The result depends on the degree of support. Ukraine has proven more resilient than expected, Europe an US more willing to confront, Ruzzia less powerful than could be expected... so this is a situation can be broken by sending a proper yearly long aid package. As of now, Ukrainians have done a lot with a very limited supply of weapons and limits to their use.
In the end, it depends on how good of ally is US going to be and, to be honest, how smart they are about their own stance in the world if they choose to step back.
Something really strange occurred today with the price of Ural Oil. from 80 to 50 US per barrel.
In the end, it depends on how good of ally is US going to be and, to be honest, how smart they are about their own stance in the world if they choose to step back.
Something really strange occurred today with the price of Ural Oil. from 80 to 50 US per barrel.
So you agreed that west has been sending less aid than needed for Ukrain's victory for almost 2 years now. And now with war fatigue, changing leaderships, loosing attention to Israel/Palestine conflict, less than 50% of Americans support sending more aid to Ukraine and falling, polls showing Biden loosing to Trump with US going into the elections year, Zelenskiy's popularity falling with infighting in Ukraine's leadership, and US loosing moral high ground with a The United States vetoed a United Nations resolution Friday backed by almost all other Security Council members and many other nations demanding an immediate humanitarian cease-fire in Gaza. how realistic do you think that Ukraine gets "proper yearly long aid package"? Sorry to squash your hopes but this NY times article might hint on the answer.
The New York Times - Dec. 11, 2023
U.S. and Ukraine Search for a New Strategy After Failed Counteroffensive
...
The Russian military, after its own failed drive to Kyiv in 2022, has begun to reverse its fortunes and is rebuilding its might. Moscow now has more troops, ammunition and missiles, and has increased its firepower advantage with a fleet of battlefield drones, many of them supplied by Iran, according to American officials.
...
The Americans are pushing for a conservative strategy that focuses on holding the territory Ukraine has, digging in and building up supplies and forces over the course of the year. The Ukrainians want to go on the attack, either on the ground or with long-range strikes, with the hopes of seizing the world’s attention.
...
Many Ukrainian leaders do not realize how precarious continued U.S. funding for the war is, American officials said. These Ukrainian generals and senior civilian officials have unrealistic expectations about what the United States will supply, they said. They are asking for millions of rounds of artillery, for example, from Western stockpiles that do not exist.
American officials say Ukraine will have to fight on a tighter budget.
Some in the U.S. military want Ukraine to pursue a “hold and build” strategy — to focus on holding the territory it has and building its ability to produce weapons over 2024. The United States believes the strategy will improve Ukraine’s self-sufficiency and ensure Kyiv is in a position to repel any new Russian drive.
The goal would be to create enough of a credible threat that Russia might consider engaging in meaningful negotiations at the end of next year or in 2025.
...
American officials say that without a change in strategy, 2024 could be akin to 1916, the deadliest year of World War I, when thousands of young men lost their lives and battle lines changed very little.
Ukrainian hospitals are already filled with injured soldiers. Ambulances moved back and forth from the front throughout this year’s counteroffensive. Ukraine has not released official numbers of its war dead, but the losses, officials concede, have been steep.
The 2023 counteroffensive was built around remaking Ukraine’s army in the image of America’s. It was, critics said, the approach the United States had tried in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, largely unsuccessfully.
...
U.S. and Ukrainian strategists did not initially realize how much more Russians were strengthening their defenses. Ukrainian troops training in Germany practiced breaking through defenses far less strong than what they would eventually face.
...
Ukraine does not need to claw back all of the nearly 20 percent of the country it has lost to win the war, American officials say.
...
American officials are trying to prepare the Ukrainians for next year, telling them that whatever aid Congress approves is not likely to match the kind of funding that Washington provided in the first two years of the war.
“They have to fight smartly and efficiently,” said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who recently visited Ukraine.
U.S. and Ukraine Search for a New Strategy After Failed Counteroffensive
...
The Russian military, after its own failed drive to Kyiv in 2022, has begun to reverse its fortunes and is rebuilding its might. Moscow now has more troops, ammunition and missiles, and has increased its firepower advantage with a fleet of battlefield drones, many of them supplied by Iran, according to American officials.
...
The Americans are pushing for a conservative strategy that focuses on holding the territory Ukraine has, digging in and building up supplies and forces over the course of the year. The Ukrainians want to go on the attack, either on the ground or with long-range strikes, with the hopes of seizing the world’s attention.
...
Many Ukrainian leaders do not realize how precarious continued U.S. funding for the war is, American officials said. These Ukrainian generals and senior civilian officials have unrealistic expectations about what the United States will supply, they said. They are asking for millions of rounds of artillery, for example, from Western stockpiles that do not exist.
American officials say Ukraine will have to fight on a tighter budget.
Some in the U.S. military want Ukraine to pursue a “hold and build” strategy — to focus on holding the territory it has and building its ability to produce weapons over 2024. The United States believes the strategy will improve Ukraine’s self-sufficiency and ensure Kyiv is in a position to repel any new Russian drive.
The goal would be to create enough of a credible threat that Russia might consider engaging in meaningful negotiations at the end of next year or in 2025.
...
American officials say that without a change in strategy, 2024 could be akin to 1916, the deadliest year of World War I, when thousands of young men lost their lives and battle lines changed very little.
Ukrainian hospitals are already filled with injured soldiers. Ambulances moved back and forth from the front throughout this year’s counteroffensive. Ukraine has not released official numbers of its war dead, but the losses, officials concede, have been steep.
The 2023 counteroffensive was built around remaking Ukraine’s army in the image of America’s. It was, critics said, the approach the United States had tried in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, largely unsuccessfully.
...
U.S. and Ukrainian strategists did not initially realize how much more Russians were strengthening their defenses. Ukrainian troops training in Germany practiced breaking through defenses far less strong than what they would eventually face.
...
Ukraine does not need to claw back all of the nearly 20 percent of the country it has lost to win the war, American officials say.
...
American officials are trying to prepare the Ukrainians for next year, telling them that whatever aid Congress approves is not likely to match the kind of funding that Washington provided in the first two years of the war.
“They have to fight smartly and efficiently,” said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who recently visited Ukraine.
Lets redefine winning, and Ukraine now needs to fight in such a way that they loose slower
conflict of interests at its best 
