Ryans' log - page 16. | Bitcointalksearch.org

Schickeria

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Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on September 04, 2014, 07:02:27 PM

The triangle that I posted yesterday turned out to be the B wave of the 2 instead of the iv of 1.

This C of 2 could have one more wave to it, possibly breaking 500 (with an actual target around $498.45), but it should find some fairly strong resistance around $500. Invalidation of this short term wave 2 is at $514.98.

The over-all picture is still quite Bearish at the moment. We are in one of those situations again, where a Bullish count would require many extensions higher to even consider a Bullish impulse. This rise still appears to be corrective to the larger downtrend.

So I see you had a similar count (*cheer*), ignoring if my correction-waves had any validility. But now iv entered range of i and this makes this count invalid, not? Or did we have a failed wave v?

BitcoinNewbie15

sr. member

Activity: 574

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Bitcoin isn't a bubble. It's the pin!

Quote from: EuroTrash on September 05, 2014, 07:55:32 AM

Quote from: BitcoinNewbie15 on September 04, 2014, 10:59:32 PM

Hey man, im a real noob lol. So i dont understand anything you posted haha... But what do you thing the long term btc price is? bull or bear?

Ryan posted links for people to start learning. So go ahead and try putting some effort of your own as opposed to being spoonfed. Otherwise you're as good to anyone else as noise is.

....

Schickeria

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Activity: 84

Merit: 10

To be uninfluenced, I intentionally didn't look up here for any count of the current wave and made my own for some practice.

(edited 2 minutes later Angry

)

EuroTrash

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Activity: 728

Merit: 500

Quote from: BitcoinNewbie15 on September 04, 2014, 10:59:32 PM

Hey man, im a real noob lol. So i dont understand anything you posted haha... But what do you thing the long term btc price is? bull or bear?

Ryan posted links for people to start learning. So go ahead and try putting some effort of your own as opposed to being spoonfed. Otherwise you're as good to anyone else as noise is.

BitcoinNewbie15

sr. member

Activity: 574

Merit: 296

Bitcoin isn't a bubble. It's the pin!

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on September 04, 2014, 08:58:34 PM

Quote from: twiifm on September 04, 2014, 08:08:33 PM

Man you are pretty good at analysis. Do you trade anything aside from BTC?

Thanks! I try

Bitcoin popped my cherry, but it quickly grew outwards from here. I trade stocks and a little bit of FOREX, and I buy physical PM's when the time is right. Silver @$15 is my heavy buy price (I'm in the US so no CFD allowed here Sad

)

Quote from: montreal on September 04, 2014, 08:41:05 PM

thank you for the continuing analysis

No problem! I enjoy it

Hey man, im a real noob lol. So i dont understand anything you posted haha... But what do you thing the long term btc price is? bull or bear?

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1009

Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: twiifm on September 04, 2014, 08:08:33 PM

Man you are pretty good at analysis. Do you trade anything aside from BTC?

Thanks! I try

Bitcoin popped my cherry, but it quickly grew outwards from here. I trade stocks and a little bit of FOREX, and I buy physical PM's when the time is right. Silver @$15 is my heavy buy price (I'm in the US so no CFD allowed here Sad

)

Quote from: montreal on September 04, 2014, 08:41:05 PM

thank you for the continuing analysis

No problem! I enjoy it

montreal

full member

Activity: 328

Merit: 100

thank you for the continuing analysis

twiifm

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Activity: 784

Merit: 500

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on September 04, 2014, 07:02:27 PM

Indeed my initial count was the better count. The target was hit but it looks like a iii of C of 2 right now.

The triangle that I posted yesterday turned out to be the B wave of the 2 instead of the iv of 1.

This C of 2 could have one more wave to it, possibly breaking 500 (with an actual target around $498.45), but it should find some fairly strong resistance around $500. Invalidation of this short term wave 2 is at $514.98.

The over-all picture is still quite Bearish at the moment. We are in one of those situations again, where a Bullish count would require many extensions higher to even consider a Bullish impulse. This rise still appears to be corrective to the larger downtrend.

Man you are pretty good at analysis. Do you trade anything aside from BTC?

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1009

Legen -wait for it- dary

Indeed my initial count was the better count. The target was hit but it looks like a iii of C of 2 right now.

The triangle that I posted yesterday turned out to be the B wave of the 2 instead of the iv of 1.

This C of 2 could have one more wave to it, possibly breaking 500 (with an actual target around $498.45), but it should find some fairly strong resistance around $500. Invalidation of this short term wave 2 is at $514.98.

The over-all picture is still quite Bearish at the moment. We are in one of those situations again, where a Bullish count would require many extensions higher to even consider a Bullish impulse. This rise still appears to be corrective to the larger downtrend.

h3speros

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Activity: 189

Merit: 100

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on September 04, 2014, 12:03:53 PM

Quote from: h3speros on September 04, 2014, 11:18:53 AM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on September 01, 2014, 06:32:43 PM

Quick update because I has ribs on the fire Cool

For a bit there I was a little torn as to whether or nor we were still in the iv or if the 1 was complete with a short v. The EWO hinted toward the iv so the lower target remains and I've added the next target to look for. The wave-2 target is in the red box. I'm going to try this out when I post the same chart during the progress of a cycle. Red targets will be the new or next target to look for.

This drop will complete the 1 as shown by the divergence in the EWO. Without a huge spike and subsequent wall to suppress the price lower, the divergence will lock in and we will get our rise back to the $490's.

Good luck!

seems like this count was more valid after all?

Yep! The triangle chart was just another option

I will get an update out in a little while with some new targets

thanks =)

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1009

Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: h3speros on September 04, 2014, 11:18:53 AM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on September 01, 2014, 06:32:43 PM

Quick update because I has ribs on the fire Cool

For a bit there I was a little torn as to whether or nor we were still in the iv or if the 1 was complete with a short v. The EWO hinted toward the iv so the lower target remains and I've added the next target to look for. The wave-2 target is in the red box. I'm going to try this out when I post the same chart during the progress of a cycle. Red targets will be the new or next target to look for.

This drop will complete the 1 as shown by the divergence in the EWO. Without a huge spike and subsequent wall to suppress the price lower, the divergence will lock in and we will get our rise back to the $490's.

Good luck!

seems like this count was more valid after all?

Yep! The triangle chart was just another option

I will get an update out in a little while with some new targets

h3speros

full member

Activity: 189

Merit: 100

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on September 01, 2014, 06:32:43 PM

Quick update because I has ribs on the fire Cool

For a bit there I was a little torn as to whether or nor we were still in the iv or if the 1 was complete with a short v. The EWO hinted toward the iv so the lower target remains and I've added the next target to look for. The wave-2 target is in the red box. I'm going to try this out when I post the same chart during the progress of a cycle. Red targets will be the new or next target to look for.

This drop will complete the 1 as shown by the divergence in the EWO. Without a huge spike and subsequent wall to suppress the price lower, the divergence will lock in and we will get our rise back to the $490's.

Good luck!

seems like this count was more valid after all?

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1009

Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: XCASH on September 03, 2014, 06:24:14 PM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on September 03, 2014, 05:41:03 PM

Quote from: XCASH on September 03, 2014, 05:31:08 PM

Do you think it could continue sideways for another week or two?

Not likely! I give it another day or two at the most but it will come back to these prices for a few days.

I'm completely new to EW, so I cannot understand the technical details of the discussion yet.

Do you think bitcoin's price will go up or down in another day or two?

If you take the chart from my update a few posts ago, the path would be something like this

This thread isn't meant to be trading advice, but more of a tutorial with visual aids as we progress through counts.
The chart above may be the correct count, but the price won't necessarily follow the red line exactly, but the targets are given to show the general direction and price to look for. These targets are based on typical Fibonacci relationships to the waves preceding the target. This is not guaranteed, but it has a very good success rate

XCASH

legendary

Activity: 929

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Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on September 03, 2014, 05:41:03 PM

Quote from: XCASH on September 03, 2014, 05:31:08 PM

Do you think it could continue sideways for another week or two?

Not likely! I give it another day or two at the most but it will come back to these prices for a few days.

I'm completely new to EW, so I cannot understand the technical details of the discussion yet.

Do you think bitcoin's price will go up or down in another day or two?

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1009

Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: Schickeria on September 03, 2014, 09:58:02 AM

Furthermore:

Is this valid? (likely not, but DON'T LAUGH! Cheesy

)

First, I wouldn't laugh... It's not an easy thing to pick up in a couple of days.
Secondly, you need to keep the price scale in the screen shot. This helps others to identify the idea you are trying to convey and allows everyone to see the relative movements a little easier.

Your count is not valid because the 3 would end up being the shortest wave. This is not allowed. One other thing is that you wouldn't normally assume an ending diagonal as the count because these are relatively rare and usually only noticeable after they are well established. Instead, if you have overlapping waves in the direction of the larger trend, count them as nested waves (aka extensions), see the red count that I replied back to you earlier. It also appears that your 3 is only 3 waves. 3 wave moves are corrective.

Don't get discouraged! It takes time to learn EW. Just keep counting and ask anytime you get stuck. I will keep this thread running for a while, so don't worry about that, and I will critique your counts any time you want me to.

Quote from: XCASH on September 03, 2014, 05:31:08 PM

Do you think it could continue sideways for another week or two?

Not likely! I give it another day or two at the most but it will come back to these prices for a few days.

XCASH

legendary

Activity: 929

Merit: 1000

Do you think it could continue sideways for another week or two?

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1009

Legen -wait for it- dary

Just got to my computer and this price action over the last two days feels a lot more like sideways as opposed to completing a weak wave-v followed by a weak 2. So I propose another possible count for this indecision we seem to be in.

This has a lower target for v and still has us going to ~$490 for the corrective 2. I was talking about the EWO in my last update and how it swayed me to the side that we were still in the iv... Well it is still coiling around zero which now has me thinking we are still in the iv.

Schickeria

member

Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on September 03, 2014, 11:43:40 AM

Feel free to leave them since this is a learning thread Wink

I will comment more on your chart when I'm not using my phone to check it out. Until then, I can post the chart you requested.

Okay.

I'm captivated and the eBook I bought looks really good. I will study EWs (the basics) in the coming weeks/months. Keep this thread alive please. I surely have a lot questions and if you agree I will analyze a few of the past patterns, after my basic studies, and you could correct me where I'm wrong.

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1009

Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: h3speros on September 03, 2014, 02:01:20 AM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on September 02, 2014, 07:56:19 AM

Quote from: h3speros on September 02, 2014, 07:45:36 AM

If I have understood correctly we don't have to go any lower to complete the 1, we could also start to go up to 2 from here?

That's what I see! 490 is likely and 500 will be heavy resistance

now we are stuck in between these walls, how this will change things? we have bigger bounce to +500 or deeper breakout to the downside? can we still be in the process of completing 1?

The walls have no real bearing on the waves. For now, everything will continue forward with the same target.

Quote from: Schickeria on September 03, 2014, 09:58:02 AM

Hey Ryan! After studying your linked articles a bit, I ordered some additional lecture. This topic very complex, but also very interesting!

Could you do me a favour, and show me only the mayor waves since 2013 to get a better perspective over the total picture? I tried it without success.

Meaning this time frame:

Furthermore:

Is this valid? (likely not, but DON'T LAUGH! Cheesy

)

I will delete the images later to keep the thread clean.

Feel free to leave them since this is a learning thread Wink

I will comment more on your chart when I'm not using my phone to check it out. Until then, I can post the chart you requested.

The red is my current count. The black is an alternate count that is only confirmed a few years from now when we have a few more big bubbles, OR if we break below the April '13 high of $266

Schickeria

member

Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Hey Ryan! After studying your linked articles a bit, I ordered some additional lecture. This topic is very complex, but also very interesting!

Could you do me a favour, and show me only the mayor waves since 2013 to get a better perspective over the total picture? I tried it without success.

Meaning this time frame:

Furthermore:

Is this valid? (likely not, but DON'T LAUGH! Cheesy

)

I will delete the images later to keep the thread clean.

Topic: Ryans' log - page 16. (Read 50746 times)