The real question of the whole thing is Kiev. Is Russia quietly and silently strengthening its military in Belarus? We don't seem to hear much about it if it is being done. But using Belarus to take our Kiev would be the way to stop the war almost instantaneously.
If I were Russia the last thing I would want would be for Kiev to vanish. Or Central Ukraine. This for the same reason I would not like to see Israel go: Without a home for certain classes of undesirables (e.g., the Ukroid Nazis or the Israeli zealot 'settlers'), they would have to find somewhere else to infest.
I sense that Kiev is being preserved for a similar reason to why Dresden or Hiroshima or Nagasaki was. That is, to make a statement if need be. The difference is that in the case of Dresden, it was always the plan to show the Soviets what we could do. The U.S. probably would not have done the nukes should Japan have unconditionally surrendered prior to the event or had a coup, but most people knew that that was never going to happen. If/when NATO supplies real weapons to what's left of Ukraine I would not want to be in Kiev in the minutes afterward.
McGregor suspects that Russia will bisect Ukraine West of Kiev, from Belarus, to stop the flow of arms and 'the willing' troops if it comes to that. I see it as an option (followed by just giving the West to Poland), but I no longer believe it is likely for the reasons I mentioned above. I've always thought that if/when Russia got tired of playing around, they'd go through between Denipro and Zapharosia and make straight for the top of Modolva. Maybe or maybe not in relation to an attack from Belarus. Lately I'm starting to believe that it is a lot more tenable to just go back across the river at Kherson and that's the most likely escalation when and if the Russians get around to it. If not, they can achieve the grinding effect we see now by just finishing up the Donbas and working in to the NE areas from Russia proper.
Russia (and everyone else) may well have promised their special friends ownership of the 'Odessa People's Republic'. In that case we'll see a whole new group of 'Palestinians' and moves in that direction started before the war.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/BkXKJuAidQSb/ That's why I said very early on that I doubted Russia would take Odessa.
Ukraine is desperate now and well could try to pick a fight with anyone else just to get the attention off their losses. Could be Modova or Belarus or both. If the latter, Belarus would probably respond on their own, and probably quite effectively given the terrible condition Ukraine is in now. If things escalate to a Polish/Belarussian conflict then I've no doubt that Russia would get involved, and that's probably the reason for the significant Russian garrisoning in Belarus.