Topic: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia? - page 25. (Read 14175 times)

great news

Russia is preparing to shut down refineries due to European sanctions.
Russian oil refineries are preparing for a forced stoppage of production due to the European embargo, under which oil products will fall after oil from February 5.
The downtime plan for oil refining, the largest manufacturing industry, which accounts for 15% of industrial production in Russia, will be a record in the history of available statistics in 2023, Reuters reports, citing data from Refinitiv Eikon.
In total, 7.9% of refinery capacity, or 26.55 million tons in terms of crude oil, will go to downtime and preventive repairs - 5.9 million tons more than in 2022. Actual downtime, as a rule, is twice the plan, recalls Reuters: at the end of last year, it amounted to almost 39.2 million tons.

The largest amount of idle capacity - 12.3% - is planned for Rosneft, Russia's largest mining company, which accounts for every second barrel extracted from the subsoil. At Lukoil and Gazprom Neft, the figures are several times lower - 5 and 4%, respectively.
In total, refineries that employ 120,000 Russians are preparing to cut production by 15% this year, a source familiar with the government's plans told Reuters earlier.
Sanctions on oil products, which Russia has traditionally exported to Europe, will have a much greater impact than an oil embargo, he explained: it is unlikely that it will be possible to collect a “shadow fleet” for diesel and gasoline, since the parties are usually smaller in volume, and in order to smuggling them into Asia would require many more ships.

According to the IEA, Russia exported on average about 1.2 million barrels of oil products per day in 2022. The closed European market will bring down volumes by 5 times - by the end of the first quarter, about a million barrels of daily exports will be left without buyers, BCS analyst Ronald Smith estimates.
Russia will not be able to produce oil products “for storage”: there are simply no storage facilities in the country where it would be possible to fill in the unsold. One option is to export more unrefined oil, writes Reuters. But how to do this remains a mystery: even the current volumes - 3-4 million barrels per day - are kept by oilmen at the price of huge discounts, offering barrels at half price. And such a policy “runs counter to the interests of the budget” and “cannot continue indefinitely,” says Marcel Salikhov, head of the Institute of Energy and Finance.

https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/01/27/rossiya-gotovitsya-ostanovit-npz-iz-za-evropeiskih-sanktsii-a32097

What a strange position you have, dear
You have a difficult life, inflation is rising, living standards are falling. The reason for inflationary processes is the instability of the world market and the Indian economy as well. The reason is the terrorist war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine (military / terrorist aggression), and economic terrorism against the whole world. BUT. At the same time, you applaud Russia and support it. And thereby making it worse not only for the whole world, but also for themselves and their India.
Do you consider this normal behavior? more precisely - is it adequate?
Some kind of intellectual masochism to be honest ))

Your country managed to deal with the crisis in a way better than many of the analysts anticipated. Good for you. For people like me, who are residing in third world nations, the main concern is to keep the inflation rates stable. A few years back, annual inflation rate was 3% to 4%. Now it has risen to around 6%, and the ongoing war has a made its impact. You may not be freezing your asses over there, but here we are struggling to cope up with the high prices for gasoline. Crude oil was trading at $40 per barrel two years back. Now the prices have more than doubled to $90 per barrel. Citizens of third world nations are paying the price for a war in which they are not playing any part. 

They annexed Crimea 8 years ago and no one lift the finger. If they weren't a nuclear power and a threat, NATO would already bomb the shit out of occupied territories long time ago like they usually do to the countries that pose no serious threat to them. Never underestimate Russian dictators willingness to sacrifice their own people for their crazy plans, and west is well aware of that.


I am sure that some on this thread are very disappointed with how things are developing and that we are not freezing our asses off over here.


Of course not, that's what I am talking about. Narrative is that if anyone (in this case Russia) launches a tactical nuke or two that it automatically means nuclear holocaust and end of the world, while situation is more complicated than that and I wouldn't put my money on UK willing to sacrifice 60+ million people and US 300+ million for another country.

The biggest challenge Europe is facing is the competition. A large portion of Europe's economy depends on access to cheap and reliable energy, when that is disrupted (even a little bit) the competition from other countries (like China, India, and a dozen other countries) take over their markets very fast. Hence the deindustrialization of Europe.

I've said this many months ago when they were celebrating the fact that Russia was selling its oil/gas to non-European countries at a big discount. There was nothing to celebrate about because that was the first step of ruining EU economy.
This is why we see today that Europe's economy is at least $1 trillion smaller and continues shrinking while many other countries are expanding their economies.

The same arguments could be made about defeating Russia in any other manner (SRBMs and simple tanks, weak rockets, etc.) in which case I see your scenarios are still valid since a losing Russia could still decide to go nuts and use a tactical nuke since this is not a war Russia can afford to lose.
BTW this is exactly why those who aren't benefiting from this war always suggest a diplomatic solution to this conflict.

We are talking about nuclear holocaust. In such scenario, even a 1% chance should not be taken lightly. IMO, here are the possibilities:

1. NATO providing Ukraine with ballistic missiles (50% chance in the next 6 months) - Russian infra gets hit, thousands of civilian deaths.

2. In case scenario #1 realizes, Russia will retaliate (~100% chance). They may use tactical nukes, or they may go for other options. In case they use tactical nukes, then even their strongest allies (Iran, China.etc) may turn against them. So in case Russia retaliate after scenario #1, I would assume there is a 10% chance that they will use tactical nukes. 90% chance is that they will go for other options (thermobaric bombs, white phosphorus munitions.etc). 

3. In case scenario #2a (nuclear) get realized, I would assume that there is a ~25% chance that NATO would nuke Russia.

So as per my wild calculations, the chances are 50% x 80% x 10% x 25% = 1.25% (significant enough to be taken seriously)

I actually believe that maybe even very sure that gas, oil is one of the triggers for a war that will continue to be prolonged, because an embargo will be rewarded with an embargo and all activities of any kind can be sure that there will be retaliation.
it is clear that both sides will always be assisted by their allies as well and that cannot be prevented anymore, all of this obviously eventually leads to a situation that becomes uncertain and difficult to predict in the future.

really don't really believe that all their allies who have been helping all this time really hope that the problem of the Russian invasion of Ukraine will trigger WW3. because they know that if this happens, world civilization will experience something unimaginable due to the effects of weapons of destruction.

actually the negotiating table is the best way but it always fails to happen, many have tried to make it happen. because by negotiating to seek mutual change with the aim of mutual benefit is the best solution.

as worried as you are, friends, that 2023 will be a time that will make this problem worse, as bad as the world economic crisis situation.
but I am always optimistic that there will be significant changes in the future even though many doubt it.

#NoWAR

I will not rush to the conclusion that Europe is doing well without Russia's energy because, from what I have seen in the media, they are not doing very well. If they're really doing as well as you claim, their inflation hasn't been in double digits for the past 40 years, and things aren't getting any better either. Russia does not have an energy monopoly but is the most perfect supplier to Europe, if Europe had a better supply, they would be different now.

Putin and his entourage are now in despair and are looking for a worthy way out of the failed war in Ukraine. Russia has several options and they are either bad or very bad for her. Therefore, Putin is simply hoping for a miracle, for a change in the situation in the world in his favor. But the United States and Europe, by making decisions on the supply of their main tanks, have already made it clear that there will be no compromises. Recently, Putin was still given the opportunity to save face in the event of the actual defeat of Russia. The decision to supply tanks to Ukraine (and the issue of F-16 fighters is already being decided) indicates that Putin has missed the last opportunity.

In Russia, the people have been zombified for a very long time by Putin's propaganda, which distorted objective reality, created the image of a fictional enemy and the illusion of the power and invincibility of the Russian people. The problems that arose there were always tried to be solved from a position of strength, or threats to use it. But self-confidence and corruption have taken their toll. The Armed Forces of Ukraine brought Russia back to its current reality. Therefore, they are already slowly beginning to see clearly there. Based on this, the United States, the West, and Ukraine as well, make decisions in stages and in relation to the situation that has arisen. Therefore, it is possible that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will have to operate on the territory of Russia in the future. Already now, Ukraine is striking at military airfields, the accumulation of troops and equipment on the territory of Russia. Of course, Ukraine will stop when there are clear guarantees that Russia will not attack in the future. At the same time, the assurances of false Russia will not be taken into account.

Yeah they had
- the best tanks in the world
- the best planes in the world
- the best missiles in the world
- the best soldiers in the world

And despite what an illiterate analyst from Kugumbababumba University told us back in March about conquering the whole of Ukraine seems like none, absolutely none of the above were actually true. And since the same analyst who thought there were 40 days in a month is telling us how those are the best ICBM in the world, it's highly probably Russia has not a single rocket actually capable of lift-off, probably they will be more scared of trying to launch one than their adversaries.

This is just fear-mongering, they will not launch one because they don't want everyone to die, what they desperately want is to find a way of losing it without losing their positions and their money, if you think a bunch of cowards who hide in their bunkers who have not worked once in their lifetime and are having billions in wealth, used to be treated like kings will want to end it all just so the other side gets hurt it clear you have no idea what you're talking about. This works only for brainwashed terrorists that had nothing good in life, owned just their clothes, afford a meal a day, and hopped that by blowing up and taking someone with them they would live a different life in the afterlife, this is exactly the opposite, those guys don't want to also die! So, all those nukes are just fear-mongering!


Yeah? Remember the threats and how Kherson is Russian soil, the referendum, the whole mumbo jumbo? Crimean Bridge?
Bleah, Russia is just threats, the only time they act is when somebody is weaker than them or they think that's the case, which is not the case here!

Meanwhile, since the subject is about Gas and not nuclear, another step for the failure of freezing Europe:



Gas is 40% cheaper than it was a year ago before the war, deposits are at 76%, Germany will probably avoid recession completely, and the CPI index has gone to 50.2 for the first time since July, meaning that manufacturing activity is increasing!

I think that's what Russia wants us to think. Especially since it does not care about all the sanctions that have affected its economy in a deteriorating manner. Putin is defying his enemies by adopting a policy of ignoring him, even if that is the reason for the destruction of all of Russia before the destruction spreads to the rest of the world.
I think that Russia wants to convince the world that it will not give up its expansionist ambitions, whatever the cost. On the other hand, America is leading NATO countries towards further escalation, since the war is not on its soil, and it is considered the first beneficiary of fueling and maintaining this conflict.

While I do agree that Ukraine massively attacking infrastructure on Russian soil wouldn't help ending this war and it would probably make Russia retaliate via tactical nukes if they feel very threatened by it, I am not so sure that it would automatically cause ww3 and nuclear holocaust like everyone is assuming. Its easy to think that US or UK would automatically nuke Russia who would then nuke them, but when you think about it a little bit more, are you sure that they would be willing to sacrifice their almost entire population for the sake of another country? I honestly don't think so.

What's the point of supplying Ukraine with average weapons if the Russia isn't going to surrender? And if Ukraine is going to win the war, won't Russia use nuclear bombs? If there are no changes in Russia, the ww3 is just inevitable since there is no diplomatic way to finish this war because Russia wants to achieve it's goals while the Ukraine isn't going to give them territories, which of course Ukraine shouldn't give them.

I think that the USA and allies were trying to win some time, weaken Russia by supplying Ukraine and sacrificing Ukrainian soldiers and probably make/fund some inner changes in Russia that includes massive protests from the people inside but sadly that hasn't happened and more likely isn't going to happen in near future.
So, if this fails and seems it's going this way, then the only option would be to give advanced weapons to Ukraine to be able to bomb Russian territories. This is bad but inevitable, we have to understand it.

If Ukraine uses ballistic missiles to target Russian infrastructural facilities, then the latter in all probability will retaliate with nuclear strikes. And that will trigger a new world war, where no one is going to win. Even if NATO manages to nuke 90% of Russia's territory, the Russians will destroy NATO with nuclear weapons from the remaining part of their land. As of now, Russia has 5977 active nuclear weapons. They have some of the best ICBMs in the world. I guess they need less than 1% of that number to completely annihilate any life form from this planet.

In the end, if a nuclear war happens by any chance, then no one will win. All forms of life will be wiped off.

Russia is only blabbing just the way they always do, they have failed and will continue to fail. I dare them to try rubbish or even use light nuclear weapons if there would not be dire consequences. The world power is not afraid of nuclear war, they are only cautious and will never throw the first punch. Russia should try nonsense and see if it will not turn to dust.

Also, Europe is doing well without Russia's energy, though it was not easy to adjust at first, but they are doing well. The world will always survive without those tyrants, no country has a monopoly on anything.

That is the way to prolong the war and nothing about it is normal.

The only way to stop an invading force is to hit them where it hurts which is hitting Russian infrastructure on Russian soil.
Look at any other invasion in the history, they never end by fighting the war in the invaded territory. WW2 didn't end because Nazis were defeated in the front-lines kilometers outside Germany or for example the invasion of Yemen stopped the day the armed forces of Yemen managed to attack their invaders' infrastructure inside their own soil (eg. Aramco in Saudi Arabia, UAE airbases and US military bases in the region, etc.).

Of course that is not something that United States would ever allow Ukraine to do which is why they never send any strategically important weapons (eg. MBMs and LBMs) to Ukraine.

Today, Biden is due to make a statement about the supply of Abram's tanks to Ukraine, and Germany must decide on sending their Leopard tanks to Ukraine and allowing other countries to transfer these tanks to Ukraine. But this is not the way to escalate the war. This is a normal way of subduing an aggressor and forcing him to peace by inflicting a military defeat on him. The US and Europe have already understood that if Russia is not stopped now, it will go further to the Baltic countries, Poland and its other neighbors. Then hostilities will grow in scale and territory. There is simply no other way to stop Russian aggression. In fact, the Third World War is already underway on the territory of Ukraine and it was unleashed by the Putin regime in Russia. This is their choice and the Russian people will have to pay for it for many decades.

Earlier, Western countries offered Putin a plan to end the war, even with the possibility for Putin to retain power in Russia for some time. To do this, Putin must withdraw his troops from Ukraine as of February 23 last year, agree to the extradition of war criminals and reparations to Ukraine. At the same time, Crimea should be preparing for the return to Ukraine for seven years, the issue only of Donbass should be resolved through diplomacy. After the withdrawal of troops from Ukraine, Putin may be given a period of one year to resolve internal problems and hold elections in Russia. Otherwise, the West threatened to supply as much military equipment to Ukraine as necessary for the complete defeat of Russia and its capitulation. It looks like the peace plan didn't work.

I have read in the news that the EU is planning to supply Ukraine with 100 tanks in the near future, and Russia has warned that the consequences will be more serious if that happens. I am really worried about a small scale nuclear war that will break out, and it will be the trigger for world war 3, which is really worrying. This is an escalation of the war by Nato, they are trying to destroy Russia through Ukraine.

Well.... this is what we want. Let them fight against each other. In the end, both NATO and Russia will be weakened and this situation will allow other countries such as China and India to strengthen their respective economies.

So far, I have noticed the following consequences from the war:

1. Cheap crude oil for China, India and Turkey from Russia. Expensive crude for the EU from OPEC. Higher revenues for American shale oil producers.
2. Expensive natural gas for the EU, Japan and everyone else. Higher revenues for US shale gas producers and OPEC.
3. Higher electricity bills in the EU. Domestic consumers are not impacted, but heavy engineering and automobile manufacturing needs to scale back production. Advantage for China, as their products are more competitive.
4. More countries open to the idea of trading in currencies other than the USD
5. Countries with US treasury bonds in their reserves are wary about continuing with them