Russia Was Prepared to Withstand Sanctions. Why Wasn't Europe Prepared to Impose - page 4.

DrBeer

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Quote from: RealMalatesta on April 04, 2022, 05:14:59 PM

Quote from: DrBeer on April 04, 2022, 11:02:34 AM

There is a nuance that you did not take into account. North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba are small countries, countries where life is bad are a common thing. Iran cannot be called a small country, but after the overthrow of the secular government, it turned into a virtually medieval country, with a tough, totalitarian government, where a low standard of living is commonplace. This time. Two - such a number of sanctions, with such a variety as in Russia, are not and have not been in the listed countries. They also do not have the collapse of the army, and the loss of confidence in the authorities. There are many more differences. And most importantly, Russia needs to maintain a huge number of security forces, to contain internal tensions, it is necessary to support "Putin's friends" who have lost hundreds of billions of dollars, it is necessary to contain at least 100 million biomass, which, although used to living at the bottom, can start a revolution, to replace an unsuccessful king with another king. Therefore, sanctions for Russia-have a devastating effect, for the countries you listed-an uncomfortable effect.

Iran could have been doing better as well, and technically speaking it has been doing fine compared to places like Cuba or Venezuela, so I think your example is correct that it can't be done to bigger nations.

I have to say Russia is not even a "decent" nation, it is a huge one so trying to do it to them was a bad idea from the start and I get that, I understand that if you want to do sanctions to a huge nation, you are forgetting that the world needs a lot from that nation and this time it was energy, if you do that to any other nation, you would face some other problem but it is a problem nevertheless. That is what I really can't stress enough why the sanctions failed, because world needs energy from Russia.

Once again about the "huge". say - and for example the Congo - "a huge, great country"? Or, for example, Vietnam is a "huge country"? And Nigeria?
The first 2 countries - fully correspond to the "scale" of Russia in terms of population. Nigeria - exceeds 2 times Russia. Where is the greatness of Russia? In territory? I'll tell you a secret - 70% + of this territory IS NOT INVOLVED AT ALL, and ARE NOT OPENED !!! You didn't know? These territories are not suitable for life, there is nothing useful or strategically important there! So greatness is very "inflated"

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Quote from: TheNineClub on April 06, 2022, 03:05:41 AM

The ''west'' was not preparing for this, for sure, because the threat of war on the European continent was so unimaginable (at least in this part of Europe) that they completely ignored the threat. However, it's not just the European countries ignoring it, the countries that are big importers of grain from Ukraine and Russia also were caught off guard with Yemen and Egipt being at risk the most, but also China, who will not feel the issue that much, but still had huge imports of grain from Ukraine. However, whatever preparations Russia made for imminent sanctions, that does not mean that they won't be severely affected by Europe turning away from its oil and gas exports in the near future. Especially if Russia loses the annexed Ukrainian territory that is filled with natural resources.

Possible, it could be a failure of the West, particularly the US again. Their intelligence gathering, the whole network has failed them because they think that Putin is not willing to take the risk and go to war. But we all know that Putin is good in playing around. And maybe at the background he has been targeting the war itself. Sanctions are not going to work if Russia will find a way to circumvent it. And I don't think that Russia is going to accept defeat here.

TheNineClub

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The ''west'' was not preparing for this, for sure, because the threat of war on the European continent was so unimaginable (at least in this part of Europe) that they completely ignored the threat. However, it's not just the European countries ignoring it, the countries that are big importers of grain from Ukraine and Russia also were caught off guard with Yemen and Egipt being at risk the most, but also China, who will not feel the issue that much, but still had huge imports of grain from Ukraine. However, whatever preparations Russia made for imminent sanctions, that does not mean that they won't be severely affected by Europe turning away from its oil and gas exports in the near future. Especially if Russia loses the annexed Ukrainian territory that is filled with natural resources.

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Quote from: RealMalatesta on April 04, 2022, 05:14:59 PM

That is what I really can't stress enough why the sanctions failed, because world needs energy from Russia.

The strategic mistake of the United Europe was Germany's decision to abandon nuclear energy, under pressure from environmentalists and against the backdrop of the Fukushima accident. France did not make this mistake and retained its network of nuclear power plants, but Germany is the locomotive of the European Union with a very developed energy-intensive industry, and by abandoning nuclear energy, it has made itself energetically insecure and very dependent on energy supplies from Russia. Wind turbines and solar panels are too unreliable to be seriously relied upon, they are a good additional dessert, but not a main course.

Even a complete energy embargo from the West will not force Putin to abandon his plans, because his interests in Ukraine lie predominantly not in the economic plane. At the same time, a complete energy embargo would be immediate economic suicide for the European Union.

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Quote from: justdimin on April 05, 2022, 05:46:16 PM

This isn't something they "planned", I mean of course they probably knew what they would do "in case..." type of situation, but they lived with this idea basically. Ukraine had places where there were plenty of Russians, and places where basically Russia is loved like crazy, and they wanted to get those places. Obviously it doesn't make sense for Ukraine to give their lands to Russia, so this means both knew that they would be in a war one day or another.

This doesn't mean they knew when it would happen, but they definitely knew that one day it would happen. If you consider that as planned, then it was planned, but I would say being ready, and not planned. Planned means they aimed at doing this, being ready means they would if something happened but won't if that won't happen.

Right now the politics in Ukraine is dominated by nationalists from Western part of that country, and the Eastern Ukrainians feel alienated. And this is not a new issue. The discrimination against the Easterners started in 2004, when the US-backed coup installed Viktor Yushchenko as the president of Ukraine. If Ukraine want to survive as a country, it needs to respect the rights of it's Russian speaking population. People like Zelensky are opposed to that idea and want their views imposed across all of Ukraine. And now we are able to see the end results.

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Quote from: Flexystar on April 05, 2022, 04:24:03 AM

Yeah, after reading this and seeing the graphs it really seems russia was planning this since very long? What if everyone today is just blind folded since the last Ukriane attack 8 years ago? Russia might have built the internal strategy right after they backed up the previous war. They might have projected the whole plot for example, how europe will react with the war breakout, how america will react which is most rival country for them or other way round.

The steadiness is due to Russia's richness in the fossil resources. They know world wants them and specifically the neighbouring European countries. Europe surely created too much dependency on the Russia and all sudden the they went rogue.

I think it is one of those strategies for war where you press the most weak point of others and then torn them inside out.

This isn't something they "planned", I mean of course they probably knew what they would do "in case..." type of situation, but they lived with this idea basically. Ukraine had places where there were plenty of Russians, and places where basically Russia is loved like crazy, and they wanted to get those places. Obviously it doesn't make sense for Ukraine to give their lands to Russia, so this means both knew that they would be in a war one day or another.

This doesn't mean they knew when it would happen, but they definitely knew that one day it would happen. If you consider that as planned, then it was planned, but I would say being ready, and not planned. Planned means they aimed at doing this, being ready means they would if something happened but won't if that won't happen.

Flexystar

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Yeah, after reading this and seeing the graphs it really seems russia was planning this since very long? What if everyone today is just blind folded since the last Ukriane attack 8 years ago? Russia might have built the internal strategy right after they backed up the previous war. They might have projected the whole plot for example, how europe will react with the war breakout, how america will react which is most rival country for them or other way round.

The steadiness is due to Russia's richness in the fossil resources. They know world wants them and specifically the neighbouring European countries. Europe surely created too much dependency on the Russia and all sudden the they went rogue.

I think it is one of those strategies for war where you press the most weak point of others and then torn them inside out.

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Quote from: lovesmayfamilis on April 04, 2022, 10:11:00 AM

Quote from: Darker45 on April 04, 2022, 09:53:01 AM

. And I am very much willing to put my money where my mouth is. I am willing to bet for this. Are you?

I will find where to spend my money, and if you are such a "patriot" who watches fake news, donate to someone who tries so hard to make you believe in them. I say again, time will tell who is right and where, it’s not worth setting deadlines, but these posts will remain, and you have the right to find them and then think how stupid you were.

I was just saying it in case you are that convinced of your views.

I am not really a patriot although, of course, I love my country. But I am not a hard fan of the US and the EU and the enemies of Russia. I am just looking at things and trying to understand them as objectively as possible. And if there are fake news, I am more than sure they are more widespread in Russia than outside. At the very least, the media in the US and many parts of the world are less of a state tool for propaganda than those in Russia.

We will see in the coming weeks, but, so far, I am convinced that Russia won't be able to take Ukraine however prepared they claim to be.

RealMalatesta

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Quote from: DrBeer on April 04, 2022, 11:02:34 AM

There is a nuance that you did not take into account. North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba are small countries, countries where life is bad are a common thing. Iran cannot be called a small country, but after the overthrow of the secular government, it turned into a virtually medieval country, with a tough, totalitarian government, where a low standard of living is commonplace. This time. Two - such a number of sanctions, with such a variety as in Russia, are not and have not been in the listed countries. They also do not have the collapse of the army, and the loss of confidence in the authorities. There are many more differences. And most importantly, Russia needs to maintain a huge number of security forces, to contain internal tensions, it is necessary to support "Putin's friends" who have lost hundreds of billions of dollars, it is necessary to contain at least 100 million biomass, which, although used to living at the bottom, can start a revolution, to replace an unsuccessful king with another king. Therefore, sanctions for Russia-have a devastating effect, for the countries you listed-an uncomfortable effect.

Iran could have been doing better as well, and technically speaking it has been doing fine compared to places like Cuba or Venezuela, so I think your example is correct that it can't be done to bigger nations.

I have to say Russia is not even a "decent" nation, it is a huge one so trying to do it to them was a bad idea from the start and I get that, I understand that if you want to do sanctions to a huge nation, you are forgetting that the world needs a lot from that nation and this time it was energy, if you do that to any other nation, you would face some other problem but it is a problem nevertheless. That is what I really can't stress enough why the sanctions failed, because world needs energy from Russia.

Ozero

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Quote from: lovesmayfamilis on March 30, 2022, 03:16:32 AM

For me, everything is clear. Europe and America are accustomed to considering themselves the leading countries that can very easily manipulate all other countries. But the pressure on Russia did not begin even in 2014; hatred for Russians is born deep in history. But as the Russians say: "everything that does not kill us makes us stronger" Therefore, the Russian government, feeling another negative influence, as well as a dictatorship from the West, has always understood that it is necessary to prepare for the fact that sooner or later, this abscess of hatred will breakthrough. And as an example of today's events, the Russians were right.
They are ready for all sanctions, as they probably worked out all the situations that could happen in the future. But all other countries, mistakenly taking on the role of head of the world, did not take any action, always thinking that power and strength would always be theirs. But now everyone understands that this Russia is not so weak, for which it was taken earlier.

Putin and his entourage have always stated that they are not afraid of US and European sanctions. Russia is doing the same now, although after a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, this time the imposed sanctions became very tough. However, many, even in Russia itself, admit that Putin clearly did not expect such a one-sidedness of the world community and such harsh sanctions this time. Only a few weeks have passed and we already see that the sanctions are working and Russia is becoming a pariah country very quickly. Given that Russia is suffering a military defeat in Ukraine, it is very likely that the above proverb will work this time as well, and the current sanctions will still kill Russia as a state. This will be seen by the end of this year.

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Quote from: Darker45 on April 04, 2022, 09:53:01 AM

....
Sanctions can only do so much. We all know that. I doubt it can fully convert a country. Heavily-sanctioned countries like North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, and others are still standing on their feet. Russia is apparently richer than these countries so we won't be expecting it to bow down either. However, this doesn't mean that they're ready or have prepared for it. It's just that crazy leaders like Kim Jong Un and Putin couldn't care less about sanctions. These sanctions are not taking any luxury or power from them. Neither Kim nor Maduro nor Putin is deprived of a sumptuous meal because of their madness. But their people are.

More than a month since the invasion, instead of successfully taking over Ukraine, setbacks are now seen. I am certain that even with another month of extension in this foolishness, Russia will not be able to take Ukraine despite all the propaganda that they have calculated and are ready for everything. And I am very much willing to put my money where my mouth is. I am willing to bet for this. Are you?

There is a nuance that you did not take into account. North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba are small countries, countries where life is bad are a common thing. Iran cannot be called a small country, but after the overthrow of the secular government, it turned into a virtually medieval country, with a tough, totalitarian government, where a low standard of living is commonplace. This time. Two - such a number of sanctions, with such a variety as in Russia, are not and have not been in the listed countries. They also do not have the collapse of the army, and the loss of confidence in the authorities. There are many more differences. And most importantly, Russia needs to maintain a huge number of security forces, to contain internal tensions, it is necessary to support "Putin's friends" who have lost hundreds of billions of dollars, it is necessary to contain at least 100 million biomass, which, although used to living at the bottom, can start a revolution, to replace an unsuccessful king with another king. Therefore, sanctions for Russia-have a devastating effect, for the countries you listed-an uncomfortable effect.

lovesmayfamilis

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Quote from: Darker45 on April 04, 2022, 09:53:01 AM

. And I am very much willing to put my money where my mouth is. I am willing to bet for this. Are you?

I will find where to spend my money, and if you are such a "patriot" who watches fake news, donate to someone who tries so hard to make you believe in them. I say again, time will tell who is right and where, it’s not worth setting deadlines, but these posts will remain, and you have the right to find them and then think how stupid you were.

Darker45

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Quote from: lovesmayfamilis on April 04, 2022, 05:20:10 AM

Quote from: Darker45 on April 03, 2022, 10:15:06 PM

I agree that the western countries and their allies were caught unprepared. And it's primarily because they probably thought it was unimaginable for Russia to invade Ukraine. To take a contested territory would be possible but to invade the entire country was perhaps out of their minds. This is the modern era, after all. They probably failed in their assessment of Putin. They simply underestimated his madness.

On Russia's side, however, I also don't think they were prepared. They definitely underestimated Ukraine and its defense capabilities. They overestimated their troops' capabilities. They underestimated the allies' reaction. If they were preparing for this war for the last decade or so, they should have pulled out their huge sums of money from European banks prior to the attack. They should already have detached themselves from SWIFT. They should have established much stronger markets outside the enemies' territories. Their oligarchs should have already been warned earlier of the possible sanctions.

Russia has lost its adviser to you. Only you could tell her what she should have done and what she shouldn't have done. And Putin, whom you think is crazy, has put Europe in an uncomfortable position today. Although grain supplies will also run out soon, which will make you think a little differently since I think that the lack of gas does not reflect on you.
Did you hear Biden let it slip? Not? He advised everyone not to worry, that any military situation is always in America's interest. But what about Europe, everyone will ask? Biden doesn't care. America supports war always only in its own interests.
Therefore, one should not consider people who lead countries as idiots, everything was calculated long ago, since these disagreements were not born a month ago. Russia knew what to expect and from whom, and as you can see, it was ready for anything.

Sanctions can only do so much. We all know that. I doubt it can fully convert a country. Heavily-sanctioned countries like North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, and others are still standing on their feet. Russia is apparently richer than these countries so we won't be expecting it to bow down either. However, this doesn't mean that they're ready or have prepared for it. It's just that crazy leaders like Kim Jong Un and Putin couldn't care less about sanctions. These sanctions are not taking any luxury or power from them. Neither Kim nor Maduro nor Putin is deprived of a sumptuous meal because of their madness. But their people are.

More than a month since the invasion, instead of successfully taking over Ukraine, setbacks are now seen. I am certain that even with another month of extension in this foolishness, Russia will not be able to take Ukraine despite all the propaganda that they have calculated and are ready for everything. And I am very much willing to put my money where my mouth is. I am willing to bet for this. Are you?

lovesmayfamilis

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Quote from: Darker45 on April 03, 2022, 10:15:06 PM

I agree that the western countries and their allies were caught unprepared. And it's primarily because they probably thought it was unimaginable for Russia to invade Ukraine. To take a contested territory would be possible but to invade the entire country was perhaps out of their minds. This is the modern era, after all. They probably failed in their assessment of Putin. They simply underestimated his madness.

On Russia's side, however, I also don't think they were prepared. They definitely underestimated Ukraine and its defense capabilities. They overestimated their troops' capabilities. They underestimated the allies' reaction. If they were preparing for this war for the last decade or so, they should have pulled out their huge sums of money from European banks prior to the attack. They should already have detached themselves from SWIFT. They should have established much stronger markets outside the enemies' territories. Their oligarchs should have already been warned earlier of the possible sanctions.

Russia has lost its adviser to you. Only you could tell her what she should have done and what she shouldn't have done. And Putin, whom you think is crazy, has put Europe in an uncomfortable position today. Although grain supplies will also run out soon, which will make you think a little differently since I think that the lack of gas does not reflect on you.
Did you hear Biden let it slip? Not? He advised everyone not to worry, that any military situation is always in America's interest. But what about Europe, everyone will ask? Biden doesn't care. America supports war always only in its own interests.
Therefore, one should not consider people who lead countries as idiots, everything was calculated long ago, since these disagreements were not born a month ago. Russia knew what to expect and from whom, and as you can see, it was ready for anything.

Darker45

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I agree that the western countries and their allies were caught unprepared. And it's primarily because they probably thought it was unimaginable for Russia to invade Ukraine. To take a contested territory would be possible but to invade the entire country was perhaps out of their minds. This is the modern era, after all. They probably failed in their assessment of Putin. They simply underestimated his madness.

On Russia's side, however, I also don't think they were prepared. They definitely underestimated Ukraine and its defense capabilities. They overestimated their troops' capabilities. They underestimated the allies' reaction. If they were preparing for this war for the last decade or so, they should have pulled out their huge sums of money from European banks prior to the attack. They should already have detached themselves from SWIFT. They should have established much stronger markets outside the enemies' territories. Their oligarchs should have already been warned earlier of the possible sanctions.

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and the winner will be China 🇨🇳

If Putin survives he will be China’s big bitch and North Korea 🇰🇵 will remain China’s little bitch.

I give a China Russia North Korea axis of power about a 90% shot of happening.

Putting pressure on Japan,South Korea and Taiwan

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Quote from: gantez on April 03, 2022, 06:43:06 PM

Quote from: Lizzylove1 on April 02, 2022, 04:51:39 PM

I don't think Europe actually envisage this war and the dimension it's taking, otherwise they would have longed source for alternative energy from Russia. Putin knew directly fighting him would mean hell, he knew it would be economic war, so he was better prepared.

Putin is only priding himself on the Oil and gas that he is supplying to Europe and what happens if at the time of this heat of war, they get another supplier, Russia will be subjected to more sanctions and the experience wi!l be very bad for the Russian economy and people. Europe actually didn't see that it will get into this and that Russia won't have to cut off supply from them.

Things are unpredictable with them, but now that Russia is backing out in some parts of Ukraine, I believe the sanctions can be lessen now and reconciliation are more possible to happen. Russia have a huge natural sources that EU countries need, but of course other supplies can still be get from other country its just that they have to adjust for the cost of it and deal with it. This is the consequences of many greedy countries, at the expense of ordinary people.

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Quote from: gantez on April 01, 2022, 01:24:01 PM

The war has gone into it second month and yet no solution is coming to resolve the war for peace and stability to return into the area and production of Oil and gas to be restored. Prices are going high and people are suffering. They are discussing to evaquate civilians and that suppose to mean more fight ? This is alarming, refugees are created and destabilizing the other countries that are neighbours. Russia is showing EU that it is more prepared for the war but this has to stop.

This explains that the war from the beginning was not of a military nature and that Russia has been preparing for almost the past decade to confront the West in an attempt to expand its influence, similar to what the Soviet Union was in the past.
Economic war in the form of mutual sanctions directly affects all economies of the world, which have become closely related to each other. Note that the most profited country in the actual economic situation is China by its power to not enforce sanctions against Russia as the world can't apply other sanctions to China due to their vital needs from China .

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Quote from: Lizzylove1 on April 02, 2022, 04:51:39 PM

I don't think Europe actually envisage this war and the dimension it's taking, otherwise they would have longed source for alternative energy from Russia. Putin knew directly fighting him would mean hell, he knew it would be economic war, so he was better prepared.

Putin is only priding himself on the Oil and gas that he is supplying to Europe and what happens if at the time of this heat of war, they get another supplier, Russia will be subjected to more sanctions and the experience wi!l be very bad for the Russian economy and people. Europe actually didn't see that it will get into this and that Russia won't have to cut off supply from them.

The Sceptical Chymist

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Quote from: Hydrogen on March 29, 2022, 06:18:17 PM

The author of this piece goes on to criticize europe for not greening its economy to become less reliant on russian oil. I myself am not a fan of these bold criticisms, unless they come before hindsight being 20/20.

I'm going to play devil's advocate here and ask this: Could you think of a better time to criticize Europe for not lessening its dependence on Russian oil? Had the author written that prior to the current invasion (and I'm not even sure he didn't), what impact do you suppose it would have had? None as far as I would predict, because as you pointed out, hindsight is indeed 20/20--and in addition to that, the criticism would probably just come off as inflammatory rhetoric against Russia.

The way I see it is that it's the big global oil companies that are standing in the way of greener energy consumption, and until their stranglehold over car manufacturers and every other industry that currently relies on oil and oil byproducts is loosened, we're never going to see cities powered by solar energy and roads filled with nothing but electric cars. And none of that is Russia's fault alone, of course. There's a hell of a lot of blame to go around, and you don't even have to look that far to find the culprits.

Topic: Russia Was Prepared to Withstand Sanctions. Why Wasn't Europe Prepared to Impose - page 4. (Read 809 times)