Topic: Ryans' log - page 15. (Read 50746 times)

I would like to post an update on a previous count I had. With divergences in underlying indicators, this count could come to fruition. It now has a complete B and if the C is held below the wave-I low at $538.38, it would simply be a revision to my current count just like I would do if we were to invalidate one of my counts. As labeled, this count is very bearish, but it can still be counted as III/IV as long as it doesn't pass the wave-I low.

That is the bottom of 3 of V of (C) OR 3 of (5) of III of (C). Which one it is will have to be determined later. Obviously the latter is more bearish and drawn out. As of right now, my more likely count is that we are in the V of (C), so nearing the bottom soon. But like I said, I won't know until I have more data to make a better analysis of the situation down there.

Thanks.  Is that the end then of the downtrend per EW?  We proceed with a rally after that?

This is really the best I can do without knowing the actual ending points of (iii) and (iv)

The bottom of 3 of V could fall anywhere between 1.618x the wave-1 at the lower end to 0.618x the gross of (i) - (iii) then take that off the end of (iv). So I just projected it using typical points. It has the possibility of a lot of variance until the next two waves are set in.

Thanks.  What's your latest target for (v)?

If you are referring to the (iii) in the box, then back up around $465 for (iv) and down in the (v). The further out you go with targets, the less accurate they potentially get, so I like to keep it to the next 1-3 waves depending on what wave we are in at the time.

If we hit the target at iii, where does EW take us after that?

Target hit and more, but still no invalidation. The rise was a clear 3 wave move (corrective). The correction may not be complete, but since it has 3 waves, the highest high is likely in. If the correction continues for some time, it may turn into a triangle before continuing on it's path down.

I feel that the over-hype in the PP news helped it to pass my target (incited a little panic), but sell pressure was just too strong to overcome and invalidate the count. I'm not sure what to make of this Satoshi news and how it may affect the overall trajectory of the decline, so for now, I won't be taking either consideration into account.

Today's chart is just a close-up of the corrective move off the bottom. It is a clear abc, but it also was so fast, that I'm not sure it's done. I do think the highest high is in and we will just get a consolidation here in this range from ~$465-475. After a spike like that, we need more of a time correction than a price correction so this is what leads me to that conclusion.


The target for the coming completion of (iii) will remain the same for now, at $448-456, but this may change if we do get that triangle.

As pinky said, wave 3 can extend quite a bit. Bitcoin cycles more like a commodity in that the 5th waves are, at times, much larger than the 3rd. This is especially true with the larger time frame/higher degree waves. The 5th wave of the last bubble was enormous compared to the rest of that cycle. Intraday waves are more akin to stock ratios.

Update coming soon

Nah, not witchcraft... Magicized!

That 3 is 3 of V of (C) OR 3 of (5) of III of (C). When I get back to my computer, I will get some better targets for the next few days

Elliot waves can get extensions (1.61, 2.61,...), meaning this wave can go below 300.

Witchcraft!  

But one question for further understanding: You are estimating that wave 3 of C (I'm right?) brings us down to ~420 and with wave 5 of C we will test the April low.

But talking about a possible mayor capitulation (< 300) it would need another mayor wave? Is this correct? Or could the current wave C include this mayor capitulation?

You guys excited yet?  
With the slide getting back in full effect, I have some targets worked out for the coming days. The first point to look for is the minute iv in the $467-472 area. This is one of those smaller degree waves I was talking about early in the thread that isn't worth trying to trade it since fees eat up much of the profits. Next we have the v of (iii). Look in the $448-455 range for a minor bottom before bouncing back to the mid to upper 460's again after which, there is a very good chance to see the infamous $440 break. Anything after this is just an estimated target, subject to change depending on how the next couple of waves play out. As of now, the more major 3 of V (OR 3 of (5) of III from my alternate count in the 3rd chart from post 233 above) should fall in the $420's - 430's. This is where it'll bounce around for a couple of days as the Bulls defend the invalidation of their count ($420.27) though I find it rather unlikely that we are in a Bullish count right now anyway, but I still have to keep it alive since the support has not been breached yet.


I will update again later.

Thank you so very much for the analysis and, as usual, the excellent explanation!

Sorry guys! I made a few edits. The invalidation and the last chart was the wrong link

As stated a little bit ago, it seems the wave-v of (c) was truncated since it did not make a new high. This is allowed and since it counts as 5 waves, it is a completed abc and was confirmed by the  overlap of wave-i.
This is the close up to show the count of the (c) and the beginnings of 3 of V OR iii of 5 of III. Truncation is a sign of weakness in the move. It appears that the large spike yesterday was mostly a single entity pumping the price a bit. Possibly trying to stir up the market and create a little panic. This is speculation of course, but the truncation leads me to believe this is the case since the buying was so weak for the 5th.


Invalidation is at the $489.40 high for this very short term count. If it invalidates, the next likely count would be a complex correction which I will count and post it up if it happens.

The big picture


We are still in the purple count though I did post a possible count where the III is actually a lower degree 3 and we are working on 5 of the III now. Determination of which count it is will come after we get the final 3 waves down here. That other count is below


I do want to post another possible count that could have a nice rally for the short to mid term. This count has us finishing up the B wave soon and a C that would reach to the middle 500's. This is the count that I was originally updating during the last sharp fall a few weeks ago. It has us in the (2) of III. This is a very bearish count, so not very high on my probabilities list. I just want to make it known .


Sorry for the chart pr0n! J/K, I know you guys like it
Have fun!

Edited the invalidation, sorry!

So you mean like that?:



That's what I suppose now.

What kind of targets do you guys have on the next wave down, then the move up from that?  Invalidations?

I was just counting the same! The overlap with the i confirmed it was over.

in my count on huobi, we had a truncated wave v. you can count 5 subwaves on the 15m time frame, we failed to make a new high, then pulled back. so that was my take. it is still valid in EW terms, to my understanding. i believe this completed ABC and the down we saw last night/this morning is part of a new wave. down trend to commence, imo.