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Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 20. (Read 192914 times)

ColdHardMetal
hero member
Activity: 700
Merit: 500
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 20, 2013, 11:47:25 PM
#1222
Quote from: Fizzgig on April 20, 2013, 11:22:16 PM
Quote from: dooglus on April 20, 2013, 05:24:26 PM
Quote from: Fizzgig on April 20, 2013, 10:27:18 AM
Part of the problem is the spectre of 87 million shares out there ready to be sold at any time.

There have always been 100 million shares.  Erik selling 3 million on behalf of a friend doesn't change anything.  Each share you own still gets one 100-millionth of the monthly profits each month.

So wait are there 13 million shares owned by the public or 10 million? I was under the impression there are now 13 million, an increase of 30% total shares outstanding.

There have always been 100 million shares owned. 10 million of those were initially released to the public with the remainder held by insiders. A few months (more or less, don't remember exactly) a further 3 million shares were released to the public, making 13 million in the hands of the public and 87 million for insiders. Nothings really changed other than who holds what.
Fizzgig
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 20, 2013, 11:22:16 PM
#1221
Quote from: dooglus on April 20, 2013, 05:24:26 PM
Quote from: Fizzgig on April 20, 2013, 10:27:18 AM
Part of the problem is the spectre of 87 million shares out there ready to be sold at any time.

There have always been 100 million shares.  Erik selling 3 million on behalf of a friend doesn't change anything.  Each share you own still gets one 100-millionth of the monthly profits each month.

So wait are there 13 million shares owned by the public or 10 million? I was under the impression there are now 13 million, an increase of 30% total shares outstanding.
Zaih
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 20, 2013, 05:30:16 PM
#1220
Looking at I think is to be the slowest month in history of SD as far as expected profit goes..

Then again, Bitcoins are more expensive now.. But still..
FTWbitcoinFTW
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 20, 2013, 05:29:45 PM
#1219
http://mpex.co/?mpsic=S.DICE
Quote
The representatives of SatoshiDice further warrant that they will never sell more than half the total shares.

Still 37%, no more
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 20, 2013, 05:24:26 PM
#1218
Quote from: Fizzgig on April 20, 2013, 10:27:18 AM
Part of the problem is the spectre of 87 million shares out there ready to be sold at any time.

There have always been 100 million shares.  Erik selling 3 million on behalf of a friend doesn't change anything.  Each share you own still gets one 100-millionth of the monthly profits each month.
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 20, 2013, 05:20:21 PM
#1217
Quote
Total of 38 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-20 03:11pm (up to block 232308)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   130538 |       3 (0.00002) |  128512 |    2023 |    1628.30 |    3842.62 |   150.88 |  -2214.31 | 235.989
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    11384 |       0 (0.00000) |   10823 |     561 |     158.75 |       0.38 |    22.57 |    158.36 |   0.241
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    11532 |       2 (0.00018) |   11043 |     487 |     167.51 |     320.16 |    14.97 |   -152.65 | 191.127
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    24634 |       5 (0.00021) |   24119 |     510 |     595.56 |     433.83 |    10.14 |    161.73 |  72.844
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    23761 |       4 (0.00017) |   23281 |     476 |     854.32 |     566.52 |    22.16 |    287.79 |  66.313
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    29607 |      13 (0.00045) |   29170 |     424 |    1652.13 |    1830.88 |     1.48 |   -178.75 | 110.819
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    30145 |      35 (0.00118) |   29596 |     514 |    2166.21 |    1740.29 |   116.96 |    425.91 |  80.338
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    21599 |      39 (0.00185) |   21069 |     491 |    2402.64 |    1568.00 |    48.48 |    834.64 |  65.262
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    26834 |     116 (0.00439) |   26303 |     415 |    6044.06 |    8661.85 |    13.28 |  -2617.79 | 143.312
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    38930 |     309 (0.00809) |   37863 |     758 |    8428.53 |    6945.37 |    10.22 |   1483.15 |  82.403
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   140741 |    2148 (0.01533) |  137985 |     608 |   42700.62 |   37001.56 |     2.42 |   5699.06 |  86.653
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    26292 |     597 (0.02304) |   25312 |     383 |    7990.43 |    8578.43 |    15.16 |   -587.99 | 107.359
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    90492 |    2761 (0.03065) |   87316 |     415 |   43365.22 |   38604.96 |     9.43 |   4760.25 |  89.023
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    31121 |    1421 (0.04638) |   29214 |     486 |    9856.28 |   10658.39 |    25.40 |   -802.10 | 108.138
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    37878 |    2326 (0.06208) |   35139 |     413 |    7811.16 |    7601.72 |    31.42 |    209.43 |  97.319
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    52961 |    4818 (0.09188) |   47619 |     524 |   17001.24 |   18544.56 |     7.57 |  -1543.31 | 109.078
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   204203 |   24980 (0.12268) |  178634 |     589 |  100465.61 |   99734.93 |   100.77 |    730.67 |  99.273
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   116874 |   21347 (0.18364) |   94899 |     628 |  179261.14 |  180886.59 |  3315.18 |  -1625.45 | 100.907
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   284802 |   69319 (0.24400) |  214779 |     704 |  377999.65 |  363868.41 |  2322.91 |  14131.23 |  96.262
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   277650 |  101809 (0.36757) |  175173 |     668 |  593769.38 |  585088.38 |  1013.57 |   8680.99 |  98.538
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1202184 |  585821 (0.48806) |  614491 |    1872 |  911942.80 |  893725.21 |  2925.78 |  18217.59 |  98.002
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   683002 |  340508 (0.49966) |  340972 |    1522 |  689488.47 |  672340.55 |  6522.74 |  17147.91 |  97.513
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   393686 |  288756 (0.73505) |  104082 |     848 |  310182.08 |  302730.60 |  6172.70 |   7451.48 |  97.598
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    89636 |   70672 (0.79422) |   18311 |     653 |   65251.37 |   63703.41 |  1188.00 |   1547.95 |  97.628
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    81283 |   69029 (0.85682) |   11535 |     719 |   82566.92 |   81793.94 |   401.05 |    772.97 |  99.064
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   130320 |  118646 (0.91616) |   10858 |     816 |   76431.33 |   75312.60 |     1.64 |   1118.73 |  98.536
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    21851 |   19815 (0.97900) |     425 |    1611 |   24990.29 |   24571.33 |   240.97 |    418.95 |  98.324
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4091583 | 1670222           | 2401537 |   19824 |  832822.06 |  818365.91 |   301.79 |  14456.14 |  98.264
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   122357 |   55077           |   66986 |     294 | 2732350.05 | 2672289.68 | 24406.21 |  60060.36 |  97.802
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4213940 | 1725299           | 2468523 |   20118 | 3565172.11 | 3490655.60 | 24708.00 |  74516.50 |  97.910
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      74516.50981398 BTC (2.090%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3437.10857500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71079.40123898 BTC (1.994%)
Pending Liabilities:            0.00000000 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71079.40123898 BTC (1.994%)
Profit This Month:           3236.47467136 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13592456  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7718607  (56.8%)
Blockchain MB:   5926.9  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3185.8  (53.8%)



Fizzgig
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 20, 2013, 10:27:18 AM
#1216
Part of the problem is the spectre of 87 million shares out there ready to be sold at any time. Back when there was a healthy buy/sell market, 3 million shares were sold by SD (not offered, sold onto the market). So who's to know when all selling opportunity evaporates since it is unknown publicly how SD will act. This is akin to the blockchain randomly awarding 100k bitcoins to the winner of a block, it screws with markets when all information isn't given beforehand, and it would make sense to just keep tiering up, ipo at .0032, .0034, .0037, price rose to like .006, so why not put up:

1 million at .01
1 million at .011
...
1 million at .02

Now SD would have a plan to sell their next 10 million shares onto the market at a natural rate as long as they prove themselves, and they have always seemed pretty confident about what they are doing. It may have taken years but at least they didn't dry up the market. As it turned out, investors are stuck with their shares now, hoping their dividends are worth it.
RationalSpeculator
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 19, 2013, 11:04:22 PM
#1215
Quote from: miscreanity on April 19, 2013, 03:08:25 PM
Quote from: Picklee on April 18, 2013, 09:32:05 PM
In the above example, the pool water is all the wealth in the Bitcoin system and the sponge is SD. The lake is the wealth in the USD economy. If Bitcoin and USD switch places, SD does not change - only its share of the overall economy does. So unless SD grows to maintain its proportion to the total amount of wealth in the system, the share price will decline relative to the metric - in our case, BTC.

Ask yourself whether a gambling site can comprise 10% of the Bitcoin economy for years when there are so many businesses jumping into the system.

A corollary of this is you shouldn't buy any bitcoin business shares. If bitcoin succeeds their BTC share price will almost certainly dive due to deflation. It might be soaring according to the USD yardstick, but you would have been better off just holding BTC. If bitcoin fails the shares will probably be worthless. Actually this isn't quite right; the bitcoin shares would be worth buying if their dividend rate makes up for the appreciation of the BTC, which probably means extraordinarily large.

You are right. I thought sdice would be a good protection against collapsing btc value, but that was not the case as the sdice shares did not go up when btc dropped drasticly. So when btc goes to the moon, you are screwed with sdice (or any company) as it just doesn't go up and instead tanks in btc value. And when btc collapses, the sdice valuation also does not go up to compensate so your losing too. The only time sdice has outperformed btc was when btc prices were trending trending sideways or slowly up, as was the case from the last half year of 2012. Let's hope we get that again as I'd like to see sdice regain some of it's btc value.
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 19, 2013, 08:53:05 PM
#1214
The 'pending liabilities' line is showing 0 BTC until I can gain access to the site again.  I hear that the domain has been renewed now, but I can't yet see the site.

Quote
Total of 196 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-19 06:46pm (up to block 232179)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   130194 |       3 (0.00002) |  128171 |    2020 |    1623.18 |    3842.59 |   150.87 |  -2219.41 | 236.732
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    11370 |       0 (0.00000) |   10809 |     561 |     158.40 |       0.38 |    22.57 |    158.02 |   0.241
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    11525 |       2 (0.00018) |   11036 |     487 |     166.94 |     320.16 |    14.97 |   -153.22 | 191.784
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    23302 |       5 (0.00022) |   22788 |     509 |     558.54 |     433.64 |    10.14 |    124.89 |  77.639
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    23602 |       4 (0.00017) |   23122 |     476 |     848.26 |     566.49 |    22.16 |    281.76 |  66.783
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    28720 |      13 (0.00046) |   28283 |     424 |    1607.61 |    1830.66 |     1.48 |   -223.04 | 113.874
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    29599 |      35 (0.00120) |   29052 |     512 |    2130.00 |    1740.11 |   116.95 |    389.88 |  81.695
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    21559 |      39 (0.00185) |   21030 |     490 |    2401.96 |    1568.00 |    48.47 |    833.96 |  65.280
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    26811 |     116 (0.00439) |   26280 |     415 |    6043.60 |    8661.85 |    13.28 |  -2618.25 | 143.323
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    38843 |     309 (0.00811) |   37780 |     754 |    8422.84 |    6945.34 |    10.21 |   1477.50 |  82.458
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   140054 |    2136 (0.01532) |  137313 |     605 |   42621.43 |   36925.58 |     2.41 |   5695.85 |  86.636
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    26249 |     597 (0.02308) |   25269 |     383 |    7985.52 |    8578.40 |    15.16 |   -592.88 | 107.424
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    90030 |    2746 (0.03064) |   86870 |     414 |   43352.30 |   38588.12 |     9.42 |   4764.18 |  89.011
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    31033 |    1418 (0.04642) |   29129 |     486 |    9850.62 |   10656.83 |    25.40 |   -806.21 | 108.184
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    37757 |    2320 (0.06212) |   35025 |     412 |    7804.29 |    7594.47 |    31.42 |    209.82 |  97.311
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    52830 |    4807 (0.09190) |   47500 |     523 |   16993.76 |   18531.24 |     7.56 |  -1537.48 | 109.047
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   203994 |   24951 (0.12267) |  178456 |     587 |  100409.49 |   99724.37 |   100.76 |    685.11 |  99.318
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   116436 |   21273 (0.18369) |   94539 |     624 |  179182.73 |  180778.09 |  3315.17 |  -1595.36 | 100.890
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   284403 |   69214 (0.24396) |  214492 |     697 |  377975.39 |  363843.64 |  2322.89 |  14131.75 |  96.261
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   277122 |  101595 (0.36749) |  174860 |     667 |  593706.87 |  584996.43 |  1013.56 |   8710.44 |  98.533
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1200638 |  585098 (0.48808) |  613670 |    1870 |  911688.27 |  893508.87 |  2925.78 |  18179.40 |  98.006
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   682197 |  340096 (0.49964) |  340589 |    1512 |  689328.09 |  672215.84 |  6522.71 |  17112.24 |  97.518
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   393106 |  288344 (0.73508) |  103918 |     844 |  310110.16 |  302653.90 |  6172.69 |   7456.26 |  97.596
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    89377 |   70468 (0.79421) |   18259 |     650 |   65201.17 |   63662.64 |  1188.00 |   1538.53 |  97.640
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    80923 |   68729 (0.85691) |   11477 |     717 |   82528.67 |   81756.53 |   401.05 |    772.14 |  99.064
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   129955 |  118322 (0.91618) |   10825 |     808 |   76379.31 |   75260.41 |     1.60 |   1118.89 |  98.535
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    21749 |   19726 (0.97896) |     424 |    1599 |   24983.53 |   24564.60 |   240.95 |    418.93 |  98.323
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4081046 | 1667299           | 2393995 |   19752 |  831910.47 |  817629.02 |   301.55 |  14281.45 |  98.283
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   122332 |   55067           |   66971 |     294 | 2732152.60 | 2672120.27 | 24406.21 |  60032.32 |  97.803
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4203378 | 1722366           | 2460966 |   20046 | 3564063.07 | 3489749.29 | 24707.77 |  74313.78 |  97.915
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      74313.78015794 BTC (2.085%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3425.97257500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       70887.80758294 BTC (1.989%)
Pending Liabilities:            0.00000000 BTC
Final SD Profit:            70887.80758294 BTC (1.989%)
Profit This Month:           3044.88101532 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13553133  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7701306  (56.8%)
Blockchain MB:   5908.3  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3178.0  (53.8%)



TimJBenham
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 19, 2013, 07:53:39 PM
#1213
Quote from: miscreanity on April 19, 2013, 03:08:25 PM
In the above example, the pool water is all the wealth in the Bitcoin system and the sponge is SD. The lake is the wealth in the USD economy. If Bitcoin and USD switch places, SD does not change - only its share of the overall economy does. So unless SD grows to maintain its proportion to the total amount of wealth in the system, the share price will decline relative to the metric - in our case, BTC.

Ask yourself whether a gambling site can comprise 10% of the Bitcoin economy for years when there are so many businesses jumping into the system.

A corollary of this is you shouldn't buy any bitcoin business shares. If bitcoin succeeds their BTC share price will almost certainly dive due to deflation. It might be soaring according to the USD yardstick, but you would have been better off just holding BTC. If bitcoin fails the shares will probably be worthless. Actually this isn't quite right; the bitcoin shares would be worth buying if their dividend rate makes up for the appreciation of the BTC, which probably means extraordinarily large.
miscreanity
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1005
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 19, 2013, 03:08:25 PM
#1212
Quote from: Picklee on April 18, 2013, 09:32:05 PM
No, no... That's like saying "USD are denominated in EUR". (And let's be frank, we all know that USD is really denominated in CNY!)

APPL is denominated in USD.
SD is denominated in BTC.

You could buy oil with USD, but that doesn't mean that oil is also denominated in APPL.

Temperature is measured using several different metrics, mostly Fahrenheit, Celsius, and Kelvin. Likewise, wealth is measured by numerous yardsticks, primarily USD, EUR, JPY, etc. Bitcoins and dollars are simply different methods of measuring and tracking wealth.

Imagine a sponge in a swimming pool. The sponge absorbs 1% of the water in the pool. Now replace the pool with a lake; the sponge might hold only 0.01% of that water.

In the above example, the pool water is all the wealth in the Bitcoin system and the sponge is SD. The lake is the wealth in the USD economy. If Bitcoin and USD switch places, SD does not change - only its share of the overall economy does. So unless SD grows to maintain its proportion to the total amount of wealth in the system, the share price will decline relative to the metric - in our case, BTC.

Ask yourself whether a gambling site can comprise 10% of the Bitcoin economy for years when there are so many businesses jumping into the system.
bitpop
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 1060
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 19, 2013, 03:45:44 AM
#1211
Ooohh didnt get enough nicotine yet Wink
ThunderSheep
member
Activity: 88
Merit: 10
The sheep who walks through walls.
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 19, 2013, 03:41:18 AM
#1210
Quote from: bitpop on April 19, 2013, 03:36:43 AM
What is sd?
SD is denominated in BTC.

SD is Satoshi Dice.
bitpop
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 1060
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 19, 2013, 03:36:43 AM
#1209
What is sd?
SD is denominated in BTC.
Picklee
newbie
Activity: 29
Merit: 0
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 18, 2013, 09:32:05 PM
#1208
Quote from: miscreanity on April 18, 2013, 03:08:43 PM
True, but bitcoins generally are denominated in another currency

No, no... That's like saying "USD are denominated in EUR". (And let's be frank, we all know that USD is really denominated in CNY!)

APPL is denominated in USD.
SD is denominated in BTC.

You could buy oil with USD, but that doesn't mean that oil is also denominated in APPL.
furuknap
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
http://coin.furuknap.net/
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 18, 2013, 03:13:30 PM
#1207
Quote from: miscreanity on April 18, 2013, 03:08:43 PM
True, but bitcoins generally are denominated in another currency, and will be until the system is large and stable enough to act independently.

What we need is a USD-exchange, where you can buy USD denominated in Bitcoins rather than the other way around.

"OMG! USD is crashing! It's dropped almost 50% today! Sell, sell, sell!"

.b
miscreanity
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1005
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 18, 2013, 03:08:43 PM
#1206
Quote from: dooglus on April 17, 2013, 11:15:14 PM
Quote from: miscreanity on April 17, 2013, 03:50:05 PM
Apple is not denominated in oil, or it would have to be taken into account.
That was kind of my point.

Apple isn't denominated in oil, and SatoshiDice isn't denominated in dollars.

True, but bitcoins generally are denominated in another currency, and will be until the system is large and stable enough to act independently.

Cross currency valuation acts like a fulcrum. Replace bitcoins with euros in calculations and the same situation arises.
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 18, 2013, 02:26:12 PM
#1205
Quote
Total of 39 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-18 12:25pm (up to block 232018)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   129419 |       3 (0.00002) |  127410 |    2006 |    1610.75 |    3842.53 |   150.80 |  -2231.77 | 238.554
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    10743 |       0 (0.00000) |   10184 |     559 |     152.14 |       0.35 |    22.55 |    151.79 |   0.230
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    10921 |       2 (0.00019) |   10433 |     486 |     160.82 |     320.13 |    14.96 |   -159.31 | 199.059
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    22771 |       5 (0.00022) |   22263 |     503 |     542.00 |     433.56 |    10.14 |    108.43 |  79.993
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    23210 |       4 (0.00018) |   22732 |     474 |     831.78 |     566.41 |    22.15 |    265.36 |  68.096
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    28372 |      13 (0.00047) |   27937 |     422 |    1591.91 |    1830.58 |     1.48 |   -238.67 | 114.993
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    29550 |      35 (0.00121) |   29004 |     511 |    2126.17 |    1740.09 |   116.94 |    386.07 |  81.842
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    21542 |      39 (0.00185) |   21014 |     489 |    2400.46 |    1567.99 |    48.47 |    832.47 |  65.320
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    26784 |     116 (0.00440) |   26254 |     414 |    6043.05 |    8661.85 |    13.27 |  -2618.79 | 143.336
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    38787 |     309 (0.00812) |   37724 |     754 |    8412.76 |    6945.29 |    10.21 |   1467.47 |  82.557
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   139467 |    2120 (0.01527) |  136747 |     600 |   42609.34 |   36911.57 |     2.39 |   5697.77 |  86.628
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    26208 |     596 (0.02308) |   25230 |     382 |    7984.82 |    8577.97 |    15.16 |   -593.15 | 107.428
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    89393 |    2732 (0.03070) |   86247 |     414 |   43328.21 |   38580.63 |     9.42 |   4747.57 |  89.043
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    30966 |    1415 (0.04642) |   29065 |     486 |    9848.18 |   10655.11 |    25.40 |   -806.93 | 108.194
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    37324 |    2291 (0.06207) |   34621 |     412 |    7781.56 |    7573.64 |    31.42 |    207.91 |  97.328
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    52681 |    4793 (0.09189) |   47367 |     521 |   16986.15 |   18522.99 |     7.56 |  -1536.83 | 109.048
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   203402 |   24879 (0.12267) |  177940 |     583 |  100314.35 |   99591.19 |   100.74 |    723.16 |  99.279
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   115645 |   21105 (0.18349) |   93916 |     624 |  179105.62 |  180678.32 |  3315.17 |  -1572.70 | 100.878
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   283424 |   69007 (0.24407) |  213733 |     684 |  377727.99 |  363545.08 |  2322.87 |  14182.90 |  96.245
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   275935 |  101182 (0.36757) |  174090 |     663 |  593544.23 |  584807.34 |  1013.54 |   8736.88 |  98.528
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1197817 |  583716 (0.48807) |  612243 |    1858 |  911159.45 |  892958.92 |  2925.72 |  18200.53 |  98.002
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   680501 |  339249 (0.49963) |  339755 |    1497 |  688697.66 |  671604.61 |  6522.65 |  17093.05 |  97.518
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   391744 |  287343 (0.73506) |  103567 |     834 |  309956.74 |  302519.35 |  6172.63 |   7437.38 |  97.601
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    89046 |   70212 (0.79421) |   18193 |     641 |   65035.82 |   63598.40 |  1187.97 |   1437.41 |  97.790
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    80686 |   68524 (0.85685) |   11448 |     714 |   82272.11 |   81485.45 |   401.04 |    786.65 |  99.044
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   129211 |  117648 (0.91615) |   10768 |     795 |   76138.63 |   75039.26 |     1.55 |   1099.37 |  98.556
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    21604 |   19621 (0.97914) |     418 |    1565 |   24976.25 |   24557.84 |   240.91 |    418.40 |  98.325
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4064925 | 1661947           | 2383381 |   19597 |  830381.91 |  816103.70 |   301.03 |  14278.21 |  98.281
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   122228 |   55012           |   66922 |     294 | 2730957.16 | 2671012.87 | 24406.21 |  59944.29 |  97.805
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4187153 | 1716959           | 2450303 |   19891 | 3561339.07 | 3487116.57 | 24707.25 |  74222.50 |  97.916
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      74222.50174097 BTC (2.084%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3408.94037500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       70813.56136597 BTC (1.988%)
Pending Liabilities:            0.00000000 BTC
Final SD Profit:            70813.56136597 BTC (1.988%)
Profit This Month:           2970.63479835 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13479857  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7672350  (56.9%)
Blockchain MB:   5874.7  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3166.2  (53.9%)



dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 17, 2013, 11:15:14 PM
#1204
Quote from: miscreanity on April 17, 2013, 03:50:05 PM
Apple is not denominated in oil, or it would have to be taken into account.

That was kind of my point.

Apple isn't denominated in oil, and SatoshiDice isn't denominated in dollars.
miscreanity
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1005
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 17, 2013, 03:50:05 PM
#1203
Quote from: dooglus on April 16, 2013, 05:17:52 PM
If you have some US dollars and are considering investing in Apple stock, you don't take the price of oil into account (unless you're also considering investing in oil).

In the same way if you have Bitcoin and are considering investing in SDICE, you don't take the price of US dollars into account (unless you're also considering investing in fiat).

Apple is not denominated in oil, or it would have to be taken into account.

If the Bitcoin economy holds $1,000,000,000 of wealth at 11,000,000 units, each bitcoin is worth about $91. Assuming SD is worth $10,000,000, that would make the business worth 110,000 bitcoins.

If the exchange rate doubles, making the Bitcoin economy worth $2,000,000,000, but SD remains at the same absolute valuation, it should then be worth 55,000 bitcoins.

SD has been estimated to be worth $100-200,000,000, which I think is appropriate. This means that at a current economy size of $1 billion, SD should be worth 10-20% of the entire stock of bitcoins, or 1.1-2.2mm BTC. Therefore, the share price should be about 3-6x higher than the 0.0033 level. Hypothetically.

Of course, there are other factors, but that shows the USD relation due to both it and Bitcoin being concurrent measures and stores of value.
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