Topic: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia? - page 30. (Read 14450 times)

First of all, Europe is not a suitable place to have all these heavy industries. The minimum wage is quite high, tax rates are over the roof and they need to import most of the raw materials (the same can be said about Japan and South Korea as well). They managed to be competitive till now, because all these factors got neutralized by extremely cheap natural gas supplies from Russia. But now they got this exceptional idea of cutting the very branch in which they are sitting on and it signals the end of heavy industries in European Union. EU's loss will be a gain for China and India.

It is not as full as they claim it is, specially not when I made that post a couple of months ago because there simply wasn't any way they could have filled them at that time. But you are right that now they have shut down so many industries and reduced energy consumption that they have a higher chance of not facing catastrophe in winter.
I agree with second part too. EU is hurting a lot more than Russia and another reason in addition to what you said is because US is also hurting EU, for example by selling LNG at an extremely higher price and not even fulfilling their promise and always sending less than they promised. On top of that US is exporting its inflation mainly to Europe that is causing a lot more problems.

Lets not forget recession and another major factor affecting the oil price which is China. With the new outbreak of COVID and the way Chinese authorities are slowing down their economy, the demand for oil has gone down hence preventing its price rise. Otherwise if China comes back, price could go back above $100.

And you can fix your fantasies with reasoned logical explanations? Because it looks very funny - oil and gas are flying down, and even below the maximum price set by the EU, and you dream of some kind of growth? This is only Russian propaganda - apart from Russian oil and gas, there are no other sources ...
Well, seriously - I'm these moans that "Europe will freeze without Russian gas" and "the world economy will collapse without Russian oil", but so far everything is freezing and collapsing only in Russia itself



Are you talking about China? So for China, Russia is a raw material depressive appendage. Part of which will soon become "the historical territory of China, which has returned to its native historical borders." Russia itself pushed China to this. And that is why China has chosen a "neutral" position on the Russian occupation of part of the territory of Ukraine. But Ukraine will liberate its territories, and China will receive and will not give it back - because Russia has no army "second in strength" or a "stable economy", there is nothing, everything in Russia is FAKE!
And with regard to the so-called economic union, it is generally ridiculous.
There are 2 so-called unions:

fictitious "Customs Union" - Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. The total GDP of these "economic giants", a total of 1.5% of the world
And no less fake in fact "Eurasian Economic Union". Armenia, Republic of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia. Tell me, is this union with 1.7% of the world economy very noticeable? Well, at least against the background of Germany's GDP? ))

My advice to you - if you want to retell Russian propaganda - take at least the numbers on the topic, study it, and don't shame yourself by saying such nonsense

The sensations has accelerated the clash and it has accelerated the cold war between Russian and other NATO countries.
the Ukraine president has hailed the nation unity during 2023 first address. I hope and wish the 2023 becomes the year of peace and prosperity for everyone.

They think they are the only ones who could impose sanctions. It would seem that they did not count that Russia is also part of another economic bloc. Russia still has a market in Asia, particularly China which is practically the manufacturer of the world. This will make its economy stable still even in the long run.

Obviously worse is yet to come. OPEC countries will also have its plan.
We are already affected despite how near the countries are to Russia, they could actually get some gas but the prices are doubling since the war.

A few days ago I read the news in the local information media regarding the prohibition of Russian gas and price restrictions. In the end, Vladimir Putin replied to what had narrowed him down by deciding on a decree banning oil and oil products for countries that agreed to price limit decisions. The countries that include the European Union and the G7, previously on December 5, the G7 countries agreed to limit the price of Russian crude oil to $ 60/barrel, the decision was made before 27 European Union countries agreed to limit prices.
Russia's decision to stop oil exports to Europe and the G7 countries will be a countermeasure that will take effect from 1 February to 1 July 2023 or for five months. The ban applies to all stages of supply up to the final buyer, but Putin can lift the ban in certain cases.

Putin's ban will make world oil prices heat up even more as a result the inflation rate which continues to be suppressed by the world bank through interest rates will continue to increase.

What might happen to Europe if this actually happened? will Europe be worse?

Another, predictably unsuccessful attempt to distort the situation and present it as if the author of the post would like it ))

if the author of this primitive lie CAREFULLY read what Europe is talking about, he would know that the reserves are collected for the guaranteed necessary supply of GAS to industry and households. And here the gas to the work of electric spotlights - ask the author, maybe it is still customary for them to illuminate the streets with gas lamps

But the EU does impose restrictions on "non-critical" use of electricity. All this is caused by terror, including economic terror against the EU, by an international terrorist. Yes, there are "energy saving" restrictions this year. It is reasonable!

But in some countries the situation has changed and is getting much better. For example, in Estonia, from February 1, 2023, Eesti Gaas will reduce the price of gas by almost 30 percent compared to today's level. For the company's home customers, the price will drop from the current 1.75 euros/m³ to 1.25 euros/m³. This is despite the fact that Russia hysterically squealed that "the Balts will freeze first and go bankrupt"!

Well, some information, which of course can be checked in open sources:
Exports of Russian gas to Europe have collapsed to the levels of the collapse of the USSR. At the end of 2022, Gazprom sold 101 billion cubic meters to non-CIS countries, which is half as much as a year earlier. Of this volume, according to the plan, China was to receive about 16 billion cubic meters through the Power of Siberia pipeline. Deliveries to Turkey and European countries - once the largest customers of Gazprom - amounted to only 85 billion cubic meters and became the lowest in the modern history of Russia, estimates BCS Global Markets analyst Ron Smith.

PS But in Russia, which is squealing and spitting on the whole world, in 2022 they have already changed the inflation calculation scheme in Russia 5 times in order to be able to "prove" the promise of the Kremlin ghoul that inflation has decreased by 3 times

The worst consequence of the gas crisis will be Europe's rejection of the democratic path of development and the transition to an autocratic form of government.  This cannot be allowed! 

Yes, indeed, in a democratic country there are politicians and bureaucrats in power who seek to avoid the necessary and timely management decisions. 

Politicians and bureaucrats very often engage in electoral populism.  At the same time, they avoid responsibility, and any managerial decision is associated with personal responsibility. 

However, the costs of autocracy far exceed the costs of democracy (for all its shortcomings).

No, I believe their energy storage is really full, but enough for people to use to keep warm in winter and not enough to use for other things.
The suspension of cooperation so far has caused both sides to suffer unnecessary losses, but if it continues until the winter of 2023, I believe that the EU will soon receive much greater consequences than Russia. Russia is actively building gas pipelines to China and Asia, once officially put into operation, their economy will soon recover. On the EU side, there is still no effective solution, they are just waiting for a miracle to happen to them.

Previous years we had gas heating working 24/7 during whole heating season at the office. This year we have "smart radiators" and lots of thermal detectors installed. Heating is turned to minimum at weekends and turns back to "comfort" 19C at working days. Thing is, that during Saturdays and Sundays the office cools down so much, that on Mondays, by 9 o'clock it is still rather chilly, and radiators barely manage to heat up till 19C during whole day. Whole heating system of the building is rather old, and works with new smart radiators incorrectly. Some of the radiators did not turn on automatically at all. Which makes third of the office cold, while other part tries to heat up to 19C. So on Mondays, part of the office sits few hours in winter jackets. In addition, electric radiators is a big NO in the office. With current flu issue, chilly office, part of the employees "work remotely", which makes whole economizing on gas ineffective imo.

this is very powerful images - even I was watching a documentary where someone has illuminated their place - and they said we only turn on the lights for some time particularly when we have a visitor that is how the whole world is coping up with the power shortage

The progress of the Energy Crisis in Europe is summarized very well in this photo that shows France slowly descending into darkness to save energy and try to get over Winter.
Austrian defense minister already warned about blackout in their country and in most of Europe pretty soon.
UK has been facing blackouts ever since July where London went dark for hours and the Tube (London Underground Service) has been facing increasing number of disruptions.
Germany is already shutting down part of its universities (libraries, study rooms, etc.) to save power.
Poland banned even charging phones at work
Switzerland is enforcing temperature laws!
And a lot more...

That's on top of all the industries that shut down over the past 10 months... And when I said They're lying about their energy storages being full some people called it propaganda... If it were even half full they wouldn't have to shut down so much.

Dmitry Medvedev (popularly nicknamed "Dimon"), a perfect example of social degradation from alcohol. Alcoholics with brain damage often come to a point where they begin to consider themselves Rimbaud, a Stasi agent, an MI6 secret agent, the world's greatest scientist, and so on. And, accordingly, they carry complete nonsense. So "Dimon" imagined himself to be Vanga Vanga, by the way, is the eternal hero of Russian news! As soon as Russia once again makes some kind of idiotic act, this is how the media immediately finds "Vanga's new prediction", where she describes this idiotic act, and gives a "100%" forecast that this is just very right and as a result the whole world will lose to Russia: )
But back from the madhouse to reality to gas

1. Having almost halved the consumption of Russian gas, Germany is preparing to completely abandon Russian oil, blocking the last supply channel that did not fall under the EU embargo.
One of Germany's largest refineries, Schwedt, which supplies gasoline to Berlin and the eastern part of the country, will stop buying oil from Russia via the Druzhba pipeline from January, Bloomberg reports, citing a statement by the German Ministry of Economy.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-27/germany-is-confident-a-key-refinery-will-be-fine-without-russian-oil

2. Fatal fall: Miller's report showed that Gazprom is in a "coma" state The report of the head of Gazprom for 2022 showed that the Kremlin destroyed the country's main company with its military adventure.
According to Miller, in the past year, the company's production amounted to 412.6 billion cubic meters of gas for domestic and foreign markets. 243.1 billion went to Russian consumers, the remaining almost 101 billion were sold abroad. Murid recalled that in 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic raged and the world economy collapsed, Gazprom produced 453 billion cubic meters of gas, in the crisis year 2021, 514 billion. However, the fall in production this year outdid them. As far as exports are concerned, Gazprom has experienced a two-fold collapse. So, in 2020, the company supplied abroad 200 billion cubic meters, and in the 21st - 185 billion cubic meters.

it is easy to check the data in open sources.

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Here is a link to a map of REAL actions in timeline. There is a date index at the bottom left - click on it and move the dates back. On February 24, 2022. And then go to today - you will see how the Ukrainian Armed Forces of Ukraine and volunteers clear their land from the brown plague of Rashism.

https://deepstatemap.live/#6/49.438/32.053

And this is 9 months of war, small Ukraine against the "second army of the world, with weapons that have no analogue in the world"
At the same time, Russia has already lost 150,000 of the first strike group that launched the attack in February, mobilized another 300,000 disposable soldiers, and now, apparently, there are almost none of them left either. And now there will be a second wave of mobilization in Russia. Even though it's not official

Oh yes. And this is without PMC Wagner - this is a private military office, which is prohibited by law in Russia! But Putin's friend owns it, which means you don't give a damn about the law, a former criminal belonging to the prison caste of "passive homosexuals." In this PMC, he recruited about 40,000 criminals, who were promised an amnesty for criminal offenses in Russia for participating in the murder of Ukrainians! More than half of these dregs of humanity are already in hell

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

Regarding the fact that the more Ukraine fights with Russia, the more territories it loses, it is absolutely wrong. Russia managed to capture many territories of Ukraine in the first weeks of the invasion of Russian troops. There are several reasons for this. Russia concentrated near the borders of Ukraine eight of the most combat-ready armies with a total strength of up to 200 thousand people, and all of them moved deep into its territory in armored vehicles. The total length of the invasion line was over 3,000 kilometers. Moreover, the most vulnerable direction for Ukraine was from the territory of Belarus, whose top officials assured that there would be no attack from their territory. The Russian troops that invaded from the territory of Belarus were tasked with reaching the outskirts of Kyiv in 18 hours, since the distance to Kyiv from there was the smallest. By the way, this group of Russian troops did not complete the task. In addition, the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not deliberately detain Russian troops on their borders, since in this case there was a high probability of immediately losing a significant part of their army. The Armed Forces of Ukraine let the occupiers deep into their territory, and it was there that they already gave them a real hell. Therefore, by the end of the first month, Russia was forced to urgently withdraw its fairly battered troops from the central and northern parts of Ukraine, so that they would not be completely defeated.

Since that time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been confidently liberating their territories, while capturing a significant part of the enemy’s armored vehicles as trophies. Only the most modern tanks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were taken away from the Russians by more than 500.
The most impressive was the operation to liberate the Kharkiv region in August and the left-bank part of the Kherson region, after which the Armed Forces of Ukraine firmly seized the strategic initiative in this war, and the Russians have since been forced to simply defend themselves, concentrating fruitless offensives in one or two directions. Now the Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing to completely clear the south of their country from the occupiers, where the front is approximately 300 kilometers with a depth of 100 kilometers and where the Russian occupiers are already pressed against the Sea of Azov. This is hindered so far only by the weather, which does not allow equipment to move quickly due to muddy ground.

As for the rest of the fronts, Russia exerts real pressure on the Western powers, even in files that do not concern them directly. But what happened after the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine is that Russia believed that it would finish the task in a short time and that Ukraine would not be able to withstand. Of course, what happened is the exact opposite, even after Russia imposed economic sanctions on the countries that support Ukraine, but it seems that those sanctions, in turn, backfired on Russia in reverse.
If Russia insists on sitting at the negotiating table with preconditions, this will undoubtedly prolong the crisis and may increase its international isolation, in addition to the fact that its economy will not be able to withstand any more despite the support of China, Iran and the rest of the countries that you have mentioned.

I'd argue that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (although at this point it is more of a multi-national armed forces rather than only Ukraine's) actually performed well and proved to be a decent match but the problem here that isn't letting them win is that they have to import almost everything they need to fight this war and those who are giving them what they need don't want this war to end.

They should contact Iran and buy the defense batteries against drones (from stealth UAVs to MAVs) which is a pretty cheap system that is also light, small and very effective. The cost would also be barely a grand. I'll try to post a video if I found it.

Finally the Dutch TTF prices are in three digits. Yesterday LNG was trading at $925 per thousand cubic meters, which is still approx. 200% higher compared to the rates in 2021. Right now there seems to be an influx of LNG to Europe, albeit at inflated prices. The major LNG exporters are making profits of a lifetime including Qatar, Australia, United States, Malaysia and Russia. I am not sure for how long the prices will remain at this level. If the winter season is extreme this time, then the rates can go up by quite a bit.

It must be said that Russia's UAV tactic is quite effective, Nato and Ukraine still have no effective solution to prevent it. I just read a local article, and it said that Ukraine is using billions of dollars worth of modern interceptor weapons just to destroy 10k to 14k dollars worth of Russian UAVs. Each US Patriot air defense missile is worth up to 1 million USD, if they don't come up with a solution soon, the cessation of aid to Ukraine will happen quickly.

Former President of the Russian Federation and current Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation since 2020, Medvedev today named 10 hypotheses for 2023, among them: an increase in oil prices to $150 per barrel and gas prices to $5,000 per 1,000 cubic meters. m; the collapse of the EU; the capture by Poland and Hungary of the western regions of Ukraine; Elon Musk's victory in the US presidential election and the collapse of the United States.

Even people close to Putin laugh at these forecasts. Thus, the founder of Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin, answering a question from journalists, called the forecasts of the former Russian Prime Minister Medvedev for 2023 "erotic fantasies".

"Yes, I got acquainted with the" forecasts "and I can not comment on erotic fantasies in any way. Of course, any fantasy takes place," he said dismissively.

After announcing that the drone fighters used by Russia are Iranian-made, the Iranians hastened to confirm this, claiming that the deal had been agreed upon for the military campaign against Ukraine a long time ago.
This deal confirms that Russia is not an important military power as we all imagined. You can imagine how a power like Russia would resort to completing arms deals with Iran, despite it being an arms-producing country. Most likely, it discovered that its military arsenal was not ready for a direct confrontation war. Another evidence is Russia's announcement two days ago of its willingness to sit at the negotiating table with Ukraine, but with preconditions, of course, which no party will accept.
Russia is seeking a safe exit as possible because it has become aware that it is in trouble in Ukraine and wants to avoid more losses, especially the areas that it had annexed to it.