Edit to update: Ukraine is 40 km deep in Putin's Ruzzia (some claim). Troop are 25 km from Kursk, 20 from the nearby Kurskaya nuclear power-plant. This is day 3 of this new offensive direction.
Guys, what's going on near Kursk? They say Russians are being chased ?
Indeed interesting development. On surface another
suicidal mission like all of the previous attempts. Russia has around 300k conscripts which it's not allowed to use inside Ukraine, but can definitely use on its own land, so PR move for next few days at great cost to Ukraine. Now let's see why Ukraine is willing to sacrifice it's remaining military force for some PR points now:
Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak announced during a national TV broadcast that the surprise incursion was launched to boost Kyiv's position in future negotiations with Russia, Telegram channel Country Politics reported.
The presidential adviser said Russian losses of territory, people and equipment will positively impact potential future negotiations with Russia in the war, launched by President Vladimir Putin in February 2022.
Heading into this winter with power cuts would be suicidal for Ukrainian leadership (and nothing good for EU), they risks full collapse and revolt from its citizens. So this is UA's last hurrah before they must start negotiations with Russia. Like i've been saying, this madness should finally end before 2025
The "suicidal mission" is now equivalent to what Ruzzia can take in more than a month of fighting anywhere else in the front. Yesterday's data shows 18 km of front with a maximum penetration of 20 km.
If there is a nearby negotiation (and it seems Zelensky has pointed in that direction and the last summit in Switzerland seemed to be a preparation to measure positions internationally), there is of course an interest in having as many PoWs as possible and getting as much land as possible.
It also seems there are some strategic objectives around creating a more defensible border and cutting at least one important railway line.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-incursion-kursk-region-putin-b2593051.htmlWar monitor the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Ukrainian soldiers had penetrated more than six miles (10km) across the border, breaking through two Russian defensive lines and a stronghold.
Russia declared a state of emergency amid the fierce fighting, despite seeking to claim that the situation was under control. Russian state media said that 3,000 people have been evacuated from the area.
This does not look "suicidal" to me. You know... compared to what Ruzzia has to throw in the meat grinder for an equivalent result, one would say that you are trying to make it look the opposite. Just saying.
Let's face it: Ruzzia has been caught on the wrong foot... by a lot.
...
Yes yes ingenious war tactic, when you're already stretched thin and giving up territory every day just collect your reserves and throw them in an attack (cause everyone knows you loose less troops when attacking right
) Odd that Zaluzhnyi hasn't done that before, if he had, this would've already been over by now. Totally rational to call it a win even before we find out if UA can hold it for more than 98hrs, you're like UA;s cheerleader squad whatever UA does is totally amazing and a right decision, why, because you're unable to say otherwise and don't even attempt to appear remotely objective
Oh, sure, sure... bad idea, bad tactic meat grinder, reserves... all the buzz words, but at the end of the day Ukraine has freed from Putin a good chunk of Ruzzian land in just a couple of days. If you want it back come take it or... trade it for something Ukraine likes. Keep on you accomplished military genius, move your beers in the troll farm bar and imagine winning imaginary wars.
Meanwhile, surrender of the untrained border troops has been filmed in-mass - again, want them back? I will update on this, it is starting to look embarrasing for Ruzzia to have such a lassitude in defence and I would not want you to miss the opportunity to say something stupid again.
Easy way to spot propaganda is they have to claim that whatever happens, surely happens for the best, and any outcome is surely to your benefit, you're unable to even discuss any costs, downsides or risks. On the contrary my argument is that this doesn't make any military sense, but potentially can destabilize the regime with some rogue general like with Prigozhin so it's a
psyop, build up internal pressure on Putin so that his hawks will demand to rush troops from Kharkov to free Russian land right away. If Ukraine manages to hold on to this land when negotiations start, or Russia moves it's troop away from Kharkov i will concede that this was a smart move before negotiations, on the other hand if Russia doesn't overreact and UA retreats in few days this would be a breaking point for Ukraine. But you're unable to do that, you're just parroting how amazing it is that few thousands soldiers with tanks were able to overrun some border guards, on a thousand km border. Goals and outcome of this mission doesn't really fit into your propaganda, does it?
The "suicidal mission" is now equivalent to what Ruzzia can take in more than a month of fighting anywhere else in the front. Yesterday's data shows 18 km of front with a maximum penetration of 20 km.
If there is a nearby negotiation (and it seems Zelensky has pointed in that direction and the last summit in Switzerland seemed to be a preparation to measure positions internationally), there is of course an interest in having as many PoWs as possible and getting as much land as possible.
It also seems there are some strategic objectives around creating a more defensible border and cutting at least one important railway line.
I'm wondering what's the goal of this operation. There is huge gas station in Sudzha where it's transitted to Europe through Ukraine, it's important object.
There is theory that Ukraine can try to take Kursk nuclear power plant, it's about 70km from border. Not sure how real this scenario can be. But it's obvious that Russia wasn't ready for this operation.
I just don't get that argument, Ukraine is fully capable of stopping the transit from their side, what's the point of capturing gas station on Russian territory just to stop transmitting gas through Ukraine
NPP also doesn't make much sense either, little upside ton of liability, UA wont be able to benefit from it for this winter, and there's no shortage of power in RU and RU should be able to cope with a loss of one NPP pretty easy, plus would be a silly thing to do when you don't even have enough manpower to hold the line in Donbas.
Don't look for a military meaning in this mission, it's a long shot attempt to destabilize/demoralize Russia from within. A gem for propaganda, first time foreign troops in Russia since WW2, German tanks again on Russian soil etc etc etc got to wait and see how well it'll work out, to decide if it was worth the cost.
"Russia brought the war to our land, and it should feel what it has done. We are striving to achieve our goals as soon as possible in peacetime – under the conditions of a just peace. And it will happen."
-Zelenskyy
In either case, appears that UA is signaling that negotiations are near and they're just trying to improve their position. Which i think everyone can welcome such development.
