Topic: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] - page 89. (Read 73577 times)

Ukraine produce artillery shells, but it's tiny numbers, maybe up to 1000-2000, while they're using similar amounts just in one day.
BTW, there isn't much talk about it, but South Korea suppoied more shells to Ukraine than all EU countries combined. Impressive from Korean perspective, sad from European:
https://m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20231205000300315
Russia producing 85 000 shells is impressive, but when you're spending whole month production in 4-5 days, that's probably not something to brag about.

The US couldn't push Russia into a full-scale war with Ukraine. That's part of the reason why they instigated the Israel/Hamas thing, and started pushing war in Syria. Russia doesn't want to conquer Ukraine. If it did, it would have long ago.


EXPERTS: Putin wants to keep Ukraine out of NATO, not conquer it

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https://www.naturalnews.com/2023-12-11-putin-wants-keep-ukraine-out-of-nato.html
The Western media has been working up the narrative that Russian President Vladimir Putin is just a power-crazed imperialist who wants to invade Ukraine and the surrounding countries to reestablish the Soviet Empire in Europe.

In fact, a CNN article dated June 11, 2022, said: "By summoning the memory of Peter the Great, it also becomes clear that Putin’s aims are driven by some sense of historical destiny. And Putin's project of imperial restoration could – in theory – extend to other territories that once belonged to the Russian Empire or the Soviet Union, something that should raise alarms in all the countries that emerged from the collapse of the USSR."

This did not sit well with the daily news and opinion site LewRockwell.com, which proved this to be untrue. According to the site, Russia started the conflict with Ukraine without an invasion objective, but a limited tactical intrusion to bring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's government to the negotiating table and guarantee that Ukraine would not join NATO. It supported this argument by juxtaposing the Russian president's military approach to Ukraine with that of Israel in Gaza.

Putin invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, with some 190,000 troops. Meanwhile, as the Israeli government's response to the October 7 attack by Hamas, it amassed 300,000 troops around the Gaza Strip in anticipation of a ground invasion. The Gaza Strip is a narrow stretch of coastal land with a total area of 141 square miles populated by some 2.2 million people. On the other hand, Ukraine is one big country –  the second largest country in Europe after Russia – and runs for 817 miles from west to east and 554 miles from north to south. Its area totals 233,032 square miles and has more than 42 million inhabitants. So, the territory of Ukraine is more than 1600 times larger than that of the Middle East enclave and its population is nearly 20 times more.

The Israelis also gathered 50 percent more troops than Russia to invade a coastal strip whose population is five percent that of Ukraine and whose territory is less than one percent of Ukraine's territory. It mobilized more troops for its invasion of the tiny strip than Putin had gathered for his alleged plan to conquer the second-largest country on the continent as well as the other European nations. Putin's invasion force of fewer than 200,000 soldiers was very small by any measurable standard. If he really wanted to invade Kyiv, he would have to go in with far greater numbers.

"There's no way that an army that had 190,000 troops [at the most] could have conquered all of Ukraine… it's just impossible," one of the world's leading foreign policy experts John Mearsheimer stated in the interview below. He added that it would require at least two million troops to conquer and occupy Ukraine.
...

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Both of those statements are wrong.



You have just hit the spot! That is exactly the problem! A bunch of journalists that need to sell newspaper no-matter-what and a bunch of generals, particularly US generals, that are not accountable for the results, will not suffer if Ukraine fails and certainly are not know for being able themselves to "fight with a tight budget" (I laughed a lot on this one coming from US generals) telling Ukraine how they have to fight... inclusive the fantastic doctrine about minefields consisting in "going around them".

OMG... this would be so funny if it were not a war.

The US has to make a decision and there are no shortcuts to it: give enough to hold for ever (uneconomic), give enough to win this war (hurts, but hurts only for a little while) or let Ruzzzia take whatever, which brings another war in 4 years - closer to the US bases in EU.

Ukraine doesn’t produce artillery shells at all and spends 5,000 shells a day, doesn’t anything bother you about this strategy?

So you agreed that west has been sending less aid than needed for Ukrain's victory for almost 2 years now. And now with war fatigue, changing leaderships, loosing attention to Israel/Palestine conflict, less than 50% of Americans support sending more aid to Ukraine and falling, polls showing Biden loosing to Trump with US going into the elections year, Zelenskiy's popularity falling with infighting in Ukraine's leadership, and US loosing moral high ground with a The United States vetoed a United Nations resolution Friday backed by almost all other Security Council members and many other nations demanding an immediate humanitarian cease-fire in Gaza. how realistic do you think that Ukraine gets "proper yearly long aid package"? Sorry to squash your hopes but this NY times article might hint on the answer.


Lets redefine winning, and Ukraine now needs to fight in such a way that they loose slower  conflict of interests at its best

I am not sure you understand the situation, but first things first: a) UK inflation is 4.6%, you are using a year old data. b) UK interest rates are at 5.25%
Now, if you want to compare with Ruzzzzzzzia ... is 7.5%, BUT the rates are above 15%. You have mid-high inflation and high rates. I guess you are trying very hard to ignore that Ruzzia has very limited marging to contain inflation: (a) do nothing a get into hyperinflation (b) raise rates and kill utterly the growth. Even you must know this.

But the funny thing is that it does not matter, because the UK does not have to spend more than a 2% of the gdp on weapons - because the UK is not at war. Ruzzia (surprise surprise) is in a full blown, high-intensity war and can (a) retire an end the war or (b) continue the war and risk hyperinflation or stagflation.

And yes, the risk of hyperinflation is very real because many of the people who should be working have fled (the educated ones) or are in the front (the poor ones) while the production for the war is calling for extra workforce. The recipee for a salary driven inflation is served.

Just pray that the Saudis do not decide to increase the production by a couple million barrels a day at the same time.

Ya, indeed

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-dnieper-kherson-river-1851143

"The Odesa outlet Dumskaya described the operation to maintain the bridgehead as resulting in large losses for little achievable purpose.

"Marines cross the river and most are killed as they approach the shore," it said. "There is no talk of any further breakthrough; now the forces are being wasted simply on staying there. For what?"

It called for the Ukrainian command "to curtail this operation," which was going to be linked with the offensive in the Zaporozhzhia region which has already ended."



BTW, how is Russia growth compared with UK 0.5% growth and 6% inflation, is that better than Russia?

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/september2023#:~:text=The%20core%20CPIH%20annual%20inflation,in%20the%20constructed%20historical%20series.

Krynki reminds me of the way my cat used to play with a mouse for a while before putting an end to it with a quick bite of the spine.  The Russians get to hit anywhere they want along along a tortuous supply line.  Yet one more illustration of Jewkrainian strategy which screams the goal of losing as many Ukrainians as possible.

Dima in his just-finished show floats the idea that the PR move do draw attention away from the Krynki disaster this time might be the use nBC.  We'll see I guess.

  The Fall | Ukraine is Preparing A Gesture Of Goodwill - Withdrawing. Military Summary For 2023.12.11
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MROIMABiPME

Like the US supplying armaments to  Ukraine, Russia is eating into her own stockpiles. That's why she is calling for her people to help manufacture more.

The thing we don't clearly know is, how much ammo is Russia getting from other countries?... like from China in return for the gas going to China through the Siberian pipeline.

Nothing could possibly go wrong with this brilliant strategy.

The Ukraine war is in the sidelines... at least for Russia as she expands worldwide... while Ukraine declines with every step she takes.

It seems that Ukraine has stopped in a quite expedite and violent way the Ruzzian attempt to attack the Krinki bridgehead on the east bank of the dnipro. One could say that the drone operators of Ukraine basically "work from home". The degree of surveillance and potential to destroy anything in 20 km of Kherson is astonishing - nothing moves without Ukraine knowing. The only exception is the air launched heavy bombs, which are inaccurate but in large quantities so occasionally they hit something of value.

Other bits of the front have also some good news, but it changes from day to day, .... stalemate.#

Oh, Be.open you are going to like the price levels in your country... 6% inflation, 3% growth... If you cannot do the math I will for you: Ruzzia is effectively shrinking a 3%.

^^^ Good point.

But the big point is that with Russia's better general accuracy, they are doing more than 4x the damage on Ukraine.

However, when you are sweeping the floor with a broom, the last little bit is often the hardest. For example, it's easy to sweep up the big piles of dirt. But if you want to get every, tiny speck of dirt, you need to use a wet mop to mop it all up.

Russia is at the wet mop stage with Ukraine, even though they haven't started mopping, yet.

This is a high-intensity military conflict, Russia spends about 20,000 artillery shells daily, and Ukraine about 5,000 artillery shells per day. I hope you have not yet lost the ability to do basic arithmetic in order to independently balance daily spending and monthly production.

I could almost believe you... if it weren't for that little visit to North Korea by your Chief Psychopath asking the very powerful kingdom, of roughly 25 million people to please supply shells so that the Ruzzian slave army could keep on pushing. Things do not collapse until they collapse, so keep on banking on "global attrition of shells" it may be the only thing you have left to hope for.

A really good target is 85,000 rounds per month, which the US plans to achieve within five years. In other words, the US is five years behind Russia in artillery shell production because Russia is producing 85,000 shells a month right now. Try to learn to live with this thought - Russia produces approximately the same amount of artillery shells as all the countries of the collective West combined.

Whatever you say on oil.

On being "low on ammo", I have not heard the declaration, but you must understand what being "low" means in the context of the US army. They simply cannot sleep if they know that they could not invade Iran and China, while defending from Ruzzia at the same time in a month. All the US army is an overkill of stores, technologies, personnel and supply chains.

And yet still, this is not what you said - "stocks globally low" is not "US stocks low".

Edited to add: It seems that Australia may be transfering quite a few F-18 planes to Ukraine. A bit of an old beast, but carries a lot of payload.

Cool one.  Glad I wasn't around!

  Insane Explosion:🔥Russian T-55 Kamikaze tank was packed full of explosives then sent to AFU dugout
  https://www.bitchute.com/video/5qRJEXgai0Ow/

Sometimes, unintentionally, even politicians say the truth

https://nypost.com/2023/07/09/biden-lets-slip-during-interview-us-low-on-artillery-ammunition-rounds-as-it-tries-to-aid-ukraine/

...and, you reposted my link to prove I'm wrong? On both your and mine (same) link current price is $56, not $50, and last time it was $80
was 2 months ago, not yesterday as you suggested

155mm is not "depleted worldwide", only the excess stocks have been sent to Ukraine, while most countries keep their strategic stock pretty much intact. The US has not passed to Ukraine anything they cannot spare without hindering their ability to wage two significant wars. South Korea has stocks of unknown depth. Perhaps only Europe is doing more of an effort.

But worry not, US has ramped up production so they can spare even more. https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/2023/03/28/us-army-eyes-six-fold-production-boost-of-155mm-shells-used-in-ukraine/


24.000 a month is a good target. High intensity and now sustainable effort.

Yep, there is a dip for sure. Just follow URAL oil, not the general commodity chart.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/urals-oil