who have become quite compliant (fattened with debt, filled with noise on TV, etc), the Chinese are still fighting for their success and appear to have 50,000 protests and riots per year (wonder if that is moderating since the government has been raising minimum wages rather aggressively of late).

What is the first thing you did when your mom said, "don't do that".

Also the Asians are really adopting technology. Even here in the Philippines, the most prized possession is a smart phone (a computer). So the crypto-currency may appear to be a like a game currency paradigm to the Chinese (but they haven't hit consciousness yet in Philippines but if someone makes a game with them then they will). In that case, proliferation of currencies would probably be what they would embrace.

I was told by Charles Hoskinson, that the Chinese are drooling to invest in altcoins. He said he could bring $10s to $100s of millions into an altcoin. And you see he has done it already twice with ProtoShares and Ethereum.

Bitcoin is the exchange currency between them, so the more the altcoins grow, the more Bitcoin grows.

test positive of upper wedge - no such evidence for the lower part.

if this does break into a larger fractal, the wedge should resume in the direction it came - down. Im taking profit of longs.

AnonyMint, actually I don't see it just from the bitcoin perspective, but have read a lot of different articles on the subject of China's shadow banking system.  Do you believe that it grew out of frustration with the government-blessed conservative banking agenda around standard low return investments, or that the Chinese entrepreneurs typically are just greedy as hell and have way more appetite for risk?  

Sometimes I get the feeling that it's a cultural thing.  That typical Chinese are not conservative minded at all, but are like WallStreeters on steroids.  That they all feel they are entitled to be wealthy, and will do anything to get there, no matter who of their own people might get hurt along the way.  And that they feel that their government is just holding them back.  Sometimes it seems to me that the Chinese government knows this of their own people's engrained behavior (just look at their politicians, they see it in the mirror), i.e. that they can be irresponsible/corrupt with money and power, and wants to basically babysit and protect the Chinese people from themselves before things get out of hand.  Hence their government's popping of bubbles every time they pop up, like playing whack-a-mole.  Also, anything in China that approaches something that resembles a "mania" (e.g., Falun Dafa, Tiananmen square, etc.) is immediately squashed like a bug.  I'm sure their gov't is worried that bitcoin mania may start to go down this path as well.

Regardless, I think the shadow banking system in China is starting to show some serious cracks from being so over-leveraged.

On altcoins, I hear that there are now hundreds of Chinese-flavored alt coins, and that this is what they all now talk about on QQ instead of bitcoin.  True or..?  Not sure how anonymous any of them are though.

The discussion on China is intriguing. You all appear to be looking at it only from the perspective of Bitcoin. You all appear to continue to have this tunnel vision which is forced on you by your vested interest. I think we need to fight our vested interest in order that we don't miss the bigger picture.

Am I correct that Chinese masses are more open to black market investments than Westerners? They have this shadow banking underground sub-economy wherein relatives refer each other to non-standard investments.

Thus is China Inc. forced to regulate more strongly because unlike in the west where Bitcoin appears to mostly limited to white males who hate central banking or high tech merchants who hate credit card payments, in China perhaps they see the seeds of a mass movement towards Bitcoin, i.e. not as a currency for normal purchases but as an investment vehicle and an investment currency?

Bear in mind that Chinese haven't been able to easily invest outside of their country and their culture really values investing excess income and the participation rate in the stock market and condo bubbles was apparently very high. Also the real interest rate paid on savings accounts is even more negative than in the west, so this forces the middle class to invest instead of save. Also the mainstream investment bubbles are popping already (not yet in the west). Michael Pettis's (mpettis.com) main point is that China's consumption share of GDP is 38% (with investment share at 58%) whereas normal is 50% and in the USA it is 70+% (thus investment share is much lower).

The differing regulation might tell us the different adoption demographics in each country. This might be a very insightful proxy.

If that assumption is correct, then apparently the Communist party are pushing Bitcoin further towards the underground economy (which I am hoping becomes the dominant economy).

This seems to play perfectly towards decentralized exchanges and anonymous coins.

I had already pondered that China (Asia) would be potentially the largest market for an anonymous altcoin due to the extremely high levels of corruption and bribery, e.g. Philippines still has a bank secrecy law for domestic citizens (for now although the IMF et al are working to get it removed ... no conspiracy eh?). Note as a foreigner the bank secrecy doesn't apply to you, the Philippines already has agreements with for example the IRS to share data on any foreign owned local bank account.

Interested to read your thoughts. Hopefully someone can dig up some data.

Risto in spite of knowing the masses will always be fooled, I am the naive optimist who believes every individual can be convinced to be rational. Throughout my life I engaged in discussion those people who disagreed with me, e.g. my grandmother on my father's side from the deep South (New Orleans) who had some negative stereotype of blacks in the 1970s and I think before she died her view had moderated. Probably wasn't due to me, rather society shifted. Also I dislike winning by being politically cunning (which is very obvious I am intentionally trying to fail politically), because I feel it is disingenuous. I despise political organization so much that I actively seek to destroy my political standing. I'd rather my arguments be in the open. I am never trying to win politically. Those times when I do win (and we have to fail often before we win), it is because of algorithmic or marketing insight. Those wins are absolute, and those are the best kind in my opinion. Politics is like a sinking sand, because every person has at least one issue they disagree with you on, and they turn from your supporter to your enemy overnight (there is a scripture about this). It requires so much effort to keep the supporters cohesive. The only self-sufficient wins are technological. I think what aggravated me so much is those who keep trying to turn it into a political contest. I want scientific debate. If someone disagrees with me, then presents some facts. Those snide political retorts have no merit. I really respect someone who had done research and can teach me something. I am not impressed by those who ignore history, as if human nature has changed and history doesn't repeat.

I am really a geek.

P.S. I will moderate my derogatory language in your threads.

It's very refreshing to see a few people openly acknowledging something that I have been thinking about myself since November.  With the exception of BTC China which may be on the level (for now Bobby Lee seems to be an upstanding guy, at least until proven otherwise), my fear is that the other Chinese exchanges are masking a world of fraud.  Fraud in the Chinese culture is not as frowned upon as it is in the U.S. and other countries, because they don't see it the same way... over there it is survival of the fittest, so many there would be willing to "bend the rules" if it gives them an edge.  Things that we found to be completely outrageous and unacceptable with Mt Gox, such as running a Ponzi, cooking the books, likely inflating BTC prices and volume levels, etc. might be seen in China as "business as usual", since there is no regulation to stipulate that they have to do anything on the level.

So what happens if it's proven that they are all inflating prices and volumes, running Ponzi's with phantom BTC, etc.?  What then, another extreme crash?  The more time that passes, the more extreme such a crash could be.  And more importantly, why should the rest of the world's bitcoin exchanges trust them enough to follow their price patterns?  Why should we allow them to pull the rest of the world's exchanges down?  Until someone credible is allowed to go in and audit the Chinese exchanges, I'll always remain dubious.  I guess the same could be said of having suspicions of Bitstamp and BTC-e, but I'm more inclined to trust a Bitstamp or a Kraken at this point than I am BTC-e or any of the Chinese exchanges.

triangles have a tendency to breakout into larger triangles, forming a fractal pattern of self-similar nested triangles. proper breakouts need to be accompanied by large volume to be confirmed. be patient

breakdown.

Surprised to see that this name isn't banned.
Rpietila, it's surprising to see that you have grown enough balls for not running to the admin to cry how the boys are making fun of you. Now, if you also wouldn't be as vain as an 10 year old girl, then you would be another step closer for being a man.

The issue is that your boiling is taking the situation to the opposite direction than where you want it. Sometimes seemingly losing the battle earns you more converts and respect than winning it.

To illustrate, let's assign a number 1-5 to each reader.

"5" means that the reader already idolizes you, and believes what you say blindly.
"4" is that she respects you and is receptive to your facts.
"3" means that she is open to different interpretations and questions your stuff to learn more.
"2" does not believe you or think much of you, or ignores you.
"1" believes you are a kook.

Now, whom should you address? Political parties say that it is best to target the group 3-4. The fanatical supporters support you nevertheless, and the fanatical supporters of the other party won't support you anyway.

In BCT, I try to ignore 1-2 people because they are themselves unwilling to learn, and the discussion level comes down if you fight with them.

Risto you are probably correct, but do you know I've tried being polite in forums about this topic (on and off over a decade) and am tired of being labeled a kook.

I don't like to talk to someone that way. But it is a two-way street. I have invested an enormous portion of my life being knowledgeable about such issues and being a sheepdog (meaning I am protecting society), and it is very frustrating when n00bs blather at me and disrespect my effort.