Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 82. (Read 907212 times)

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 13, 2014, 03:21:20 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 13, 2014, 02:56:48 PM

Quote from: BlindMayorBitcorn on October 13, 2014, 02:40:44 PM

Quote from: Trolololo on October 13, 2014, 02:33:25 PM

Pelase, remember, this is THE QUALITY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS thread.

Thank you.

1. Still coming off a bubble.
2. There are 650,000 BTC ($221,000,000 USD @ $340) stolen MTGOX coins being sold off not so slowly
3. The mining community is done. They cant compete with the big guys. Centralization
4. 3600 bitcoins are created each day. @ $340 USD that is $1,224,000 that needs to come in to the market each day just to stay @ $340.

Analysis this

I know from first hand big players that are buying directly from miners like crazy. I am talking about billion budget entities..

How much of their billion dollar budgets are going into BTC? .1%, 1% 10%? Makes a difference, no?

2bn

At this time, no one is investing $2 billion into bitcoin b/c otherwise BTC prices would be going through the roof. $2 billion is more than 40% of bitcoin's current market cap.

Even attempting to currently invest $500 million into BTC would probably have a very considerable upward pressure on BTC prices. I am NOT sure how such an investment of let's say $500 million would be able to be hidden or to NOT cause upward BTC price slippage.

Let's say that the company is a $2billion company, and they decide to invest 10% into bitcoin (that would be fairly aggressive), then that would be $200 million. Still I would find it difficult to hide or NOT to cause upward BTC price slippage with that amount. So maybe they are investing 1%, which would be $20million? Still bullish, but possible to hide, in my humble opinion.

S. America bank will buy slowly on behalf of a very known one (they don't want to be seen).
Can't say more nor I am 100% sure, though my source is very reliable.

They will invest 2bn.

Maybe it is not true, who knows?

maybe I am overly naive but how do you hide investing 2bn from a balance sheet and much more important why should you?

Nakaone:

I believe that you are misunderstanding our use of the term "hide" in this context.... but Klee can clarify what he meant by hide.

I think that in one sense the term hide is being used to refer to the practice or attempt to invest without moving the price.. Therefore to accumulate as much as you can while the price is down.

Regarding the mechanics and or obligations to either shareholders, or to managers or to owners, that would be a different question, and I am sure such disclosure to the extent that they are necessary can be carried out in a wide variety of ways. For example, an investment balance sheet can show an investment (but might not specify what it is for, even though the amount is clearly contained therein), and later, after the accumulation has occurred there may be clarifications of the exact investment(s).

SlipperySlope

hero member

Activity: 686

Merit: 501

Stephen Reed

Here is recent evidence of the tendency for gold and bitcoin prices to move in the same direction, and have similar trend reversals.

This is a chart of gold prices at a one-day resolution...

And here is a chart of bitcoin prices, likewise with one-day resolution...

piramida

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Activity: 1176

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Borsche

Quote from: nakaone on October 13, 2014, 04:15:02 PM

maybe I am overly naive but how do you hide investing 2bn from a balance sheet and much more important why should you?

imagine you are a big player late to the game. you see potential and low prices. if you announce your plans, no more low prices. makes perfect sense to buy as much as possible directly on OTC , while spreading fear and pushing price down on exchanges, no? that way insufficient liquidity will not be as obvious since many weak hands will get rid of their coins while panicking. of course, you can't hide that forever and at some point there are just no more sellers available; then it explodes.

nakaone

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Merit: 500

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 13, 2014, 03:21:20 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 13, 2014, 02:56:48 PM

Quote from: BlindMayorBitcorn on October 13, 2014, 02:40:44 PM

Quote from: Trolololo on October 13, 2014, 02:33:25 PM

Pelase, remember, this is THE QUALITY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS thread.

Thank you.

1. Still coming off a bubble.
2. There are 650,000 BTC ($221,000,000 USD @ $340) stolen MTGOX coins being sold off not so slowly
3. The mining community is done. They cant compete with the big guys. Centralization
4. 3600 bitcoins are created each day. @ $340 USD that is $1,224,000 that needs to come in to the market each day just to stay @ $340.

Analysis this

I know from first hand big players that are buying directly from miners like crazy. I am talking about billion budget entities..

How much of their billion dollar budgets are going into BTC? .1%, 1% 10%? Makes a difference, no?

2bn

At this time, no one is investing $2 billion into bitcoin b/c otherwise BTC prices would be going through the roof. $2 billion is more than 40% of bitcoin's current market cap.

Even attempting to currently invest $500 million into BTC would probably have a very considerable upward pressure on BTC prices. I am NOT sure how such an investment of let's say $500 million would be able to be hidden or to NOT cause upward BTC price slippage.

Let's say that the company is a $2billion company, and they decide to invest 10% into bitcoin (that would be fairly aggressive), then that would be $200 million. Still I would find it difficult to hide or NOT to cause upward BTC price slippage with that amount. So maybe they are investing 1%, which would be $20million? Still bullish, but possible to hide, in my humble opinion.

S. America bank will buy slowly on behalf of a very known one (they don't want to be seen).
Can't say more nor I am 100% sure, though my source is very reliable.

They will invest 2bn.

Maybe it is not true, who knows?

maybe I am overly naive but how do you hide investing 2bn from a balance sheet and much more important why should you?

Biodom

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Activity: 3808

Merit: 4078

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 13, 2014, 03:21:20 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 13, 2014, 02:56:48 PM

Quote from: BlindMayorBitcorn on October 13, 2014, 02:40:44 PM

Quote from: Trolololo on October 13, 2014, 02:33:25 PM

Pelase, remember, this is THE QUALITY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS thread.

Thank you.

1. Still coming off a bubble.
2. There are 650,000 BTC ($221,000,000 USD @ $340) stolen MTGOX coins being sold off not so slowly
3. The mining community is done. They cant compete with the big guys. Centralization
4. 3600 bitcoins are created each day. @ $340 USD that is $1,224,000 that needs to come in to the market each day just to stay @ $340.

Analysis this

I know from first hand big players that are buying directly from miners like crazy. I am talking about billion budget entities..

How much of their billion dollar budgets are going into BTC? .1%, 1% 10%? Makes a difference, no?

2bn

At this time, no one is investing $2 billion into bitcoin b/c otherwise BTC prices would be going through the roof. $2 billion is more than 40% of bitcoin's current market cap.

Even attempting to currently invest $500 million into BTC would probably have a very considerable upward pressure on BTC prices. I am NOT sure how such an investment of let's say $500 million would be able to be hidden or to NOT cause upward BTC price slippage.

Let's say that the company is a $2billion company, and they decide to invest 10% into bitcoin (that would be fairly aggressive), then that would be $200 million. Still I would find it difficult to hide or NOT to cause upward BTC price slippage with that amount. So maybe they are investing 1%, which would be $20million? Still bullish, but possible to hide, in my humble opinion.

S. America bank will buy slowly on behalf of a very known one (they don't want to be seen).
Can't say more nor I am 100% sure, though my source is very reliable.

They will invest 2bn.

Maybe it is not true, who knows?

As you know, nobody can invest $2 bil in bitcoin at these prices. The yearly production is only ~0.5bil.
If it is $3840/BTC, then, yes, of course.
I wonder if bitcoin will have it's Hunt's brothers moment. As it is still completely unregulated by CFTC, it is entirely possible that someone may try to produce a "corner". It is probably trivial for a large player to provide or borrow sufficient funds (less than ~$1.4 mil daily)
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/optioninvestor/09/silver-thursday-hunt-brothers.asp
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3836

Merit: 10832

Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 13, 2014, 03:21:20 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 13, 2014, 02:56:48 PM

Quote from: BlindMayorBitcorn on October 13, 2014, 02:40:44 PM

Quote from: Trolololo on October 13, 2014, 02:33:25 PM

Pelase, remember, this is THE QUALITY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS thread.

Thank you.

1. Still coming off a bubble.
2. There are 650,000 BTC ($221,000,000 USD @ $340) stolen MTGOX coins being sold off not so slowly
3. The mining community is done. They cant compete with the big guys. Centralization
4. 3600 bitcoins are created each day. @ $340 USD that is $1,224,000 that needs to come in to the market each day just to stay @ $340.

Analysis this

I know from first hand big players that are buying directly from miners like crazy. I am talking about billion budget entities..

How much of their billion dollar budgets are going into BTC? .1%, 1% 10%? Makes a difference, no?

2bn

At this time, no one is investing $2 billion into bitcoin b/c otherwise BTC prices would be going through the roof. $2 billion is more than 40% of bitcoin's current market cap.

Even attempting to currently invest $500 million into BTC would probably have a very considerable upward pressure on BTC prices. I am NOT sure how such an investment of let's say $500 million would be able to be hidden or to NOT cause upward BTC price slippage.

Let's say that the company is a $2billion company, and they decide to invest 10% into bitcoin (that would be fairly aggressive), then that would be $200 million. Still I would find it difficult to hide or NOT to cause upward BTC price slippage with that amount. So maybe they are investing 1%, which would be $20million? Still bullish, but possible to hide, in my humble opinion.

S. America bank will buy slowly on behalf of a very known one (they don't want to be seen).
Can't say more nor I am 100% sure, though my source is very reliable.

They will invest 2bn.

Maybe it is not true, who knows?

I can see why you are being a little non-specific here; however, if this information is true, then this would be humungous for bitcoin and there would be NO way from stopping upward slippage (unless there is some kinds of fractional reserve banking going on with some of the bitcoin exchanges).

It would be good to know the timeline for such investment(s) b/c it would make a difference if an attempt were made to accomplish such investments in the next few months or if such investments were going to be spread over the next year or longer. For example, if they chose to spread their investment into BTC over the next two years, then it is possible that the later half of their investment would NOT have very much of an affect on bitcoin prices, if BTC's market cap has sufficiently gone up by that time.

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3836

Merit: 10832

Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: brg444 on October 13, 2014, 03:24:58 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 13, 2014, 03:21:20 PM

At this time, no one is investing $2 billion into bitcoin b/c otherwise BTC prices would be going through the roof. $2 billion is more than 40% of bitcoin's current market cap.

Even attempting to currently invest $500 million into BTC would probably have a very considerable upward pressure on BTC prices. I am NOT sure how such an investment of let's say $500 million would be able to be hidden or to NOT cause upward BTC price slippage.

Let's say that the company is a $2billion company, and they decide to invest 10% into bitcoin (that would be fairly aggressive), then that would be $200 million. Still I would find it difficult to hide or NOT to cause upward BTC price slippage with that amount. So maybe they are investing 1%, which would be $20million? Still bullish, but possible to hide, in my humble opinion.

You have to consider that most transactions are occuring off-market currently.

Several things point to an immense OTC market that could very well satisfy million dollars interest while having little to no impact on exchanges prices

Agreed that this is one of the problems with the exchange prices.

By the way, the OTC transactions should show up on the blockchain? However, it seems that we are going to suffer from some difficulties in knowing the price of such blockchain transactions and knowing whether such transactions are changing ownership hands.

klee

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Activity: 1498

Merit: 1000

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 13, 2014, 03:21:20 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 13, 2014, 02:56:48 PM

Quote from: BlindMayorBitcorn on October 13, 2014, 02:40:44 PM

Quote from: Trolololo on October 13, 2014, 02:33:25 PM

Pelase, remember, this is THE QUALITY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS thread.

Thank you.

1. Still coming off a bubble.
2. There are 650,000 BTC ($221,000,000 USD @ $340) stolen MTGOX coins being sold off not so slowly
3. The mining community is done. They cant compete with the big guys. Centralization
4. 3600 bitcoins are created each day. @ $340 USD that is $1,224,000 that needs to come in to the market each day just to stay @ $340.

Analysis this

I know from first hand big players that are buying directly from miners like crazy. I am talking about billion budget entities..

How much of their billion dollar budgets are going into BTC? .1%, 1% 10%? Makes a difference, no?

2bn

At this time, no one is investing $2 billion into bitcoin b/c otherwise BTC prices would be going through the roof. $2 billion is more than 40% of bitcoin's current market cap.

Even attempting to currently invest $500 million into BTC would probably have a very considerable upward pressure on BTC prices. I am NOT sure how such an investment of let's say $500 million would be able to be hidden or to NOT cause upward BTC price slippage.

Let's say that the company is a $2billion company, and they decide to invest 10% into bitcoin (that would be fairly aggressive), then that would be $200 million. Still I would find it difficult to hide or NOT to cause upward BTC price slippage with that amount. So maybe they are investing 1%, which would be $20million? Still bullish, but possible to hide, in my humble opinion.

S. America bank will buy slowly on behalf of a very known one (they don't want to be seen).
Can't say more nor I am 100% sure, though my source is very reliable.

They will invest 2bn.

Maybe it is not true, who knows?

brg444

hero member

Activity: 644

Merit: 504

Bitcoin replaces central, not commercial, banks

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 13, 2014, 03:21:20 PM

At this time, no one is investing $2 billion into bitcoin b/c otherwise BTC prices would be going through the roof. $2 billion is more than 40% of bitcoin's current market cap.

Even attempting to currently invest $500 million into BTC would probably have a very considerable upward pressure on BTC prices. I am NOT sure how such an investment of let's say $500 million would be able to be hidden or to NOT cause upward BTC price slippage.

Let's say that the company is a $2billion company, and they decide to invest 10% into bitcoin (that would be fairly aggressive), then that would be $200 million. Still I would find it difficult to hide or NOT to cause upward BTC price slippage with that amount. So maybe they are investing 1%, which would be $20million? Still bullish, but possible to hide, in my humble opinion.

You have to consider that most transactions are occuring off-market currently.

Several things point to an immense OTC market that could very well satisfy million dollars interest while having little to no impact on exchanges prices

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3836

Merit: 10832

Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 13, 2014, 02:56:48 PM

Quote from: BlindMayorBitcorn on October 13, 2014, 02:40:44 PM

Quote from: Trolololo on October 13, 2014, 02:33:25 PM

Pelase, remember, this is THE QUALITY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS thread.

Thank you.

1. Still coming off a bubble.
2. There are 650,000 BTC ($221,000,000 USD @ $340) stolen MTGOX coins being sold off not so slowly
3. The mining community is done. They cant compete with the big guys. Centralization
4. 3600 bitcoins are created each day. @ $340 USD that is $1,224,000 that needs to come in to the market each day just to stay @ $340.

Analysis this

I know from first hand big players that are buying directly from miners like crazy. I am talking about billion budget entities..

How much of their billion dollar budgets are going into BTC? .1%, 1% 10%? Makes a difference, no?

2bn

At this time, no one is investing $2 billion into bitcoin b/c otherwise BTC prices would be going through the roof. $2 billion is more than 40% of bitcoin's current market cap.

Even attempting to currently invest $500 million into BTC would probably have a very considerable upward pressure on BTC prices. I am NOT sure how such an investment of let's say $500 million would be able to be hidden or to NOT cause upward BTC price slippage.

Let's say that the company is a $2billion company, and they decide to invest 10% into bitcoin (that would be fairly aggressive), then that would be $200 million. Still I would find it difficult to hide or NOT to cause upward BTC price slippage with that amount. So maybe they are investing 1%, which would be $20million? Still bullish, but possible to hide, in my humble opinion.

brg444

hero member

Activity: 644

Merit: 504

Bitcoin replaces central, not commercial, banks

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 13, 2014, 03:07:00 PM

Quote from: brg444 on October 13, 2014, 02:58:07 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 13, 2014, 02:56:48 PM

Quote from: BlindMayorBitcorn on October 13, 2014, 02:40:44 PM

Quote from: Trolololo on October 13, 2014, 02:33:25 PM

Pelase, remember, this is THE QUALITY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS thread.

Thank you.

1. Still coming off a bubble.
2. There are 650,000 BTC ($221,000,000 USD @ $340) stolen MTGOX coins being sold off not so slowly
3. The mining community is done. They cant compete with the big guys. Centralization
4. 3600 bitcoins are created each day. @ $340 USD that is $1,224,000 that needs to come in to the market each day just to stay @ $340.

Analysis this

I know from first hand big players that are buying directly from miners like crazy. I am talking about billion budget entities..

How much of their billion dollar budgets are going into BTC? .1%, 1% 10%? Makes a difference, no?

probably enough to accumulate off-market as long as possible

Based on a lot of what I am reading, I get the sense that there are quite a few entities that are engaging in a form of accumulation while attempting to hold off on affecting the market price (or to affected it as little as possible so that they can continue to accumulate). Seems an interesting balancing because I am sure that some of these entities, such as Tim Draper's nearly 30k accumulation of coins, may be getting anxious to pump up the BTC prices in order to be resting clearly in the black, rather than in the red.

I'm sure such rich entities who believe in BTC enough to accumulate large amounts are not too concerned with near-term profit.

They are going to milk the cow until the very last drop and only then will they drive up market demand.

Of course I do not claim they have total control over this market and certainly some other forces increasing market demand could suspend their accumulation. My impression is that they are very wary of driving the market up since the moment we enter a clear bull market, miners and large holders will cut off their supply line and keep the coins for themselves.

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3836

Merit: 10832

Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 13, 2014, 02:54:00 PM

Quote from: BlindMayorBitcorn on October 13, 2014, 02:40:44 PM

Quote from: Trolololo on October 13, 2014, 02:33:25 PM

Pelase, remember, this is THE QUALITY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS thread.

Thank you.

1. Still coming off a bubble.
2. There are 650,000 BTC ($221,000,000 USD @ $340) stolen MTGOX coins being sold off not so slowly
3. The mining community is done. They cant compete with the big guys. Centralization
4. 3600 bitcoins are created each day. @ $340 USD that is $1,224,000 that needs to come in to the market each day just to stay @ $340.

Analysis this

Analyze your FUD? You come off as a troll.

1) bubble depends on a historical perspective, so cannot determine if your statement is correct from the current state of bitcoin.

2) You have no facts to substantiate what's going on with the 650K BTC. It is equally as possible (if NOT more) that those 650k BTC had been sufficiently liquidated and dispersed in 2011 rather than in 2014.

3) Movement towards more centralization of mining.. so what? There always are going to be various influxes of big money into profitable space. More centralization of mining does NOT cause bitcoin to die in the short or medium term, and surely as this "centralization" of mining progresses, there will likely be adjustments in the protocol to account for if some dangers develop...

4) Yes, 3600 each day, and 2 years ago, it was 7200 a day, and in less than 2 years, it will be 1800 a day.. What's the problem? These are already known aspects of the btc space and price will continue to adjust for these ongoing occurrences.

Ok good analysis.

I am certainly a troll being paid by Apple to ask questions about the state of Bitcoin. I'm so rich, you have no idea

There is a little bit of humor in your response to being a troll is to spread more disinformation... Cheesy

By the way, being rich seems to be relative, and so long as you can comfortably live within your means and to be sufficiently fed, housed, happy and secure, then I suppose you are "rich."

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3836

Merit: 10832

Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: brg444 on October 13, 2014, 02:58:07 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 13, 2014, 02:56:48 PM

Quote from: BlindMayorBitcorn on October 13, 2014, 02:40:44 PM

Quote from: Trolololo on October 13, 2014, 02:33:25 PM

Pelase, remember, this is THE QUALITY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS thread.

Thank you.

1. Still coming off a bubble.
2. There are 650,000 BTC ($221,000,000 USD @ $340) stolen MTGOX coins being sold off not so slowly
3. The mining community is done. They cant compete with the big guys. Centralization
4. 3600 bitcoins are created each day. @ $340 USD that is $1,224,000 that needs to come in to the market each day just to stay @ $340.

Analysis this

I know from first hand big players that are buying directly from miners like crazy. I am talking about billion budget entities..

How much of their billion dollar budgets are going into BTC? .1%, 1% 10%? Makes a difference, no?

probably enough to accumulate off-market as long as possible

Based on a lot of what I am reading, I get the sense that there are quite a few entities that are engaging in a form of accumulation while attempting to hold off on affecting the market price (or to affected it as little as possible so that they can continue to accumulate). Seems an interesting balancing because I am sure that some of these entities, such as Tim Draper's nearly 30k accumulation of coins, may be getting anxious to pump up the BTC prices in order to be resting clearly in the black, rather than in the red.

klee

legendary

Activity: 1498

Merit: 1000

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 13, 2014, 02:56:48 PM

Quote from: BlindMayorBitcorn on October 13, 2014, 02:40:44 PM

Quote from: Trolololo on October 13, 2014, 02:33:25 PM

Pelase, remember, this is THE QUALITY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS thread.

Thank you.

1. Still coming off a bubble.
2. There are 650,000 BTC ($221,000,000 USD @ $340) stolen MTGOX coins being sold off not so slowly
3. The mining community is done. They cant compete with the big guys. Centralization
4. 3600 bitcoins are created each day. @ $340 USD that is $1,224,000 that needs to come in to the market each day just to stay @ $340.

Analysis this

I know from first hand big players that are buying directly from miners like crazy. I am talking about billion budget entities..

How much of their billion dollar budgets are going into BTC? .1%, 1% 10%? Makes a difference, no?

2bn

brg444

hero member

Activity: 644

Merit: 504

Bitcoin replaces central, not commercial, banks

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 13, 2014, 02:56:48 PM

Quote from: BlindMayorBitcorn on October 13, 2014, 02:40:44 PM

Quote from: Trolololo on October 13, 2014, 02:33:25 PM

Pelase, remember, this is THE QUALITY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS thread.

Thank you.

1. Still coming off a bubble.
2. There are 650,000 BTC ($221,000,000 USD @ $340) stolen MTGOX coins being sold off not so slowly
3. The mining community is done. They cant compete with the big guys. Centralization
4. 3600 bitcoins are created each day. @ $340 USD that is $1,224,000 that needs to come in to the market each day just to stay @ $340.

Analysis this

I know from first hand big players that are buying directly from miners like crazy. I am talking about billion budget entities..

How much of their billion dollar budgets are going into BTC? .1%, 1% 10%? Makes a difference, no?

probably enough to accumulate off-market as long as possible

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3836

Merit: 10832

Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"