Topic: Ryans' log - page 12. (Read 50750 times)
The moves seem rather muted as we continue to grind down. Are we eventually expecting a plunge down similar to August 10th? I can't help but feel that if we keep on this way without gathering any bullish momentum, that we could see sub-400 in a hurry.
Also, that v of (iii) is targeted for a break of $442 which is going to be seen as bearish by many, and shorts may compound and selling may pick up leading to a longer v below my target and possibly near $400.
Also [not sure if strictly relevant in an EW thread] seems right now at ~450 we are sitting on this long term support line which held about 6 times so far... could have a big psychological effect too if broken on volume
http://i.imgur.com/G5WVQgQ.png
by the way... masterful call so far
Ah...gotcha. Good info. I don't think you are a pot-stirrer at all! Thanks again, Ryan!
Well, I was thinking after v, which shouldn't get way lower than iii since the waves are small.
Well, this is using typical points (as always) but it is still only the v of (iii) of 3 of V so there is quite a ways further we can go. Also, that v of (iii) is targeted for a break of $442 which is going to be seen as bearish by many, and shorts may compound and selling may pick up leading to a longer v below my target and possibly near $400.
Not trying to stir the pot here, but it's a little bit of the psychology that triggers larger moves and sentimental shifts
Well, I was thinking after v, which shouldn't get way lower than iii since the waves are small.
Then maybe we get a big, oversold rally???
I wouldn't say that we are that oversold yet. I'm not sure when you are talking about. After iii is hit? For the rally...
Remember, we are in tiny subwaves of V, so pullbacks are also going to be tiny and short lived (relatively speaking) so the iv will only be a ~$10 correction.
Then maybe we get a big, oversold rally???
An interesting chart before us at the moment. It's a difficult one to analyze, but I think I have something for ya.
In this first chart, I have an expanding leading diagonal. Every down tick is a clear 5 waver, and the upticks are clear 3 wavers. Combined with the overlap throughout, I think this is a likely scenario. The target to look for would be iii at ~$446. A more bearish view would have all these overlapping waves as nested waves, but I won't go there until we get huge extensions lower
I also have a zoomed in chart with the smaller subwaves penciled in. I had to use higher degree labels than the chart above since I'm running out
The weakness in the move shows in the EWO and the ill formed waves lower. It appears what we are looking at is nested 1/2's of iii (building toward the target in the chart above) since we keep getting lower lows on the EWO for the larger waves.
Eat it!
Edit in bold
In this first chart, I have an expanding leading diagonal. Every down tick is a clear 5 waver, and the upticks are clear 3 wavers. Combined with the overlap throughout, I think this is a likely scenario. The target to look for would be iii at ~$446. A more bearish view would have all these overlapping waves as nested waves, but I won't go there until we get huge extensions lower
I also have a zoomed in chart with the smaller subwaves penciled in. I had to use higher degree labels than the chart above since I'm running out
The weakness in the move shows in the EWO and the ill formed waves lower. It appears what we are looking at is nested 1/2's of iii (building toward the target in the chart above) since we keep getting lower lows on the EWO for the larger waves.Eat it!
Edit in bold
/Push
Ryn! You don't like your fans anymore?
Ryn! You don't like your fans anymore?
Are you kidding? You guys keep me coming back!!
All the sideways... Now that we are moving, I will get something posted in a few
...mins, hours, days? shall i go to sleep or wait?=D
/Push
Ryn! You don't like your fans anymore?
Ryn! You don't like your fans anymore?
Quick update;
That count is all over the place, so I revised it since we did get both overlap of the iv/i and a higher high after that. This moves the potential upside target up a little and because of this, moves the wave-(iii) target up a little. Labeled as a WXY (complex correction) which consists of a series of ABC's, each one making new price extremes over the last. This correction could be complete, but I added the extended target because it is possible while still locking in the divergence on the hourly time frame.
The commas are the lowest degree abc's and the w-x is lower than the (w)-(x)-(y)
That count is all over the place, so I revised it since we did get both overlap of the iv/i and a higher high after that. This moves the potential upside target up a little and because of this, moves the wave-(iii) target up a little. Labeled as a WXY (complex correction) which consists of a series of ABC's, each one making new price extremes over the last. This correction could be complete, but I added the extended target because it is possible while still locking in the divergence on the hourly time frame.
The commas are the lowest degree abc's and the w-x is lower than the (w)-(x)-(y)
Ryan, is it possible that I'll buy bitcoins at $380/BTC in next 2 weeks and sell them at $1600/BTC at the end of this year ?
Sorry, but that is a question I cannot answer at this time
You can not reply using the interpretation of the graph, ok.
But what is your feeling about it? Could you tell us?
Thank you!
Ryan, is it possible that I'll buy bitcoins at $380/BTC in next 2 weeks and sell them at $1600/BTC at the end of this year ?
Sorry, but that is a question I cannot answer at this time
... I'm sure it is one of 1,000,000 possibilities. Ryan, is it possible that I'll buy bitcoins at $380/BTC in next 2 weeks and sell them at $1600/BTC at the end of this year ?
Sorry, but that is a question I cannot answer at this time
Ryan, is it possible that I'll buy bitcoins at $380/BTC in next 2 weeks and sell them at $1600/BTC at the end of this year ?
Thanks, that's what I thought, but it's crystal clear now 
Seems like time-wise, the ending diagonal would start to be not so diagonal if it pushed to a new high from here though - it would be starting to expand
EDIT : I guess at that point, it would just turn into a regular impulse c with an extended iii ...
Seems like time-wise, the ending diagonal would start to be not so diagonal if it pushed to a new high from here though - it would be starting to expand
EDIT : I guess at that point, it would just turn into a regular impulse c with an extended iii ...
Ryan, if this is a corrective c of (ii), would the low of iv overlapping the high of i on the 10 min chart you posted invalidate the 'one more leg up' count and lean back into your 'ending diagonal' scenario where we have already peaked?
I am a little confused as to what the rules are in a corrective pattern
I am a little confused as to what the rules are in a corrective pattern
A wave-C holds the same rules as any impulse. 4 can not overlap 1. On that note, my iv is $0.28 above the top of my i. If we do get overlap before a new high, then yes it does invalidate the extended 3 count and the ending diagonal is still in play. However, we could get overlap and still get higher highs if it were to make a larger diagonal instead of the one I drew out in the first chart today.
Ryan, if this is a corrective c of (ii), would the low of iv overlapping the high of i on the 10 min chart you posted invalidate the 'one more leg up' count and lean back into your 'ending diagonal' scenario where we have already peaked?
I am a little confused as to what the rules are in a corrective pattern
I am a little confused as to what the rules are in a corrective pattern
Oops, my bad. Rechecked my knowledge. C could indeed be ending diagonal.
Do you mean ending diagonal in wave C here? But they only happen in 5th, C must be impulse.
Edit: Looking at it now it may be C with extended third.
An ending diagonal can be a 5th or the final C of a correction. I was talking about the c of (ii).
I also posted a chart a little bit later that had the extended 3 count
If the ending diagonal is the wrong assumption, There is one more up to come.
This will move the target in my update up by a negligible amount.
This will move the target in my update up by a negligible amount.
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