Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 343. (Read 907227 times)

You're delusional. The bear camp is way bigger than the bull camp right now. Mainly because of China and the Jan 31st deadline.

What bears? Although price has slid -20% in 3 weeks with no sign to the better, the bear camp is almost empty. Imagine the hooray from bull camp if the price had gone up this much in this time.. This way you know the relative numbers of each.

or bulls will panic sell when they see nothing happens on the 31st

bears will buy back after they see nothing happens on the 31st

When "everyone" thinks it will go down, the reverse happens. Right now the number of actual bears is quite small. There is much bear-ridicule though. That is a sign that the bulls are nervous.

Fact is that price has been sliding down for 3+ weeks, making 4-5 lower highs and the recent lower low. Nobody is buying.

A sudden massive influx of new money would make it a CCMF now. Otherwise, next week or the one after, the most nervous of the bulls will pull the trigger and the capitulation will start.

Another thing is that because it's been taking so long, the ones who sold in anticipation of a buyback have started wasting the money For example I have taken more and more out of the exchange. The hopes of the bulls, that bears will capitulate and start buying at these levels are delusional. It has not happened so far and will not happen. My buyback level has not budged from $400.

It seems the hours passed and we're still there. However, it's interesting to watch everyone on the tip of their toes with the mouse cursors above the "Sell" button, just because there's a prediction of a price decline initiated in China. That lingers in the air and my honest opinion is that China will not initiate this. They might follow if Stamp / BTCe starts the downtrend, but I'm thinking that the odds they actually starting it are diminishing by the hour.
That doesn't mean it won't happen - you can actually feel the tension - it's palpable - and it might happen "just because" everyone's expecting it, without a clear reason; If the news from Russia did this much to destabilize the market, the bears will wake up at the first alarm their smartphones will trigger at the slightest price drop.

However, the question goes backwards: everybody's so eager to sell these days, will they be as eager (if not more) to buy back after the 1st ? 

I was talking about the buy panic in Gox and later BS. You seem to talk about the start of the crash

I actually think that crash started on BTC-e (at least according to BTC-e) - about 10-12 minutes before there was several sells up to 1100 BTC and prices passed 800 mark into 785.  Though in the next several minutes price went back to 800 but it was on low volume, and then ?coordinated? (better say bot reaction?) crash started on all stocks. And for my surprise Gox not crashed for too low.

What volume did you sold?

not trying to argue, just asking/wondering

I fear missing an evaluation event = 10 x when in Fiat far more than a devaluation of BTC, for this reason I find it very hard to sell BTC from an objective view point

well not really, see individuals do not really hold that much wealth compered to the state, and state instituions. It takes over a trillion $ a year just to keep NY state education system going, See Mr. Bloomberg on point when he responded that his wealth was just a drop in the bucket, if that in response to why he did not just fix the state education system. As Bloomberg said people do not comprehend the scale of public monies. For example Bill Gates has collected $10 off everyone for a OS, which is really nothing compared to your daily cost of living every day, day after day. The redistribution of the private wealth is like changing a round error to the distribution of wealth. The problem is people have been educated to look at the "new gods" gates, Zberg, Jobs" and aspire to be and are told to aspire. This is the biggest lie ever. In fact there are many people smarter and harder working, it just came down to being in the right place at the right time. If Jobs was born and lived in siberia, it wasn't going to happen.

The idols are held out to perpetrate the myth that you too can achieve this sort of wealth or even a minute fraction of it if you work hard, come up with an idea. This message is made out in many way some overt some subtle, eg school, movies continually tell you you can win out, and be what you want. The reality is the system is completely stacked against you, by historical advantages, vested interests, and  quota systems of Unversity as state regualtors from fields licensed fields of work, mainly in health, which in fact eats up perhaps the largest share of Govt spending in many countries, in combination with education.

There is so much in error, the more I look the F....ked up it is.

Orwells comment

"If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever."

has never been more true, except it is worse than he imagined. The boot turned out to be invisible, so you can see everything you cannot have, and are told that you have to much. You are told you are free and so it is your fault, the government provided the freedom so you made your own choice, the government thus has no blame.

The Justice sustem is a farce, excluding the majority in many ways.

Look at books like "afluenza" complete rubbish, we get trinkets, plastic crap, yes too much of that. The real value things however health care, houses, access to opportunity become less obtainable every passing year. And they are so easy to solve. Eg why oh why we do not learn medicine as a core subject for ages 8 - 18 would allow us to treat ourselves much more competently than any GP could ever hope to. The saving by prevention would be massive. It would be the biggest leap forward in human health probably ever.

Bitcoin at 1 million a coin, will still not be that much, but it will be a start. Consider that Forex in London does 1.6T day and about twice that globally a day.

Consider that every venture to date has required someone stand infront of a bank, or the already wealthy and beg/obtain money. Gates, Zberg, Jobs and any one else you care to name all relied on a bank somewhere or the already wealth to give them FIAT, gold or whatever to get of the Ground, except of course Satoshi. What Satoshi has done, is incalculable. I think some one else would have hit upon a solution eventually, but the idea of "satoshi" rather than the individual. This is the closet think we have had in a long time to self actualisation and escaping from the invisible boot, and also the invisible hand, the latter because we will all become the invisible hand. At 1 million the transfer of wealth occurs in the private sphere. The interesting thing a good proportion of those who first got in and held to this point will be the type to actually make the whole system stronger.  Bitcoin is uniquely self reinforcing, in a way nothing else has been. I am not saying Bitcoin will do it, it could be an alt, but the idea is out, and proven to be be able to go to $10B Mkt cap. Just a few years ago this would have been laughed at by everyone who "knew". This is a watershed for human history, it will probably go down in history as one of the most pivotal moments.

Welcome to Bitcoin post Dec 5th 2013!

Also higher volumes are there. But the 1D chart still shows lower highs and lower lows. Could it be that new money is not really coming in at all / the volume is only caused by the same players on exchanges swapping coins over and over, trying to outsmart each other?

Do you feel that Mt Gox withdrawal issues are temporary? Curious to know whether the 300K withdrawal was prompted by the withdrawal issues, or whether it was merely a part of your trading strategy?


Thanks.

11.26M to $500, things have started moving. 

Nice work 

I heard that they had quite many problems with that last weekend. I decided to help the community with my statistics.

FTFY

Agreed. But its continued existence makes many a mockery of most of the BTC 'buy-lines'.
No transparency. Probable insolvency. Holding funds hostage. Suspected fractional reserve banking/outright fraud etc etc

Gox is the antithesis of what BTC is supposed to be about and the bigger BTC gets in the public eye, the bigger the hit it will take when Gox goes, which it will. Better sooner than later so that people have time to forget.

Lest we get stuck in exactly the same trap as the legacy system of not being able to take the blows on the chin and burying everything under the carpet until there is a mountain in the living room.

Even though Gox has shrunken significantly the combination of the public perception that it sets the actual BTC price combined with the erroneous conception that it is the leading exchange makes it's eventual demise possibly painful for us...

Fair play to you for taking the hit and pulling out of Gox - this blight on the BTC ecosystem needs to go down. I am assuming from your words that you have taken cashed out completely. Did you receive the BTC without problems ?

+1, but...

From this stage of the market, with a mild bear market like in 2013, rpietila can expect to lose 50% of his coins' value until the bottom of wave C.
He probably can afford that, and if he and his friends would sell all now, the slippage would be terrible and crash the markets to single digits.
So far there is not enough information to estimate the severity of the bear market, only further price drops will set a clear path.
IMO only a very bearish event, comparable in magnitude to the hacking of MtGox in 2011, could result in a bear market of that severity.