Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 65. (Read 907212 times)

I requested AnonyMint be closed (didn't think of the fact that I could just scramble my password) which Theymos apparently granted, because at the time I was so ill with debilitating Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (accompanies migraines and abdominal pain too which makes concentration impossible) and I was wasting the precious little productive time I had writing in a forum instead of coding. Also I think a reputation is a crutch for the incapable. I hence dropped (or set aside) my feeble effort on an altcoin and began programming an Android contacts and messaging privacy application (which of course I could also leverage to kickstart an altcoin perhaps) so I can shore up my finances given my silver and gold has been partially stolen from me (I at one time had 18,000 ounces of physical silver and yes I was placing sell orders from $48 down and was entirely out in the high $20s, but never received some of the proceeds). The #1 competitor in the Android app category I have chosen has 10 million downloads and charges $10 annual license fee. My past experience with download software is roughly a 2 - 5% conversion rate, so they must be earning in excess of $1 million annually. Their app is missing many features. Shouldn't be difficult to shore up my dwindling savings (hopefully by January). In spite of being in danger financially, I continue to do several $100s of charity each month in the Philippines (for which I have retained all the padala money transfer receipts for the donations I haven't given in cash personally).

Fraud is rampant.

I scrambled the passwords of TheFascistMind and other recent usernames trying to discipline myself to not waste time on the forum.

UnunoctiumTesticles was banned last week and I suspect Rpietila may have played a role in that, but I have no proof only a suspicion. I tried to sign up another username and it was immediately banned. I took a breather and then signed up contagion making sure my first post was too important to ban.

P.S. rpietila all the other usernames were mine, and you didn't pay the 2.5 BTC and defrauded the written contract you made in PM with TheFascistMind. I thought BCX's threat was real. It was only after I made that effort that I realized he was bluffing. I did not act in bad faith nor dishonestly.


P.S.S. It is important to understand that we hackers don't really focus on storing money. That is not where our mind is most of the time. So that among other details such where I am located, will explain for example why 18,000 oz of silver was not stored in my possession. Precious metals are clearly a dinosaur. They are too debilitating and cumbersome.

Other people are trying to appear as AnonyMint. This was first found out with the BCX-XMR debate, where we concluded that all the major other actors were bought accounts, or impostors, and played by one group. Why on earth? That's still to be found out. At least Monero price is down so the attack did accomplish something, although I doubt it would have been much different anyway.

anyone know the people running btc38?

PM me

Hi,

Anonymint, how come you keep switching usernames when posting on this forum?  You have some interesting ideas you contribute and posing under all these different usernames makes it somewhat difficult to find your previous posts.

Cheers!

W.

My estimate is the odds favor another bubble in Bitcoin eventually and thus ditto Monero.

The blackswan is a radical shift in crypto-currency due to some paradigm shift. Although odds appears to be low because for example we know how much work it is to deliver and we are reasonably cognizant of the genre of features that could be possible so it is unlikely we would be surprised, we also have to remember the motivation is potentially astronomical, yet also is the risk.

It is very difficult to appraise that blackswan risk. I think the bet on the next bubble and Monero leading the anonymous sector remains a reasonable and rational bet (given that only ring sigs meet the End-to-End principle and only they are potentially Sybil attack resistant, but as you know I find fault in current Cryptonote coins in this regard). But do remember it is not a 100% certainty.

I agree the 99% catastrophic, binary outcome for Monero seems to be more hate (or envy) than logic. I don't even know if I could weight the blackswan at 1% probability and I even have an inside vantage point on one possible unlikely entrant.

However, I am disappointed with Monero because I don't think it will be sufficient to deal with what is coming (for many reasons and smooth is aware of some of my logic). See my latest post in the Mad Max thread. This is getting very ominous. I realize you can only do what you can do. So all the ranting I could do isn't worth as much as those who build what they can.

P.S. my 5% probability estimate on Monero reaching a million users within 2 years incorporates very rough intuitive gut feel at the probability of timely improvements to Monero.

Are you suggesting that it is better to ignore me ? ... I know, you can scam more people if they will follow your advices blindly

> well-defined "survival".
550% adoption per year. ... not free fall to zero (0.0001).

Not if the code doesn't even work because catastrophic bugs are uncovered and no one is maintaining it.

In any case I see no reason to belabor this. You already said you estimate a 5% chance of a million users, so clearly you must think there is far more than a 1% chance that it exists at all (maybe we define that as 5000+ users, which of course would include the 1m user case).

I think the original claim was trolling or if sincere then the oddsmaker is a terribly inept one. Either way not worth much attention.

That is meaningless, because any one can make some nodes.

Even an exchange price is meaningless if all the volume is controlled by parties who want to prove the market cap is still above some level. As it approaches non-existence, such control is plausible.

I stand by my logic that it is ambiguous unless further qualified.

Immediately when I read "exist", I visualized an infinite asymptote. Existence is impossible to disprove (physics and philosophy) akin to the block chain fundamental that one can prove a transaction exists after a certain date of consensus, but it can't proved when the transaction did not exist.


It is something the project leader should have an estimate of. I am not saying you are the project leader. I am not sure if there exists a project leader for Monero, based on the way you and others have emphasized autonomy from each other, but I can not disprove it unless I am omniscient.

It isn't really ambiguous. It's a English word that has a pretty well defined meaning. Any nodes or any users still using it, or something very close to that.

As far as another bet on a million users or something, i don't have a strong opinion on it, so no reason to bet. I just have an opinion on 1% to exist in two years and that is absurdly low, essentially a trolling statement  (which I guess worked).

It sure is.  I think this guy is multi-polar

When the price of gold goes down but it's relative value has gone up, that is deflationary pain at its greatest.

The discussed bet about Monero is ambiguous. Define the "exist" metric.

A more interesting bet is the probability that Monero will have 1 million users within 2 years, but we have no way to measure it precisely do we?

Going from 0 to 1 million users in 2 years is quite realistic for even a moderately popular niche software. I know because I accomplished that from launching CoolPage in late 1998 (which was just a niche WYSIWYG web page editor for n00bs) and attaining 335,000 confirmed websites (as reported by altavista.com) by roughly 2000 and 600,000+ confirmed downloads from just one of the major download sites. And this was when the internet was 1/10 of its current population.

My estimate would be roughly 5% chance for Monero to achieve that (i.e. I can't even get to the unlikely side of the first order of the Pareto principle, rather my estimate is the second-order Pareto case). But if I bet, I would want sufficiently more favorable odds, because there is no benefit to placing a bet at fair (ly appraised) odds.

What are your estimates?

Edit: my estimate is based on not being aware of any plan to put a feature in Monero that would target a popular enough niche market. If there is such a plan that I am unaware of, my estimate could possibly change.

Bet dirty money? No way! Shoes on head are more fun. But it's okay, I understand.

no, since i'm not an exhibitionist, but I'm open to bet 0.10 btc on bitbet.

How much you wanna bet? Lets not bet money however. I was thinking that, if on 12-31-2015 23:59 GMT+0 all nations that are currently using the Euro as national currency still use it you will post a picture of yourself with a shoe on your head. If, instead, at least a nation has relinquished the Euro i'll post a picture of myself with two (2) shoes on my head. Deal?

A more interesting bet would be on the survival of the Euro as it is in terms of participant states beyond 2015.

Survival of Monero over a time span of 2 years is about 100%
Even Bytecoin (the real 1:1 clone of Bitcoin) still exists. Barring a catastrophic issue with the software, it just won't die so soon.

True, but I would make the bet even if I had no influence over the survival.

1% is just a stupid assessment of the probability of survival.

Posting on a forum is cheap talk. I'm pretty sure if Odalv were actually making a bet with his own money, 1% would not be his estimate.

This reminds me why Odalv is on my ignore list. There has to be something seriously wrong in the logic of the guy if he can reconcile the following statements:

- Monero has 1% chance of survival
- smooth and rpietila together can cause its survival
- smooth and rpietila want to cause its survival.

I would understand if the coin's survival was an external event, like whether it rains or not. I don't have a haarpoon so cannot control it. But Monero's survival is just a decision of me, of smooth or of anyone else. No need to ask permission. Anyone can cause Monero to survive!

I give the chance of survival for 2 years to be about 50%. This is composed of a fatal flaw in CN tech and the "fair fork" risk.

And am willing to bet, with a well-defined "survival". It is a virtuous circle to bet for something that you can control.