Topic: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia? - page 26. (Read 14450 times)

American to send tanks to  Ukraine  - Germany to send more weapon as per Poland request - this is surly a world war 3 in making
Russia wont stop and the NATO allies find a way to attack Russia

Well.. that is a matter of interpretation. Tens of thousands of "volunteers" from NATO nations are fighting against Russia in Ukraine (ex-army or serving members of the armed forces). More than $100 billion worth of weapons have been provided by NATO to Ukraine. Ukrainian soldiers are being trained in NATO nations. Informally, the war is between NATO and the Russian Federation. The only thing that hasn't happened yet is the use of nuclear weapons (and I am pretty damn sure that if that happens, then NATO will be going first). 

BTW, for the Ukrainian fans I have this:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-23/germany-still-years-away-from-replacing-russian-gas-capacity

I don't think so. NATO countries won't wage war against Russia (directly I mean, because they are already at war through proxy Ukraine). That would mean the WW3 will begin and immediately start the global nuclear conflict and that will be the end of the world as we know it.

The EU and the US are considering increasing aid to Ukraine because Russia is getting stronger and they want to end the war with a victory for Ukraine. Russia has issued warnings and if things do not stop, it is very likely that a bigger war will break out and the risk of World War 3 is getting closer. I really fear that 2023 will be a very bad year for us.

The President of the Republic of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, in my opinion, really does not want the troops of Belarus to participate in direct hostilities on the territory of Ukraine.  Alexander Lukashenko is a very experienced politician, a very cunning person who can pretend to be a simpleton, but always achieves his political goals. 

Based on this, most likely, the military personnel of the Republic of Belarus will not participate in combat clashes with Ukrainian military personnel. 

The UK, France and Germany will also not send their troops to Ukraine. 

As for Poland, it can send detachments of volunteers to participate in hostilities (such a scenario cannot, in my opinion, be ruled out).

I think with Belarus joining Russia - and China too
And UK, France, Germany and Poland joining Ukraine - this war will take a different turn - it will surely spread to the other countries and will create more desatster than only the discussed gas and oil issue

I would love to know who the new gas supplies to Europe are. I still haven't seen such news, maybe I missed it? As far as I know, Germany is building 4 more LNG import ports and will come into operation to reduce dependence on Russian natural gas. Besides, EU countries will reopen nuclear power plants. While Russia and China are building the gas pipelines will soon be operational, the Asian market will be the new market that Russia targets.
Falling oil prices will affect the entire OPEC+ bloc, not just Russia, so it is too early to say that it is having a negative impact on Russia. Let's wait and see the next move of OPEC+.

In my opinion, economics and geopolitics should not be confused.  Geopolitics in general is a very dangerous, aggressive pseudoscience. 

A respectable energy supplier must take care of its reputation and the comfort of its customers.  Russia had permanent paying customers (European countries, including Ukraine).  These clients carried out stable purchases of Russian gas and oil, thereby ensuring a regular flow of foreign currency to the budget. 

Yes, perhaps a country like the United States, which was afraid of the political union of Russia and Germany, did not like it very much.  In addition, the United States itself entered the market for the sale of liquefied gas (after which Russia became a trade competitor for them). 

However, a respectable businessman who does not pay attention to provocations and conscientiously fulfills all his contractual obligations is a very difficult target for the aggression of another country. 

At the same time, under no circumstances could this aggression be carried out through a direct military invasion of Russian territory.  This risk was zero.

Your problem is reading too much propaganda that it has taken away your ability to think for yourself. You don't even bother doing any research! If everything is so dandy then why the hell almost 2 million people are protesting in France? It's not just because of retirement age.

The cost of energy has gone up in Germany like anywhere else, the household bills on the other hand have gone up about 40% for electricity and 70% for heating according to official stats (only Germans know the real increase). But what the official stats don't tell you is that because Germany had a much bigger economy the German government is now spending hundreds of billions of euros to keep the household bills down. Something that will show up as higher inflation in near future.

Of course many small businesses in Germany haven't been so lucky like Vatter bakery with 35 branches that has had their gas bill rise 1200% and was at the brink of shutting down. Article is from September 2022 https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/19/recession-fears-germany-energy-costs-business-olaf-scholz-gas
Read the article, it has more eye opening stuff.

There are wars on ground and there are word war in the forum since day one.
We have discussed and yelled so much on each other supporting our countries and nothing has changed - war is going on lingering on - people are dying and bloodshed happening all over

Lie ! Show the utility bill of any today's household in germany?
I will clarify - the lies are INTENTIONAL and primitive! This is called "Soviet thinking" - this is when they stupidly, primitively lie, because they think that no one will check, or they think that there is no way to check, and they lie only in order to deceive ...
In the modern world, such behavior looks pathetic and primitive



Your problem is only that you want to pass yourself off as an "honest opponent", but in fact you are just replicating nonsense And a simple proof - and provide here photos of utility bills from Germany, for example, from Frankfurt am Main, Bonn , and what kind of provincial town? Only for 2 periods - for the beginning of 2022, and for December 2022? I answer in advance - DO NOT PROVIDE! You will say anything from the version “I don’t have any acquaintances there”, to “look at YouTube, a person shows”. But even having acquaintances in Germany, you will NEVER provide such documents, because after that you will have to admit in front of everyone - either you are not very smart and fall for any jokes, perceiving because of reality, or you are deliberately lying Try to prove the opposite? 

The war unleashed by the Kremlin against Ukraine has led to the fact that Russia has lost the levers of influence on the world economy, expressed primarily in its energy power. In particular, Europe was able to find new gas suppliers, while the Russian Federation itself fails to find new and commensurate markets. And the introduction of a price cap on Russian oil has led to the fact that the market began to focus on buyers, not sellers. In this connection, the oil influence of the Russian Federation also decreased. This is stated in the material of Yale scientists for Foreign Policy. It is noted: thus, it has already turned out that the world economy no longer needs Russia.

“Putin’s leverage on natural gas no longer exists because the world – and most importantly, Europe – no longer needs Russian gas. ... Putin no longer profits from gas sales, since his previous supplies were 150 billion cubic meters of gas by pipeline to Europe have been replaced by a measly 16 billion cubic meters to China and pocket money from global LNG sales barely enough to cover costs. Putin has no markets to replace anything close to a shortage,” the authors explain material.

At the same time, Putin's oil leverage is also losing power. To which he himself made considerable efforts. Gone are the days of fear that Putin will take Russian oil off the market, causing prices to skyrocket. After all, after the Russian president announced a ban on the supply of the resource to countries that joined the restriction of oil prices in the Russian Federation, "oil prices actually fell."
The situation is very interesting, and in any case it is not in favor of Russia. Putin wanted to recreate a powerful empire, but military aggression, threats and blackmail of the world community led to the fact that he is rapidly destroying his country economically.

I admit that I'm sometimes slow to learn but I'm starting to understand how to deal with whataboutists who in a topic about energy crisis in Europe where we are discussing the energy bills increasing between 50% to 900% with real cases, try changing the topic to a propaganda they read in their own media about a made up story 2000+ km away just because the regime is trying to convince them energy crisis is normal.

I guess you live an learn
And my apology to other readers of this topic for going off-topic.

Yep, as expected.

I (reluctantly) started replying to his post, but when I reached that part about no country in the world (let alone "severely underdeveloped Europe") can compare to Iran when it comes to "energy, infrastructure and development" I realized that there's no point and just deleted the unfinished post.

You probably don't remember or you were far more shielded by commie propaganda back in the 80s, all we would hear on the radio about the US was civil revolts in Los Angeles, Texas splitting and how they are running out of food, all this while we had empty stores and no heating. The same shit happening now with Russian and Iranian propaganda, throw a lot of envy and two cycles of brainwashing and you get one of these cultists.

As for the gas situation, no wonder, just as Venezuela ran out of fuel the same here, when you're desperately selling all your gas to support terrorists in Syria and Yemen, trying to build some sort of weapons to rival what the US has but you have a GDP on par with Moldova, of course, there is no money left for investment that matter! But prepare for a lot of foaming at the mouth, as obviously we have no clue and we lie, we have no right to comment on what happens in a different country, only the ones chosen by god have!  

If things go on like this by 2025-28 Germany will be exporting LNG to Russia!

LE:
Told ya! Here comes the propaganda! 

The difference between the wars you mentioned is at least that Russia seeks to seize Ukraine and annex its territory to its own country and at the same time destroy the Ukrainians as a nation. In the case of the invasion of Iraq, the United States had no such goals. Russians are now just killing Ukrainians because they consider themselves Ukrainians. This is the genocide of a whole large nation in the very center of Europe (in the Carpathians on the territory of Ukraine there is a sign indicating the geographical center of Europe). In addition, the Putin regime wants to appropriate the history of Ukraine with its Kievan Rus, centered in Kyiv, which was one of the most influential states of the 9th-11th centuries. At the same time, the lands of present-day Russia, including the village of Mokva (the previous name of present-day Moscow), territorially belonged to one of the princes of Kievan Rus, Yuri Dolgoruky. Putin understands that without Ukraine and its history as its own history, Russia is nothing. After all, they even stole their name from Ukraine. Until the time of Peter the Great, which dates back to the beginning of the 18th century, Russia was called Muscovy or the Moscow kingdom and did not have its own majestic history.

Except that you are mixing apples and oranges. You just shared electricity price increase for business in France while he shared nonsense about increase of gas price for households in Germany. But I guess guy from Pakistan knows situation in Germany better than those who visited it few weeks ago and have family there.

Situation could be better of course, but unfortunately there's midget in the east who never got over the fall of USSR so that's where we are at the moment.


Oh damn. I honestly thought that situation in Iran regarding gas must be peachy considering their natural resources and how obsessed he is with prices of gas in Europe and our problems in general. I wonder how many schools in Germany were closed this winter for weeks in order to save the gas and electricity.

Can't you just cut with the bullshit?
First and first, nobody trades in Europe based on cubic meters and dollars!
All TTF futures are traded in Mw/€! All dutch TTF futures happen here:

https://www.theice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5493476&span=2
And futures prices in 2022 were 64€/Mw now they are 60!

European gas prices slump to 16-month low
Do you understand what 16 months mean? It's more than a year as a hint!

As for LNG, don't worry, US LNG is actually getting cheaper:


As for our Iranian friend that is so concerned about gas in Europe, here is karma for you:
https://www.dw.com/en/iran-faces-gas-shortage-despite-vast-reserves/a-64395365


Natural Gas Shortage In Iran Shuts Schools, State Organizations


And he still cares more about what a bakery in Strasbourg says rather than what the people of Strasbourg really care:
Thousands march to EU parliament in Strasbourg in support of Iran protesters

Speaking of energy bills I saw a tweet from a French citizen who says his bill (apparently for a small pastry shop) has gone up almost 10 times. From 1,630€ to 16,427€ due to the severe energy crisis that Europe is facing.

The bill for November (16427€):

https://twitter.com/AlizadehSamuel/status/1602739828575342592

The bill for December (17780€):

https://www.dna.fr/economie/2023/01/16/patisserie-suzanne-la-facture-suivante-se-monte-a-17-780-euros

P.S. Now the 800% gas bill rise that @Smack That Ace pointed out earlier doesn't seem that big since this case is 990% rise.

Winter this time has remained surprisingly mild in Europe and as a result the natural gas consumption has gone down. The Dutch TTF prices are at lowest levels since the war started, with LNG trading at $704 per thousand cubic meters (still around 2x higher than the rates in 2022 January). Brent crude is still hovering at $80 to $85 per barrel, despite the reduced demand from China. BTW, a new record has been achieved in Russia’s Northern Sea Route, as commodities amounting to 34 million tons were shipped in 2022 (including 20.5 million tons of LNG and 7.2 million tons of oil).