Topic: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia? - page 21. (Read 14455 times)

When are we going to receive the news that Russia has announced to are now ending war with Ukraine.
We are all tired now - the world has suffered so much already

A new batch of improvements from Russia

- The Russians should not wait for the growth of pensions, they said in the State Duma.
“We have new people who are retiring. Plus, we must remember that we have new annexed territories. These are also expenditure obligations, ”said Elena Tsunaeva, deputy chairman of the labor committee.
- The Russian stock market on Wednesday fell a record since October last year on the news of new EU sanctions and fears due to the president's message to the Federal Assembly, after which the Duma and the Federation Council will meet for unscheduled meetings.
The Moscow Exchange Index, which tracks the capitalization of the four dozen largest Russian companies, fell by 2.54% at 18:09 Moscow time, to 2175.25 points, the lowest in almost three weeks. The RTS index collapsed 3.6%, or $5 billion in terms of capitalization, and reached its lowest level since the mobilization panic - 918 points.
Correction in Russian stocks "is associated with the exit of some players before the President's message to the Federal Assembly on February 21 and the anniversary of the SVO," said Dmitry Donetsksky, chief analyst at IFC Solid.
After the message, which was postponed for several months, the State Duma and the Federation Council may consider "urgent and extraordinary issues," said Yury Shvytkin, deputy chairman of the defense committee. He assured that there was no talk of a new wave of mobilization.
https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/02/15/rossiiskii-rinok-obvalilsya-rekordno-s-oktyabrya-na-strahah-pered-poslaniem-putina-a34234
- "The government's plans to produce and deliver to Russian airlines more than 1,000 domestic aircraft by 2030 were in jeopardy because of the war in Ukraine." To put it simply - "great Russia" and "Russia's economy independent of sanctions" - are not able, without Western components, to produce Russian civil aircraft ))
- The reduction of gas supplies to Europe to a minimum since the late 1980s hit Gazprom's revenue and Russian budget revenues.
In January, Gazprom earned $3.4 billion from gas exports - 46% less than in the same month a year earlier, Reuters calculated based on data on the collection of customs duties and physical volumes of pumping.
Last year, Gazprom sold 101 billion cubic meters of gas to non-CIS countries, half as much as in 2021. At the same time, exports to Europe and Turkey shrank to 85 billion cubic meters, which statistics have never recorded in the modern history of Russia.

...success after success The question is rhetorical - is it true that Europe has problems against the backdrop of this trash in Russia?


And about real totalitarianism, mixed with cowardly rashism: the Leninsky District Court of Barnaul found RusNews journalist Maria Ponomarenko guilty of spreading “fake news” about the army because of a telegram post on Telegram about an airstrike on the drama theater in Mariupol (paragraph “e” of part 2 Article 207.3 of the Criminal Code). She was assigned six years in prison, and was also banned from journalism for five years, the publication itself notes.
The journalist was imprisoned for 6 years, only because she wrote the TRUTH. Yes, the terrorist army of Russia deliberately attacked the building of the drama theater, where people were hiding from shelling. Hundreds of peaceful people - women, children, old people. Almost all of them died under the rubble. But this was not enough for Russia. They forbade dismantling the rubble, extracting corpses for burial. And after the capture of the city, they overtook construction equipment and the wreckage of knowledge there, cynically loaded it into dump trucks with the remains of people, and you drove everything to a landfill! This is not even Nazism, this is some kind of inhuman sadism!

I would not really like to publish photos from shops and supermarkets, in my opinion, this is contrary to the principles of anonymity and confidentiality. 

As for buckwheat, yes, it is very tasty and nutritious, it is very good to eat it with milk.  During all economic crises, Russians begin to massively buy buckwheat in large quantities.  This is due to the fact that, unlike other cereals, it has an almost unlimited shelf life.  In this cereal, bugs never start and it does not deteriorate. 

In general, Russia produces food in large quantities, so hunger is not yet perceived as a real threat.  However, in the event of strong socio-political upheavals, interruptions in food supplies are possible. 

Therefore, many people have already stocked up on food and water in advance.  I myself have boxes with stew and condensed milk in the hallway.

The general inadequacy of modern managers is so great that absolutely any scenario can be implemented.

I'll help him, this is what I have heard from the person who was saying Germans would freeze: Germany didn't freeze because it has the strongest economy in Europe, this helped them.
Now their prediction is that Germany survived this year but they are in danger for next year.
There are so many predictions from pro-russians but not so funny is that these people change their words when their predictions fail but still are highly confident that they are wise and their next predictions will come true. Again, it will fail and they'll find explanation like Germany has big economy and they survived.

Actually, pooya87 said it well. DW, Bild, Welt, probably every German media and news company was publishing how dangerous the situation would be but to be but it is not. It's always done on purpose and pooya87 correctly explained the reason behind it.

It's normal to look for and buy products with yellow price tags if the product meets expected quality. I know food is cheap in Russia, at least before the war it was pretty cheap, right? When I was there during my childhood, I used to eat Grechka (Buckwheat) It was pretty cheap and delicious with butter
Can you provide us with images from supermarkets? If it's possible for you to do something like this:
Food prices in Germany - Tell me what you want to know

Once again you are trying to primitively manipulate the data. It's like a classic nonsense of Russian propaganda "here, in Europe people die from frostbite, that's it, all of Europe is dying without Russian gas"

You surprisingly strangely forgot a couple of words in the "fact" you voiced. I'm not surprised though
So - Russia's income from the sale of Russian gas is indeed higher in 2022 than in 2021. But .... ONLY in the first half of the year Tell me - a completely different picture is obtained if you "do not steal" part of the fact?

The problem for you, and other supporters of Russian propaganda, is that this information is in the open. And people who repeat propaganda narratives, deliberately or accidentally "forgetting" part of the fact, look, at best, as "naive fools" who are very easy to manipulate, feeding them any fakes. Or it is an indicator that the bearer of such "facts" is just a chronic liar.... The choice of which of these two roles you play is up to you

I get a lifetime fuel price reduction, so it's not that big of a deal for me. You could also have the same discount for about an hours worth of very light work and a few bucks in material that most of you already have... paper, scissors and tape! https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/has-anyone-else-tried-this-nakamoto-diesel-fuel-saver-5403404

Yes, it's all true.  The standard of living in Russia has fallen sharply.  People try to buy goods at a discount in the store, such goods are marked with yellow price tags.  There are few young people in the cities.  There are very few well-dressed people with happy faces.  There is nothing special to rejoice about....

A lot of people in military uniform.  Perhaps these are mobilized who were given leave.  Their eyes are very sad and they are constantly in a hurry somewhere, as if they are afraid of not being in time ...

The atmosphere is very oppressive, and somehow surreal, it feels like I ended up in Russia in 1915.  And nearby are soldiers who returned from the German front, fighters from death battalions, as well as drunken Black Hundreds. 

How did we get into this situation?  I think this is largely a fear of the technological singularity.  Probably, it became very uncomfortable for old people to be close to scientific and technological progress....

There are two ways to increase the manageability of social processes - to improve the management system (making it more technological and progressive) or to simplify the system that you manage.  Then it will be easy to manage.  It seems that Russia has chosen the second option.  But simplifying a managed system is a very dangerous process.  Because when the mind turns off, primitive animal instincts turn on.

That "crisis" had similar features. True, Europe has not drawn conclusions. Now it seems that after the second time they ran into the same problem, they decided to think about it and change something
The essence of the problem is the monopolization of the market by one or a "related group" of suppliers. And their ambitions. So then the European economy was heavily tied to energy from the Arab countries. What caused the crisis, I will not even remember now, the point is that they "turned off the tap" and Europe has problems. The second mistake was the gas monopolization of the industry of the main European players (Germany, Italy, France) by Russian gas. I'm sure you've been watching what's going on in real time. The same "game" itself - they turned off the tap, tried to show who was in charge here ... and got screwed Europe quickly found an alternative. And this time they acted smarter - they diversified supply channels.

PS if you go back to Russia - all she has done since 2014 is shoot herself in the foot. More precisely, first in the leg, then in the arm, then in the ass, and now it looks like they put the barrel to their head

And some news from the "stable economy":
Rosstat is trying to convince Russians that their standard of living in 2022 fell by only 1%, while wages allegedly increased by 12.7%, inflation was below 12%, and unemployment was only 3.7%.
But in reality, prices have risen 1.5-2 times, and the standard of living has also collapsed! 17.2 million below the poverty line! 80% - save on food

Pipeline gas exports to China amounted for 15.6 billion cubic meters in 2022. Most of the exports from Russia are in the form of LNG, or pipeline exports to the west (Turkey, EU, Serbia.etc). The Russian fuel revenue for 2022 was higher than that in 2021, despite all the sanctions and the sabotage at Nord Stream. 2023 is unpredictable. But as things stand, Russia remains one of the top producers of oil and natural gas, and there is a lot of demand for their hydrocarbons in the developing world. An uptick in Chinese fuel consumption after the post-COVID period may benefit them this year.

Buddy, friendly advice: better start referencing and properly formatting the copypasta or you might end up getting banned. I briefly checked your post history and it seems like this is not the first time you are doing that so you can't say that you did it by mistake.

The level of sales of Gazprom for the first month of the year and the forecasts of experts indicate that the revenue of the Russian monopolist from exports in 2023 may collapse immediately by 2 times, writes Reuters. This will increase pressure on Russia's budget, which already ran a $25 billion deficit in January.

In January, Gazprom's revenue from selling gas abroad amounted to only $3.4 billion compared to $6.3 billion in the same period last year, Reuters reported.
The reason is the drop in exports. Last year, it has already collapsed by almost half, reaching the post-Soviet minimum. This year the downward trend has continued.

According to Ronald Smith, senior oil and gas analyst at BCS Global Markets, the price of gas exported to China in 2022 averaged $270 per 1,000 cubic meters. This is much lower than prices in Europe. According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, the export price of gas in 2023 should be $700 per 1,000 cubic meters.

Russia ended January 2023 with the largest budget deficit since the default year 1998. In January, it amounted to 1.76 trillion rubles ($25 billion). Russia's oil and gas export revenues collapsed by about $8 billion in January. Because of the unleashed war in Ukraine, Russia is steadily sinking.

You are not wrong. There are many similarities. That economical crisis also didn't begin with the energy crisis/embargo but it was part of it (from the middle).

1. That crisis started in early 70's. Maybe we could put the start in 71 when the monetary system starts falling apart (namely Bretton Woods system). Similar to this time where it started in 2019 when the monetary system starts falling apart followed by a pandemic.

2. By the end of 73 the economic crisis has grown so big that it leads to the complete stock market collapse which they refer to as "biggest market meltdown since the Great Depression" specially in UK.
This is similar to what happened a couple of years ago and the stock market hasn't yet recovered completely and it is still seeing big dumps.

3. Nixon in US has been fucking US economy ever since 1969 that is also being poured into Europe affecting their economy too. US dollar is also dumping at this point specially starting in 71 continued to 74 when the world finds out they've been lied to and dollar is not backed by gold at all. Oil is priced in dollar making the economic crisis even worse.
Similar to the past ~5 years that US economy has been struggling with increasing inflation, recession, unemployment, trade deficits, budget deficit, increased national debt, etc. that is also being exported to Europe.

4. There is a war in the oil rich West Asia and Roughly in 74 (basically the middle of an already ongoing crisis in Europe, US and elsewhere), Arab countries placed the embargo on oil only on a handful of countries (US, Canada, Japan, UK and Netherlands) for supporting a terrorist organization commonly known as Israel.
Similar to 2022 where Russia reduced its exports to some European countries that were already struggling with economic crisis.

Wasn't Germany making a lot of money by increasing their car sales? In fact them and Japan effectively killed US car industry which was huge and took over that market in those days exactly because of the shit that was going on!

The crisis eventually passed but I wouldn't use the word "dignity" explaining it.
For example did you know they rationed energy and imposed prison sentences for anybody who used more than their ration? Kind of like what Switzerland has been planning with their temperature laws (up to 3 years in prison with a 19 degree temp cap). Luckily this year the temps didn't drop that low and they had shut down enough industries that the law wasn't enforced (AFAICT).

Also as I mentioned above a ton of industries (like the American automobile industry) turned to dust. Kind of like today with de-industrialization of Europe.

History truly repeats itself...

I read that in the 70s of the last century there was a similar situation - the Arab countries imposed an embargo on the supply of energy carriers to Europe. 

And this led to an economic crisis in Europe, in particular in Germany.  At that time, restrictions were placed on the use of private cars by Europeans. 

From this we can conclude that the Kremlin's view of the Europeans as pampered crybabies who run to give up at the first serious difficulty is absolutely wrong.  This is a typical example of cognitive bias.  The Germans and other Europeans accepted this challenge with dignity and reduced their gas consumption at home. 

At the same time, this situation is catastrophic for the future of Russia, since it has lost the most important irreplaceable resource - the reputation of a reasonable and respectable counterparty.

What you wrote about is "the visiting card of the Kremlin propaganda." In their habits, take some (maybe not even fictional, deliberately false information), and present it as a kind of "horror horror." The calculation is extremely simple. Reckoning on a not very smart audience, on the favorite audience of the Russian media. Why ? Because they believe in everything, they do not verify the information. "If the TV / newspaper / state portal" said so, then it is so, even if it sounds like blatant idiocy. So in this case - they took statistics in which there is nothing anomalous, and issued it as "mass death in Europe, due to the refusal of Russian gas." All! Their audience is foaming at the mouth, running around and telling everyone that Europe will soon be gone, look - they are dying like flies, and soon there will be no one left in the EU at all, and all because they refused Russian gas! Therefore, I always recommend checking information, numbers - checking, comparing with historical indicators, etc.

German found another technology - while the other countries look for the alternatives too.
EU also imposed a cap on Russian oil and gas and they are all trying to put pressure on them and weaken them but this is not possible this easy.

Maybe you didn't, but some other members said that without Russian gas and oil we gonna drive around in donkey carts and use firewood while in reality it was business as usual even in the poorest EU countries like mine.


Regarding the excess mortality due cold homes, according to the article you linked, 50% more people died in December 2020 than it was during December 2022 while 10 year average for England is 7409 so it was business as usual there.

Self-hypnosis is cool, but useless
Please provide a list of enterprises for example in Germany that have ceased operations due to the unavailability or high cost of gas from alternative sources? And then let's see how it really is, and not fantasy according to propaganda manuals

PS I am absolutely sure that if you answer something, it will be an ordinary set of fakes from Russian propaganda



even funnier to watch people who understand reality. they begin to write "turning on the fool mode", as if they do not understand what is happening in reality
The EU does not say that they will freeze. There is a part of the media, corrupt, feeding at the expense of the Kremlin's handouts. They started stuffing even at the beginning of the imposition of sanctions by the EU. And they squealed from all outlets and from all yellow pages "The EU will freeze without Russian gas." But they lost. The pitiful loser of the EU market, the Kremlin, is left only to spoil small things through their pocket journalists, and try to at least somehow destabilize or sow tension in the EU. But that won't work either
The EU has quietly replaced more than 90% of all gas supplies from the country of terror. Yes, small restrictive measures have been temporarily introduced, but only for reinsurance. And even nature helps the EU to resist economic terrorists and war criminals

Funny thing is that only Europeans have been saying "Europe would freeze over this winter" because they've been hearing it in their own media over and over again. It's actually a pretty simple and interesting propaganda method. The propaganda machine convinces people of a horrible scenario but from the mouth of a third party (so that they are not liable). Then in the future when something terrible (but less bad as that scenario like €11k gas bill or increased excess mortality due to cold homes) happens people react less negatively or simply don't even believe it.

It is interesting because it is basic human behavior that we see in every society and even in markets. Like when price of something (goods, utility bills, etc.) goes up a lot and then comes back down a little (eg. $100 up to $1000 then down to $800) people are happy!

I did not state or expect that Europe would freeze over this winter. It was immediately obvious that the authorities would not allow this and the energy-intensive industry would become a victim of the energy shortage, which actually happened.

You are somewhat mistaken. No one says that economic isolation will end the war. Russia has internal resources. From metal to a semi-slave population, ready to make tanks and guns out of it.

But, the weakening of the economy, sanctions and the termination of access to TECHNOLLGIES will drive the Russian economy into the Middle Ages. It may seem like a joke, but it's a reality - Russia is a technologically backward country. All "achievements" are just a legacy of developments in the USSR by all republics.

so, to fight with weapons from the Stone Age, even in large numbers, is the way to guaranteed defeat, against the high-tech weapons of developed countries.

I will give one simple example: the "pride of Russian tank building" is the T90 Proryv main attack tank, which propaganda calls the "T-90M Proryv, a monster among tanks, the best tank in Russia." The cost of 1 tank is about 5 million dollars. Note that the price is not indicated in rubles. In rubles, it is impossible to form a "fixed price", because a large number of components are Western and are bought for currency (by the way, where can I get it during isolation? )
So. Russia spends almost half a year on the production of a tank, 5 million dollars, plus the associated costs of training and transfer to combat units - that's another 1 million dollars. He comes to Ukraine, travels 100 km, and Javelin flies to him. One shot of which costs about 30,000 dollars. And almost 100% defeat of the "monster among tanks". These are funny, they even tried to weld the "grill grate" on top. It began after the Russian tankers, seeing that their tanks were being opened like tin cans, were afraid to continue fighting. "great Russian engineers" have proposed a "solution" that supposedly will protect them from the "primitive javelin". Now in the east of Ukraine, in the fields, there are hundreds of torn-up tanks with a "grill on the roof." This is what I am all about - such incomparable costs will lead to the fact that soon the Russian army will run with spears, and at best in chariots This is of course an image but the essence, I hope you understand. And their destruction will become, in fact, shooting at a shooting range, where, in the warmth and comfort of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it will be just for a cup of coffee to shoot crowds of sheep that the Kremlin sent to slaughter. This is almost what is happening now - watch the video from under Ugledar, Bakhmut ...