rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 344.

rpietila

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Quote from: MatTheCat on January 27, 2014, 04:26:23 PM

I shorted (leveraged out my tits of course) at 817, I hid my stop loss at 821, behind a 1500 strong ask wall at 820.

Problem was that I had earlier made a thread when Bitcoin was at 790, stating to go long Bitcoin until 815-820, then short Bitcoin. I got in the usual heated debates with the usual bull-tards that are only capable of seeing up the way, but I was pretty certain I was on to a winner here. I went out for a walk, came back in, and was incredulous at this sudden totally irrational and unforseeable volume spike pushing Bitcoin up to the 830s.

As you may imagine, both my prediction thread and my inbox was flooded with 'well-wishers' congratulating me on my 'pro-call'

I am currently short, but I was gambling on the 765 support not holding (which it didn't), but the 750 Ask wall on Stamp slipped totally from my memory. I am still in the green, but no dazzling gains to speak off.

Yes it was quite hilarious that my totally unbullish action in Gox sparked the other whale to panic and the herd in Stamp followed and your prediction failed as bitcoin gained 5%, whatisit - 500 million dollars market cap.. <3 Bitcoin Cool

Btw I had a BTC400 ask wall in Stamp in 750 but pulled it when it crashed towards it. Actually should have kept it in place though...

I'm actually thinking that we could possibly see a crash of 20% starting from 815 in the next 24 hours. Anything smaller than that I would not buy as bitcoin is in a precarious position.

MatTheCat

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Quote from: rpietila on January 27, 2014, 01:29:33 PM

LOL, I suppose you covered it at a loss then Roll Eyes

It is dropping like a stone as we speak..

Perhaps it's good time to forget the worries and celebrate the fact that we have 2 million bitcoin users in the world!

I shorted (leveraged out my tits of course) at 817, I hid my stop loss at 821, behind a 1500 strong ask wall at 820.

Problem was that I had earlier made a thread when Bitcoin was at 790, stating to go long Bitcoin until 815-820, then short Bitcoin. I got in the usual heated debates with the usual bull-tards that are only capable of seeing up the way, but I was pretty certain I was on to a winner here. I went out for a walk, came back in, and was incredulous at this sudden totally irrational and unforseeable volume spike pushing Bitcoin up to the 830s.

As you may imagine, both my prediction thread and my inbox was flooded with 'well-wishers' congratulating me on my 'pro-call'

I am currently short, but I was gambling on the 765 support not holding (which it didn't), but the 750 Ask wall on Stamp slipped totally from my memory. I am still in the green, but no dazzling gains to speak off.

rpietila

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Quote from: phoenix1 on January 27, 2014, 03:51:37 PM

Quote from: rpietila on January 27, 2014, 03:39:06 PM

There was no plan, I lost 22% on conversion (well the net loss was less because it had always been higher there), and I did not dump anything, nor arrested Charlie Shrem. I am on the sell side now, because I see no upside during the week but the risk of a real crash is higher than ever. This is one of the rare times that I sell pre-emptively with the intention to buy back even at a slight loss if nothing materializes.

I hear you
And you didn't ban BTC in Russia either right ? Cheesy

No comments on the last one Wink

And yes of course I was able to buy back the coins higher in the following rally, but that does not change the fact that the whole operation was a loss of quite a sad magnitude...

proudhon

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Quote from: rpietila on January 27, 2014, 04:07:45 PM

Quote from: proudhon on January 27, 2014, 04:01:35 PM

Why not SHOTR, rpietila, as it has never been clearer that bitcoin is going to be worth much less than it is now. Using our proven martingale maxleverage SHOTR strategy you could become even more wealthy, as is confirmed by our facts and all the bad and confirmed news.

I am with the Most Eminent Highness Crytpo Majesty Goat, in that I never short. Selling 3% is about the most definite statement of bitcoin's current overvaluation that I can bear to execute.

May God have mercy on your soul.

rpietila

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Quote from: proudhon on January 27, 2014, 04:01:35 PM

Why not SHOTR, rpietila, as it has never been clearer that bitcoin is going to be worth much less than it is now. Using our proven martingale maxleverage SHOTR strategy you could become even more wealthy, as is confirmed by our facts and all the bad and confirmed news.

I am with the Most Eminent Highness Crytpo Majesty Goat, in that I never short. Selling 3% is about the most definite statement of bitcoin's current overvaluation that I can bear to execute.

proudhon

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Quote from: rpietila on January 27, 2014, 03:39:06 PM

Quote from: phoenix1 on January 27, 2014, 03:29:43 PM

Haha .. nice confession! And probably a smart move, if a little on the late side. That ship is sinking ...

So was the plan to start a stampede and cash out on another exchange after it chased Gox up ? (Good idea )
And was it you that dumped after this failed to materialise and we got a dose of bad news today instead ? (Probably another good idea)

Or something else .... Huh

There was no plan, I lost 22% on conversion (well the net loss was less because it had always been higher there), and I did not dump anything, nor arrested Charlie Shrem. I am on the sell side now, because I see no upside during the week but the risk of a real crash is higher than ever. This is one of the rare times that I sell pre-emptively with the intention to buy back even at a slight loss if nothing materializes.

Why not SHOTR, rpietila, as it has never been clearer that bitcoin is going to be worth much less than it is now. Using our proven martingale maxleverage SHOTR strategy you could become even more wealthy, as is confirmed by our facts and all the bad and confirmed news.

phoenix1

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Quote from: rpietila on January 27, 2014, 03:39:06 PM

Quote from: phoenix1 on January 27, 2014, 03:29:43 PM

Haha .. nice confession! And probably a smart move, if a little on the late side. That ship is sinking ...

So was the plan to start a stampede and cash out on another exchange after it chased Gox up ? (Good idea )
And was it you that dumped after this failed to materialise and we got a dose of bad news today instead ? (Probably another good idea)

Or something else .... Huh

There was no plan, I lost 22% on conversion (well the net loss was less because it had always been higher there), and I did not dump anything, nor arrested Charlie Shrem. I am on the sell side now, because I see no upside during the week but the risk of a real crash is higher than ever. This is one of the rare times that I sell pre-emptively with the intention to buy back even at a slight loss if nothing materializes.

I hear you
And you didn't ban BTC in Russia either right ? Cheesy

rpietila

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Quote from: phoenix1 on January 27, 2014, 03:29:43 PM

Haha .. nice confession! And probably a smart move, if a little on the late side. That ship is sinking ...

So was the plan to start a stampede and cash out on another exchange after it chased Gox up ? (Good idea )
And was it you that dumped after this failed to materialise and we got a dose of bad news today instead ? (Probably another good idea)

Or something else .... Huh

There was no plan, I lost 22% on conversion (well the net loss was less because it had always been higher there), and I did not dump anything, nor arrested Charlie Shrem. I am on the sell side now, because I see no upside during the week but the risk of a real crash is higher than ever. This is one of the rare times that I sell pre-emptively with the intention to buy back even at a slight loss if nothing materializes.

phoenix1

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Haha .. nice confession! And probably a smart move, if a little on the late side. That ship is sinking ...

So was the plan to start a stampede and cash out on another exchange after it chased Gox up ? (Good idea )
And was it you that dumped after this failed to materialise and we got a dose of bad news today instead ? (Probably another good idea)

Or something else .... Huh

rpietila

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Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: MatTheCat on January 27, 2014, 12:50:52 PM

So it was you who soiled my short sell that looked such a surefire bet!?

Interesting to know!

LOL, I suppose you covered it at a loss then Roll Eyes

It is dropping like a stone as we speak..

Perhaps it's good time to forget the worries and celebrate the fact that we have 2 million bitcoin users in the world!

MatTheCat

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Quote from: rpietila on January 27, 2014, 12:12:22 PM

Now: Arturo Fuente Figurado abt 10cm. I have lately enjoyed the short ones.

The rally yesterday was unfortunately caused by me Embarrassed

I was trying to negotiate a withdrawal of EUR 300k from Mt.Gox. Due to their troubles, it seemed that I would not receive the money on time so I had to buy back the coins. I purposely used a market order because many people were understandably watching critically the widening spread and I wanted to get out before there would be a stampede.

The stampede actually did happen

But now the situation is under control and the spread is back in manageable levels. That's why I share this with you. From this perspective the subsequent rally in Bitstamp and others was entirely ill-founded, and funny to watch.

It is not really technical analysis, but there does not seem to be any momentum to get ahead. Typically these situations end with an accelerating crash, rather than picking up of the momentum. But we'll see, portfolios well balanced!

So it was you who soiled my short sell that looked such a surefire bet!?

Interesting to know!

rpietila

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Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Now: Arturo Fuente Figurado abt 10cm. I have lately enjoyed the short ones.

The rally yesterday was unfortunately caused by me Embarrassed

I was trying to negotiate a withdrawal of EUR 300k from Mt.Gox. Due to their troubles, it seemed that I would not receive the money on time so I had to buy back the coins. I purposely used a market order because many people were understandably watching critically the widening spread and I wanted to get out before there would be a stampede.

The stampede actually did happen

But now the situation is under control and the spread is back in manageable levels. That's why I share this with you. From this perspective the subsequent rally in Bitstamp and others was entirely ill-founded, and funny to watch.

It is not really technical analysis, but there does not seem to be any momentum to get ahead. Typically these situations end with an accelerating crash, rather than picking up of the momentum. But we'll see, portfolios well balanced!

kehtolo

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Great, so more or less as i was thinking then.

Thanks for clearing that up for me.

rpietila

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Quote from: kehtolo on January 26, 2014, 01:30:21 PM

rpietila - when you speak of final capitulation, it sounds kind of drastic.
I'm imagining you are not saying we're going to zero, as this wouldn't fit with any of your long term predictions.
And that rather, you just mean the final leg down to the bottom in order to complete the whole series of moves down from the double top.

At which stage we begin a new rally? Am i correct so far?
How long does it take, and how far down does it go?

Have you any links to threads where maybe you discuss this final capitulation in detail?

Thanks in advance.

Final capitulation is the consummation of the downtrend that started from the double top. After that the new uptrend will start, and we will make a new ATH.

It is possible that we already saw it in Dec 18th but I think it's yet to come. It is not necessarily the lowest price point (382 so far), but certainly below 600, perhaps even 300.

I don't know if there is a thread on this alone

kehtolo

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rpietila - when you speak of final capitulation, it sounds kind of drastic.
I'm imagining you are not saying we're going to zero, as this wouldn't fit with any of your long term predictions.
And that rather, you just mean the final leg down to the bottom in order to complete the whole series of moves down from the double top.

At which stage we begin a new rally? Am i correct so far?
How long does it take, and how far down does it go?

Have you any links to threads where maybe you discuss this final capitulation in detail?

Thanks in advance.

hdbuck

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Quote from: rpietila on January 26, 2014, 11:39:40 AM

Quote from: pietje on January 26, 2014, 11:23:17 AM

Quote from: rpietila on January 25, 2014, 09:58:14 AM

Quote from: rpietila on January 25, 2014, 06:19:54 AM

Quote from: rpietila on January 07, 2014, 03:27:40 AM

Quote from: Pruden on January 06, 2014, 07:18:50 PM

Bulls circle-jerk, people confusing the traditional early-month, fresh-paycheck-money rally for the super-exponential trendline, bid sum decreasing because of panic buying and price at double the long-term trendline (the one that takes into account the 2011 bubble, unlike the super-exponential one, that picks the best possible moment as the start)...

Yeah, this will look like the most epic double top if we spend here 2 weeks and then turn down Wink

It's becoming true... Shocked

The forums are getting silent also.. I think the scenario for a final capitulation in February/March is in full force.

Forums is pretty busy atm now that there is movement again. Stabilising means less activity on forum, has nothing to do with a final capitulation.

The final capitulation will commence when it's evident that we cannot break the ATH again. With or without news.

If we do break it, though, there will not be capitulation as we know it. Simple.

The evidence so far points to the coming capitulation. One bad news can cut bitcoin in half now.

that is exactly my feeling too. the point is people still believe in a non stop rally until it hits $1M.. anyway yeay to 'cheap' coins!
+1 sir

rpietila

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Quote from: pietje on January 26, 2014, 11:23:17 AM

Quote from: rpietila on January 25, 2014, 09:58:14 AM

Quote from: rpietila on January 25, 2014, 06:19:54 AM

Quote from: rpietila on January 07, 2014, 03:27:40 AM

Quote from: Pruden on January 06, 2014, 07:18:50 PM

Bulls circle-jerk, people confusing the traditional early-month, fresh-paycheck-money rally for the super-exponential trendline, bid sum decreasing because of panic buying and price at double the long-term trendline (the one that takes into account the 2011 bubble, unlike the super-exponential one, that picks the best possible moment as the start)...

Yeah, this will look like the most epic double top if we spend here 2 weeks and then turn down Wink

It's becoming true... Shocked

The forums are getting silent also.. I think the scenario for a final capitulation in February/March is in full force.

Forums is pretty busy atm now that there is movement again. Stabilising means less activity on forum, has nothing to do with a final capitulation.

The final capitulation will commence when it's evident that we cannot break the ATH again. With or without news.

If we do break it, though, there will not be capitulation as we know it. Simple.

The evidence so far points to the coming capitulation. One bad news can cut bitcoin in half now.

pietje

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Quote from: rpietila on January 25, 2014, 09:58:14 AM

Quote from: rpietila on January 25, 2014, 06:19:54 AM

Quote from: rpietila on January 07, 2014, 03:27:40 AM

Quote from: Pruden on January 06, 2014, 07:18:50 PM

Bulls circle-jerk, people confusing the traditional early-month, fresh-paycheck-money rally for the super-exponential trendline, bid sum decreasing because of panic buying and price at double the long-term trendline (the one that takes into account the 2011 bubble, unlike the super-exponential one, that picks the best possible moment as the start)...

Yeah, this will look like the most epic double top if we spend here 2 weeks and then turn down Wink

It's becoming true... Shocked

The forums are getting silent also.. I think the scenario for a final capitulation in February/March is in full force.

Forums is pretty busy atm now that there is movement again. Stabilising means less activity on forum, has nothing to do with a final capitulation.

kkaspar

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banned but not broken

Quote from: rpietila on January 23, 2014, 07:24:06 AM

I have already vacated most of my time, so the next thing to do, is to make it count for more by establishing a physical community with a congress centre in Estonia.

I would certainly visit this physical community, because I'm estonian, but I don't think that Estonia is the best place to build this community. Estonians are skeptical people and the physical community would increase their doubts on the cultish behavior that they see regarding BTC.
There was a lot of interest regarding BTC among estonians, but it didn't become very popular here. Most people here consider BTC as an scam because of the distribution issues and the transparency issues with the market system.
Mostly people here see me as an "enemy of bitcoin" who doesn't like the choo choo chanting of the religious zaelots. But when dealing with fellow Estonians, then I'm being taken as an idealistic fool when I tell them that there actually is a future in privatized monetary systems

LOADING.READY.RUN

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Quote from: pa on January 25, 2014, 05:32:51 PM

I think the most important thing one could do to improve the world is purchase large media outlets (television, newspapers, websites) and install upper management that is committed to telling the truth without fear to expose the corruption at the heart of bankster-run governments. Waking up the people from their slumber is crucial.

Yeah, let's start bitcoin totalitarianism. As much as I want to see the banksters' influence wane and encourage an open and really free press, it sends shivers down my spine to read "install upper management" and "telling the truth". It's usually the first step from a bad government to an even worse government when a small group of people wants to dictate the truth by installing their likes in the media channel and suppressing other opinions.

Freedom of speech FTW!

Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 344. (Read 907212 times)