It’s difficult for me to understand your logic, according to which you refuse to watch the video on Telegram, the link to which you yourself asked for, and at the same time in the same message you yourself link to the video on Telegram. The only reasonable explanation for this is that you are tightly sealed in an information bubble that covers one side of events and completely ignores the other. In this case, you are an uninteresting interlocutor.
There is narrative that Ukraine should negotiate with Russia for the peace. But here is one more reason why it's not solution:
https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/1811064572154958141https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/515Russia needs to prepare for the seizure of the entire territory of Ukraine after Moscow and Kiev sign a peace treaty and end the war
Offcourse, Medvedev isn't someone who makes decisions, but in general, these words one more time shows that all these things like peace treaty, declarations and similar stuff is worthless thing.
You are right, it is extremely unprofitable for Ukraine to conclude a peace agreement this fall. Then presidential elections will have to be held, during which Zelensky will lose power, and most importantly, the border will have to be opened and Ukraine will lose the remnants of its mobilization potential. After this, Ukraine can be taken with bare hands. Anyone who hopes for a quick end to this conflict this year is an idiot. This topic will be at least five hundred pages long.
You do not have to use telegram to see the links I sent, you can see these in a browser. You have to go to the app for the ones you sent.
I have decent information of military events in the front and the politics in Europe and US and I do read what the Kremlin says - it is not censored, it is easy to access.
I saw how Naendra Modi (Indian prime minister) told Putin that "he is not really in favour of killing children", but I can obviously understand that India is super happy importing Ruzzian oil and other stuff.... at the right price and while getting US weapons. Like Türkiye (AKA Turkey) is NATO, but is ok with Ruzzia or Argentina is Neo-Lib but they are ok with Ruzzia and Brazil is ok with Ruzzia, but much busier with other stuff... Frankly, all this is not that difficult to understand nor analyse.
Nah, I am not in a bubble, and I am not blinded to the problems of BOTH sides. There is an evident push from some countries to try to close the war - war is bad for most business and I am guessing one of those is China that has a real state credit crunch the size of an elephant.
There is no clear advantage to either side mostly because the US is only allowing Ukraine to play with very limited options. Personally, I am not sure this attitude is sufficiently deterrence for a future war, but...
https://www.reuters.com/world/modi-tells-putin-that-death-innocent-children-is-very-painful-2024-07-09/"Whether it is war, conflict or a terrorist attack, any person who believes in humanity is pained when there is loss of lives," Modi said.
"But even in that, when innocent children are killed, the heart bleeds and that pain is very terrifying."
RE elections, you are taking a lot of things for granted. There is no indication that Zelensky would loose an election nor any indication (other than "Kremlin saying so") that he would be replaced with a pro-Putin president (it might actually be Zaluzhnyi). I would not bet he house on that happening.
As for the rest... border open, Ukraine for grabs.... wet dreams, you should simply try Ruzzian porn, is one of the few products that world really appreciates.
While you dream the f16s seem to be arriving along the next month - I do not bet the house on it, but it is looking more and more likely. There is a virtually unlimited supply of f16, many air forces would rather sell them and get something more modern, there is a pipeline of Ukrainian pilots being trained,... My guess is that the cost of the war for Ruzzia will climb another notch when they start being active.