Risto will get another bubble:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.9801250
All the ground work is being laid now so that grandmas can participate and lose their skirts.
Speculation is the only broad use case of Bitcoin:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.9801502
Risto is and will always be just a speculator. His other delusions are just that.
Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 67. (Read 907248 times)
so what if Risto is more bullish than a large majority of us. There are things about Risto that bother me, including his sometimes cock-sure way of expressing some of his predictions or even his past performance and some arrogance of attempting to distinguish himself from others, which sometimes results in denigrations of others. Also, sometimes, I think he puts too much certainty in terms of mathematical models - and maybe a few other bragging aspects of his personality. Nonetheless, Risto frequently provides really decent analysis and fairly decent explanations concerning why and how he is arriving at his prediction(s).
The problem is apparently with the interpretation. Despite that all his predictions are "clearly wrong in all possible ways", he himself is able to make money on them.
I take it that you are referring to yourself in the third person? Anyhow, I am NOT the one that would assert that you have been wrong in all possible ways.. that certainly is NOT the tone of my commentary. In essence, I think that you are missing part of my point, and surely there could be some credibility when investors are able to make money off of their various techniques.. but a better question may be whether people who they are advising are making money by following those techniques.. maybe so, and maybe not.. partly depending on timing and maybe even the extent to which advice is closely followed.
Problematic to give advice in public forums and also problematic to give advice if not knowing many particular financial circumstances, timeline and goals of each of the individuals.
i would like comments and analysis, and of course you can tell me that i am a bag of horseshit, i won't take it personally 
In your previous post you critique Bitcoin as a payment system and I wont contest that. I would go as far as saying that bitcoin is quite a shitty payment system. The lack of consumer protection is one thing, lack of speed another.
I've always seen the monetary aspect of Bitcoin as more important (it's the reason why I'm still here). The 2 aspects (payment system and money) are interdependant, of course. The one cannot flourish without the other.
The fact that we have (for the first time) an easily (cheaply) and globally transactable 'commodity' with a known supply has implications. If anything it puts pressure on central banks and governments. They have to fear not only people running to gold, but also to the more transparent and more convenient (that is: cheaper to store/transact) Bitcoin. It puts a lid on things so to say, draws a line.
Bitcoin is a threat to the current monetary system and the state (those two are intertwined). It's an option for the people. It gives them freedom. Freedom of choice, freedom of speech. It is extremely important in a free society for the people to be able to speak freely to one another and make financial transactions freely. We can't have the government ordering payment processors to stop processing payments to political opposition in a free society just as we can't have government censoring the communications between groups of people.
EDIT: jmw74 put it well:
Quote from: jmw74
Bitcoin's major contribution is competition. You will always be able to tell the authority "fuck off, I'll just use bitcoin"
... And obviously if you want to do anything outside of regulatory authority, like run an unlicensed taxi service, bitcoin is probably the only way to avoid censorship...
This is a typical "Bitcoin is useful" scenario.
Overlooking facts that taxis are a typically a cash business [making the pseudonimity offered by Bitcoin a downgrade], you'll instantly lose 99% of your clientele--unless you feel we already have 100% Bitcoin adoption.
i would like comments and analysis, and of course you can tell me that i am a bag of horseshit, i won't take it personally
Here's how I see bitcoin's role. It's the pressure release valve - when some authority is preventing you from doing business (either via threat of violence, exorbitant fees, whatever), bitcoin is your method of circumventing that authority.
Most transactions are already frictionless enough, that bitcoin offers no real benefit. It may be cheaper in some circumstances but it's slower and less convenient. The problem is that you never really know when some authority is going to block your path. So having bitcoin on hand is going to be a win for nearly everyone.
How much you need really depends on your relationship to authorities. If your country has low inflation, your banks let you transfer money for free and don't ask a lot of questions, then your need for bitcoin is low.
However if you live in Venezuela and you need to send money and your only choice is paying 10% fee to Western Union, bitcoin is a godsend. And obviously if you want to do anything outside of regulatory authority, like run an unlicensed taxi service, bitcoin is probably the only way to avoid censorship. Otherwise you will simply be blocked at your bank account or payment processor.
Bitcoin's major contribution is competition. You will always be able to tell the authority "fuck off, I'll just use bitcoin", and they probably can't stop you. If they want to continue to make money, they'll have to convince you to stay somehow - lower fees, more relaxed policies etc. The less the authority is willing to bend, the more bitcoin will simply eat their lunch.
i would like comments and analysis, and of course you can tell me that i am a bag of horseshit, i won't take it personally
you changed at least partly my view regarding bitcoin.
I would like to changetip you for that
sad it is not (yet) implemented here on btt.great analysis - the good thing on bear market is that the posts even get more polarized regarding quality - you probably hit a nail here for average joe usage.
nevertheless I think that one killer app of bitcoin is store of value - at least in the long term.
i would like comments and analysis, and of course you can tell me that i am a bag of horseshit, i won't take it personally
just going to post this here....
i think at this point in time bitcoin is a solution looking for a problem.
almost 24 months ago people though that bitcoin would revolutionize the business of international money transfers, people started working on designing ATMs, and fiat to bitcoin exchanges popped up in many jurisdictions. a solution to an old problem.
today we have some ATMs and a healthy number of exchanges, however both of these have very high regulatory costs. as it turns out much of that "problem" is mostly the creation of various regulatory regimes, since we no longer generally ship around tons of gold on ships, that let us say are in place to allow incumbents to make money along with providing protocols that allow for reporting to governments primarily for reasons related to tax collection, but also the enforcement of embargoes, sanctions and the never ending hunt for organized crime (terror, drugs, etc).
frankly this is not what bitcoin, as one can plainly see, excels at.
one has to go back to the Satoshi Nakamoto white paper and re-read it occasionally to pull out new nuggets of insight based on what has transpired.
A few things to note here:
1. "the system works well enough for most transactions" means that Satoshi thought that "most transactions" concerning online commerce are handled well by the current system. therefor it is not likely that bitcoin applies to say the purchase of books on amazon.com. Bitpay, circle and coinbase are sadly barking up the wrong tree.
2. so what is bitcoin perhaps good for? there answer is right there in the first paragraph: "small casual transactions" and " non-reversible payments for nonreversible services".
What are interactions that may constitute say "small casual transactions"?
1. tipping - this has been relatively successful for reddit and doge it seems
2. online gambling - we can see that the dice sites appear to do decent business
3. ?
4. ??
5.
What are "nonreversible services"?
1. the time stamping of a digital document
2. the use of processing power
3. the use of data storage
4. the escrowing of something of value
5. the execution of a contract between some parties
6. the delivery of data
7.
8.
9.
Now ask yourselves, how many bitcoin services and business do you know which fall into some of these categories?
And then you, I think, shall understand why we are not yet at $10000/btc.
When folks on here can start naming popular services in a majority of these categories, and perhaps others, then we will see not only the foundation for more wide spread adoption but also price.
Most of the investments in the current space by VC are really throwing money into a fire. But I have full confidence that in time (say 2-3 years) other groups that are more nimble and not necessarily driven by rigid business plans will begin to execute on these. Of course that is the reason why I really like projects like Ethereum, Counterparty and Storj.
almost 24 months ago people though that bitcoin would revolutionize the business of international money transfers, people started working on designing ATMs, and fiat to bitcoin exchanges popped up in many jurisdictions. a solution to an old problem.
today we have some ATMs and a healthy number of exchanges, however both of these have very high regulatory costs. as it turns out much of that "problem" is mostly the creation of various regulatory regimes, since we no longer generally ship around tons of gold on ships, that let us say are in place to allow incumbents to make money along with providing protocols that allow for reporting to governments primarily for reasons related to tax collection, but also the enforcement of embargoes, sanctions and the never ending hunt for organized crime (terror, drugs, etc).
frankly this is not what bitcoin, as one can plainly see, excels at.
one has to go back to the Satoshi Nakamoto white paper and re-read it occasionally to pull out new nuggets of insight based on what has transpired.
Quote
While the system works well enough for most transactions, it still suffers from the inherent weaknesses of the trust based model.
Completely non-reversible transactions are not really possible, since financial institutions cannot avoid mediating disputes. The cost of mediation increases transaction costs, limiting the minimum practical transaction size and cutting off the possibility for small casual transactions, and there is a broader cost in the loss of ability to make non-reversible payments for nonreversible
services.
Completely non-reversible transactions are not really possible, since financial institutions cannot avoid mediating disputes. The cost of mediation increases transaction costs, limiting the minimum practical transaction size and cutting off the possibility for small casual transactions, and there is a broader cost in the loss of ability to make non-reversible payments for nonreversible
services.
A few things to note here:
1. "the system works well enough for most transactions" means that Satoshi thought that "most transactions" concerning online commerce are handled well by the current system. therefor it is not likely that bitcoin applies to say the purchase of books on amazon.com. Bitpay, circle and coinbase are sadly barking up the wrong tree.
2. so what is bitcoin perhaps good for? there answer is right there in the first paragraph: "small casual transactions" and " non-reversible payments for nonreversible services".
What are interactions that may constitute say "small casual transactions"?
1. tipping - this has been relatively successful for reddit and doge it seems
2. online gambling - we can see that the dice sites appear to do decent business
3. ?
4. ??
5.
What are "nonreversible services"?
1. the time stamping of a digital document
2. the use of processing power
3. the use of data storage
4. the escrowing of something of value
5. the execution of a contract between some parties
6. the delivery of data
7.
8.
9.
Now ask yourselves, how many bitcoin services and business do you know which fall into some of these categories?
And then you, I think, shall understand why we are not yet at $10000/btc.
When folks on here can start naming popular services in a majority of these categories, and perhaps others, then we will see not only the foundation for more wide spread adoption but also price.
Most of the investments in the current space by VC are really throwing money into a fire. But I have full confidence that in time (say 2-3 years) other groups that are more nimble and not necessarily driven by rigid business plans will begin to execute on these. Of course that is the reason why I really like projects like Ethereum, Counterparty and Storj.
so what if Risto is more bullish than a large majority of us. There are things about Risto that bother me, including his sometimes cock-sure way of expressing some of his predictions or even his past performance and some arrogance of attempting to distinguish himself from others, which sometimes results in denigrations of others. Also, sometimes, I think he puts too much certainty in terms of mathematical models - and maybe a few other bragging aspects of his personality. Nonetheless, Risto frequently provides really decent analysis and fairly decent explanations concerning why and how he is arriving at his prediction(s).
The problem is apparently with the interpretation. Despite that all his predictions are "clearly wrong in all possible ways", he himself is able to make money on them.
Since side chains are now an inevitability, a Monero clone is a likely early candidate because it is mined and offers anonymity.
As I understand it using something like Monero via a side chain compromises your privacy to a certain extent. Sorry for the lack of detail as I don't have links handy to where it was discussed. The future will unfold
I never know what or when my next meal is 
At least you could summarize Risto a little better, no?
$300k per BTC would be a 1000x price increase. He did NOT say that.
Risto said 100x is possible, which would be $30k per btc.
[...]
In any event, I am of the belief that once BTC prices go beyond $800 or $850, then there is going to be a rise and shooting past the prior ATH to the $3k to $13k price range. And, I believe that the rise to the new ATH is most likely to occur in 1 to 8 months from now. Surely, this prediction regarding BTC prices and the trendline could change if the rise in price is delayed by too much.. because ongoing suppression of BTC prices does affect overall sentiment towards BTC. and can have a negative rippling effect to cause further delay..
$300k per BTC would be a 1000x price increase. He did NOT say that.
Risto said 100x is possible, which would be $30k per btc.
[...]
In any event, I am of the belief that once BTC prices go beyond $800 or $850, then there is going to be a rise and shooting past the prior ATH to the $3k to $13k price range. And, I believe that the rise to the new ATH is most likely to occur in 1 to 8 months from now. Surely, this prediction regarding BTC prices and the trendline could change if the rise in price is delayed by too much.. because ongoing suppression of BTC prices does affect overall sentiment towards BTC. and can have a negative rippling effect to cause further delay..
Oh sorry, I didn't realize I was Risto's personal post summarizer or that his tiny post even needed a summary. And sure I'm too dumb to know that 300 + "00" isn't 300.000. "Delusion of grandeur" much? (I don't remember who said that to Risto around that time but it kept sticking
)The 300k I was referring to was risto's own prediction from ~18 months ago or so. But now that you mention it, I think that prediction was meant to come true at the end of last year, didn't it?
I agree with your broad prediction however, 3-13k within 1-8 months seems very plausible. I'm betting on 6300$ around March-April 2015 then again a year of descent back to around 1500$ until moon 3.0.
Look Ox3d, you and I largely agree on the general direction of bitcoin, and I do NOT expect that any of us are really soothe sayers regarding these price prediction matters. There are bigger whale manipulators who can probably influence the direction of bitcoin prices in the short term; however, they may or may NOT be able to totally control its price direction in the long term... especially if we may once again strike upon upward momentum that causes the flooding in of money that is likely waiting on the sidelines for the next run-up in BTC prices.
Accordingly, so what if some of us get wrong our predictions. Some predictions are more bearish and some are more bullish and some are based on more logic and facts than others, and so what if Risto is more bullish than a large majority of us. There are things about Risto that bother me, including his sometimes cock-sure way of expressing some of his predictions or even his past performance and some arrogance of attempting to distinguish himself from others, which sometimes results in denigrations of others. Also, sometimes, I think he puts too much certainty in terms of mathematical models - and maybe a few other bragging aspects of his personality. Nonetheless, Risto frequently provides really decent analysis and fairly decent explanations concerning why and how he is arriving at his prediction(s). So what if he is wrong and even wrong by magnitudes and wrong in timing and even a little irritating because he seems to be pumping Monero in threads that are largely BTC (even if they happen to be his own threads)!!!!!
Since side chains are now an inevitability, a Monero clone is a likely early candidate because it is mined and offers anonymity.
So send your BTC to wherever exchange you want to buy Monero from and buy it. Not sure which exchanges trading monero are outside of the US but Im sure someone here knows.
Yes of course, but some of us only buy and sell using US based sellers that do not sell or trade in LTC or any other coin yet.
^^^
Same goes for most if not all alts. Bitcoin can be traded for them.
Same goes for most if not all alts. Bitcoin can be traded for them.
Yes of course, but some of us only buy and sell using US based sellers that do not sell or trade in LTC or any other coin yet.
^^^
Same goes for most if not all alts. Bitcoin can be traded for them.
Same goes for most if not all alts. Bitcoin can be traded for them.
Yes of course, but some of us only buy and sell using US based sellers that do not sell or trade in LTC or any other coin yet.
^^^
Same goes for most if not all alts. Bitcoin can be traded for them.
Same goes for most if not all alts. Bitcoin can be traded for them.
Hey Risto. I don't mean to steal your time but it seems like forever since you last posted some quality TA in here. Would you mind sharing what you think 2015 will bring?
Evil and crafty people try to shake your bitcoins from you. Once they have completed the current round, the price is let to rise. The exponential trendline will hold. The price rise may be in the order of 100x before the year is over.
It is good to be open for developments, like privacy-centric altcoins. Currently Monero is still my pick, nothing better has come (same with Bitcoin btw. even if price goes to $100, if there is nothing better, why should you worry?). Monero marketcap is 1:1,000 of Bitcoin, so it is very cheap to take a hedge bet.
Crypto Kingdom will conquer the world.
Do you really think Monero is future ?
- there is less than 1% than bitcoin will fail in next 5 years
- there is less than 1% than monero can survive next 2 years
Edit:
Aircraft carrier(bitcoin) vs sailboat(monero ... few orders of magnitude less secure, order of magnitude bigger blockchain, tiny market cap.)
Risto, you know I am one of your biggest fans on here. You have been very wise and helpful to me during the past year and half that I have been involved with BTC and I am hugely grateful for that.
I have similar questions with Monero though. I guess the thing that comes to my mind is that you, being involved with BTC earlier than the vast majority, are truly an innovator at heart. We could even call you "visionary." You certainly hit the nail on the head with your insight into what BTC could be and that paid huge rewards for you. But being a visionary and innovative can also mean that you are a bit more of a risk taker at heart than some of us are. It seems that you like to dive head first into whatever it is that you see as being a great thing while some of us just put our toe in the water or watch how it works out for you first.
Part of me thinks I should buy some Monero because it could become something (and because you were certainly right about BTC) but in reality I am not quite the visionary you are. Also, I haven't even dabbled in LTC or any other altcoin for that matter, mostly because there are really no easy ways to purchase them. The only sites we use to buy and sell BTC are US based and that limits us quite a bit in that. I figure that if any of the alt coins become valuable the chances are that BTC will too because BTC is the first one to gain traction and we can always purchase some if and when they become more readily available. Yes the ROI will be less then but that is why the innovators and risk takers are the ones who have earned those rewards by taking those early risks. All that said, I am happy to read that you still envision 100x growth for BTC down the road at some point. Patience will be rewarded at some point I hope.
I'm not recommending litecoin but there are many, many places where bitcoin can be traded for it (most exchanges). That's how most people obtain litecoin.
Hey Risto. I don't mean to steal your time but it seems like forever since you last posted some quality TA in here. Would you mind sharing what you think 2015 will bring?
Evil and crafty people try to shake your bitcoins from you. Once they have completed the current round, the price is let to rise. The exponential trendline will hold. The price rise may be in the order of 100x before the year is over.
It is good to be open for developments, like privacy-centric altcoins. Currently Monero is still my pick, nothing better has come (same with Bitcoin btw. even if price goes to $100, if there is nothing better, why should you worry?). Monero marketcap is 1:1,000 of Bitcoin, so it is very cheap to take a hedge bet.
Crypto Kingdom will conquer the world.
Do you really think Monero is future ?
- there is less than 1% than bitcoin will fail in next 5 years
- there is less than 1% than monero can survive next 2 years
Edit:
Aircraft carrier(bitcoin) vs sailboat(monero ... few orders of magnitude less secure, order of magnitude bigger blockchain, tiny market cap.)
Risto, you know I am one of your biggest fans on here. You have been very wise and helpful to me during the past year and half that I have been involved with BTC and I am hugely grateful for that.
I have similar questions with Monero though. I guess the thing that comes to my mind is that you, being involved with BTC earlier than the vast majority, are truly an innovator at heart. We could even call you "visionary." You certainly hit the nail on the head with your insight into what BTC could be and that paid huge rewards for you. But being a visionary and innovative can also mean that you are a bit more of a risk taker at heart than some of us are. It seems that you like to dive head first into whatever it is that you see as being a great thing while some of us just put our toe in the water or watch how it works out for you first.
Part of me thinks I should buy some Monero because it could become something (and because you were certainly right about BTC) but in reality I am not quite the visionary you are. Also, I haven't even dabbled in LTC or any other altcoin for that matter, mostly because there are really no easy ways to purchase them. The only sites we use to buy and sell BTC are US based and that limits us quite a bit in that. I figure that if any of the alt coins become valuable the chances are that BTC will too because BTC is the first one to gain traction and we can always purchase some if and when they become more readily available. Yes the ROI will be less then but that is why the innovators and risk takers are the ones who have earned those rewards by taking those early risks. All that said, I am happy to read that you still envision 100x growth for BTC down the road at some point. Patience will be rewarded at some point I hope.
At least you could summarize Risto a little better, no?
$300k per BTC would be a 1000x price increase. He did NOT say that.
Risto said 100x is possible, which would be $30k per btc.
[...]
In any event, I am of the belief that once BTC prices go beyond $800 or $850, then there is going to be a rise and shooting past the prior ATH to the $3k to $13k price range. And, I believe that the rise to the new ATH is most likely to occur in 1 to 8 months from now. Surely, this prediction regarding BTC prices and the trendline could change if the rise in price is delayed by too much.. because ongoing suppression of BTC prices does affect overall sentiment towards BTC. and can have a negative rippling effect to cause further delay..
$300k per BTC would be a 1000x price increase. He did NOT say that.
Risto said 100x is possible, which would be $30k per btc.
[...]
In any event, I am of the belief that once BTC prices go beyond $800 or $850, then there is going to be a rise and shooting past the prior ATH to the $3k to $13k price range. And, I believe that the rise to the new ATH is most likely to occur in 1 to 8 months from now. Surely, this prediction regarding BTC prices and the trendline could change if the rise in price is delayed by too much.. because ongoing suppression of BTC prices does affect overall sentiment towards BTC. and can have a negative rippling effect to cause further delay..
Oh sorry, I didn't realize I was Risto's personal post summarizer or that his tiny post even needed a summary. And sure I'm too dumb to know that 300 + "00" isn't 300.000. "Delusion of grandeur" much? (I don't remember who said that to Risto around that time but it kept sticking
)The 300k I was referring to was risto's own prediction from ~18 months ago or so. But now that you mention it, I think that prediction was meant to come true at the end of last year, didn't it?
I agree with your broad prediction however, 3-13k within 1-8 months seems very plausible. I'm betting on 6300$ around March-April 2015 then again a year of descent back to around 1500$ until moon 3.0.
Monero is junk.
Just another scamcoin that tried to ride the anon coins fad like CLOAK, CRYPT, RZR and similar fails/outright scams.
If you think that with putting money in Monero you made a great investment be ready to watch all your funds go out the window (as it probably, partially, already happened).
Behind the gimmicky anon features, it's basically a clone of BTC. it has the same fundamental issues.
So:
If BTC survives, a real functioning anon feature will be implemented in BTC (DarkWallet is being developed...) --> Monero will be obsolete
If BTC dies because the world doesn't want what it has to offer for whatever reason --> Monero will be obsolete
Not trolling. Just saying what I think because money is at stake.
Just another scamcoin that tried to ride the anon coins fad like CLOAK, CRYPT, RZR and similar fails/outright scams.
If you think that with putting money in Monero you made a great investment be ready to watch all your funds go out the window (as it probably, partially, already happened).
Behind the gimmicky anon features, it's basically a clone of BTC. it has the same fundamental issues.
So:
If BTC survives, a real functioning anon feature will be implemented in BTC (DarkWallet is being developed...) --> Monero will be obsolete
If BTC dies because the world doesn't want what it has to offer for whatever reason --> Monero will be obsolete
Not trolling. Just saying what I think because money is at stake.
Saying what you think as opposed to saying what you know?
It's not a clone of btc but has a different code. 99% of alt coins are btc clones. Some "anon" coins are indeed gimmicky, Monero is not. See what Mr Maxwell has to say.
Privacy features will not be implemented in btc but will be added on top of as per your example. Monero has more and better privacy features than can be gotten with dark wallet. Privacy is inherent in Monero now with no need to do anything. There is more to Monero besides privacy.
It is much easier to make a privacy coin have a transparent option if you choose to do so than it is to make a transparent coin a private one.
I don't believe privacy is a fad. How can privacy be a fad?
I guess to some extent in the alt coin world anon is/was a fad. What I believe differentiates Monero is the intent of the developers. They are not trying to cash in on a fad but instead are building something that is needed. The devs are doing so with a goal, a plan and competence.
What will the future bring?
...
Evil and crafty people try to shake your bitcoins from you. ...
Evil and crafty people try to shake your bitcoins from you. ...
That capital "T" in "quality TA," what's it stand for again?
Seems to mean "traumatized" in this case
We were supposed to be at 300.000$/BTC in about 3 weeks after all. Well at least it almost fits if we're talking price per kBTC, hehe.Other than that I can only agree with both of you. Yes, it's gonna be shaky until around christmas (big triangle ending around that time) and yes, I was expecting something more tangible, numeric but still better than nada. Thx Risto.
At least you could summarize Risto a little better, no?
$300k per BTC would be a 1000x price increase. He did NOT say that.
Risto said 100x is possible, which would be $30k per btc.
Personally, I think that Risto is much more bullish than me regarding his view of the BTC price trendline.... that influences his vision of future price and the timeline for such.
Based on recent downward manipulation of BTC prices and attempts at removal of confidence from BTC and some recent hesitancies in BTC adoption, including the seeming reluctancies of some big players to jump in, I think that the BTC price trendline going forward is less steep and lower than what Risto is suggesting (also I do NOT believe that math and logic works to predict future human behavior when dealing with economics and politics etc).
In any event, I am of the belief that once BTC prices go beyond $800 or $850, then there is going to be a rise and shooting past the prior ATH to the $3k to $13k price range. And, I believe that the rise to the new ATH is most likely to occur in 1 to 8 months from now. Surely, this prediction regarding BTC prices and the trendline could change if the rise in price is delayed by too much.. because ongoing suppression of BTC prices does affect overall sentiment towards BTC. and can have a negative rippling effect to cause further delay..
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