Topic: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia? - page 22. (Read 14200 times)

A bit of history...

Life in Russia was very good from 2000 to 2014 (with a brief deterioration in 2008-2009).  It was perhaps the most stable and successful period in the entire history of Russia (including the Russian Empire and the USSR).  

This was especially noticeable in contrast to the previous era - the predatory capitalism of the 90s of the last century (a time that was remembered for the heyday of banditry, hunger, poverty, hopelessness and the war in Chechnya).  

However, since 2000, the life of Russians has changed. The war in Chechnya ended, gangster groups disappeared from city streets. Large-scale housing construction began. People began to go on foreign tourist trips, travel a lot and go to restaurants. New heroes appeared on television  - socialite Ksyusha Sobchak and glamorous bastard Pasha "Snowball" Will.  

All this splendor was the result of rising prices for oil and other energy resources.  

For an era of incredible prosperity, Russia should have been grateful to the United States. It was the United States that destroyed Iraq (the leading exporter of crude oil). The United States also imposed sanctions and isolated another major exporter of hydrocarbons - Iran.

It looks like many in this thread are delusional. Shrinking or even completely stopping oil and gas exports from Russia doesn't mean the war will stop. Moreover, even stopping ALL trade with Russia won't change anything. The war will go on. Sorry but this is the sad truth. Putin doesn't use EUR or USD to pay the workers at military factories. Western countries are only hurting themselves with the sanctions. Think about this before popping champaigne.

This is a big problem that would need a lot of finance to fix if Russia would eventually come back to be one of the large gas supply to Europe. The U.S LNG would wan to make it a little difficult for Europe to go back to Russia gas that is why the USA is donating a lot of weapon and ammunitions to Ukraine so that the world will not end like that.
America want to control gas supply so that they can be making laws that will coordinate the flow of gas in Europe. We are not even sure whether it is true that the Russians are responsible for blowing for the gas pipelines. This can be a war advantage and that could be the reason why all this happened.

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told the Russians that from March, oil production in the country will be reduced by 500,000 barrels per day. This is a direct and very painful result of the Kremlin's military adventure. The official of the Russian Federation explained the reduction in production by the reluctance to sell it to countries that have joined the "price ceiling". In fact, the reduction in production is a forced measure, caused by the complete loss of the European oil market. In the EU, there is an embargo not only on Russian crude oil, but also on petroleum products.

The reduction in production is still insignificant. Back in January, the Russian Federation pumped 10.9 million barrels per day. In March, this figure will already be 10.4 million barrels - this is the minimum since the start of a full-scale war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine. But there is reason to believe that this is only the beginning, and Moscow will have to continue to squeeze production. According to experts, by the end of this year 2023, the losses of the Russian oil industry may increase by 1.4 million barrels. And this is the level of the beginning of the zero years. There is degradation.

The industry that "feeds" the entire Russian economy becomes a victim of the Kremlin's aggressive policy. Most of the income to the federal budget of the Russian Federation comes from the sale of "black gold".

It is important to note that the restoration of the Russian oil industry after such tests is almost impossible, experts say. In the course of production cuts, the Russian Federation will have to close the oldest fields, the resumption of which will no longer make sense. Against the background of the fact that Russia is reducing oil production, other countries, such as Iran, are increasing its production in order to saturate the market and, thus, Russia is gradually being squeezed out of this market. I hope forever.

India has no doubt great ties with Russia. India is taking advantage of current discount which Russia is offering. They imported at an average of 1.2 million barrel per day in December 2022 which is 29% more them what they bought in November 2022. Moreover there oil import from Russia has gone up by 33% then year before, according to Bloomberg. Atleast India is importing more oil from Russia due to current crisis in which Russia is selling oil on discount.
Meanwhile Iran is preparing to drill for its second highest gas field in Kish. More energy coming to Iran in the form of natural gas.

You are forgetting a couple of facts.
First of all is that China has been increasing its imports of energy (among other resources) for a long time as they are expanding their economy. So this is not something that started in 2022.
Secondly both of these countries have friendly relationship with Russia. There is not enough benefit in blowing up this pipeline for any of them considering that would ruin that relationship. That's crazy to even consider their involvement.

That is while US doesn't have any relationships with Russia and there is no risk or negative consequences for US regime to blow this pipeline up. There are only benefits. As I said, it's that simple.

In my opinion, in the era of post-truth, facts, investigations, causal relationships no longer mean anything.  Propagandists have learned to directly manipulate the collective unconscious.  To see a more or less adequate picture of the world, one must read fiction. 

The Nord Stream gas pipeline is a very important infrastructure project in modern Russia.  Of course, you can go crazy and chew glass to scare others, but this does not negate the real values.  One of these values ​​is a new gas pipeline through which it is possible to trade with Europe, in particular with Germany.  It is absolutely pointless to blow it up, even if it is not used now, there is no certainty that it will not be needed in a few years.  This is also understood by the Americans, who are direct competitors of Russia in the natural gas market. 

And if someone has gone crazy, runs naked down the street and chews glass for the amusement of the public, then this is not a reason to change long-term plans to weaken a competitor. 

On the contrary, this is a good moment to take advantage of the situation and blow up the gas pipelines.

One can argue here...
For example, if we assume that it was the work of the USA / Britain / ... - everyone is well aware that today it is not difficult to determine and even identify an explosive and identify its origin from it. And why do these countries need such a turn of events? Not needed. And there is no direct BENEFIT from this. If I'm wrong, I'd love to hear your opinion!

The main beneficiary in this case was and remains precisely Russia. And I'll explain why:
Russia was well aware that after its terrorist antics (both military and economic), provided that the West became very strongly on the side of Ukraine, gas and oil would be guaranteed to fall under sanctions. But if this process is made protracted in time, "pain points" like Germany, which is highly dependent on gas from Russia, will be able to smoothly switch to alternatives, abandon Russian gas ... There is only one way out - to drastically reduce supplies right here and now, so that in anticipation of winters deal a strong blow to both the economy and politics. And what is important - to get the support of any pro-Kremlin bedding or help them climb the political Olympus.
BUT ! Russia has been engaged in economic terrorism for a long time, if memory serves - "demonstration performances" with stopping the pumping of gas were like in 2017 already. And in 2022, after another shutdown, the West decided not to tolerate it anymore, and began to prepare court cases regarding breach of contracts. If you are not aware, the fines there amount to huge billions of euros. And it turns out that we continue to pursue such a policy:
- there will be courts, and the EU will win them, and Russia will have huge obligations. Which will most likely turn into "gas in payment for a fine. That is, the gas industry will work for many years just like that, paying fines. And Russia, as a terrorist country, needs money for war.
- there will be a smooth rejection of Russian gas, which will not allow "pressure on the EU"

Exit ? Stop gas supply due to FORCE_MAJOR circumstances, get away from the courts, force the EU to softer support for Ukraine, avoid punishment, sell gas to those for whom "money does not smell" (China / India) and who will pay, to support the war

^^^ In December 2022, Indian refineries imported 1.20 million barrels per day of Russian crude. In January it went up to 1.27 million barrels. A part of it is refined and exported to the US/EU. Indian refined product exports for January 2023 stood at 93,000 barrels per day to the US and ~300,000 barrels per day to the EU. Now coming to the economics, you can check the difference between Brent and Urals here:

https://www.neste.com/investors/market-data/urals-brent-price-difference

At this point, the discount stands at ~$32 per barrel. Brent is trading at $80 per barrel and Urals at $48.

That said, India is not benefitting from Russian LNG imports. Most of it goes to China. However, this month some of the Indian gas companies have entered into discussion with Gazprom and Novatek, to explore the possibility of LNG imports to India.

But there are countries who have taken decisions for there benefits in this crisis like India and China. Both countries are buying cheap Russian oil. Russian oil was 20$ cheaper then what is sold in international market in Sep 2022 and 33$ cheaper in November 2022. You can easily imagine how much benefit both China and India are getting from this deal.


Image and new source: BBC

It didn't require an investigative journalist or any kind of secret information, etc. to know who pulled this attack off. All one has to do is to find out who benefited from this explosion and that is United States.

At the end of the day Russia hopes to normalize its relationships with its "customers" and resume selling them energy to increase the revenue. Blowing up the pipeline would negate that. Not to mention that they could have shut off the valve like they did before on other pipelines!

But think which country has replaced Russia as a big gas supplier to Europe? And who would be screwed if Russia resumed supply gas to Europe like before helping them not-need extremely expensive US LNG anymore?
It is obviously US! It's that simple.

I am sure that it was not Russian divers who blew up the underwater gas pipeline in the area of ​​Sweden and Denmark. 

Why would Russia blow up its own gas pipelines?  What is the point in such actions? 

This was done by British or American military divers. 

I have already written about the need to always be adequate in everything.  Then there will be no such situations when someone destroys an infrastructure object, and blames you for it. 

Adequacy is the greatest value in the modern world.  And not military force (as many people think).

I remember many were quite sure Russia blew up the pipes.  Eye-opening for them: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/us-bombed-nord-stream-gas-pipelines-claims-investigative-journalist-seymour-hersh-s730dnnfz

Just to remind you Sy Hersh is one of America's finest investigative journalists, Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter not just some yellow press.

I still remember what happened two decades back. Qatar, Australia and Malaysia were busy developing the LNG facilities in their countries, while Gazprom was busy sponsoring European football clubs and building expensive buildings as headquarters in St.Petersburg. Shale gas/oil technology was completely ignored for more than a decade as the Russians thought that their deal with Germany would last forever. And they decided to sideline gas exports to China, because the Chinese were not ready to pay the same price that the Europeans were paying.

On top of that whatever revenue they received when the gas/oil prices were high was squandered on useless projects (Sochi Olympics for example), or stolen by the oligarchs. The oligarchs didn't got rich either. Most of them moved their money to Cyprus and London, where these assets were seized by the respective governments (2012 in Cyprus, 2022 in London). Initially Putin acted against the oligarchs such as Mikhail Khodorkovsky, but then he built an empire of oligarchs who are loyal to him (including Alisher Usmanov, Iskander Makhmudov, Vagit Alekperov and Suleyman Kerimov.

What simply blocks the project is that Pakistan is not ready to lose its ally, the United States, which supports it militarily and strategically in its war against India over Kashmir.  All successive governments of Pakistan have always been in the service of US interests in the region.  And Pakistan cannot confront the Taliban on its soil without the help of the United States.

Last time there was progress on this gas pipeline was in Mar 2013 when the then President of Pakistan along with Irani President inaugurated the construction of gas pipeline. Pakistan People Party was ruling party at the moment and they did this ceremony on very last moment of there tenure. Soon after that there is General elections in Pakistan and new party PMLN came into power and project once again was sidelined.
This pipeline can suppy 750 million cubic feet of gas to Pakistan on daily basis enough to resolve Pakistan energy crisis.

In my opinion, the reason for all these managerial mistakes is the rejection of the democratic development of the country. 

Authoritarianism leads to the fact that very important and responsible positions (for example, the head of the state corporation Gazprom) are appointed not by the most intelligent and competent specialists, but by people who are loyal and personally devoted to the country's supreme leadership. 

That is why the revolution in the field of shale gas production and in the field of new technologies for gas liquefaction was virtually ignored in Russia. 

When the Russian leadership realized the scale of the problems that had begun, it was already too late.

^^^ War-time economy doesn't work like those during normal times. Brent crude has fallen to $80-85 per barrel and Urals is trading at $40 to $50 per barrel. Countries such as India and China are taking advantage of this by importing Russian crude. Given the cost of production is around $10-20 per barrel, this means that the Russian government hardly gets any revenue from the exports after the oil corporations take their cut. But they should blame themselves. They delayed LNG projects by at least a decade, and then provided Gazprom with the monopoly of international gas exports. All these stupid moves are coming back to bite them.

Another selection of "successes of a stable economy, great Russia"

1. Oil and gas revenues in January 2023 collapsed by almost 2 times compared to January 2022: from 795 to 426 billion rubles! Non-oil and gas companies fell by 28.1%: from 1.29 trillion to 931 billion! Spending soared by 58% - up to 3.1 trillion! The budget deficit for January exceeded 1.76 trillion rubles! This is 60% of the plan for the year

2.Gazprom stopped publishing data on gas production and export. This data is "classified". The same begins with oil statistics. I think that this will be presented to the population of Russia as "a humane step in relation to other players in the gas and oil market, so that they are not torn apart with envy", with a hint that sales have grown very much

3. The “hole” in the Russian budget has set an anti-record since the 1998 default. With revenues of 1.356 trillion rubles, the government spent 3.117 trillion. Every second ruble spent was left without tax revenue.

4. Russian Railways reported on the collapse of metal exports
Transportation of metals by rail for export fell by 23% in January.

5. Over the past 10 years, the average pension in Russia has grown from $246 to $224. No, no, this is not a mistake, that's right - it was about 246, and now it's 224, but officially - pensions have grown

6. Since mid-2022, the number of serious accidents in Russian aviation has been growing rapidly. So, throughout the first week of January, every day there were incidents with the chassis. The nature of numerous breakdowns is different, but the reason is the same, experts say - Russia's complete unpreparedness for sanctions and the lack of quality control of parts that are now bought from African partners, India and other "friendly countries". Parts are not certified.

PS. From the stands in Russia they have already begun to say:
War is a friend.
War is love.
War is the future

This is not a joke, this is REALITY, you can find the video.
Orwell is "rolling over in his grave" as his fantasy becomes reality...


Tell me - the loss of the gas market, sanctions - who created more problems?

It's not about that. Their politicians are faced with all bad options, some are worse than others so they try to choose the option with the least negative consequences. Unfortunately that option is to not-complete this pipeline (which leads to energy shortage, high prices, inflation and economical hardship).