Topic: Russia Was Prepared to Withstand Sanctions. Why Wasn't Europe Prepared to Impose - page 2. (Read 835 times)

war brought havoc to all countries, at the beginning of the war almost all countries imposed sanctions on Russia, but the proof is not Russia who has experienced the impact of the sanctions given, in fact other countries have experienced the impact of Russian sanctions, even America itself is now experiencing the impact what is extraordinary, the country that used to impose sanctions on Russia, now the country is silent, and seems to be running away from their responsibilities, it is countries with weak economies that receive a huge impact, like Indonesia, where oil prices are now soaring.

Why is she the best choice? The fact that, at the discretion of a not quite adequate ruler, he can take and stop gas supplies in winter, violating the contractual terms? And this is not the first time! And what's more - after that, there are also ultimatums to change the supply chain and payment!
What is worse, for example, oil from Norway and gas from suppliers from Asia? Or SGP hubs in the Baltics or Portugal? Risk diversification in today's situation is the best solution! Russia is a toxic country, a toxic and unpredictable supplier - do you really want to work and have a relationship with such a person?

Europe will feel the heat also, at this point I just see this war as comic relief. Funny propaganda everywhere, the west dancing with Ukraine's vulnerability, EU is now asking its citizens to work from home three days a week to reduce reliance on Russia energy. Instead of finding ways to stop the war, the EU countries are running from pillar to post to punish Russia. Now its has come to sanctioning themselves. When you stay home for three days in a week you burn more gas in heating the home. When you drive slow, you pollute the environment the more.

Russia certainly has made very thorough preparations, but perhaps they must also be surprised by such draconian sanctions. It is true that their economies are being ravaged by sanctions, but Europe and the United States will also suffer significant damage from their own economic sanctions. It seems that neither side benefits, the only one who benefits in this situation and I think is none other than China.

Of course, Europe did not expect such actions from Russia. Russia began to prepare for large-scale sanctions after 2014, although then they were very small compared to 2022. I think they prepared not quite correctly, because all external assets were blocked, which greatly broke its economy.

It is self-harm for the European Union. Unlike the US (which is a net exporter of petroleum and natural gas), the EU imports most of its oil and gas and the heavy industries depend heavily on these energy imports. On top of that, many of the refineries in Germany and some of the other EU nations are designed to process the Russian crude grades. In order to process crude from US or some other region, they need to undergo expensive renovations. Phasing out gas is even more troublesome. EU doesn't even have a large number of LNG terminals.

No option for the EU would be better than Russia, The German government also recently announced that it will stop importing Russian oil from the end of this year and stop relying on gas according to the European route. But they never mentioned a replacement, who would replace the Russian oil supply for them. It seems that all they are saying is to intimidate Russia, they cannot find an alternative.

Yes, rasa is doing crime in the whole world cause they want to go leading position but still, the USA has a democracy for that reason russia cant do anything cause the world democracy is a fair system now.

The bitter truth is everybody only care about their own interest. Russian fuel is cheap and is located right next to the EU which makes it reliable too. You said there are many alternatives but can you show us some of them? Don't you think there are plenty of minds that are sitting there to find a good alternative to Russian fuel? Why didn't they find that yet?

Look what experts say:

Maybe Russia also calculated but these reactions in my opinion are beyond their calculations. The fighting situation shows no sign of abating and EU countries are planning to reduce their energy dependence on Russia earlier than expected to make sanctions more effective.

The redirection of oil and gas supplies to China and Asian countries will take some time, but Europe's search for alternative Russian sources remains unresolved. I don't know how they will do it, but now I see the EU as deadlocked as Russia if the two sides stop cooperating.

For sure Russia didn't expected such a severe reaction from the EU and the US. EU is overdependent on Russian oil and gas, and yet they are talking about completely phasing out Russian purchases. I don't know how practical is this, but if implemented it can severely impact Russia. The good thing for Russia is that oil and natural gas prices are at all time high, and they are still profiting out from their oil/gas exports despite the steep discounts. And diverting the supplies to China is going to take a lot of time, and I am not even sure whether it is possible.

I'm sure when Russia dared to invade Ukraine then they already knew bad things including sanctions from Europe, but because Russia is an oil and gas producing country and has good relations with China, they are not worried if Europe imposes sanctions, and at this time Russia is not too bothered with sanctions because Europe can never be firm on Russia.

Although EU always wanted to diversify their source of energy. I was optimistic that Nord Stream 2 would further eliminate a future conflict between Russia and EU. But that didn't stopped Russian aggression towards Ukraine. Russia is risking billions of dollars on its Ukraine invasion while western Europe is bleeding itself from their own sanctions on Russia. In the long run, western Europe should be fine. Russian economy will continue to drop reason why it needs a deal as quick as possible while they still have some cards to negotiate. The more arms will continue to arrive in Ukraine, the more difficult for the Russians.

   

 

Just checked the price difference on Russian crude oil, and it is inching towards the $40 per barrel level. Saudi crude is trading at $110 per barrel, while the Russian crude is being sold at $70 per barrel. Even at this level, the Russian treasury is receiving a lot of foreign currency through tax receipts (almost 90% of the revenue above $27 per barrel goes as tax, if I am not wrong). In order to damage the Russian economy, the price level of Russian crude should come down to $40-$45 levels, and looking at the current scenario, that is very unlikely.

This is because Russia has the power to suppress Europe, as we know that Russia is a producer of oil and gas which is supplied to Europe, Europe's dependence on Russian gas and oil has made Europe powerless by whatever Russia did, even a few years ago when Russia raised gas and oil prices significantly but European countries could only follow suit.

This is the biggest mistake!!
1. Putin was absolutely sure that the US/EU confrontation would not allow them to coordinately introduce such a number and such sanctions. He was absolutely sure that his obedient pet dogs like Merkel, Macron and similar politicians, bought or caught on the hook of compromising evidence, would destroy any US initiatives regarding sanctions. It turned out - miscalculated. Even these politicians, having seen the scale of sadism with which Putin is waging a terrorist war against Ukraine, realized that this must be resisted.
2. Putin, being a petty tyrant, always demanded from his entourage only that information that caressed his ears. His entourage decided - why do something if you can just keep the crazy Fuhrer in an information bubble and give him fairy tales that he likes. This is how it turned out in the end - both about the stable powerful economy of Russia, and about the second most powerful army in the world, and about "Ukraine does not have its own army, and everyone will scatter when they see our army"

Russia's readiness to resist the current sanctions, which, although quite powerful, are not yet completely complete, is another myth of Russian propaganda. It is calculated on the fact that the international community, which also suffers certain losses from them, will get tired and lift these sanctions. Russia is not ready for them at all. Recently, the State Duma of Russia was surprised to learn that even ordinary nails are not manufactured in Russia. What can we say about high technologies.
During the war with Ukraine and heavy losses in military equipment (only Russia lost almost 800 tanks in Ukraine), Uralvagonzavod, which produces tanks, was forced to stop in Russia. All due to the fact that the supply of some components from abroad has stopped. And so it is with almost everything. In Russia, in the presence of the forests of Siberia, even their own paper is not made. They are used to selling oil and gas, but no one even thought about industry and a closed production cycle. By the end of the year, we will be able to see the results of the sanctions in all their glory.

Its more about wheat then gas reserves I think.   Even UK has gas reserves available to drill and extract, the only thing about Ukraine having gas is to close down that resource as being an competition but across the world substantial reserves would remain anyway like Brazil and Australian have (newly established) vast amounts available to ship out as LNG.   Across land and via Pipeline perhaps Ukraine is a slightly more available resource but I dont think thats enough motivation for a war.
  Wheat supplies to Egypt and the middle east is vital to their economy as it feeds the poor via government subsidy so that would be more vital and just in general the ports Ukraine has are key.  Also Crimea without its attachment to the mainland has trouble getting various basics like drinking water, its cut off apparently and securing regions of Ukraine close by is no loss for Russia even if they do not conquer the whole country.

I also could not agree that Russia had planned the war long ago. You could say that there was a prediction of a war going on between Russia and Ukraine over the issues.
Not only Russia or Ukraine but also full international politics could predict that war was imminent.

Russia had already predicted the war and realized what sanctions could be imposed on it.
And maybe that's why he's ready to face all the sanctions.
It is the countries that have imposed sanctions, but in some cases, they will be also face problems.

E.g.
1. We know how rich Russia is in natural gas and fuel oil. Now European countries can cut gas and fuel imports to hurt Russia's economy. But they will suffer. The oil crisis will hit some countries because oil and gas imported from Russia meet one-third of the country's demand. And alternative routes other than imports from Russia have been considered. But finding an alternative road is not so easy. Until then, the countries will face many problems. Especially Germany.

2. Russia can be called food grain and reserves. And if their food grain exports are also banned, there will be food crises in many countries.

Russia's move means it will not withdraw from the war without completely crippling Ukraine and occupying it. But this is not the only loss to Ukraine, Russia itself, however, is facing losses.

Because even if Russia started the war,
Ukraine, awakened by the indomitable will to save itself, has begun to retaliate, and no one can stop them when a nation fights for its own survival, for its own independence.
As a result, countless people in Ukraine are dying, and Russia's military power is dwindling.

Moreover, Russia and Ukraine are the first major importers of food.
Therefore, as a result of continuous war, food grains and croplands will be destroyed and there will be a shortage of food grains. And there will be a crisis of food grains and an increase in prices all over the world.
In this way, the inflation problem will go one step further.

It is imposing sanctions on various European countries and Russia. Notable among them are the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan. And more sanctions are expected to follow.

Now the question is why the sanctions did not go the way of implementation? In this case, it can be said that there is a lack of unity.

Russia has some problems with almost all of the countries that are imposing sanctions. There are also a number of countries with which Russia has good relations, such as Italy and Austria, that are reluctant to impose any sanctions against Russia.