Topic: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia? - page 29. (Read 14504 times)

I don't agree with any of this. The reason why the Chinese government manipulates the exchange rates of the Yuan and devalues it frequently is to help the exporters in that country. China is the largest exporter of textiles, electronics and other appliances. Having a weaker Yuan benefits this sector. If you want to compare the change in living standards, then you will be surprised. During the last 2 decades or so, living standards in the US has remained more or less same, while that in China has seen a large improvement (extreme poverty has been completely eliminated from China as per reports from independent agencies). Check these charts:

Some information about the new "achievements" of the country of the terrorist
- The Russian oil price ceiling is costing the Kremlin minus $172 million a day of planned revenue. Lost profits will rise to $280 million a day when the restriction is extended to petroleum products from Feb. 5.
- The price of oil fell to the level of $40 per barrel. On January 15, the "great strategist" introduced a restriction - not to sell oil below $140, gas - below $2,000 per 1,000 cubic meters.
- China accepted the position of the United States, saying that the partnership with Russia turned out to be erroneous, and further interactions with the criminal regime would be minimized
- India joins sanctions against Russia

Every day is a new "victory" of Russia

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So whose problem is this? Who's in real trouble? Indeed, quite recently, many pro-Kremlin propagandists and their supporters wrote that the US leadership is ending, the US will soon collapse, BRICS and similar unions will take the place of the leader, we are switching to settlements in local currencies ... Well, and other nonsense
Bottom line: the US is rebuilding its economy, and some countries are doing idiotic things like abandoning the dollar and creating alliances with rogue countries in an attempt to "destroy the dollar and the US" once again. At the same time, it is their economy that is being destroyed and it is their currencies that are collapsing... It looks very funny and stupid

The US has a very sensible economic policy.  The US has very good domestic demand.  The citizens of the United States are constantly improving their standard of living, they are consuming more and more goods, works and services.  

China is the opposite.... The standard of living of the Chinese population is not growing at the same rate as the standard of living of US citizens.  China has weak domestic demand.  

Therefore, China is forced to keep most of its foreign exchange earnings as part of the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of China.  

Based on this, a cheap yuan is beneficial for China, and an expensive dollar for the United States.  

This ensures the overall stability of the modern financial system.

^^^ I never claimed that the United States is not the strongest economy in the world. My problem is that the US always misuses the fact that USD is the reserve and trade currency of the world. They take trillions of USD in loans, paying interest rates of near zero. Other countries don't have this luxury and they are paying inflated rates to make up for their budget deficit. What is happening now is that the rest of the world is strengthening the USD by trading in this currency and by purchasing the US treasury bonds, while the Americans are diluting it by printing out more and more banknotes.

News from the circus
As you know, today Russian oil began to be traded "here and now" at a price of about $40 per barrel.
No, I will not remind you that the EU has refused oil and gas from a supplier who is a global terrorist.
This is how the world market reacted. At the same time, please pay attention - other brands of oil - did not grow. What does it say? Not only that the world has understood that it is impossible to finance terrorists, but also that demand, global demand for oil, is not growing! There are many reasons:
- China can no longer buy back those volumes of oil from Russia that it bought up to today. Why ? No storage, no need, economy stagnating, oil losing demand
- India - bought a huge amount of Russian oil on the cheap. But what was cheap yesterday is already EXPENSIVE today, and India will wait for a deeper drawdown in order to "average" the cost of stocks
- The rest of the world - well, you guessed it, they live in reality and not in the total fakes of Russia - there is a lot of oil! Demand is satisfied, the prospects have become stable, nothing on this market depends on Russia.

But this is real and serious. Do you want to roar with all your might? Putin signed the order... Sit down, otherwise you will fall with laughter To "spoil the whole world", this "great strategist" ordered... drum roll !!!!!!
- to ban the sale of oil to the foreign market at less than $140 per barrel, this time  
- prohibit the sale of gas to the external market at a price below $2,000 per 1,000 cubic meters!

Do you understand the depth of idiocy? Nobody buys at 45? AND WE WILL NOT SELL YOU CHEAPER 140 oil!!  

The extremely idiotic order was accepted for execution from 01/15/2023! Take popcorn - you've definitely never seen such a show of idiots!  



 

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Those. you yourself have already understood that propaganda is a fairy tale, but there is reality. The reality where the US economy has been and remains the strongest, the currencies of Russia, China and India are unstable, and this speaks of such a stable economy. More precisely, they may be "large", but they are highly dependent on the same dollar, Western technologies and the US / EU market. These countries will not be able to sell to themselves, because they need currency, not candy wrappers!
especially:
-China - economic stagnation, a new round of the pandemic, a global economic bubble that is ready to burst. Well, the most important thing against this background is that the United States has imposed a ban on the supply of technologies and high-tech chips to China. Without this, China will again return to the status of a manufacturer of cheap electronic consumer goods for third world countries.
- Russia - in general, the question is - how many years it will still be displayed on the map. Internal processes, or rather centrifugal ones, have already begun ... And the influence from the outside will accelerate them ... This player can generally be "written off"
- India - well, lucky here! The United States allowed India to assemble iPhones by transporting all production from China ... But globally, nothing has changed in the Indian economy.
- Brazil - an unstable economy, some obvious events, destabilization - well, a chic union! Objectively, India looks like an island of stability among other participants. And these participants, or rather ballast, India DOES NOT NEED! And more importantly, for India, all of the above countries can become raw materials appendages (following Russia), and a market for cheap, low-quality goods that definitely will not go to the US / EU market and other developed countries!

It is not expensive everywhere, only in places where they have to import oil from abroad to process/refine it to get fuel. Otherwise for countries that already have the resources an the technology to make fuel it won't be expensive.
So in such an extreme scenario, the airlines in countries with expensive fuel will shut down not the air travel.

I agree. The World Orders don't just change easily, a World War created the dual polar world about 80 years ago and a Cold War with the threat of nuclear annihilation created this last World Order where Dollar dominated the world.

The US is still being used by more countries, of course, it's widely accepted. Only Russia and China are capable of standing up and not using the US because their economy can last even with all the economic sanctions but more countries are also adopting Crypto and Yuan even in South America.

The BRICS nations will have the gold standard soon. They know this which is why gold is skyrocketing as central banks are buying gold.

I am not sure whether the US Dollar will lose it's dominant position in international trade anytime soon. Recently some of the countries such as Russia, China and India have started using their own national currencies instead of the United States Dollar, for bilateral trade. But here is the catch - all of these currencies (RUR, CNY and INR) have gone down against the USD in the last 12 months. So naturally the traders are not going to benefit in case they use these weaker options. The governments also can't force the traders.

Most importantly, humanity has already acquired the experience of living in a world divided into isolated segments. 

I mean the situation with the Covid-19 pandemic.  When I talk about isolated economic zones, I mean not only the currency of international settlements. 

Perhaps a complete disregard for entire continents.  For example, planes will not fly from one continent to another, because there will be no economic sense in such flights, and gasoline is expensive. 

Previously, in all countries you could see crowds of Chinese tourists.  What is currently happening?  Currently, they do not leave the territory of their country.  The Chinese also do not use foreign social networks.  So gradually they may even forget that there is anything other than China.

In addition to economic isolation, complete cultural isolation of various peoples is also possible.

I don't think it is or will be isolated zones. It's just going to be zones that don't follow the old world order that will be willing to have economical relations with other zones.
For example eventually it could be that Eastern bloc trades internally using an entirely different currency (that is not dollar) and Western bloc does the same but using dollar. Whenever the two blocs want to trade, they come to an agreement on the medium of exchange (could be gold again).
This is what organizations like SCO have been preparing for over the past years.

Modern European countries do not have their own colonies, where it would be possible to relocate both metallurgical and other factories.  The logic of modern relations between different countries lies in the rejection of the achievements of the era of globalism. 

For the first time, supply chains between different countries were seriously disrupted during the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic.  However, even after the pandemic has subsided, logistical problems persist. 

And here there is a danger of a large-scale naval war, when submarines will torpedo transport ships.  This is of course a hypothetical danger, but the probability of such events is not zero.  The global world is splitting into separate isolated economic zones. 

In my opinion, in an era of uncertainty, it is advisable to strive to provide your country with everything you need, and, consequently, with heavy metallurgy products. 

The situation in the world right now is too turbulent.

That is correct - I have seen in news like Afghanistan, Sirilanka, Pakistan are going through the toughest time on the other hand India took great care of their economy. People in India switched to the solar energy. The Indian kept good terms with USA and they also got oil from Russia. They know how to take care of their people.

That's true but the degree and the type of what each country or region faces is very different depending on their "side" and what they have to import. What US faces is different from what Asia faces and what EU faces and even it is different for different EU members (eg. UK is different from Germany and different from Greece, and so on).

For example:
Turkey is facing 90%+ inflation rate because they relied heavily on energy imports and accompanied with a very weak reliant economy led to worse inflation.
What US faces is partly high energy prices partly stupid money printing policy and they reduce it by exporting it which is something other countries can not do.
What EU faces is generally deindustrialization and capital fleeing the region because of high inflation and energy prices which they make worse by printing money.
What India is facing is industrialization and capital entering their country with the inflation being due to high energy prices while Indian economy expands.
...
Although things are a lot more complicated than this but I tried simplifying it to make the point. You see it is not only because of wars, a conflict is a catalyst that is activating 3 years of outrageous amount of money printing ever since Pandemic began.

Be it Europe and Asia  - USA or NATO all the countries are facing the worse inflation
There are three basic reason - Afghan _ USA war which has done so much damage to the south asian region - Russian - ukraine war. . Which has damaged the whole world. And yet there are all the biggest peacemakers of the world.

but there is a down fall of every country - and now European countries has also experienced this.
Those in my country - people want to go abroad. And those who are abroad are coming back to their homeland. There is chaos everywhere and people are running and in trouble all the time.

I never said that Europe is not a good place for all types of industries. What I meant from my previous post is that Europe needs to shut down some of its energy intensive industries, and concentrate more on sectors that need less energy - such as IT, medicine, electronics and pharmaceuticals. Industrial sectors such as heavy engineering, mining, automobiles and metals have no place in Europe. Energy intensive industries need a combination of cheap labor and affordable energy. Europe doesn't have either of these two.

The transitional period after the refusal of European countries from Russian energy carriers is difficult, no one hides this, but Europe is getting out of this situation with dignity. More gas is pumped into EU storage this winter than it consumes. So, in Germany, the filling of gas storage facilities is almost 90%, in the EU as a whole - 83%. A year ago it was even 30% less. And this was one of the key factors behind Putin's decision to go to war in Ukraine. He believed that the European Union without Russia in any way. But it turned out that dependence on Russia blocks the path to the future and kills Europe like an old drug addict, and also allows the Russian mafia to earn money.

The price of gas in the EU has also fallen below pre-war levels. A warm winter has already partially solved the problem of gas for the next winter, because in the middle of winter they began to pump more gas into storage facilities than they consume - and this is in the middle of winter!

This year can and should be the end of Russia as an energy empire. Europe as a sphere of energy influence of the Russian Federation will no longer exist. The energy year is off to a good start.

European natural gas prices have eased as persistently warmer-than-usual winter weather dampens demand and reduces strain on the region's energy systems. Gas prices in Europe have accelerated the pace of decline to more than 7%, dropping to $785 per thousand cubic meters

The return of stronger winds in parts of Europe is also helping to reduce the need for gas for electricity generation. Nearly record-breaking wind power is expected to be produced in Germany. It looks like Putin's plans have failed completely.

The biggest hit will be on regular people. Something like what happened to US, the 1% controls all the money in the world and middle class is eliminated while everyone falls to lower class. That 1% will remain "European" while their business (all their factories and production) takes place abroad like China and India, that way EU economy remains big while people get poorer.
Like iPhone being basically made in China while it is considered "American" and Apple counts as US GDP while regular Americans are out of jobs!

Let me bring you back to reality from the haze and frenzy of Russian propaganda, because. I do not think that this is your personal, meaningful opinion
Tell me - maybe China, India or, for example, Iran - produces gas turbines, for example, for the same northern stream? Or maybe China produces systems for drilling gas and oil wells? Do you really think that because of the high rates in the EU, they will turn into third world countries, such as Asia's raw material appendage - Russia? )))
If the EU stops supplying the same China or India with equipment and other countries products such as industrial robots, equipment for the chemical or medical industry and other HIGH-TECH equipment and technologies, these countries will return to agriculture and the agrarian economy again!

In this regard, the question arises about the future of the European economy...

What will the European countries do?  Produce exclusively agricultural products? 

However, in European countries there are no black earth fertile lands. 

Actively develop tourism?  Yes, there are a lot of temples, palaces and other monuments of cultural heritage in Europe.  However, the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic has shown how easily stable tourist flows disappear. 

The deindustrialization of Europe, in my opinion, is a very big blow to the European economy.  This raises the question of the future of all European culture. 

It is possible that humanity in general is threatened with a civilizational rollback, since European culture is the foundation of all modern human civilization.