Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 17.

DeaDTerra

donator

Activity: 1064

Merit: 1000

Quote from: BTCdude007 on May 02, 2013, 12:08:16 PM

Didn't SD start requiring 1 confirmation? Maybe that caused the betting dropoff as the fun was in knowing (almost) instantaneously whether you won or not...

The exact way the double spend protection system works is secret.
For bets above a certain amount and within certain variables 1 confirmation is needed, but for most transaction 0 confirmation should be fine.
//DeaDTerra

BTCdude007

sr. member

Activity: 686

Merit: 250

Didn't SD start requiring 1 confirmation? Maybe that caused the betting dropoff as the fun was in knowing (almost) instantaneously whether you won or not...

jking

newbie

Activity: 34

Merit: 0

Quote from: organofcorti on May 02, 2013, 09:26:35 AM

Quote from: jking on May 02, 2013, 08:14:23 AM

Quote from: organofcorti on May 02, 2013, 05:06:46 AM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on May 02, 2013, 02:17:15 AM

Quote from: organofcorti on May 02, 2013, 02:06:14 AM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on May 02, 2013, 01:56:43 AM

Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?

This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means.

Isn't minimum bet already very low? Something around 0.01 btc?

If yes, then is it not more likely that gamblers just reduce the amount of btc they bet, instead of playing less?

Not if they like to feel like they're just playing a game, maybe? Bettors might not miss a few cents here and there, but bets of a dollar each soon stack up.

Also, don't forget that when the exchange rate rockets, lots of people will tend to hoard while they wait for the exchange rate will level. This might reduce not just the amount they spend, but reduce spending events as well.

Do you think declining # of bets might have something to do with this too?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1632751

How do you mean?

Well, I was just hunting for events that happened around mid March 2013 that correlated with the decline in transactions. The fork was on March 11, but I don't think that explains it. The comment by dooglus would seem to indicate another event occurred around this time -- a change in the betting structure. Maybe this change explains the decline in # of transactions? I don't really know what it implies and defer to you guys on this. I don't know much about SatoshiDice... just curious.

organofcorti

donator

Activity: 2058

Merit: 1007

Poor impulse control.

Quote from: jking on May 02, 2013, 08:14:23 AM

Quote from: organofcorti on May 02, 2013, 05:06:46 AM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on May 02, 2013, 02:17:15 AM

Quote from: organofcorti on May 02, 2013, 02:06:14 AM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on May 02, 2013, 01:56:43 AM

Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?

This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means.

Isn't minimum bet already very low? Something around 0.01 btc?

If yes, then is it not more likely that gamblers just reduce the amount of btc they bet, instead of playing less?

Not if they like to feel like they're just playing a game, maybe? Bettors might not miss a few cents here and there, but bets of a dollar each soon stack up.

Also, don't forget that when the exchange rate rockets, lots of people will tend to hoard while they wait for the exchange rate will level. This might reduce not just the amount they spend, but reduce spending events as well.

Do you think declining # of bets might have something to do with this too?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1632751

How do you mean?

jking

newbie

Activity: 34

Merit: 0

Quote from: organofcorti on May 02, 2013, 05:06:46 AM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on May 02, 2013, 02:17:15 AM

Quote from: organofcorti on May 02, 2013, 02:06:14 AM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on May 02, 2013, 01:56:43 AM

Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?

This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means.

Isn't minimum bet already very low? Something around 0.01 btc?

If yes, then is it not more likely that gamblers just reduce the amount of btc they bet, instead of playing less?

Not if they like to feel like they're just playing a game, maybe? Bettors might not miss a few cents here and there, but bets of a dollar each soon stack up.

Also, don't forget that when the exchange rate rockets, lots of people will tend to hoard while they wait for the exchange rate will level. This might reduce not just the amount they spend, but reduce spending events as well.

Do you think declining # of bets might have something to do with this too?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1632751

organofcorti

donator

Activity: 2058

Merit: 1007

Poor impulse control.

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on May 02, 2013, 02:17:15 AM

Quote from: organofcorti on May 02, 2013, 02:06:14 AM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on May 02, 2013, 01:56:43 AM

Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?

This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means.

Isn't minimum bet already very low? Something around 0.01 btc?

If yes, then is it not more likely that gamblers just reduce the amount of btc they bet, instead of playing less?

Not if they like to feel like they're just playing a game, maybe? Bettors might not miss a few cents here and there, but bets of a dollar each soon stack up.

Also, don't forget that when the exchange rate rockets, lots of people will tend to hoard while they wait for the exchange rate will level. This might reduce not just the amount they spend, but reduce spending events as well.

RationalSpeculator

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!

Quote from: organofcorti on May 02, 2013, 02:06:14 AM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on May 02, 2013, 01:56:43 AM

Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?

This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means.

Isn't minimum bet already very low? Something around 0.01 btc?

If yes, then is it not more likely that gamblers just reduce the amount of btc they bet, instead of playing less?

organofcorti

donator

Activity: 2058

Merit: 1007

Poor impulse control.

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on May 02, 2013, 01:56:43 AM

Quote from: jking on May 02, 2013, 12:14:41 AM

I pulled the numbers off of SatoshiDice's public statments on Google docs:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aiec3-Eo_yO5dHB2dVdiaEltUHAtTWlBcFhXQVBYeGc#gid=12

Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?

Quote from: organofcorti on May 01, 2013, 09:32:57 PM

This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means.

RationalSpeculator

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!

Quote from: jking on May 02, 2013, 12:14:41 AM

I pulled the numbers off of SatoshiDice's public statments on Google docs:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aiec3-Eo_yO5dHB2dVdiaEltUHAtTWlBcFhXQVBYeGc#gid=12

Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?

jking

newbie

Activity: 34

Merit: 0

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on May 01, 2013, 11:58:24 PM

Quote from: jking on May 01, 2013, 09:27:19 PM

Quote from: furuknap on May 01, 2013, 08:59:33 PM

Quote from: jking on May 01, 2013, 08:58:11 PM

Just a quick question.

I noticed that SatoshiDice # of bets declined dramatically in the middle of March from around 20k-25k to 15k. Since then its been hovering 15k +/- 5k Can anyone tell me why this happened?

One reason may be that the price of BTC rose to much higher levels during that time. What people are willing to bet may be the same, but the amount of BTC that represents is much smaller with a high exchange rate.

.b

That could be. But the change in # of bets is discontinuous and sudden, not gradual. It seems odd to me that on March 15-17, all bettors suddenly decided to reduce # of bets. As BTC rises, you'd assume that bettors would keep the real value of their betting constant through a gradual combination of decreasing bet quantity and decreasing bet size.

Very good question. Thanks for bringing that up.

How have you been able to discover this?

Can that be seen on dooglus charts?

Or do you keep track of sdice in sheet with daily numbers, deducted from dooglus charts?

I pulled the numbers off of SatoshiDice's public statments on Google docs:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aiec3-Eo_yO5dHB2dVdiaEltUHAtTWlBcFhXQVBYeGc#gid=12

RationalSpeculator

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!

Quote from: jking on May 01, 2013, 09:27:19 PM

Quote from: furuknap on May 01, 2013, 08:59:33 PM

Quote from: jking on May 01, 2013, 08:58:11 PM

Just a quick question.

I noticed that SatoshiDice # of bets declined dramatically in the middle of March from around 20k-25k to 15k. Since then its been hovering 15k +/- 5k Can anyone tell me why this happened?

One reason may be that the price of BTC rose to much higher levels during that time. What people are willing to bet may be the same, but the amount of BTC that represents is much smaller with a high exchange rate.

.b

That could be. But the change in # of bets is discontinuous and sudden, not gradual. It seems odd to me that on March 15-17, all bettors suddenly decided to reduce # of bets. As BTC rises, you'd assume that bettors would keep the real value of their betting constant through a gradual combination of decreasing bet quantity and decreasing bet size.

Very good question. Thanks for bringing that up.

How have you been able to discover this?

Can that be seen on dooglus charts?

Or do you keep track of sdice in sheet with daily numbers, deducted from dooglus charts?

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: Dice on May 01, 2013, 03:13:33 AM

Do you have a list of the above chart from previous months?

Yes:

Quote

2012/04/30 -8.34303562
+1977.70657444 2012/05/31 1969.36353882
-2486.30832957 2012/06/30 -516.94479075
+2526.33884886 2012/07/31 2009.39405811
+7745.52421697 2012/08/31 9754.91827508
+2213.71305627 2012/09/30 11968.63133135
-1995.05289803 2012/10/31 9973.57843332
+6176.88060145 2012/11/30 16150.45903477
+17171.39821715 2012/12/31 33321.85725192
+20021.26392603 2013/01/31 53343.12117795
+13333.24627993 2013/02/28 66676.36745788
+1166.55910974 2013/03/31 67842.92656762
+3760.48177700 2013/04/30 71603.40834462

organofcorti

donator

Activity: 2058

Merit: 1007

Poor impulse control.

Quote from: jking on May 01, 2013, 09:27:19 PM

Quote from: furuknap on May 01, 2013, 08:59:33 PM

Quote from: jking on May 01, 2013, 08:58:11 PM

Just a quick question.

I noticed that SatoshiDice # of bets declined dramatically in the middle of March from around 20k-25k to 15k. Since then its been hovering 15k +/- 5k Can anyone tell me why this happened?

One reason may be that the price of BTC rose to much higher levels during that time. What people are willing to bet may be the same, but the amount of BTC that represents is much smaller with a high exchange rate.

.b

That could be. But the change in # of bets is discontinuous and sudden, not gradual. It seems odd to me that on March 15-17, all bettors suddenly decided to reduce # of bets. As BTC rises, you'd assume that bettors would keep the real value of their betting constant through a gradual combination of decreasing bet quantity and decreasing bet size.

This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means.

jking

newbie

Activity: 34

Merit: 0

Quote from: furuknap on May 01, 2013, 08:59:33 PM

Quote from: jking on May 01, 2013, 08:58:11 PM

Just a quick question.

I noticed that SatoshiDice # of bets declined dramatically in the middle of March from around 20k-25k to 15k. Since then its been hovering 15k +/- 5k Can anyone tell me why this happened?

One reason may be that the price of BTC rose to much higher levels during that time. What people are willing to bet may be the same, but the amount of BTC that represents is much smaller with a high exchange rate.

.b

That could be. But the change in # of bets is discontinuous and sudden, not gradual. It seems odd to me that on March 15-17, all bettors suddenly decided to reduce # of bets. As BTC rises, you'd assume that bettors would keep the real value of their betting constant through a gradual combination of decreasing bet quantity and decreasing bet size.

furuknap

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

http://coin.furuknap.net/

Quote from: jking on May 01, 2013, 08:58:11 PM

Just a quick question.

I noticed that SatoshiDice # of bets declined dramatically in the middle of March from around 20k-25k to 15k. Since then its been hovering 15k +/- 5k Can anyone tell me why this happened?

One reason may be that the price of BTC rose to much higher levels during that time. What people are willing to bet may be the same, but the amount of BTC that represents is much smaller with a high exchange rate.

.b

jking

newbie

Activity: 34

Merit: 0

Just a quick question.

I noticed that SatoshiDice # of bets declined dramatically in the middle of March from around 20k-25k to 15k. Since then its been hovering 15k +/- 5k Can anyone tell me why this happened?

Carnth

hero member

Activity: 634

Merit: 500

Quote from: Dice on May 01, 2013, 03:13:33 AM

Quote from: dooglus on April 30, 2013, 08:00:33 PM

Looks like 3,760 BTC profit for the month:

Quote

2013/03/31 67842.92656762
2013/04/30 71603.40834462
3760.48177700

Do you have a list of the above chart from previous months?

If you are only interested in monthly profit history, you can always check the official S.DICE spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aiec3-Eo_yO5dHB2dVdiaEltUHAtTWlBcFhXQVBYeGc

There are tabs that have the history of every month.

thoughtfan

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 506

Quote from: Dice on May 01, 2013, 03:13:33 AM

Quote from: dooglus on April 30, 2013, 08:00:33 PM

Looks like 3,760 BTC profit for the month:

Quote

2013/03/31 67842.92656762
2013/04/30 71603.40834462
3760.48177700

Do you have a list of the above chart from previous months?

Regards

They're further back on this thread since dooglus started doing them. They shouldn't be too hard to locate but if you are going to do them would you mind posting the rest of us the list of the links to the relevant posts please?

Dice

member

Activity: 69

Merit: 10

Quote from: dooglus on April 30, 2013, 08:00:33 PM

Looks like 3,760 BTC profit for the month:

Quote

2013/03/31 67842.92656762
2013/04/30 71603.40834462
3760.48177700

Do you have a list of the above chart from previous months?

Regards

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Looks like 3,760 BTC profit for the month:

Quote

2013/03/31 67842.92656762
2013/04/30 71603.40834462
3760.48177700

Quote

Total of 64 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-30 05:55pm (up to block 233980)

   Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 136571 | 3 (0.00002) | 134408 | 2160 | 1723.80 | 3843.10 | 159.33 | -2119.29 | 222.942
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 12450 | 0 (0.00000) | 11884 | 566 | 170.41 | 0.44 | 22.84 | 169.97 | 0.259
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 13121 | 2 (0.00016) | 12623 | 496 | 185.77 | 320.26 | 17.49 | -134.48 | 172.390
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 25122 | 5 (0.00020) | 24590 | 527 | 601.97 | 433.86 | 13.37 | 168.11 | 72.073
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 24399 | 5 (0.00021) | 23911 | 483 | 866.05 | 606.56 | 22.19 | 259.49 | 70.037
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 30215 | 13 (0.00044) | 29763 | 439 | 1660.55 | 1830.92 | 1.51 | -170.36 | 110.260
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 30707 | 35 (0.00116) | 30152 | 520 | 2188.99 | 1740.41 | 116.98 | 448.58 | 79.507
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 22076 | 40 (0.00186) | 21522 | 514 | 2417.67 | 1573.09 | 48.56 | 844.57 | 65.067
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 27187 | 116 (0.00433) | 26652 | 419 | 6071.90 | 8661.99 | 13.29 | -2590.08 | 142.657
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 39549 | 311 (0.00802) | 38456 | 782 | 8454.50 | 6948.00 | 10.30 | 1506.50 | 82.181
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 146137 | 2252 (0.01548) | 143247 | 638 | 42922.79 | 37261.53 | 2.52 | 5661.26 | 86.811
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 26692 | 608 (0.02312) | 25692 | 392 | 7998.17 | 8588.48 | 15.21 | -590.31 | 107.381
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 94689 | 2909 (0.03086) | 91355 | 425 | 43480.85 | 38759.82 | 9.47 | 4721.02 | 89.142
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 31702 | 1443 (0.04625) | 29754 | 505 | 9874.63 | 10669.70 | 25.45 | -795.06 | 108.052
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 39269 | 2402 (0.06182) | 36450 | 417 | 7873.65 | 7660.29 | 31.44 | 213.35 | 97.290
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 55881 | 5066 (0.09154) | 50276 | 539 | 17139.81 | 18677.12 | 7.63 | -1537.31 | 108.969
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 210584 | 25758 (0.12268) | 184211 | 615 | 100776.26 | 100026.28 | 100.93 | 749.97 | 99.256
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 122497 | 22350 (0.18343) | 99496 | 651 | 179834.89 | 181408.21 | 3315.31 | -1573.32 | 100.875
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 294410 | 71648 (0.24397) | 222026 | 736 | 379419.76 | 365751.96 | 2323.05 | 13667.79 | 96.398
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 288547 | 105765 (0.36741) | 182098 | 684 | 595675.46 | 586888.24 | 1013.65 | 8787.22 | 98.525
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1225527 | 597180 (0.48806) | 626410 | 1937 | 917499.89 | 899242.98 | 2926.09 | 18256.90 | 98.010
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 701423 | 349622 (0.49961) | 350170 | 1631 | 698123.78 | 680234.03 | 6523.13 | 17889.74 | 97.437
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 406771 | 298351 (0.73508) | 107527 | 893 | 311860.56 | 304443.00 | 6172.87 | 7417.56 | 97.622
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 93093 | 73404 (0.79418) | 19023 | 666 | 65867.01 | 64314.01 | 1188.05 | 1553.00 | 97.642
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 87069 | 74016 (0.85752) | 12298 | 755 | 83567.95 | 82794.79 | 401.19 | 773.16 | 99.075
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 136385 | 124123 (0.91594) | 11391 | 871 | 77821.80 | 76676.01 | 1.88 | 1145.78 | 98.528
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 22563 | 20398 (0.97856) | 447 | 1718 | 25077.31 | 24656.14 | 241.14 | 421.17 | 98.321
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   small (bets < 4 BTC) | 4221577 | 1722372 | 2478520 | 20685 | 846382.85 | 831659.97 | 318.78 | 14722.87 | 98.260
   big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 123059 | 55453 | 67312 | 294 | 2742773.49 | 2682351.38 | 24406.21 | 60422.11 | 97.797
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   | 4344636 | 1777825 | 2545832 | 20979 | 3589156.34 | 3514011.35 | 24724.99 | 75144.99 | 97.906
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 75144.99539272 BTC (2.094%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 3574.02737500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 71570.96801772 BTC (1.994%)
Pending Liabilities: 0.00000000 BTC
Final SD Profit: 71570.96801772 BTC (1.994%)
Profit This Month: -32.44032690 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 14120174 : SatoshiDice Tx: 7959294 (56.4%)
Blockchain MB: 6178.6 : SatoshiDice MB: 3286.1 (53.2%)

Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 17. (Read 192914 times)