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Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 18. (Read 192914 times)

RationalSpeculator
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 29, 2013, 11:03:58 PM
#1262
Quote from: thoughtfan on April 29, 2013, 05:13:13 PM
Quote from: RationalSpeculator on April 29, 2013, 02:49:23 PM
Quote from: Zaih on April 28, 2013, 06:55:36 AM
Real profit is certainly really taking over the expected profit..

And yep, this is definitely going to be the lowest month for SD in terms of EP.

Yes, seeing expected profit go down is bad news.

I'm thinking it might be due to the crazy rallies in btc values this month. I can imagine many gamblers switching from sdice to btc gambling.

If that's true then expected profit should be up again next month as the mania in btc fades away.
Repeat something enough times RS and you come to believe it to be true.  Search hard enough in the forum and I'm sure you'll find more excuses to express your gloom and doom about what you're so convinced is going to happen to bitcoin in the weeks ahead Wink

I'm being persistent Wink

But wouldn't that be a good explanation why sdice's expected profit went down so much?

I hope so, because if this continues, the value of sdice will be cut in half.
thoughtfan
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 506
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 29, 2013, 05:13:13 PM
#1261
Quote from: RationalSpeculator on April 29, 2013, 02:49:23 PM
Quote from: Zaih on April 28, 2013, 06:55:36 AM
Real profit is certainly really taking over the expected profit..

And yep, this is definitely going to be the lowest month for SD in terms of EP.

Yes, seeing expected profit go down is bad news.

I'm thinking it might be due to the crazy rallies in btc values this month. I can imagine many gamblers switching from sdice to btc gambling.

If that's true then expected profit should be up again next month as the mania in btc fades away.
Repeat something enough times RS and you come to believe it to be true.  Search hard enough in the forum and I'm sure you'll find more excuses to express your gloom and doom about what you're so convinced is going to happen to bitcoin in the weeks ahead Wink
RationalSpeculator
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 29, 2013, 02:49:23 PM
#1260
Quote from: Zaih on April 28, 2013, 06:55:36 AM
Real profit is certainly really taking over the expected profit..

And yep, this is definitely going to be the lowest month for SD in terms of EP.

Yes, seeing expected profit go down is bad news.

I'm thinking it might be due to the crazy rallies in btc values this month. I can imagine many gamblers switching from sdice to btc gambling.

If that's true then expected profit should be up again next month as the mania in btc fades away.
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 29, 2013, 02:19:23 PM
#1259
Quote
Total of 28 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-29 11:55am (up to block 233796)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   135947 |       3 (0.00002) |  133800 |    2144 |    1715.06 |    3843.05 |   159.28 |  -2127.99 | 224.077
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    12325 |       0 (0.00000) |   11759 |     566 |     169.04 |       0.43 |    22.84 |    168.61 |   0.257
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    12898 |       2 (0.00016) |   12400 |     496 |     183.38 |     320.24 |    17.49 |   -136.86 | 174.630
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    25087 |       5 (0.00020) |   24556 |     526 |     601.30 |     433.86 |    10.17 |    167.44 |  72.154
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    24371 |       5 (0.00021) |   23884 |     482 |     865.55 |     606.56 |    22.18 |    258.99 |  70.078
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    30145 |      13 (0.00044) |   29693 |     439 |    1659.48 |    1830.92 |     1.51 |   -171.43 | 110.330
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    30652 |      35 (0.00116) |   30097 |     520 |    2188.10 |    1740.40 |   116.98 |    447.70 |  79.539
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    22038 |      40 (0.00186) |   21486 |     512 |    2417.09 |    1573.09 |    48.56 |    844.00 |  65.082
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    27144 |     116 (0.00434) |   26609 |     419 |    6071.12 |    8661.99 |    13.29 |  -2590.87 | 142.675
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    39467 |     311 (0.00804) |   38376 |     780 |    8451.91 |    6947.98 |    10.30 |   1503.92 |  82.206
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   144884 |    2224 (0.01542) |  142027 |     633 |   42880.46 |   37192.75 |     2.51 |   5687.70 |  86.736
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    26628 |     605 (0.02306) |   25631 |     392 |    7996.99 |    8583.36 |    15.21 |   -586.36 | 107.332
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    94186 |    2884 (0.03076) |   90878 |     424 |   43472.34 |   38750.25 |     9.46 |   4722.08 |  89.138
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    31640 |    1439 (0.04622) |   29697 |     504 |    9872.71 |   10668.73 |    25.45 |   -796.01 | 108.063
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    39145 |    2400 (0.06197) |   36328 |     417 |    7865.12 |    7659.77 |    31.44 |    205.34 |  97.389
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    55524 |    5043 (0.09171) |   49943 |     538 |   17126.53 |   18666.07 |     7.62 |  -1539.54 | 108.989
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   209236 |   25601 (0.12271) |  183026 |     609 |  100705.20 |   99956.90 |   100.87 |    748.29 |  99.257
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   122211 |   22302 (0.18346) |   99259 |     650 |  179818.24 |  181388.16 |  3315.30 |  -1569.92 | 100.873
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   293199 |   71340 (0.24393) |  221126 |     733 |  379174.46 |  365438.94 |  2323.04 |  13735.51 |  96.378
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   287978 |  105569 (0.36746) |  181727 |     682 |  595578.46 |  586800.57 |  1013.64 |   8777.89 |  98.526
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1222555 |  595747 (0.48807) |  624875 |    1933 |  917056.60 |  898747.52 |  2926.06 |  18309.07 |  98.003
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   699232 |  348527 (0.49960) |  349087 |    1618 |  697613.12 |  679740.81 |  6523.09 |  17872.31 |  97.438
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   405582 |  297500 (0.73512) |  107198 |     884 |  311680.59 |  304256.77 |  6172.86 |   7423.81 |  97.618
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    92698 |   73083 (0.79410) |   18950 |     665 |   65765.00 |   64208.58 |  1188.05 |   1556.42 |  97.633
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    86351 |   73399 (0.85747) |   12200 |     752 |   83489.55 |   82721.38 |   401.18 |    768.17 |  99.080
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   135932 |  123715 (0.91595) |   11353 |     864 |   77710.55 |   76563.86 |     1.85 |   1146.68 |  98.524
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    22455 |   20306 (0.97860) |     444 |    1705 |   25064.43 |   24643.79 |   241.11 |    420.64 |  98.322
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4206500 | 1716794           | 2469113 |   20593 |  844859.32 |  830150.92 |   315.26 |  14708.40 |  98.259
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   123010 |   55420           |   67296 |     294 | 2742333.19 | 2681795.95 | 24406.21 |  60537.24 |  97.792
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4329510 | 1772214           | 2536409 |   20887 | 3587192.52 | 3511946.87 | 24721.47 |  75245.64 |  97.902
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      75245.64623690 BTC (2.098%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3558.15557500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71687.49066190 BTC (1.998%)
Pending Liabilities:            0.00000000 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71687.49066190 BTC (1.998%)
Profit This Month:           3844.56409428 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 14059370  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7930353  (56.4%)
Blockchain MB:   6146.8  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3274.4  (53.3%)



dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 28, 2013, 11:26:24 PM
#1258
Quote from: nimda on April 28, 2013, 03:37:12 PM
xkcd, relevant as always

I hadn't seen that xkcd before.

I've fixed the graph script so future graphs will show the date in that format.
bitpop
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 1060
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 28, 2013, 10:03:14 PM
#1257
Condolences
qxzn
hero member
Activity: 609
Merit: 506
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 28, 2013, 03:39:39 PM
#1256
Quote from: nimda on April 28, 2013, 03:37:12 PM
xkcd, relevant as always

beat me to it
nebulus
hero member
Activity: 490
Merit: 500
... it only gets better...
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 28, 2013, 03:38:34 PM
#1255
Quote from: nimda on April 28, 2013, 03:37:12 PM
xkcd, relevant as always

Amen for 8601!
nimda
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
0xFB0D8D1534241423
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 28, 2013, 03:37:12 PM
#1254
xkcd, relevant as always
furuknap
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
http://coin.furuknap.net/
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 28, 2013, 03:09:53 PM
#1253
Quote from: nebulus on April 28, 2013, 03:07:45 PM
The dates on your first plot (x-axis) are all January. Is this a mistake?

Yes, but it's yours :-) Outside the US, dates are usually formatted with day, month, year, rather than month, day, year.

.b

Edit: Didn't see your edit :-)
nebulus
hero member
Activity: 490
Merit: 500
... it only gets better...
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 28, 2013, 03:07:45 PM
#1252
The dates on your first plot (x-axis) are all January. Is this a mistake?

Edit: nvm, European formatting...

dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 28, 2013, 02:03:32 PM
#1251
Thanks for your kind messages.  I know this isn't really the place to be posting about such matters, but I was a little emotional.  Now back to business as usual:

Quote
Total of 31 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-28 12:01pm (up to block 233612)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   135453 |       3 (0.00002) |  133311 |    2139 |    1708.06 |    3843.02 |   159.27 |  -2134.96 | 224.993
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    12316 |       0 (0.00000) |   11750 |     566 |     168.95 |       0.43 |    22.84 |    168.51 |   0.257
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    12846 |       2 (0.00016) |   12348 |     496 |     182.50 |     320.24 |    17.49 |   -137.73 | 175.471
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    24976 |       5 (0.00020) |   24446 |     525 |     600.07 |     433.85 |    10.17 |    166.22 |  72.300
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    24339 |       4 (0.00017) |   23854 |     481 |     865.05 |     566.58 |    22.18 |    298.46 |  65.497
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    30095 |      13 (0.00044) |   29643 |     439 |    1658.93 |    1830.91 |     1.51 |   -171.98 | 110.367
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    30604 |      35 (0.00116) |   30049 |     520 |    2187.62 |    1740.40 |   116.98 |    447.21 |  79.557
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    21986 |      40 (0.00186) |   21435 |     511 |    2414.70 |    1573.08 |    48.56 |    841.62 |  65.146
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    27106 |     116 (0.00435) |   26571 |     419 |    6058.30 |    8661.92 |    13.29 |  -2603.62 | 142.976
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    39434 |     311 (0.00805) |   38345 |     778 |    8451.59 |    6947.98 |    10.29 |   1503.60 |  82.209
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   144637 |    2218 (0.01540) |  141789 |     630 |   42875.13 |   37186.07 |     2.50 |   5689.05 |  86.731
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    26612 |     604 (0.02304) |   25616 |     392 |    7996.76 |    8582.51 |    15.21 |   -585.74 | 107.325
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    94043 |    2879 (0.03075) |   90740 |     424 |   43469.94 |   38748.64 |     9.46 |   4721.30 |  89.139
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    31602 |    1437 (0.04621) |   29661 |     504 |    9871.96 |   10668.30 |    25.45 |   -796.34 | 108.067
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    39093 |    2394 (0.06190) |   36282 |     417 |    7863.00 |    7658.48 |    31.44 |    204.51 |  97.399
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    55376 |    5034 (0.09179) |   49806 |     536 |   17119.49 |   18662.68 |     7.61 |  -1543.18 | 109.014
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   208640 |   25527 (0.12271) |  182507 |     606 |  100675.23 |   99923.65 |   100.85 |    751.58 |  99.253
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   121720 |   22223 (0.18355) |   98847 |     650 |  179806.80 |  181377.01 |  3315.30 |  -1570.20 | 100.873
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   292594 |   71193 (0.24392) |  220673 |     728 |  379044.20 |  365285.99 |  2323.01 |  13758.21 |  96.370
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   287114 |  105244 (0.36743) |  181191 |     679 |  595210.86 |  586402.38 |  1013.63 |   8808.47 |  98.520
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1219940 |  594490 (0.48808) |  623526 |    1924 |  916651.61 |  898329.63 |  2926.02 |  18321.98 |  98.001
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   697250 |  347540 (0.49960) |  348103 |    1607 |  697093.13 |  679190.57 |  6523.05 |  17902.56 |  97.432
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   404545 |  296730 (0.73508) |  106938 |     877 |  311465.96 |  304040.02 |  6172.83 |   7425.93 |  97.616
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    92226 |   72708 (0.79408) |   18855 |     663 |   65710.02 |   64158.51 |  1188.04 |   1551.51 |  97.639
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    85685 |   72835 (0.85753) |   12101 |     749 |   83432.84 |   82665.64 |   401.17 |    767.19 |  99.080
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   135253 |  123110 (0.91604) |   11284 |     859 |   77308.99 |   76176.88 |     1.82 |   1132.11 |  98.536
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    22389 |   20250 (0.97869) |     441 |    1698 |   25056.43 |   24636.06 |   241.10 |    420.37 |  98.322
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4195006 | 1711619           | 2462864 |   20523 |  843506.43 |  828743.24 |   315.00 |  14763.18 |  98.250
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   122868 |   55326           |   67248 |     294 | 2741441.82 | 2680868.31 | 24406.21 |  60573.51 |  97.790
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4317874 | 1766945           | 2530112 |   20817 | 3584948.26 | 3509611.56 | 24721.21 |  75336.70 |  97.899
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      75336.70138588 BTC (2.101%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3545.98537500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71790.71601088 BTC (2.003%)
Pending Liabilities:            0.00000000 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71790.71601088 BTC (2.003%)
Profit This Month:           3947.78944326 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 14009064  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7908391  (56.5%)
Blockchain MB:   6122.4  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3265.3  (53.3%)



furuknap
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
http://coin.furuknap.net/
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 28, 2013, 08:48:25 AM
#1250
Quote from: dooglus on April 27, 2013, 11:51:55 PM
Benji.  RIP.

My deepest sympathies and condolances.

.b
Zaih
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 28, 2013, 06:55:36 AM
#1249
Real profit is certainly really taking over the expected profit..

And yep, this is definitely going to be the lowest month for SD in terms of EP.

Also really sorry to hear about Benji, Doog Sad
ColdHardMetal
hero member
Activity: 700
Merit: 500
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 28, 2013, 05:58:54 AM
#1248
Yeah, definitely sorry to hear that.
RationalSpeculator
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 28, 2013, 12:45:15 AM
#1247
Quote from: dooglus on April 27, 2013, 11:51:55 PM

The report's a little late today; it's being generated now.  I had to go into town to have my dog euthanized.  Sad

Benji.  RIP.

That must have been hard for you. I'm so sorry Sad

He looks really beautiful.

My deepest sympathies.
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 27, 2013, 11:54:01 PM
#1246
Quote
Total of 91 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-27 09:51pm (up to block 233511)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   135290 |       3 (0.00002) |  133155 |    2132 |    1705.38 |    3843.00 |   159.25 |  -2137.62 | 225.345
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    12304 |       0 (0.00000) |   11738 |     566 |     168.82 |       0.43 |    22.84 |    168.39 |   0.257
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    12838 |       2 (0.00016) |   12340 |     496 |     182.33 |     320.24 |    17.49 |   -137.90 | 175.634
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    24966 |       5 (0.00020) |   24437 |     524 |     599.81 |     433.85 |    10.17 |    165.95 |  72.332
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    24319 |       4 (0.00017) |   23834 |     481 |     864.60 |     566.57 |    22.18 |    298.02 |  65.530
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    30065 |      13 (0.00044) |   29613 |     439 |    1658.32 |    1830.91 |     1.51 |   -172.59 | 110.408
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    30586 |      35 (0.00116) |   30032 |     519 |    2187.20 |    1740.40 |   116.97 |    446.80 |  79.572
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    21977 |      40 (0.00186) |   21426 |     511 |    2414.50 |    1573.08 |    48.56 |    841.42 |  65.151
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    27096 |     116 (0.00435) |   26561 |     419 |    6055.71 |    8661.91 |    13.29 |  -2606.20 | 143.037
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    39424 |     311 (0.00805) |   38337 |     776 |    8448.87 |    6947.97 |    10.28 |   1500.89 |  82.236
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   144518 |    2216 (0.01540) |  141673 |     629 |   42870.24 |   37184.77 |     2.50 |   5685.47 |  86.738
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    26603 |     603 (0.02300) |   25609 |     391 |    7996.59 |    8581.87 |    15.21 |   -585.28 | 107.319
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    93974 |    2878 (0.03076) |   90672 |     424 |   43468.64 |   38747.67 |     9.46 |   4720.96 |  89.139
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    31589 |    1437 (0.04623) |   29648 |     504 |    9871.72 |   10668.30 |    25.45 |   -796.57 | 108.069
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    38949 |    2383 (0.06184) |   36149 |     417 |    7853.09 |    7646.09 |    31.44 |    207.00 |  97.364
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    55262 |    5025 (0.09182) |   49703 |     534 |   17115.08 |   18660.21 |     7.60 |  -1545.13 | 109.028
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   208519 |   25514 (0.12271) |  182399 |     606 |  100669.25 |   99921.10 |   100.85 |    748.15 |  99.257
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   121537 |   22192 (0.18358) |   98695 |     650 |  179795.61 |  181372.59 |  3315.30 |  -1576.97 | 100.877
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   292290 |   71118 (0.24392) |  220444 |     728 |  378994.14 |  365197.85 |  2323.01 |  13796.28 |  96.360
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   286660 |  105069 (0.36740) |  180913 |     678 |  595172.84 |  586355.33 |  1013.62 |   8817.50 |  98.518
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1218813 |  593954 (0.48809) |  622936 |    1923 |  916057.04 |  897775.15 |  2926.01 |  18281.88 |  98.004
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   696327 |  347095 (0.49962) |  347629 |    1603 |  696815.76 |  678881.34 |  6523.03 |  17934.41 |  97.426
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   403947 |  296298 (0.73510) |  106773 |     876 |  311392.68 |  303965.13 |  6172.82 |   7427.54 |  97.615
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    92055 |   72571 (0.79405) |   18822 |     662 |   65657.61 |   64108.57 |  1188.03 |   1549.03 |  97.641
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    85456 |   72635 (0.85746) |   12074 |     747 |   83323.95 |   82550.23 |   401.15 |    773.72 |  99.071
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   135078 |  122956 (0.91606) |   11267 |     855 |   77261.55 |   76127.33 |     1.81 |   1134.21 |  98.532
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    22358 |   20222 (0.97866) |     441 |    1695 |   25054.41 |   24634.03 |   241.09 |    420.38 |  98.322
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4189970 | 1709390           | 2460089 |   20491 |  842893.51 |  828146.12 |   314.85 |  14747.38 |  98.250
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   122830 |   55305           |   67231 |     294 | 2740762.34 | 2680149.91 | 24406.21 |  60612.42 |  97.788
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4312800 | 1764695           | 2527320 |   20785 | 3583655.85 | 3508296.04 | 24721.06 |  75359.81 |  97.897
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      75359.81055711 BTC (2.103%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3540.67137500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71819.13918211 BTC (2.004%)
Pending Liabilities:            0.00000000 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71819.13918211 BTC (2.004%)
Profit This Month:           3976.21261449 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13985671  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7898740  (56.5%)
Blockchain MB:   6110.9  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3261.2  (53.4%)



dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 27, 2013, 11:51:55 PM
#1245
Quote from: dogie on April 27, 2013, 10:53:48 PM
So we're saying that the developers have earned themselves a cool paper $10m in a year?

>>> 71840 * 130
9339200

Well, a lot of the profit was made when bitcoins were cheaper.  If they cashed out into dollars they would have got significantly less.  And 13% of the shares were sold to the public, but for more than they have paid out in dividends.  And at the current exchange rate it's closer to $9m than $10m.

But yeah.

The report's a little late today; it's being generated now.  I had to go into town to have my dog euthanized.  Sad



Benji.  RIP.
dogie
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1185
dogiecoin.com
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 27, 2013, 10:53:48 PM
#1244
So we're saying that the developers have earned themselves a cool paper $10m in a year?
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 26, 2013, 03:45:59 PM
#1243
Quote
Total of 58 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-26 01:43pm (up to block 233302)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   134673 |       3 (0.00002) |  132549 |    2121 |    1694.31 |    3842.95 |   159.10 |  -2148.63 | 226.814
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    12286 |       0 (0.00000) |   11720 |     566 |     168.59 |       0.43 |    22.84 |    168.16 |   0.257
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    12820 |       2 (0.00016) |   12322 |     496 |     182.14 |     320.24 |    17.49 |   -138.09 | 175.817
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    24916 |       5 (0.00020) |   24388 |     523 |     598.71 |     433.84 |    10.17 |    164.86 |  72.464
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    24280 |       4 (0.00017) |   23796 |     480 |     864.07 |     566.57 |    22.18 |    297.49 |  65.570
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    30012 |      13 (0.00044) |   29565 |     434 |    1657.37 |    1830.90 |     1.50 |   -173.52 | 110.470
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    30507 |      35 (0.00117) |   29954 |     518 |    2184.54 |    1740.38 |   116.97 |    444.16 |  79.668
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    21945 |      40 (0.00187) |   21394 |     511 |    2410.96 |    1573.06 |    48.56 |    837.90 |  65.246
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    27060 |     116 (0.00435) |   26525 |     419 |    6051.88 |    8661.89 |    13.29 |  -2610.00 | 143.127
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    39339 |     311 (0.00806) |   38255 |     773 |    8443.97 |    6947.94 |    10.27 |   1496.02 |  82.283
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   143776 |    2210 (0.01544) |  140943 |     623 |   42846.24 |   37180.11 |     2.47 |   5666.12 |  86.776
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    26562 |     603 (0.02304) |   25570 |     389 |    7995.94 |    8581.86 |    15.20 |   -585.92 | 107.328
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    93436 |    2863 (0.03078) |   90149 |     424 |   43457.88 |   38739.94 |     9.46 |   4717.94 |  89.144
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    31525 |    1435 (0.04625) |   29591 |     499 |    9869.00 |   10667.86 |    25.44 |   -798.85 | 108.095
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    38846 |    2376 (0.06183) |   36053 |     417 |    7848.19 |    7642.55 |    31.44 |    205.63 |  97.380
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    54902 |    4989 (0.09176) |   49382 |     531 |   17103.73 |   18633.15 |     7.59 |  -1529.42 | 108.942
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   207555 |   25388 (0.12268) |  181562 |     605 |  100625.90 |   99873.21 |   100.85 |    752.69 |  99.252
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   120899 |   22079 (0.18361) |   98173 |     647 |  179761.94 |  181335.03 |  3315.28 |  -1573.08 | 100.875
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   291328 |   70907 (0.24400) |  219697 |     724 |  378764.95 |  364983.29 |  2323.00 |  13781.66 |  96.361
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   285783 |  104748 (0.36740) |  180357 |     678 |  595028.75 |  586211.08 |  1013.62 |   8817.67 |  98.518
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1215758 |  592479 (0.48810) |  621365 |    1914 |  915580.26 |  897260.97 |  2925.97 |  18319.29 |  97.999
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   693724 |  345835 (0.49966) |  346302 |    1587 |  695976.56 |  678034.52 |  6522.99 |  17942.04 |  97.422
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   402143 |  294960 (0.73507) |  106310 |     873 |  311141.43 |  303721.25 |  6172.81 |   7420.17 |  97.615
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    91736 |   72320 (0.79407) |   18755 |     661 |   65514.89 |   63960.48 |  1188.03 |   1554.41 |  97.627
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    84715 |   72007 (0.85750) |   11966 |     742 |   83134.63 |   82362.21 |   401.13 |    772.41 |  99.071
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   134474 |  122419 (0.91612) |   11209 |     846 |   77022.21 |   75878.97 |     1.79 |   1143.23 |  98.516
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    22263 |   20141 (0.97862) |     440 |    1682 |   25027.77 |   24607.37 |   241.08 |    420.39 |  98.320
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4174513 | 1703026           | 2451098 |   20389 |  840900.62 |  826207.90 |   314.42 |  14692.72 |  98.253
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   122750 |   55262           |   67194 |     294 | 2740056.31 | 2679384.28 | 24406.21 |  60672.02 |  97.786
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4297263 | 1758288           | 2518292 |   20683 | 3580956.94 | 3505592.18 | 24720.64 |  75364.75 |  97.895
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      75364.75614492 BTC (2.105%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3524.39877500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71840.35736992 BTC (2.006%)
Pending Liabilities:            0.00000000 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71840.35736992 BTC (2.006%)
Profit This Month:           3997.43080230 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13923606  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7870557  (56.5%)
Blockchain MB:   6081.9  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3249.3  (53.4%)



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