Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 342. (Read 907212 times)

This is the great delusion that markets bestow upon people, that a trend is invulnerable and "it all works out in the end" almost sounds like religious faith. I know that nothing I can say could possibly make you think otherwise, but still, please consider how you would react if Bitcoin slid 80% or 90% from here during the next 6 months. Even if the probability is small, are you ready for it?

Because this has happened before, and it happened in this very asset (even if you tell me that times are "different" now – well, to compensate, the price is higher to begin with!). I remember that time well. At the time, there was a long-term log support trendline, too, that was being drawn by everyone in this forum. It was violently BROKEN:



And guess what? That break ended up being the best time to buy. But few bought, for few had money to spare, and many of those who did have given up on Bitcoin. I will tell you that all along this decline, there was plenty of good news as well. I believe Bitpay was created amidst the bear market for example.

All I want to say is that eventually, all trends break. Prepare yourself for the improbable, because it is devastating to lose almost all of your wealth. Do not let your mind be compromised by Bitcoin cultists. Let this be a lesson from a former Bitcoin cultist who has made a fortune off Bitcoin by turning himself into a Bitcoin pragmaticist.

MatTheCat, you discussed the possibility of early adopters selling coins.  But isn't this what's happening right now?  

If you look at almost any metric (blockchain.info wallets, Coinbase merchants, r/bitcoin subscribers, bitcoinqt downloads) they all show that adoption continues to rapidly grow.  Based on this alone, would you not expect the price to also be rising right now?  

Of course, the reason the price isn't rising is that these new people buying in are balanced by hodlers cashing out (to varying degrees).    

People who bought $500 worth of bitcoin in December are thinking: "hmm, I could really see this bitcoin idea taking off, now that I understand it.  I'd like to invest another $5000 over the next few month."

Meanwhile, people who invested $5000 over this last summer are now sitting on near $40,000 of value.  Perhaps a lot are in their 20s and this is now 80% of all their money.  They are thinking: "hmm, I'm more confident than even in bitcoin but maybe I should diversify a bit more, because nothing is a guaranteed bet."

I think this is exactly the same dynamic that took place after the April growth spurt too.  Eventually, all the people sitting on large gains have done enough soul-searching and sleepless nights that they've divested that magic amount that allows them to sleep soundly.  

Yet new people keep entering the market, and newbies keep increasing their positions.  

And then we see the next leg up.....

unfortunately it's a question I don't think can be feasibly answered, more rhetorical than anything. But still, I wonder how much is left of the Bitcoin sliver that needs to be sold & bought before bear capitulation (pending prior bull capitulation of course) and how much volume of fiat is on the sidelines


i thought the point of Bitcoin was that it was antifragile, idk.

you are referring to Bitcoin as a venture?
I see you and I count profit in different ways. I am trying to maximize profit from a venture that may or may not be crashing into the underground and with it, state prevalence back to underground local levels.

At some point, the goal may not be about owning as many Bitcoins as possible, but maximising profit from a venture that government action around the world could bring to an abrupt halt, or at least send crashing back into the underground and with it, the Bitcoin price back to underground levels.

i've heard this during every single consolidation period we've had since the climb from 2 back to 32 in 2011-12
there does come a point where those guys you speak of, the whales, will not need any more capital from bitcoin to necessitate the risk of selling out more than trivial amounts, where the risk of not being in bitcoin outweighs said selling


I wish there were statistics on the performance of those dumpers you speak of. I wonder how many were able to buy back more bitcoins than they sold

I am a relative small fry who never actually got into Bitcoin on a speculative basis until the $700 range in Nov. I missed the boat. Clearly my capital is going to be a lot more sensitive to the potential for downside volatility. It is the likes of me, whether with a large or small ball of capital to roll around, whose investment Bitcoin needs to attract to really get up to the next level. But at this point in time, I am not convinced.

But you are correct. It is not Johnny Come Lately bears that you have to fear for causing a Bitcoin landslide. It is the Bitcoiner at the exact opposite end of the scale that you need to concern yourself with. I read that only 3% of all Bitcoins are in regular circulation. The rest hoarded. About half of them owned by just 49 early adopter whales. These whales, whoever they are, will know very well that Bitcoin is hyperinflated on the back of limited supply being combined with the surge of interest from China, which is being brought to an abrupt halt. Even at $800, these guys know that Bitcoin is wildly overvalued. It will just take one of the these guys to get nervous or break ranks and make a grab for gold (Bitcoin is not gold, USD is gold) and this market will take exactly the same kind of slaughtering that any hyper ramped penny stock market takes when the early investors/ ramp masters decide to close their position.

At this point in time, I believe that there is a very strong possibility of this sort of scenario playing out and the market would have to convince me emphatically otherwise, in order for me to change my outlook and feel confident in a long position. I imagine that most new wise money to Bitcoin feels the exact same, which is perhaps why a 'final capitulation' needs to happen.

curious, how did you get into bitcoin? was it anyone in particular you know?

better question actually, did anyone learn about bitcoins from you?

and what do you tell them when they ask you if they should buy/sell their coins?
hold?

do they typically do as you say, perhaps out of trust?

-considering subnetwork effects of culture
my subnetwork typically trusts me more than they trust bitcoin is why I ask

The folks who only read about mining, or politics, on this forum will mostly be holders, quietly and mildly bullish, or flippers, quietly and mildly bearish.  They won't swing with momentum much if at all.  The speculators who read here will be quite bimodally distributed, prone to reverse at the worst time, and the speculators who don't read here will be somewhat more diffusely distributed.

if you bears here have already sold and are publicly talking about it, how many are left to keep/bring the price down considering their upside risk? panicking hodlers i could see, but even then the crowd has been disciplined enough (i see it in the crowd around me, selection bias possibility i know) with bitcoin's past wild price movements. it's just an expectation for people buying into bitcoin  nowadays.  I also suspect that it is becoming more obviously apparent that bitcoin is a superior store of wealth as compared to fiat, so the incentive to hold/buy in has never been stronger. is purchase demand really not that strong enough to support seller demands above 400? I simply find the idea a bit dramatic is all, considering rising user counts (per Mr. Pietila's research) and the 12.x million Bitcoins outstanding

just trying to assess and weigh buyer and seller flows

Mobile wallets don't require downloading 

I am 0% in Bitcoin at the moment, because I am essentially a bear for the near term. However, I pulled my latest short bet as:

A) Fk all is happening for the time being.

B) I could see Bitcoin taking a surge upwards as the Bitcoin Nutters pile in on the back of some 'good news' or whale manipulated bullish signals, inspiring widespread confidence and investment to rush into Bitcoin, at which point some whale(s) looking to actually turn a sizeable chunk of of his digital code into actual spendable wealth will pull the trigger and smash a shit load of coins into rabidly aggressive bid walls on markets all over, maximising yield of USD but turning the tide on Bitcoin horribly.

Bitcoins rapid rise in 'value' is based largely on restricted supply. It is a cornered market and the Bitcoin whales know this and know what they need to do to make sure they maximise their benefit from it.

This is perhaps a bit of a wild theory, but as a bear, I do not trust right now to be a good time to be short Bitcoin, but a bear I have to remain because my gut tells me that I have got to be at this point in time in addition to my Tech Analysis 101 skills adding weight to the bearish case by the day, especially the break down from the 3 week long descending triangle a few days ago.

I am not just bearish, I sense that there is going to be a slaughter. I am musing over the idea of Bitcoin taking a ostensible bullish leap forward before the bloodbath, simply because this would be the absolutely most brutal scenario that could possibly play out, and the Bitcoin world is a ruthless cut-throat shark infested world.

Bitcoin......run and dominated by 'libertarian lovers of freedom'?

Not in the world that I live in it aint.

Yes.  The question is when to take profit though.  I figure as long as you have only invested what you can afford to lose 100% of, the risk is fairly low keeping it in there, especially with so much potential gains in the future.  We have had to sell some coins during the past couple of months.  We really wanted to keep them in there for at least a year because long-term capital gains are a little less brutal when doing taxes, but things come up.  But it is wise to have a plan for sure.

I'm very bullish thru 2015, a bit less thru 2017. After that I am concerned about the size of the blockchain if Moore's law/equipment cannot keep up. Can't really see new people adopting if they need to download for a week. Ironically, the oldtimers/devs will be so rich by then they may not even care about fixing the issue.

INFIDEL!!!

Maybe. But it's always good to take some profit off the table, especially to recover initial investment. The long term moon scenario is not guaranteed.

Then tomorrow and the 31st should be interesting.  There may be some people that decide to jump in before others and buy because they realize that the price is not dependent on China at this point.  I think that those that wanted to get out of Bitcoin in China already have.  We saw a big drop after the announcement of the 31st deadline so the price has probably already been factored in for that.  Now we are in a state of limbo because of all of the talk about the the price dropping but most people that believe in Bitcoin want coins not fiat in the long run so they will have to buy back at some point.

There are those that are now perfectly content "cashing out" of course.  The earliest adopters here are in a much more comfortable place then us "late comers" but patience is a virtue.   I have come to realize that it is so much easier not to panic the longer one is in Bitcoin.  We have seen the ups and downs and have realized it all works out in the end. 

I also have the impression that the bear camp is bigger right now. If this is true, we will probably see a rise in the price in february when all bears want to buy back in.

It's funny, so many bitcoiners focused on the date of Jan. 31st, but little do they know it's for all the wrong reasons.  Can't see the Chinese forest for the trees.

Do people with no eye on what's happening in the emerging markets really think that the Chinese government would put an arbitrary date of Jan. 31st, 2014, the announcement almost 2 months ahead of schedule, because they were focused on suspending bank withdrawals for.... just bitcoin?  Really?  Really??

China will be suspending bank withdrawals from Jan 31st to about Feb 7th, and it has little do with the bitcoin market.  It's just coincidental that it would effect bitcoin purchasing as well. Just do the research online and you'll find out why.  

Well most people I know who are into bitcoin are at least 50% in fiat waiting for the whole China thing to pass. This may or may not be representative for all bitcoin holders and traders but I do feel that this is the general sentiment right now. I'm not claiming that bears will panic buy immediately when nothing happens after the 31st, but I don't think this whole consolidation period will last longer than a couple more weeks at most. We'll see.

I'm actually not sure about that. It's something bulls keep repeating (followed by the "bears will panic buy after nothing happens on the 31st" prediction), but it's not so obvious to me.