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Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 19. (Read 192889 times)

dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 28, 2013, 12:54:01 AM
#1251
Quote
Total of 91 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-27 09:51pm (up to block 233511)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   135290 |       3 (0.00002) |  133155 |    2132 |    1705.38 |    3843.00 |   159.25 |  -2137.62 | 225.345
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    12304 |       0 (0.00000) |   11738 |     566 |     168.82 |       0.43 |    22.84 |    168.39 |   0.257
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    12838 |       2 (0.00016) |   12340 |     496 |     182.33 |     320.24 |    17.49 |   -137.90 | 175.634
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    24966 |       5 (0.00020) |   24437 |     524 |     599.81 |     433.85 |    10.17 |    165.95 |  72.332
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    24319 |       4 (0.00017) |   23834 |     481 |     864.60 |     566.57 |    22.18 |    298.02 |  65.530
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    30065 |      13 (0.00044) |   29613 |     439 |    1658.32 |    1830.91 |     1.51 |   -172.59 | 110.408
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    30586 |      35 (0.00116) |   30032 |     519 |    2187.20 |    1740.40 |   116.97 |    446.80 |  79.572
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    21977 |      40 (0.00186) |   21426 |     511 |    2414.50 |    1573.08 |    48.56 |    841.42 |  65.151
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    27096 |     116 (0.00435) |   26561 |     419 |    6055.71 |    8661.91 |    13.29 |  -2606.20 | 143.037
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    39424 |     311 (0.00805) |   38337 |     776 |    8448.87 |    6947.97 |    10.28 |   1500.89 |  82.236
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   144518 |    2216 (0.01540) |  141673 |     629 |   42870.24 |   37184.77 |     2.50 |   5685.47 |  86.738
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    26603 |     603 (0.02300) |   25609 |     391 |    7996.59 |    8581.87 |    15.21 |   -585.28 | 107.319
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    93974 |    2878 (0.03076) |   90672 |     424 |   43468.64 |   38747.67 |     9.46 |   4720.96 |  89.139
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    31589 |    1437 (0.04623) |   29648 |     504 |    9871.72 |   10668.30 |    25.45 |   -796.57 | 108.069
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    38949 |    2383 (0.06184) |   36149 |     417 |    7853.09 |    7646.09 |    31.44 |    207.00 |  97.364
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    55262 |    5025 (0.09182) |   49703 |     534 |   17115.08 |   18660.21 |     7.60 |  -1545.13 | 109.028
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   208519 |   25514 (0.12271) |  182399 |     606 |  100669.25 |   99921.10 |   100.85 |    748.15 |  99.257
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   121537 |   22192 (0.18358) |   98695 |     650 |  179795.61 |  181372.59 |  3315.30 |  -1576.97 | 100.877
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   292290 |   71118 (0.24392) |  220444 |     728 |  378994.14 |  365197.85 |  2323.01 |  13796.28 |  96.360
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   286660 |  105069 (0.36740) |  180913 |     678 |  595172.84 |  586355.33 |  1013.62 |   8817.50 |  98.518
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1218813 |  593954 (0.48809) |  622936 |    1923 |  916057.04 |  897775.15 |  2926.01 |  18281.88 |  98.004
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   696327 |  347095 (0.49962) |  347629 |    1603 |  696815.76 |  678881.34 |  6523.03 |  17934.41 |  97.426
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   403947 |  296298 (0.73510) |  106773 |     876 |  311392.68 |  303965.13 |  6172.82 |   7427.54 |  97.615
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    92055 |   72571 (0.79405) |   18822 |     662 |   65657.61 |   64108.57 |  1188.03 |   1549.03 |  97.641
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    85456 |   72635 (0.85746) |   12074 |     747 |   83323.95 |   82550.23 |   401.15 |    773.72 |  99.071
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   135078 |  122956 (0.91606) |   11267 |     855 |   77261.55 |   76127.33 |     1.81 |   1134.21 |  98.532
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    22358 |   20222 (0.97866) |     441 |    1695 |   25054.41 |   24634.03 |   241.09 |    420.38 |  98.322
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4189970 | 1709390           | 2460089 |   20491 |  842893.51 |  828146.12 |   314.85 |  14747.38 |  98.250
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   122830 |   55305           |   67231 |     294 | 2740762.34 | 2680149.91 | 24406.21 |  60612.42 |  97.788
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4312800 | 1764695           | 2527320 |   20785 | 3583655.85 | 3508296.04 | 24721.06 |  75359.81 |  97.897
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      75359.81055711 BTC (2.103%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3540.67137500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71819.13918211 BTC (2.004%)
Pending Liabilities:            0.00000000 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71819.13918211 BTC (2.004%)
Profit This Month:           3976.21261449 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13985671  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7898740  (56.5%)
Blockchain MB:   6110.9  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3261.2  (53.4%)



dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 28, 2013, 12:51:55 AM
#1250
Quote from: dogie on April 27, 2013, 11:53:48 PM
So we're saying that the developers have earned themselves a cool paper $10m in a year?

>>> 71840 * 130
9339200

Well, a lot of the profit was made when bitcoins were cheaper.  If they cashed out into dollars they would have got significantly less.  And 13% of the shares were sold to the public, but for more than they have paid out in dividends.  And at the current exchange rate it's closer to $9m than $10m.

But yeah.

The report's a little late today; it's being generated now.  I had to go into town to have my dog euthanized.  Sad



Benji.  RIP.
dogie
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1185
dogiecoin.com
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 27, 2013, 11:53:48 PM
#1249
So we're saying that the developers have earned themselves a cool paper $10m in a year?
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 26, 2013, 04:45:59 PM
#1248
Quote
Total of 58 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-26 01:43pm (up to block 233302)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   134673 |       3 (0.00002) |  132549 |    2121 |    1694.31 |    3842.95 |   159.10 |  -2148.63 | 226.814
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    12286 |       0 (0.00000) |   11720 |     566 |     168.59 |       0.43 |    22.84 |    168.16 |   0.257
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    12820 |       2 (0.00016) |   12322 |     496 |     182.14 |     320.24 |    17.49 |   -138.09 | 175.817
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    24916 |       5 (0.00020) |   24388 |     523 |     598.71 |     433.84 |    10.17 |    164.86 |  72.464
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    24280 |       4 (0.00017) |   23796 |     480 |     864.07 |     566.57 |    22.18 |    297.49 |  65.570
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    30012 |      13 (0.00044) |   29565 |     434 |    1657.37 |    1830.90 |     1.50 |   -173.52 | 110.470
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    30507 |      35 (0.00117) |   29954 |     518 |    2184.54 |    1740.38 |   116.97 |    444.16 |  79.668
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    21945 |      40 (0.00187) |   21394 |     511 |    2410.96 |    1573.06 |    48.56 |    837.90 |  65.246
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    27060 |     116 (0.00435) |   26525 |     419 |    6051.88 |    8661.89 |    13.29 |  -2610.00 | 143.127
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    39339 |     311 (0.00806) |   38255 |     773 |    8443.97 |    6947.94 |    10.27 |   1496.02 |  82.283
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   143776 |    2210 (0.01544) |  140943 |     623 |   42846.24 |   37180.11 |     2.47 |   5666.12 |  86.776
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    26562 |     603 (0.02304) |   25570 |     389 |    7995.94 |    8581.86 |    15.20 |   -585.92 | 107.328
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    93436 |    2863 (0.03078) |   90149 |     424 |   43457.88 |   38739.94 |     9.46 |   4717.94 |  89.144
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    31525 |    1435 (0.04625) |   29591 |     499 |    9869.00 |   10667.86 |    25.44 |   -798.85 | 108.095
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    38846 |    2376 (0.06183) |   36053 |     417 |    7848.19 |    7642.55 |    31.44 |    205.63 |  97.380
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    54902 |    4989 (0.09176) |   49382 |     531 |   17103.73 |   18633.15 |     7.59 |  -1529.42 | 108.942
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   207555 |   25388 (0.12268) |  181562 |     605 |  100625.90 |   99873.21 |   100.85 |    752.69 |  99.252
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   120899 |   22079 (0.18361) |   98173 |     647 |  179761.94 |  181335.03 |  3315.28 |  -1573.08 | 100.875
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   291328 |   70907 (0.24400) |  219697 |     724 |  378764.95 |  364983.29 |  2323.00 |  13781.66 |  96.361
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   285783 |  104748 (0.36740) |  180357 |     678 |  595028.75 |  586211.08 |  1013.62 |   8817.67 |  98.518
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1215758 |  592479 (0.48810) |  621365 |    1914 |  915580.26 |  897260.97 |  2925.97 |  18319.29 |  97.999
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   693724 |  345835 (0.49966) |  346302 |    1587 |  695976.56 |  678034.52 |  6522.99 |  17942.04 |  97.422
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   402143 |  294960 (0.73507) |  106310 |     873 |  311141.43 |  303721.25 |  6172.81 |   7420.17 |  97.615
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    91736 |   72320 (0.79407) |   18755 |     661 |   65514.89 |   63960.48 |  1188.03 |   1554.41 |  97.627
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    84715 |   72007 (0.85750) |   11966 |     742 |   83134.63 |   82362.21 |   401.13 |    772.41 |  99.071
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   134474 |  122419 (0.91612) |   11209 |     846 |   77022.21 |   75878.97 |     1.79 |   1143.23 |  98.516
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    22263 |   20141 (0.97862) |     440 |    1682 |   25027.77 |   24607.37 |   241.08 |    420.39 |  98.320
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4174513 | 1703026           | 2451098 |   20389 |  840900.62 |  826207.90 |   314.42 |  14692.72 |  98.253
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   122750 |   55262           |   67194 |     294 | 2740056.31 | 2679384.28 | 24406.21 |  60672.02 |  97.786
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4297263 | 1758288           | 2518292 |   20683 | 3580956.94 | 3505592.18 | 24720.64 |  75364.75 |  97.895
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      75364.75614492 BTC (2.105%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3524.39877500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71840.35736992 BTC (2.006%)
Pending Liabilities:            0.00000000 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71840.35736992 BTC (2.006%)
Profit This Month:           3997.43080230 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13923606  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7870557  (56.5%)
Blockchain MB:   6081.9  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3249.3  (53.4%)



dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 25, 2013, 05:18:41 PM
#1247
Quote
Total of 64 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-25 02:18pm (up to block 233134)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   133913 |       3 (0.00002) |  131805 |    2105 |    1679.21 |    3842.87 |   159.07 |  -2163.66 | 228.850
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    12264 |       0 (0.00000) |   11699 |     565 |     167.92 |       0.42 |    22.84 |    167.49 |   0.256
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    12778 |       2 (0.00016) |   12285 |     491 |     181.27 |     320.23 |    14.98 |   -138.96 | 176.659
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    24891 |       5 (0.00021) |   24364 |     522 |     598.39 |     433.84 |    10.16 |    164.54 |  72.502
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    24192 |       4 (0.00017) |   23708 |     480 |     859.87 |     566.55 |    22.18 |    293.32 |  65.888
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    29895 |      13 (0.00044) |   29451 |     431 |    1656.00 |    1830.90 |     1.50 |   -174.90 | 110.562
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    30432 |      35 (0.00117) |   29879 |     518 |    2169.84 |    1740.31 |   116.97 |    429.52 |  80.205
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    21912 |      40 (0.00187) |   21362 |     510 |    2407.15 |    1573.04 |    48.55 |    834.11 |  65.349
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    27041 |     116 (0.00436) |   26506 |     419 |    6048.14 |    8661.87 |    13.29 |  -2613.72 | 143.215
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    39295 |     311 (0.00807) |   38213 |     771 |    8436.63 |    6947.91 |    10.26 |   1488.71 |  82.354
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   143184 |    2192 (0.01538) |  140369 |     623 |   42804.63 |   37123.57 |     2.47 |   5681.06 |  86.728
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    26518 |     601 (0.02300) |   25528 |     389 |    7995.18 |    8580.58 |    15.20 |   -585.39 | 107.322
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    92920 |    2853 (0.03084) |   89647 |     420 |   43444.85 |   38734.76 |     9.45 |   4710.08 |  89.158
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    31483 |    1433 (0.04625) |   29551 |     499 |    9867.44 |   10667.43 |    25.44 |   -799.98 | 108.107
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    38638 |    2367 (0.06193) |   35855 |     416 |    7838.63 |    7620.08 |    31.44 |    218.55 |  97.212
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    54776 |    4982 (0.09184) |   49263 |     531 |   17091.79 |   18628.40 |     7.59 |  -1536.61 | 108.990
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   206610 |   25272 (0.12268) |  180734 |     604 |  100576.38 |   99833.58 |   100.84 |    742.79 |  99.261
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   120217 |   21943 (0.18351) |   97629 |     645 |  179744.65 |  181317.11 |  3315.27 |  -1572.45 | 100.875
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   290418 |   70680 (0.24398) |  219017 |     721 |  378673.52 |  364879.96 |  2322.99 |  13793.56 |  96.357
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   284364 |  104228 (0.36740) |  179461 |     675 |  594801.09 |  585908.63 |  1013.60 |   8892.45 |  98.505
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1213347 |  591310 (0.48810) |  620138 |    1899 |  915267.63 |  896943.12 |  2925.90 |  18324.51 |  97.998
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   691542 |  344713 (0.49961) |  345255 |    1574 |  693325.71 |  675777.55 |  6522.91 |  17548.15 |  97.469
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   400803 |  293976 (0.73507) |  105955 |     872 |  310963.34 |  303551.71 |  6172.80 |   7411.63 |  97.617
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    91307 |   71982 (0.79409) |   18665 |     660 |   65478.69 |   63926.66 |  1188.03 |   1552.03 |  97.630
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    84369 |   71703 (0.85741) |   11924 |     742 |   83088.55 |   82313.73 |   401.13 |    774.81 |  99.067
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   133771 |  121792 (0.91622) |   11137 |     842 |   76928.56 |   75789.14 |     1.78 |   1139.41 |  98.519
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    22210 |   20101 (0.97867) |     438 |    1671 |   25025.27 |   24604.98 |   241.07 |    420.29 |  98.321
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4160425 | 1697436           | 2442688 |   20301 |  839386.91 |  824770.46 |   311.63 |  14616.45 |  98.259
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   122665 |   55221           |   67150 |     294 | 2737733.54 | 2677348.59 | 24406.21 |  60384.95 |  97.794
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4283090 | 1752657           | 2509838 |   20595 | 3577120.45 | 3502119.05 | 24717.84 |  75001.40 |  97.903
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      75001.40634868 BTC (2.097%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3509.53697500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71491.86937368 BTC (1.999%)
Pending Liabilities:            0.00000000 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71491.86937368 BTC (1.999%)
Profit This Month:           3648.94280606 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13870645  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7845042  (56.6%)
Blockchain MB:   6057.1  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3238.6  (53.5%)



dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 24, 2013, 06:24:43 PM
#1246
Quote
Total of 185 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-24 03:22pm (up to block 232973)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   133023 |       3 (0.00002) |  130930 |    2090 |    1664.11 |    3842.80 |   159.05 |  -2178.69 | 230.922
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    12106 |       0 (0.00000) |   11542 |     564 |     166.16 |       0.42 |    22.58 |    165.74 |   0.253
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    12600 |       2 (0.00017) |   12107 |     491 |     178.93 |     320.22 |    14.98 |   -141.29 | 178.962
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    24849 |       5 (0.00021) |   24324 |     520 |     597.80 |     433.84 |    10.16 |    163.96 |  72.573
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    24143 |       4 (0.00017) |   23660 |     479 |     859.08 |     566.55 |    22.17 |    292.53 |  65.948
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    29850 |      13 (0.00044) |   29406 |     431 |    1655.14 |    1830.89 |     1.50 |   -175.75 | 110.619
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    30361 |      35 (0.00117) |   29808 |     518 |    2168.63 |    1740.30 |   116.97 |    428.33 |  80.249
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    21892 |      40 (0.00187) |   21344 |     508 |    2406.12 |    1573.03 |    48.54 |    833.08 |  65.377
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    27014 |     116 (0.00436) |   26480 |     418 |    6047.20 |    8661.87 |    13.29 |  -2614.66 | 143.238
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    39212 |     310 (0.00806) |   38134 |     768 |    8433.04 |    6946.64 |    10.25 |   1486.39 |  82.374
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   142572 |    2177 (0.01534) |  139778 |     617 |   42759.82 |   37046.91 |     2.45 |   5712.91 |  86.640
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    26470 |     599 (0.02297) |   25484 |     387 |    7993.37 |    8579.29 |    15.19 |   -585.92 | 107.330
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    92474 |    2836 (0.03081) |   89220 |     418 |   43434.21 |   38704.90 |     9.45 |   4729.31 |  89.112
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    31381 |    1430 (0.04630) |   29454 |     497 |    9861.84 |   10660.79 |    25.43 |   -798.94 | 108.101
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    38222 |    2347 (0.06208) |   35459 |     416 |    7820.41 |    7608.95 |    31.44 |    211.45 |  97.296
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    54486 |    4958 (0.09189) |   48998 |     530 |   17073.79 |   18609.88 |     7.58 |  -1536.09 | 108.997
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   206075 |   25208 (0.12268) |  180264 |     603 |  100547.37 |   99806.40 |   100.84 |    740.97 |  99.263
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   119571 |   21815 (0.18343) |   97113 |     643 |  179715.14 |  181286.11 |  3315.27 |  -1570.97 | 100.874
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   288934 |   70299 (0.24391) |  217918 |     717 |  378573.07 |  364767.43 |  2322.97 |  13805.64 |  96.353
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   282845 |  103684 (0.36745) |  178486 |     675 |  594696.48 |  585804.28 |  1013.60 |   8892.19 |  98.505
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1211094 |  590229 (0.48811) |  618973 |    1892 |  914861.06 |  896514.85 |  2925.86 |  18346.20 |  97.995
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   689286 |  343602 (0.49963) |  344116 |    1568 |  691810.04 |  674249.48 |  6522.89 |  17560.56 |  97.462
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   399561 |  293085 (0.73512) |  105606 |     870 |  310776.52 |  303354.91 |  6172.80 |   7421.60 |  97.612
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    90902 |   71666 (0.79414) |   18577 |     659 |   65431.15 |   63880.01 |  1188.02 |   1551.13 |  97.629
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    83820 |   71223 (0.85727) |   11858 |     739 |   82981.47 |   82212.57 |   401.12 |    768.90 |  99.073
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   132845 |  120947 (0.91623) |   11058 |     840 |   76832.97 |   75701.97 |     1.77 |   1130.99 |  98.528
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    22140 |   20047 (0.97891) |     432 |    1661 |   25022.35 |   24602.20 |   241.05 |    420.15 |  98.321
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4145141 | 1691500           | 2433416 |   20225 |  837970.71 |  823342.72 |   311.14 |  14627.99 |  98.254
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   122587 |   55180           |   67113 |     294 | 2736396.67 | 2675964.89 | 24406.21 |  60431.77 |  97.792
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4267728 | 1746680           | 2500529 |   20519 | 3574367.38 | 3499307.61 | 24717.35 |  75059.77 |  97.900
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      75059.77182286 BTC (2.100%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3493.41917500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71566.35264786 BTC (2.002%)
Pending Liabilities:            0.00000000 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71566.35264786 BTC (2.002%)
Profit This Month:           3723.42608024 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13811106  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7816889  (56.6%)
Blockchain MB:   6029.5  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3226.8  (53.5%)



dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 23, 2013, 05:15:15 PM
#1245
Quote from: petrescuerz on April 23, 2013, 05:02:34 PM
Quote from: dooglus on April 14, 2013, 03:21:26 PM
Quote from: MPOE-PR on April 14, 2013, 06:10:14 AM
I am the gal in the pic, yes.

Everybody knows there are no girls on the internet.

Hmm, imaginary sex, doing your own dishes, cooking for yourself.. sounds dreadful! Maybe you ought to find a 'real' girlfriend!

Messed up the quoting.  Must be a girl?

Quote
Total of 46 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-23 02:06pm (up to block 232800)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   131968 |       3 (0.00002) |  129891 |    2074 |    1648.82 |    3842.72 |   159.02 |  -2193.90 | 233.059
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    11726 |       0 (0.00000) |   11163 |     563 |     162.25 |       0.40 |    22.58 |    161.84 |   0.247
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    11976 |       2 (0.00017) |   11483 |     491 |     172.23 |     320.19 |    14.98 |   -147.96 | 185.909
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    24792 |       5 (0.00021) |   24273 |     514 |     597.18 |     433.83 |    10.16 |    163.34 |  72.647
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    23930 |       4 (0.00017) |   23449 |     477 |     856.80 |     566.54 |    22.17 |    290.26 |  66.123
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    29779 |      13 (0.00044) |   29337 |     429 |    1654.34 |    1830.89 |     1.49 |   -176.54 | 110.672
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    30319 |      35 (0.00117) |   29767 |     517 |    2168.05 |    1740.30 |   116.96 |    427.74 |  80.270
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    21836 |      40 (0.00188) |   21292 |     504 |    2405.29 |    1573.03 |    48.53 |    832.25 |  65.399
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    26962 |     116 (0.00437) |   26429 |     417 |    6045.68 |    8661.86 |    13.29 |  -2616.17 | 143.273
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    39130 |     310 (0.00808) |   38054 |     766 |    8431.70 |    6946.63 |    10.25 |   1485.06 |  82.387
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   141853 |    2167 (0.01534) |  139070 |     616 |   42745.32 |   37036.85 |     2.44 |   5708.46 |  86.645
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    26414 |     598 (0.02297) |   25431 |     385 |    7992.61 |    8578.86 |    15.18 |   -586.25 | 107.335
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    91787 |    2804 (0.03069) |   88565 |     418 |   43423.36 |   38689.04 |     9.45 |   4734.31 |  89.097
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    31315 |    1428 (0.04633) |   29392 |     495 |    9860.84 |   10660.33 |    25.42 |   -799.49 | 108.108
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    38099 |    2339 (0.06207) |   35345 |     415 |    7816.50 |    7607.22 |    31.43 |    209.28 |  97.323
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    53998 |    4915 (0.09192) |   48554 |     529 |   17043.69 |   18591.20 |     7.58 |  -1547.51 | 109.080
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   205085 |   25072 (0.12261) |  179410 |     603 |  100512.77 |   99766.48 |   100.84 |    746.29 |  99.258
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   118629 |   21651 (0.18350) |   96337 |     641 |  179645.05 |  181221.13 |  3315.25 |  -1576.07 | 100.877
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   286990 |   69846 (0.24398) |  216430 |     714 |  378379.53 |  364541.20 |  2322.95 |  13838.33 |  96.343
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   280982 |  103019 (0.36752) |  177289 |     674 |  594499.30 |  585642.94 |  1013.60 |   8856.36 |  98.510
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1208063 |  588750 (0.48811) |  617430 |    1883 |  913292.76 |  895057.12 |  2925.84 |  18235.64 |  98.003
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   687197 |  342565 (0.49963) |  343075 |    1557 |  691206.80 |  673663.09 |  6522.86 |  17543.71 |  97.462
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   397890 |  291865 (0.73513) |  105160 |     865 |  310590.43 |  303163.85 |  6172.78 |   7426.57 |  97.609
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    90541 |   71381 (0.79415) |   18502 |     658 |   65370.25 |   63818.71 |  1188.02 |   1551.54 |  97.627
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    82939 |   70474 (0.85729) |   11732 |     733 |   82887.18 |   82118.22 |   401.10 |    768.95 |  99.072
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   132007 |  120188 (0.91627) |   10983 |     836 |   76696.47 |   75579.43 |     1.76 |   1117.03 |  98.544
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    22069 |   19984 (0.97894) |     430 |    1655 |   25015.71 |   24595.81 |   241.04 |    419.89 |  98.321
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4125753 | 1684422           | 2421196 |   20135 |  836230.93 |  821650.20 |   310.88 |  14580.72 |  98.256
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   122523 |   55152           |   67077 |     294 | 2734890.09 | 2674597.78 | 24406.21 |  60292.30 |  97.795
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4248276 | 1739574           | 2488273 |   20429 | 3571121.02 | 3496247.99 | 24717.10 |  74873.03 |  97.903
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      74873.03229194 BTC (2.097%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3473.02637500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71400.00591694 BTC (1.999%)
Pending Liabilities:            0.00000000 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71400.00591694 BTC (1.999%)
Profit This Month:           3557.07934932 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13742147  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7782157  (56.6%)
Blockchain MB:   5995.6  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3212.3  (53.6%)



petrescuerz
member
Activity: 102
Merit: 10
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 23, 2013, 05:02:34 PM
#1244
Quote from: dooglus on April 14, 2013, 03:21:26 PM
Quote from: MPOE-PR on April 14, 2013, 06:10:14 AM
I am the gal in the pic, yes.

Everybody knows there are no girls on the internet.

Hmm, imaginary sex, doing your own dishes, cooking for yourself.. sounds dreadful! Maybe you ought to find a 'real' girlfriend!
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 22, 2013, 10:05:54 PM
#1243
Quote
Total of 71 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-22 07:06pm (up to block 232672)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   131364 |       3 (0.00002) |  129305 |    2056 |    1641.67 |    3842.69 |   156.49 |  -2201.01 | 234.071
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    11452 |       0 (0.00000) |   10889 |     563 |     159.49 |       0.38 |    22.58 |    159.10 |   0.243
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    11716 |       2 (0.00018) |   11225 |     489 |     169.50 |     320.17 |    14.97 |   -150.67 | 188.896
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    24725 |       5 (0.00021) |   24208 |     512 |     596.52 |     433.83 |    10.15 |    162.69 |  72.727
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    23881 |       4 (0.00017) |   23400 |     477 |     855.81 |     566.53 |    22.17 |    289.27 |  66.199
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    29717 |      13 (0.00044) |   29275 |     429 |    1653.56 |    1830.89 |     1.49 |   -177.32 | 110.724
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    30278 |      35 (0.00118) |   29727 |     516 |    2167.63 |    1740.30 |   116.96 |    427.33 |  80.286
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    21787 |      40 (0.00188) |   21245 |     502 |    2404.81 |    1573.03 |    48.53 |    831.77 |  65.412
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    26920 |     116 (0.00438) |   26387 |     417 |    6045.07 |    8661.86 |    13.29 |  -2616.78 | 143.288
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    39068 |     310 (0.00809) |   37995 |     763 |    8430.97 |    6946.63 |    10.24 |   1484.33 |  82.394
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   141385 |    2161 (0.01535) |  138610 |     614 |   42735.73 |   37030.54 |     2.43 |   5705.18 |  86.650
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    26377 |     598 (0.02301) |   25394 |     385 |    7991.88 |    8578.86 |    15.18 |   -586.97 | 107.345
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    91285 |    2794 (0.03075) |   88073 |     418 |   43412.66 |   38682.21 |     9.45 |   4730.45 |  89.104
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    31273 |    1427 (0.04636) |   29351 |     495 |    9859.65 |   10660.01 |    25.42 |   -800.35 | 108.118
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    38008 |    2333 (0.06206) |   35260 |     415 |    7814.45 |    7605.32 |    31.43 |    209.13 |  97.324
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    53607 |    4876 (0.09186) |   48204 |     527 |   17025.83 |   18568.26 |     7.58 |  -1542.43 | 109.059
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   204693 |   25022 (0.12260) |  179070 |     601 |  100502.43 |   99757.36 |   100.83 |    745.07 |  99.259
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   117959 |   21534 (0.18354) |   95789 |     636 |  179606.73 |  181196.99 |  3315.22 |  -1590.25 | 100.885
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   286114 |   69641 (0.24401) |  215764 |     709 |  378223.38 |  364101.55 |  2322.93 |  14121.83 |  96.266
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   279890 |  102634 (0.36758) |  176583 |     673 |  594337.02 |  585418.00 |  1013.59 |   8919.01 |  98.499
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1206226 |  587843 (0.48810) |  616504 |    1879 |  912803.80 |  894726.16 |  2925.82 |  18077.64 |  98.020
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   685806 |  341877 (0.49963) |  342382 |    1547 |  690495.88 |  673216.77 |  6522.81 |  17279.10 |  97.498
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   396373 |  290765 (0.73516) |  104747 |     861 |  310484.67 |  303060.01 |  6172.76 |   7424.65 |  97.609
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    90374 |   71249 (0.79414) |   18469 |     656 |   65340.78 |   63785.86 |  1188.02 |   1554.91 |  97.620
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    82306 |   69921 (0.85709) |   11659 |     726 |   82765.23 |   81991.71 |   401.07 |    773.51 |  99.065
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   131320 |  119547 (0.91615) |   10941 |     832 |   76583.68 |   75466.01 |     1.74 |   1117.66 |  98.541
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    22027 |   19950 (0.97890) |     430 |    1647 |   25011.36 |   24591.44 |   241.02 |    419.91 |  98.321
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4113461 | 1679577           | 2413833 |   20051 |  835130.70 |  820612.78 |   308.09 |  14517.92 |  98.262
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   122470 |   55123           |   67053 |     294 | 2733989.59 | 2673740.71 | 24406.21 |  60248.88 |  97.796
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4235931 | 1734700           | 2480886 |   20345 | 3569120.30 | 3494353.49 | 24714.30 |  74766.80 |  97.905
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      74766.80766379 BTC (2.095%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3460.08257500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71306.72508879 BTC (1.998%)
Pending Liabilities:            0.00000000 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71306.72508879 BTC (1.998%)
Profit This Month:           3463.79852117 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13694638  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7759924  (56.7%)
Blockchain MB:   5974.2  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3203.0  (53.6%)



vongesell
newbie
Activity: 46
Merit: 0
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 22, 2013, 06:09:29 PM
#1242
Bets per day. Based dooglus' semi daily reports in this thread. Data was smoothed (bezier) to take into account spikes and jumps as reporting timing is not always equally delimited.

https://i.imgur.com/I1lwIiK.png

https://i.imgur.com/DYK48Fg.png
bitpop
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 1060
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 22, 2013, 05:02:55 PM
#1241
The old site was 100x better
ar9
sr. member
Activity: 352
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 22, 2013, 04:58:19 PM
#1240
Despite the absolutely travesty that is their front-end website, it is nice to see S.DICE pulling a profit this month.
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 22, 2013, 02:06:52 AM
#1239
Quote from: Stephen Gornick on April 21, 2013, 07:05:12 PM
We are either at or within a day or two of coming up on the one year anniversary of SatoshiDICE.  I see the forum post for it is April 24th, 2012 but the list of secrets goes back to April 17th, 2012.

When was the first real wager on SatoshiDICE placed?

I don't know how to tell what wagers are real, and what are test bets, but the first bet was in block 176627 (2012-04-21 17:02:44) and a bunch more were in block 176629 (2012-04-21 17:28:41).

So I'd say we just passed the first anniversary.

This: https://blockchain.info/tx-index/4228396/1 appears to be the first ever bet.
Stephen Gornick
legendary
Activity: 2506
Merit: 1010
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 21, 2013, 07:05:12 PM
#1238
We are either at or within a day or two of coming up on the one year anniversary of SatoshiDICE.  I see the forum post for it is April 24th, 2012 but the list of secrets goes back to April 17th, 2012.

When was the first real wager on SatoshiDICE placed?
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 21, 2013, 05:41:35 PM
#1237
Quote
Total of 27 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-21 02:34pm (up to block 232481)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   131081 |       3 (0.00002) |  129050 |    2028 |    1637.29 |    3842.66 |   150.90 |  -2205.37 | 234.696
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    11392 |       0 (0.00000) |   10830 |     562 |     158.84 |       0.38 |    22.57 |    158.45 |   0.242
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    11557 |       2 (0.00018) |   11068 |     487 |     167.87 |     320.17 |    14.97 |   -152.29 | 190.716
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    24660 |       5 (0.00021) |   24144 |     511 |     595.84 |     433.83 |    10.15 |    162.00 |  72.810
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    23773 |       4 (0.00017) |   23292 |     477 |     854.72 |     566.53 |    22.17 |    288.19 |  66.282
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    29629 |      13 (0.00045) |   29190 |     426 |    1652.52 |    1830.88 |     1.49 |   -178.35 | 110.793
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    30181 |      35 (0.00118) |   29630 |     516 |    2166.61 |    1740.29 |   116.96 |    426.31 |  80.323
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    21668 |      39 (0.00184) |   21131 |     498 |    2403.63 |    1568.01 |    48.51 |    835.62 |  65.235
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    26851 |     116 (0.00439) |   26319 |     416 |    6044.23 |    8661.85 |    13.29 |  -2617.62 | 143.308
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    38986 |     310 (0.00811) |   37916 |     760 |    8429.44 |    6946.62 |    10.23 |   1482.81 |  82.409
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   141119 |    2158 (0.01536) |  138350 |     611 |   42727.39 |   37028.39 |     2.42 |   5699.00 |  86.662
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    26316 |     597 (0.02302) |   25335 |     384 |    7990.82 |    8578.43 |    15.17 |   -587.60 | 107.354
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    90921 |    2777 (0.03068) |   87728 |     416 |   43396.53 |   38666.65 |     9.44 |   4729.88 |  89.101
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    31217 |    1422 (0.04628) |   29304 |     491 |    9858.41 |   10658.93 |    25.41 |   -800.52 | 108.120
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    37958 |    2332 (0.06212) |   35211 |     415 |    7813.76 |    7605.15 |    31.43 |    208.60 |  97.330
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    53147 |    4836 (0.09190) |   47786 |     525 |   17013.98 |   18557.85 |     7.57 |  -1543.87 | 109.074
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   204503 |   25008 (0.12264) |  178900 |     595 |  100493.93 |   99754.72 |   100.81 |    739.21 |  99.264
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   117375 |   21430 (0.18356) |   95316 |     629 |  179327.69 |  180959.83 |  3315.18 |  -1632.14 | 100.910
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   285281 |   69430 (0.24398) |  215145 |     706 |  378032.78 |  363899.26 |  2322.92 |  14133.52 |  96.261
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   278567 |  102155 (0.36760) |  175741 |     671 |  593885.44 |  585207.53 |  1013.58 |   8677.90 |  98.539
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1203998 |  586721 (0.48807) |  615399 |    1878 |  912321.67 |  894172.35 |  2925.81 |  18149.31 |  98.011
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   684357 |  341150 (0.49962) |  341674 |    1533 |  689729.04 |  672539.28 |  6522.77 |  17189.75 |  97.508
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   394888 |  289662 (0.73512) |  104372 |     854 |  310345.40 |  302909.60 |  6172.74 |   7435.80 |  97.604
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    89897 |   70859 (0.79401) |   18383 |     655 |   65272.22 |   63720.53 |  1188.01 |   1551.68 |  97.623
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    81642 |   69334 (0.85683) |   11585 |     723 |   82629.55 |   81855.91 |   401.07 |    773.64 |  99.064
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   130766 |  119042 (0.91612) |   10899 |     825 |   76509.99 |   75391.49 |     1.71 |   1118.49 |  98.538
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    21923 |   19870 (0.97896) |     427 |    1626 |   24995.24 |   24576.28 |   240.98 |    418.95 |  98.324
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4101269 | 1674213           | 2407132 |   19924 |  833883.99 |  819395.90 |   302.18 |  14488.09 |  98.263
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   122384 |   55097           |   66993 |     294 | 2732570.95 | 2672597.63 | 24406.21 |  59973.31 |  97.805
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4223653 | 1729310           | 2474125 |   20218 | 3566454.94 | 3491993.54 | 24708.40 |  74461.40 |  97.912
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      74461.40675118 BTC (2.088%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3447.26097500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71014.14577618 BTC (1.991%)
Pending Liabilities:            0.00000000 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71014.14577618 BTC (1.991%)
Profit This Month:           3171.21920856 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13636278  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7736582  (56.7%)
Blockchain MB:   5947.8  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3193.3  (53.7%)



vongesell
newbie
Activity: 46
Merit: 0
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 21, 2013, 03:20:03 AM
#1236
Quote from: dooglus on April 21, 2013, 02:59:02 AM
Quote from: vongesell on April 21, 2013, 02:52:39 AM
Still, this leaves me to wonder about why other forms of utility and services in bitcoin have not displaced satoshidice more.

Probably because you only buy reddit gold once a year, whereas your satoshidice bets cause two transactions each.  I mean the impact on the blockchain per customer is much higher for satoshidice than it is for pretty much any other company.

Agreed. Just comparing to the 2012 percentage and drop from June around 68% share to 55% two months later i would have guessed to see a similar change more recently due to new bitcoin services. I do not remember what changed their share so drastically then (june 2012+) vs now. Anyway, for numerologists and other religions it's interesting perhaps to watch SDice share as a measure of speculation movements vs utility.


Quote from: vongesell on April 21, 2013, 03:20:03 AM
So I'd be expecting a negative correlation between number of SatoshiDice tx and USDBTC price. That recent dip in the percentage of SatoshiDice tx's in the blockchain is rather suggestive.

I agree and kind of take this assumption for granted. Though perhaps it would be nice to graph. Always nice to GRAPH! Smiley
organofcorti
donator
Activity: 2058
Merit: 1007
Poor impulse control.
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 21, 2013, 03:05:18 AM
#1235
Quote from: vongesell on April 21, 2013, 02:52:39 AM
Quote from: organofcorti on April 21, 2013, 02:42:25 AM
Nice work!

Now, you just need to plot the USD BTC price (at the dates corresponding to your data points) against each data point, and you'll be able to see what sort correlation exists before you go messing about with linear models.

Why would it be important to add USD BTC price to the graph? Do you mean I need to take into account the change in total number of bets placed due to increased stakes caused by BTCUSD? I also graphed the total number of bets and there is a slight hump beginning of year but now back to the usual constant slope. Sure, more $$ a play but same number of TX's. Implying that the Satoshidice TX load has not changed much. Yet despite this one would expect it's share of the blockchain to decrease. Potentially, and based on the first graph, its share is indeed decreasing, very slowly, for the past couple months. Still, this leaves me to wonder about why other forms of utility and services in bitcoin have not displaced satoshidice more.

Sorry, I thought you were implying something in your original post that you weren't - is the change in the percentage of SatoshiDice Tx related to the USDBTC price? I would expect that, since there's a minimum amount of btc that can be bet, as the exchange rate increases the minimum btc bet becomes much higher in terms of fiat and might start to price some players out of the market.

So I'd be expecting a negative correlation between number of SatoshiDice tx and USDBTC price. That recent dip in the percentage of SatoshiDice tx's in the blockchain is rather suggestive.

You could check this, not by adding the price to your chart, but by scatter-plotting the tx as a function of price - the y axis the daily change in number of tx, the x axis the daily change in price. I expect you'd need to do it on a log-log axis , or plot the logs of the daily tx change and daily price change.

I'd do it but I'm in the middle of something else right now. So .... Wink
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 21, 2013, 02:59:02 AM
#1234
Quote from: vongesell on April 21, 2013, 02:52:39 AM
Still, this leaves me to wonder about why other forms of utility and services in bitcoin have not displaced satoshidice more.

Probably because you only buy reddit gold once a year, whereas your satoshidice bets cause two transactions each.  I mean the impact on the blockchain per customer is much higher for satoshidice than it is for pretty much any other company.
vongesell
newbie
Activity: 46
Merit: 0
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 21, 2013, 02:52:39 AM
#1233
Quote from: organofcorti on April 21, 2013, 02:42:25 AM
Nice work!

Now, you just need to plot the USD BTC price (at the dates corresponding to your data points) against each data point, and you'll be able to see what sort correlation exists before you go messing about with linear models.

Why would it be important to add USD BTC price to the graph? Do you mean I need to take into account the change in total number of bets placed due to increased stakes caused by BTCUSD? I also graphed the total number of bets and there is a slight hump beginning of year but now back to the usual constant slope. Sure, more $$ a play but same number of TX's. Implying that the Satoshidice TX load has not changed much. Yet despite this one would expect it's share of the blockchain to decrease. Potentially, and based on the first graph, its share is indeed decreasing, very slowly, for the past couple months. Still, this leaves me to wonder about why other forms of utility and services in bitcoin have not displaced satoshidice more.
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 21, 2013, 02:49:34 AM
#1232
Quote from: vongesell on April 21, 2013, 02:27:58 AM
Similar but percentage of MB rather than Tx:

Similar, but smoother (recalculating the percentage, not using the rounded figure from the reports):



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