I think oil will be a good investment. I would wait for a bottom of $45 USD and then buy buy buy. The games that the west is playing with Russia is the root cause of this supposed 'glut'. Fact is there is no more of a glut now then when the price was at its high. Some serious money to be made off of crude.
Global economy is collapsing. After Oct. 2015, this will accelerate. There is an excess of supply in everything.
Massive deflation on the way.Yes. However governments will print enormous amounts of fiat to counteract that deflation, whatever it takes. Because they cannot allow their own sovereign debt to increase in real terms or they will soon find
100% of tax revenue is needed for interest on their debt. They have shown time and again that they will print, stealth-taxing their fiat holding public, to service their own debt first. That is the only choice of default that governments take.
Collapse in fiat means Bitcoin, and gold, UP.
The States of the USA and the municipalities of Germany for example, by law can not print.
Europe is adopting a combination of austerity and monetary easing.
The plan is to confiscate all the pensions and savings to fund the socialism. This is massively deflationary.
Sorry the hyperinflation nonsense is so old. Haven't you guys caught up in your learning process by now? You are where I was at in 2006 in my understanding.
Gold and Bitcoin will go up because of a flight to private assets to escape confiscation, not because of monetary easing. But in the end game none of these will escape taxation. Maybe Gold will if you never sell it again for fiat, you can polish it daily for your ROI. Cash black markets will disappear because the new fiats will be all electronic. Electronic real-estate ownership databases will be created. The socialism will track down every asset.
There is no anonymity. The socialism is in control. Taxes will increase. Confiscation will increase. Down the abyss we go.
And you are where I was 3 years ago.
The fact is that sovereign governments cannot tolerate deflation unless they consistently run balanced budgets or make surpluses, and have low debt. Individual states and municipalities are irrelevant. Central banks will continually monetize government deficits.
This does not cause immediate price inflation for 2 reasons:
1. printed money is parked back at CBs by the bankrupt banks as excess reserves. There are few credit-worthy borrowers after Peak Debt, so banks try to eke out a fraction of a percent at CBs. Hence some CBs try the madness of negative rates. To force the banks to lend, but that is pushing on a wet string.
2. velocity of money falls in a recession, and this is probably the cause of the recent drop in the price of oil. Velocity falling at a global scale.
Eventually printing will overhaul 1 and 2 and cause Venezuela-like inflation.
... the question with all this printing is where is the inflation?
It is in the cash assets of the top 1%. They held a lot of debt products that became worthless or went bad and then they got bailed out, in fact still are getting bailed out and then some. All those bad debts were monetised, i.e. swapped for fiat cash, net result being a huge misallocation of capital into incompetent hands, hyper-financialisation of the economy and an accelerating wealth disparity. Nothing at all to help economic performance, free market incentives, savings or productive enterprises.
When a little more than 10% of the top 1% lose confidence in their now huge fiat cash holdings it will be the end of the CONfidence game, the 'bank' run will be on.
Correct. Printed money always lands in the hands of the banks and asset-rich first.
