Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 20.

organofcorti

donator

Activity: 2058

Merit: 1007

Poor impulse control.

Nice work!

Now, you just need to plot the USD BTC price (at the dates corresponding to your data points) against each data point, and you'll be able to see what sort correlation exists before you go messing about with linear models.

vongesell

newbie

Activity: 46

Merit: 0

Similar but percentage of MB rather than Tx:

Starts 2012-Nov-12, ends 2013-Apr-20
https://i.imgur.com/qlOithT.png

curl 'https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=printpage;topic=80312.0' | awk -v RS='

vongesell

newbie

Activity: 46

Merit: 0

Quote from: organofcorti on April 21, 2013, 12:37:13 AM

It's not hard to check - dooglus already publishes that information daily.

So you just have to go back through the thread, collect the "Blockchain Tx" and "SatoshiDice Tx" figures indexed by the date posted and you'll have your answer.

I must admit I'm intrigued to see what it will be, so please post the result as soon as you're done.

Good point!

curl 'https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=printpage;topic=80312.0' | awk -v RS='

Or graphed:

curl 'https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=printpage;topic=80312.0' | awk -v RS='

Starts 2012-Jun-11, ends 2013-Apr-20
https://i.imgur.com/SZD6e9r.png

organofcorti

donator

Activity: 2058

Merit: 1007

Poor impulse control.

Quote from: vongesell on April 20, 2013, 11:58:22 PM

Is there any significant change in the percentage of bitcoin traffic overall that satoshidice accounts for? Increase, decrease? There was a time no too long ago that SD was the topic concerning blockchain space. Since then a lot of new services utilising bitcoin have come onto the chain. Simplistic thought: Either the utility of bitcoin has not really increased or the number of SD players has increased on par. A simple way to gauge increase utility or lack there of. Thoughts?

It's not hard to check - dooglus already publishes that information daily.

Quote from: dooglus on April 20, 2013, 05:20:21 PM

Quote

Total of 38 bets unaccounted for.
[.....]
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13592456 : SatoshiDice Tx: 7718607 (56.8%)
Blockchain MB: 5926.9 : SatoshiDice MB: 3185.8 (53.8%)

So you just have to go back through the thread, collect the "Blockchain Tx" and "SatoshiDice Tx" figures indexed by the date posted and you'll have your answer.

I must admit I'm intrigued to see what it will be, so please post the result as soon as you're done.

vongesell

newbie

Activity: 46

Merit: 0

Is there any significant change in the percentage of bitcoin traffic overall that satoshidice accounts for? Increase, decrease? There was a time no too long ago that SD was the topic concerning blockchain space. Since then a lot of new services utilising bitcoin have come onto the chain. Simplistic thought: Either the utility of bitcoin has not really increased or the number of SD players has increased on par. A simple way to gauge increase utility or lack there of. Thoughts?

ColdHardMetal

hero member

Activity: 700

Merit: 500

Quote from: Fizzgig on April 20, 2013, 11:22:16 PM

Quote from: dooglus on April 20, 2013, 05:24:26 PM

Quote from: Fizzgig on April 20, 2013, 10:27:18 AM

Part of the problem is the spectre of 87 million shares out there ready to be sold at any time.

There have always been 100 million shares. Erik selling 3 million on behalf of a friend doesn't change anything. Each share you own still gets one 100-millionth of the monthly profits each month.

So wait are there 13 million shares owned by the public or 10 million? I was under the impression there are now 13 million, an increase of 30% total shares outstanding.

There have always been 100 million shares owned. 10 million of those were initially released to the public with the remainder held by insiders. A few months (more or less, don't remember exactly) a further 3 million shares were released to the public, making 13 million in the hands of the public and 87 million for insiders. Nothings really changed other than who holds what.

Fizzgig

full member

Activity: 154

Merit: 100

Quote from: dooglus on April 20, 2013, 05:24:26 PM

Quote from: Fizzgig on April 20, 2013, 10:27:18 AM

Part of the problem is the spectre of 87 million shares out there ready to be sold at any time.

There have always been 100 million shares. Erik selling 3 million on behalf of a friend doesn't change anything. Each share you own still gets one 100-millionth of the monthly profits each month.

So wait are there 13 million shares owned by the public or 10 million? I was under the impression there are now 13 million, an increase of 30% total shares outstanding.

Zaih

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 500

Looking at I think is to be the slowest month in history of SD as far as expected profit goes..

Then again, Bitcoins are more expensive now.. But still..

FTWbitcoinFTW

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

http://mpex.co/?mpsic=S.DICE

Quote

The representatives of SatoshiDice further warrant that they will never sell more than half the total shares.

Still 37%, no more

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: Fizzgig on April 20, 2013, 10:27:18 AM

Part of the problem is the spectre of 87 million shares out there ready to be sold at any time.

There have always been 100 million shares. Erik selling 3 million on behalf of a friend doesn't change anything. Each share you own still gets one 100-millionth of the monthly profits each month.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote

Total of 38 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-20 03:11pm (up to block 232308)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 130538 | 3 (0.00002) | 128512 | 2023 | 1628.30 | 3842.62 | 150.88 | -2214.31 | 235.989
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 11384 | 0 (0.00000) | 10823 | 561 | 158.75 | 0.38 | 22.57 | 158.36 | 0.241
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 11532 | 2 (0.00018) | 11043 | 487 | 167.51 | 320.16 | 14.97 | -152.65 | 191.127
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 24634 | 5 (0.00021) | 24119 | 510 | 595.56 | 433.83 | 10.14 | 161.73 | 72.844
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 23761 | 4 (0.00017) | 23281 | 476 | 854.32 | 566.52 | 22.16 | 287.79 | 66.313
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 29607 | 13 (0.00045) | 29170 | 424 | 1652.13 | 1830.88 | 1.48 | -178.75 | 110.819
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 30145 | 35 (0.00118) | 29596 | 514 | 2166.21 | 1740.29 | 116.96 | 425.91 | 80.338
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 21599 | 39 (0.00185) | 21069 | 491 | 2402.64 | 1568.00 | 48.48 | 834.64 | 65.262
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 26834 | 116 (0.00439) | 26303 | 415 | 6044.06 | 8661.85 | 13.28 | -2617.79 | 143.312
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 38930 | 309 (0.00809) | 37863 | 758 | 8428.53 | 6945.37 | 10.22 | 1483.15 | 82.403
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 140741 | 2148 (0.01533) | 137985 | 608 | 42700.62 | 37001.56 | 2.42 | 5699.06 | 86.653
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 26292 | 597 (0.02304) | 25312 | 383 | 7990.43 | 8578.43 | 15.16 | -587.99 | 107.359
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 90492 | 2761 (0.03065) | 87316 | 415 | 43365.22 | 38604.96 | 9.43 | 4760.25 | 89.023
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 31121 | 1421 (0.04638) | 29214 | 486 | 9856.28 | 10658.39 | 25.40 | -802.10 | 108.138
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 37878 | 2326 (0.06208) | 35139 | 413 | 7811.16 | 7601.72 | 31.42 | 209.43 | 97.319
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 52961 | 4818 (0.09188) | 47619 | 524 | 17001.24 | 18544.56 | 7.57 | -1543.31 | 109.078
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 204203 | 24980 (0.12268) | 178634 | 589 | 100465.61 | 99734.93 | 100.77 | 730.67 | 99.273
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 116874 | 21347 (0.18364) | 94899 | 628 | 179261.14 | 180886.59 | 3315.18 | -1625.45 | 100.907
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 284802 | 69319 (0.24400) | 214779 | 704 | 377999.65 | 363868.41 | 2322.91 | 14131.23 | 96.262
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 277650 | 101809 (0.36757) | 175173 | 668 | 593769.38 | 585088.38 | 1013.57 | 8680.99 | 98.538
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1202184 | 585821 (0.48806) | 614491 | 1872 | 911942.80 | 893725.21 | 2925.78 | 18217.59 | 98.002
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 683002 | 340508 (0.49966) | 340972 | 1522 | 689488.47 | 672340.55 | 6522.74 | 17147.91 | 97.513
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 393686 | 288756 (0.73505) | 104082 | 848 | 310182.08 | 302730.60 | 6172.70 | 7451.48 | 97.598
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 89636 | 70672 (0.79422) | 18311 | 653 | 65251.37 | 63703.41 | 1188.00 | 1547.95 | 97.628
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 81283 | 69029 (0.85682) | 11535 | 719 | 82566.92 | 81793.94 | 401.05 | 772.97 | 99.064
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 130320 | 118646 (0.91616) | 10858 | 816 | 76431.33 | 75312.60 | 1.64 | 1118.73 | 98.536
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 21851 | 19815 (0.97900) | 425 | 1611 | 24990.29 | 24571.33 | 240.97 | 418.95 | 98.324
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 4091583 | 1670222 | 2401537 | 19824 | 832822.06 | 818365.91 | 301.79 | 14456.14 | 98.264
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 122357 | 55077 | 66986 | 294 | 2732350.05 | 2672289.68 | 24406.21 | 60060.36 | 97.802
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 4213940 | 1725299 | 2468523 | 20118 | 3565172.11 | 3490655.60 | 24708.00 | 74516.50 | 97.910
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 74516.50981398 BTC (2.090%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 3437.10857500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 71079.40123898 BTC (1.994%)
Pending Liabilities: 0.00000000 BTC
Final SD Profit: 71079.40123898 BTC (1.994%)
Profit This Month: 3236.47467136 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13592456 : SatoshiDice Tx: 7718607 (56.8%)
Blockchain MB: 5926.9 : SatoshiDice MB: 3185.8 (53.8%)

Fizzgig

full member

Activity: 154

Merit: 100

Part of the problem is the spectre of 87 million shares out there ready to be sold at any time. Back when there was a healthy buy/sell market, 3 million shares were sold by SD (not offered, sold onto the market). So who's to know when all selling opportunity evaporates since it is unknown publicly how SD will act. This is akin to the blockchain randomly awarding 100k bitcoins to the winner of a block, it screws with markets when all information isn't given beforehand, and it would make sense to just keep tiering up, ipo at .0032, .0034, .0037, price rose to like .006, so why not put up:

1 million at .01
1 million at .011
...
1 million at .02

Now SD would have a plan to sell their next 10 million shares onto the market at a natural rate as long as they prove themselves, and they have always seemed pretty confident about what they are doing. It may have taken years but at least they didn't dry up the market. As it turned out, investors are stuck with their shares now, hoping their dividends are worth it.

RationalSpeculator

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!

Quote from: miscreanity on April 19, 2013, 03:08:25 PM

Quote from: Picklee on April 18, 2013, 09:32:05 PM

In the above example, the pool water is all the wealth in the Bitcoin system and the sponge is SD. The lake is the wealth in the USD economy. If Bitcoin and USD switch places, SD does not change - only its share of the overall economy does. So unless SD grows to maintain its proportion to the total amount of wealth in the system, the share price will decline relative to the metric - in our case, BTC.

Ask yourself whether a gambling site can comprise 10% of the Bitcoin economy for years when there are so many businesses jumping into the system.

A corollary of this is you shouldn't buy any bitcoin business shares. If bitcoin succeeds their BTC share price will almost certainly dive due to deflation. It might be soaring according to the USD yardstick, but you would have been better off just holding BTC. If bitcoin fails the shares will probably be worthless. Actually this isn't quite right; the bitcoin shares would be worth buying if their dividend rate makes up for the appreciation of the BTC, which probably means extraordinarily large.

You are right. I thought sdice would be a good protection against collapsing btc value, but that was not the case as the sdice shares did not go up when btc dropped drasticly. So when btc goes to the moon, you are screwed with sdice (or any company) as it just doesn't go up and instead tanks in btc value. And when btc collapses, the sdice valuation also does not go up to compensate so your losing too. The only time sdice has outperformed btc was when btc prices were trending trending sideways or slowly up, as was the case from the last half year of 2012. Let's hope we get that again as I'd like to see sdice regain some of it's btc value.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

The 'pending liabilities' line is showing 0 BTC until I can gain access to the site again. I hear that the domain has been renewed now, but I can't yet see the site.

Quote

Total of 196 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-19 06:46pm (up to block 232179)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 130194 | 3 (0.00002) | 128171 | 2020 | 1623.18 | 3842.59 | 150.87 | -2219.41 | 236.732
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 11370 | 0 (0.00000) | 10809 | 561 | 158.40 | 0.38 | 22.57 | 158.02 | 0.241
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 11525 | 2 (0.00018) | 11036 | 487 | 166.94 | 320.16 | 14.97 | -153.22 | 191.784
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 23302 | 5 (0.00022) | 22788 | 509 | 558.54 | 433.64 | 10.14 | 124.89 | 77.639
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 23602 | 4 (0.00017) | 23122 | 476 | 848.26 | 566.49 | 22.16 | 281.76 | 66.783
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 28720 | 13 (0.00046) | 28283 | 424 | 1607.61 | 1830.66 | 1.48 | -223.04 | 113.874
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 29599 | 35 (0.00120) | 29052 | 512 | 2130.00 | 1740.11 | 116.95 | 389.88 | 81.695
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 21559 | 39 (0.00185) | 21030 | 490 | 2401.96 | 1568.00 | 48.47 | 833.96 | 65.280
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 26811 | 116 (0.00439) | 26280 | 415 | 6043.60 | 8661.85 | 13.28 | -2618.25 | 143.323
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 38843 | 309 (0.00811) | 37780 | 754 | 8422.84 | 6945.34 | 10.21 | 1477.50 | 82.458
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 140054 | 2136 (0.01532) | 137313 | 605 | 42621.43 | 36925.58 | 2.41 | 5695.85 | 86.636
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 26249 | 597 (0.02308) | 25269 | 383 | 7985.52 | 8578.40 | 15.16 | -592.88 | 107.424
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 90030 | 2746 (0.03064) | 86870 | 414 | 43352.30 | 38588.12 | 9.42 | 4764.18 | 89.011
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 31033 | 1418 (0.04642) | 29129 | 486 | 9850.62 | 10656.83 | 25.40 | -806.21 | 108.184
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 37757 | 2320 (0.06212) | 35025 | 412 | 7804.29 | 7594.47 | 31.42 | 209.82 | 97.311
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 52830 | 4807 (0.09190) | 47500 | 523 | 16993.76 | 18531.24 | 7.56 | -1537.48 | 109.047
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 203994 | 24951 (0.12267) | 178456 | 587 | 100409.49 | 99724.37 | 100.76 | 685.11 | 99.318
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 116436 | 21273 (0.18369) | 94539 | 624 | 179182.73 | 180778.09 | 3315.17 | -1595.36 | 100.890
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 284403 | 69214 (0.24396) | 214492 | 697 | 377975.39 | 363843.64 | 2322.89 | 14131.75 | 96.261
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 277122 | 101595 (0.36749) | 174860 | 667 | 593706.87 | 584996.43 | 1013.56 | 8710.44 | 98.533
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1200638 | 585098 (0.48808) | 613670 | 1870 | 911688.27 | 893508.87 | 2925.78 | 18179.40 | 98.006
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 682197 | 340096 (0.49964) | 340589 | 1512 | 689328.09 | 672215.84 | 6522.71 | 17112.24 | 97.518
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 393106 | 288344 (0.73508) | 103918 | 844 | 310110.16 | 302653.90 | 6172.69 | 7456.26 | 97.596
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 89377 | 70468 (0.79421) | 18259 | 650 | 65201.17 | 63662.64 | 1188.00 | 1538.53 | 97.640
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 80923 | 68729 (0.85691) | 11477 | 717 | 82528.67 | 81756.53 | 401.05 | 772.14 | 99.064
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 129955 | 118322 (0.91618) | 10825 | 808 | 76379.31 | 75260.41 | 1.60 | 1118.89 | 98.535
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 21749 | 19726 (0.97896) | 424 | 1599 | 24983.53 | 24564.60 | 240.95 | 418.93 | 98.323
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 4081046 | 1667299 | 2393995 | 19752 | 831910.47 | 817629.02 | 301.55 | 14281.45 | 98.283
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 122332 | 55067 | 66971 | 294 | 2732152.60 | 2672120.27 | 24406.21 | 60032.32 | 97.803
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 4203378 | 1722366 | 2460966 | 20046 | 3564063.07 | 3489749.29 | 24707.77 | 74313.78 | 97.915
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 74313.78015794 BTC (2.085%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 3425.97257500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 70887.80758294 BTC (1.989%)
Pending Liabilities: 0.00000000 BTC
Final SD Profit: 70887.80758294 BTC (1.989%)
Profit This Month: 3044.88101532 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13553133 : SatoshiDice Tx: 7701306 (56.8%)
Blockchain MB: 5908.3 : SatoshiDice MB: 3178.0 (53.8%)

TimJBenham

sr. member

Activity: 280

Merit: 250

Quote from: miscreanity on April 19, 2013, 03:08:25 PM

In the above example, the pool water is all the wealth in the Bitcoin system and the sponge is SD. The lake is the wealth in the USD economy. If Bitcoin and USD switch places, SD does not change - only its share of the overall economy does. So unless SD grows to maintain its proportion to the total amount of wealth in the system, the share price will decline relative to the metric - in our case, BTC.

Ask yourself whether a gambling site can comprise 10% of the Bitcoin economy for years when there are so many businesses jumping into the system.

A corollary of this is you shouldn't buy any bitcoin business shares. If bitcoin succeeds their BTC share price will almost certainly dive due to deflation. It might be soaring according to the USD yardstick, but you would have been better off just holding BTC. If bitcoin fails the shares will probably be worthless. Actually this isn't quite right; the bitcoin shares would be worth buying if their dividend rate makes up for the appreciation of the BTC, which probably means extraordinarily large.

miscreanity

legendary

Activity: 1316

Merit: 1005

Quote from: Picklee on April 18, 2013, 09:32:05 PM

No, no... That's like saying "USD are denominated in EUR". (And let's be frank, we all know that USD is really denominated in CNY!)

APPL is denominated in USD.
SD is denominated in BTC.

You could buy oil with USD, but that doesn't mean that oil is also denominated in APPL.

Temperature is measured using several different metrics, mostly Fahrenheit, Celsius, and Kelvin. Likewise, wealth is measured by numerous yardsticks, primarily USD, EUR, JPY, etc. Bitcoins and dollars are simply different methods of measuring and tracking wealth.

Imagine a sponge in a swimming pool. The sponge absorbs 1% of the water in the pool. Now replace the pool with a lake; the sponge might hold only 0.01% of that water.

In the above example, the pool water is all the wealth in the Bitcoin system and the sponge is SD. The lake is the wealth in the USD economy. If Bitcoin and USD switch places, SD does not change - only its share of the overall economy does. So unless SD grows to maintain its proportion to the total amount of wealth in the system, the share price will decline relative to the metric - in our case, BTC.

Ask yourself whether a gambling site can comprise 10% of the Bitcoin economy for years when there are so many businesses jumping into the system.

bitpop

legendary

Activity: 2912

Merit: 1060

Ooohh didnt get enough nicotine yet Wink

ThunderSheep

member

Activity: 88

Merit: 10

The sheep who walks through walls.

Quote from: bitpop on April 19, 2013, 03:36:43 AM

What is sd?
SD is denominated in BTC.

SD is Satoshi Dice.

bitpop

legendary

Activity: 2912

Merit: 1060

What is sd?
SD is denominated in BTC.

Picklee

newbie

Activity: 29

Merit: 0

Quote from: miscreanity on April 18, 2013, 03:08:43 PM

True, but bitcoins generally are denominated in another currency

No, no... That's like saying "USD are denominated in EUR". (And let's be frank, we all know that USD is really denominated in CNY!)

APPL is denominated in USD.
SD is denominated in BTC.

You could buy oil with USD, but that doesn't mean that oil is also denominated in APPL.

Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 20. (Read 192896 times)