Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 17.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote

Total of 118 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-May-03 11:46am (up to block 234372)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 137903 | 3 (0.00002) | 135655 | 2245 | 1741.97 | 3843.19 | 164.62 | -2101.21 | 220.623
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 12629 | 0 (0.00000) | 12062 | 567 | 172.61 | 0.45 | 22.84 | 172.15 | 0.262
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 14058 | 2 (0.00015) | 13559 | 497 | 195.42 | 320.30 | 17.49 | -124.88 | 163.906
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 25273 | 5 (0.00020) | 24740 | 528 | 603.80 | 433.87 | 14.62 | 169.93 | 71.856
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 24481 | 5 (0.00021) | 23992 | 484 | 867.55 | 606.57 | 22.19 | 260.98 | 69.917
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 30344 | 13 (0.00043) | 29887 | 444 | 1662.56 | 1830.93 | 1.55 | -168.37 | 110.127
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 30813 | 35 (0.00116) | 30255 | 523 | 2190.94 | 1740.41 | 116.99 | 450.52 | 79.437
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 22179 | 41 (0.00189) | 21623 | 515 | 2419.99 | 1578.10 | 48.56 | 841.89 | 65.211
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 27243 | 116 (0.00432) | 26708 | 419 | 6074.08 | 8662.00 | 13.29 | -2587.92 | 142.606
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 39728 | 312 (0.00801) | 38632 | 784 | 8456.54 | 6949.26 | 10.31 | 1507.28 | 82.176
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 149403 | 2301 (0.01547) | 146456 | 646 | 43049.98 | 37362.97 | 2.55 | 5687.01 | 86.790
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 26761 | 611 (0.02317) | 25756 | 394 | 7999.08 | 8590.20 | 15.21 | -591.11 | 107.390
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 96219 | 2957 (0.03087) | 92836 | 426 | 43555.01 | 38808.36 | 9.47 | 4746.64 | 89.102
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 31806 | 1451 (0.04636) | 29850 | 505 | 9876.30 | 10672.80 | 25.45 | -796.50 | 108.065
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 39416 | 2413 (0.06187) | 36586 | 417 | 7938.14 | 7869.23 | 31.44 | 68.90 | 99.132
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 56295 | 5101 (0.09149) | 50651 | 543 | 17151.03 | 18687.25 | 7.64 | -1536.21 | 108.957
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 215879 | 26424 (0.12275) | 188835 | 620 | 101209.90 | 100503.38 | 100.97 | 706.52 | 99.302
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 123398 | 22521 (0.18348) | 100223 | 654 | 179907.72 | 181490.91 | 3315.33 | -1583.18 | 100.880
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 297065 | 72301 (0.24399) | 224024 | 740 | 379924.22 | 366148.67 | 2323.08 | 13775.55 | 96.374
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 290158 | 106358 (0.36742) | 183113 | 687 | 596080.49 | 587323.11 | 1013.65 | 8757.38 | 98.531
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1235277 | 601931 (0.48806) | 631389 | 1957 | 918845.33 | 900710.87 | 2926.19 | 18134.46 | 98.026
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 706831 | 352304 (0.49959) | 352878 | 1649 | 700018.66 | 682213.98 | 6523.22 | 17804.68 | 97.457
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 410103 | 300728 (0.73493) | 108464 | 911 | 312185.80 | 304733.24 | 6172.92 | 7452.55 | 97.613
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 93933 | 74059 (0.79413) | 19199 | 675 | 66059.08 | 64524.95 | 1188.08 | 1534.13 | 97.678
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 87845 | 74655 (0.85729) | 12428 | 762 | 83698.03 | 82925.80 | 401.22 | 772.23 | 99.077
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 137743 | 125340 (0.91583) | 11519 | 884 | 77983.23 | 76831.73 | 1.96 | 1151.50 | 98.523
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 22764 | 20571 (0.97855) | 451 | 1742 | 25116.01 | 24694.96 | 241.17 | 421.04 | 98.324
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 4262264 | 1736992 | 2504348 | 20924 | 850330.97 | 835566.68 | 325.92 | 14764.29 | 98.264
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 123283 | 55566 | 67423 | 294 | 2744652.64 | 2684490.92 | 24406.21 | 60161.71 | 97.808
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 4385547 | 1792558 | 2571771 | 21218 | 3594983.62 | 3520057.61 | 24732.13 | 74926.01 | 97.916
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 74926.01183211 BTC (2.084%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 3617.00717500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 71309.00465711 BTC (1.984%)
Pending Liabilities: 2.57068290 BTC
Final SD Profit: 71306.43397421 BTC (1.983%)
Profit This Month: -296.97437041 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 14271041 : SatoshiDice Tx: 8036621 (56.3%)
Blockchain MB: 6247.1 : SatoshiDice MB: 3317.6 (53.1%)

FTWbitcoinFTW

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

13% of total april profit = 466BTC to public shareholders
37% of total april profit = 1329BTC to john doe the mysterious

Total paid on MPEX by S.dice = 1795BTC

dance4x

full member

Activity: 143

Merit: 100

I am trying to figure out what the dividend should be for April, but I am running into different numbers in different places. The Google Docs spreadsheet says the profits for shareholders for April was 466.8455515763, but the MPEX website says total dividends of 1`795.55981337 will be paid. What factor am I missing here and where does that 1`795.55981337 number come from?

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote

Total of 33 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-May-02 12:33pm (up to block 234232)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 137272 | 3 (0.00002) | 135071 | 2198 | 1733.01 | 3843.14 | 161.57 | -2110.13 | 221.761
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 12607 | 0 (0.00000) | 12040 | 567 | 172.37 | 0.45 | 22.84 | 171.91 | 0.262
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 14044 | 2 (0.00015) | 13545 | 497 | 195.12 | 320.30 | 17.49 | -125.18 | 164.157
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 25250 | 5 (0.00020) | 24718 | 527 | 603.36 | 433.87 | 13.37 | 169.49 | 71.909
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 24463 | 5 (0.00021) | 23974 | 484 | 866.97 | 606.56 | 22.19 | 260.40 | 69.964
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 30293 | 13 (0.00044) | 29838 | 442 | 1661.82 | 1830.93 | 1.53 | -169.10 | 110.176
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 30783 | 35 (0.00116) | 30227 | 521 | 2190.08 | 1740.41 | 116.99 | 449.66 | 79.468
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 22134 | 41 (0.00190) | 21578 | 515 | 2418.40 | 1578.09 | 48.56 | 840.30 | 65.254
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 27229 | 116 (0.00433) | 26694 | 419 | 6072.36 | 8661.99 | 13.29 | -2589.63 | 142.646
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 39634 | 311 (0.00801) | 38539 | 784 | 8455.39 | 6948.00 | 10.31 | 1507.38 | 82.173
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 148245 | 2287 (0.01549) | 145314 | 644 | 42999.28 | 37323.70 | 2.54 | 5675.58 | 86.801
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 26736 | 609 (0.02312) | 25733 | 394 | 7998.64 | 8589.34 | 15.21 | -590.69 | 107.385
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 95797 | 2940 (0.03083) | 92431 | 426 | 43532.35 | 38773.83 | 9.47 | 4758.51 | 89.069
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 31756 | 1445 (0.04624) | 29806 | 505 | 9875.41 | 10670.13 | 25.45 | -794.71 | 108.047
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 39316 | 2404 (0.06180) | 36495 | 417 | 7880.47 | 7676.58 | 31.44 | 203.89 | 97.413
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 56178 | 5092 (0.09152) | 50545 | 541 | 17146.72 | 18683.02 | 7.63 | -1536.29 | 108.960
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 213802 | 26177 (0.12279) | 187008 | 617 | 101064.96 | 100371.63 | 100.94 | 693.33 | 99.314
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 123033 | 22446 (0.18341) | 99933 | 654 | 179881.52 | 181454.68 | 3315.33 | -1573.16 | 100.875
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 296256 | 72090 (0.24395) | 223427 | 739 | 379868.41 | 366069.19 | 2323.08 | 13799.21 | 96.367
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 289578 | 106144 (0.36742) | 182748 | 686 | 595944.34 | 587173.27 | 1013.65 | 8771.07 | 98.528
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1231675 | 600196 (0.48807) | 629530 | 1949 | 918380.85 | 900219.55 | 2926.15 | 18161.30 | 98.022
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 704581 | 351180 (0.49959) | 351759 | 1642 | 699377.62 | 681500.47 | 6523.18 | 17877.14 | 97.444
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 409059 | 299986 (0.73499) | 108165 | 908 | 312074.88 | 304634.06 | 6172.90 | 7440.82 | 97.616
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 93666 | 73859 (0.79423) | 19135 | 672 | 66015.54 | 64476.70 | 1188.07 | 1538.84 | 97.669
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 87625 | 74478 (0.85740) | 12387 | 760 | 83658.82 | 82885.78 | 401.21 | 773.04 | 99.076
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 137292 | 124936 (0.91584) | 11481 | 875 | 77915.62 | 76764.90 | 1.91 | 1150.72 | 98.523
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 22685 | 20504 (0.97866) | 447 | 1734 | 25107.19 | 24686.16 | 241.16 | 421.03 | 98.323
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 4247773 | 1731777 | 2495173 | 20823 | 848919.12 | 834064.80 | 321.40 | 14854.31 | 98.250
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 123216 | 55527 | 67395 | 294 | 2744172.50 | 2683852.04 | 24406.21 | 60320.45 | 97.802
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 4370989 | 1787304 | 2562568 | 21117 | 3593091.63 | 3517916.85 | 24727.61 | 75174.77 | 97.908
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 75174.77270254 BTC (2.092%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 3601.71957500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 71573.05312754 BTC (1.992%)
Pending Liabilities: 0.04513489 BTC
Final SD Profit: 71573.00799265 BTC (1.992%)
Profit This Month: -30.40035197 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 14217696 : SatoshiDice Tx: 8009669 (56.3%)
Blockchain MB: 6222.5 : SatoshiDice MB: 3306.5 (53.1%)

DeaDTerra

donator

Activity: 1064

Merit: 1000

Quote from: BTCdude007 on May 02, 2013, 01:08:16 PM

Didn't SD start requiring 1 confirmation? Maybe that caused the betting dropoff as the fun was in knowing (almost) instantaneously whether you won or not...

The exact way the double spend protection system works is secret.
For bets above a certain amount and within certain variables 1 confirmation is needed, but for most transaction 0 confirmation should be fine.
//DeaDTerra

BTCdude007

sr. member

Activity: 686

Merit: 250

Didn't SD start requiring 1 confirmation? Maybe that caused the betting dropoff as the fun was in knowing (almost) instantaneously whether you won or not...

jking

newbie

Activity: 34

Merit: 0

Quote from: organofcorti on May 02, 2013, 10:26:35 AM

Quote from: jking on May 02, 2013, 09:14:23 AM

Quote from: organofcorti on May 02, 2013, 06:06:46 AM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on May 02, 2013, 03:17:15 AM

Quote from: organofcorti on May 02, 2013, 03:06:14 AM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on May 02, 2013, 02:56:43 AM

Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?

This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means.

Isn't minimum bet already very low? Something around 0.01 btc?

If yes, then is it not more likely that gamblers just reduce the amount of btc they bet, instead of playing less?

Not if they like to feel like they're just playing a game, maybe? Bettors might not miss a few cents here and there, but bets of a dollar each soon stack up.

Also, don't forget that when the exchange rate rockets, lots of people will tend to hoard while they wait for the exchange rate will level. This might reduce not just the amount they spend, but reduce spending events as well.

Do you think declining # of bets might have something to do with this too?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1632751

How do you mean?

Well, I was just hunting for events that happened around mid March 2013 that correlated with the decline in transactions. The fork was on March 11, but I don't think that explains it. The comment by dooglus would seem to indicate another event occurred around this time -- a change in the betting structure. Maybe this change explains the decline in # of transactions? I don't really know what it implies and defer to you guys on this. I don't know much about SatoshiDice... just curious.

organofcorti

donator

Activity: 2058

Merit: 1007

Poor impulse control.

Quote from: jking on May 02, 2013, 09:14:23 AM

Quote from: organofcorti on May 02, 2013, 06:06:46 AM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on May 02, 2013, 03:17:15 AM

Quote from: organofcorti on May 02, 2013, 03:06:14 AM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on May 02, 2013, 02:56:43 AM

Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?

This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means.

Isn't minimum bet already very low? Something around 0.01 btc?

If yes, then is it not more likely that gamblers just reduce the amount of btc they bet, instead of playing less?

Not if they like to feel like they're just playing a game, maybe? Bettors might not miss a few cents here and there, but bets of a dollar each soon stack up.

Also, don't forget that when the exchange rate rockets, lots of people will tend to hoard while they wait for the exchange rate will level. This might reduce not just the amount they spend, but reduce spending events as well.

Do you think declining # of bets might have something to do with this too?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1632751

How do you mean?

jking

newbie

Activity: 34

Merit: 0

Quote from: organofcorti on May 02, 2013, 06:06:46 AM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on May 02, 2013, 03:17:15 AM

Quote from: organofcorti on May 02, 2013, 03:06:14 AM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on May 02, 2013, 02:56:43 AM

Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?

This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means.

Isn't minimum bet already very low? Something around 0.01 btc?

If yes, then is it not more likely that gamblers just reduce the amount of btc they bet, instead of playing less?

Not if they like to feel like they're just playing a game, maybe? Bettors might not miss a few cents here and there, but bets of a dollar each soon stack up.

Also, don't forget that when the exchange rate rockets, lots of people will tend to hoard while they wait for the exchange rate will level. This might reduce not just the amount they spend, but reduce spending events as well.

Do you think declining # of bets might have something to do with this too?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1632751

organofcorti

donator

Activity: 2058

Merit: 1007

Poor impulse control.

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on May 02, 2013, 03:17:15 AM

Quote from: organofcorti on May 02, 2013, 03:06:14 AM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on May 02, 2013, 02:56:43 AM

Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?

This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means.

Isn't minimum bet already very low? Something around 0.01 btc?

If yes, then is it not more likely that gamblers just reduce the amount of btc they bet, instead of playing less?

Not if they like to feel like they're just playing a game, maybe? Bettors might not miss a few cents here and there, but bets of a dollar each soon stack up.

Also, don't forget that when the exchange rate rockets, lots of people will tend to hoard while they wait for the exchange rate will level. This might reduce not just the amount they spend, but reduce spending events as well.

RationalSpeculator

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!

Quote from: organofcorti on May 02, 2013, 03:06:14 AM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on May 02, 2013, 02:56:43 AM

Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?

This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means.

Isn't minimum bet already very low? Something around 0.01 btc?

If yes, then is it not more likely that gamblers just reduce the amount of btc they bet, instead of playing less?

organofcorti

donator

Activity: 2058

Merit: 1007

Poor impulse control.

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on May 02, 2013, 02:56:43 AM

Quote from: jking on May 02, 2013, 01:14:41 AM

I pulled the numbers off of SatoshiDice's public statments on Google docs:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aiec3-Eo_yO5dHB2dVdiaEltUHAtTWlBcFhXQVBYeGc#gid=12

Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?

Quote from: organofcorti on May 01, 2013, 10:32:57 PM

This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means.

RationalSpeculator

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!

Quote from: jking on May 02, 2013, 01:14:41 AM

I pulled the numbers off of SatoshiDice's public statments on Google docs:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aiec3-Eo_yO5dHB2dVdiaEltUHAtTWlBcFhXQVBYeGc#gid=12

Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?

jking

newbie

Activity: 34

Merit: 0

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on May 02, 2013, 12:58:24 AM

Quote from: jking on May 01, 2013, 10:27:19 PM

Quote from: furuknap on May 01, 2013, 09:59:33 PM

Quote from: jking on May 01, 2013, 09:58:11 PM

Just a quick question.

I noticed that SatoshiDice # of bets declined dramatically in the middle of March from around 20k-25k to 15k. Since then its been hovering 15k +/- 5k Can anyone tell me why this happened?

One reason may be that the price of BTC rose to much higher levels during that time. What people are willing to bet may be the same, but the amount of BTC that represents is much smaller with a high exchange rate.

.b

That could be. But the change in # of bets is discontinuous and sudden, not gradual. It seems odd to me that on March 15-17, all bettors suddenly decided to reduce # of bets. As BTC rises, you'd assume that bettors would keep the real value of their betting constant through a gradual combination of decreasing bet quantity and decreasing bet size.

Very good question. Thanks for bringing that up.

How have you been able to discover this?

Can that be seen on dooglus charts?

Or do you keep track of sdice in sheet with daily numbers, deducted from dooglus charts?

I pulled the numbers off of SatoshiDice's public statments on Google docs:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aiec3-Eo_yO5dHB2dVdiaEltUHAtTWlBcFhXQVBYeGc#gid=12

RationalSpeculator

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!

Quote from: jking on May 01, 2013, 10:27:19 PM

Quote from: furuknap on May 01, 2013, 09:59:33 PM

Quote from: jking on May 01, 2013, 09:58:11 PM

Just a quick question.

I noticed that SatoshiDice # of bets declined dramatically in the middle of March from around 20k-25k to 15k. Since then its been hovering 15k +/- 5k Can anyone tell me why this happened?

One reason may be that the price of BTC rose to much higher levels during that time. What people are willing to bet may be the same, but the amount of BTC that represents is much smaller with a high exchange rate.

.b

That could be. But the change in # of bets is discontinuous and sudden, not gradual. It seems odd to me that on March 15-17, all bettors suddenly decided to reduce # of bets. As BTC rises, you'd assume that bettors would keep the real value of their betting constant through a gradual combination of decreasing bet quantity and decreasing bet size.

Very good question. Thanks for bringing that up.

How have you been able to discover this?

Can that be seen on dooglus charts?

Or do you keep track of sdice in sheet with daily numbers, deducted from dooglus charts?

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: Dice on May 01, 2013, 04:13:33 AM

Do you have a list of the above chart from previous months?

Yes:

Quote

2012/04/30 -8.34303562
+1977.70657444 2012/05/31 1969.36353882
-2486.30832957 2012/06/30 -516.94479075
+2526.33884886 2012/07/31 2009.39405811
+7745.52421697 2012/08/31 9754.91827508
+2213.71305627 2012/09/30 11968.63133135
-1995.05289803 2012/10/31 9973.57843332
+6176.88060145 2012/11/30 16150.45903477
+17171.39821715 2012/12/31 33321.85725192
+20021.26392603 2013/01/31 53343.12117795
+13333.24627993 2013/02/28 66676.36745788
+1166.55910974 2013/03/31 67842.92656762
+3760.48177700 2013/04/30 71603.40834462

organofcorti

donator

Activity: 2058

Merit: 1007

Poor impulse control.

Quote from: jking on May 01, 2013, 10:27:19 PM

Quote from: furuknap on May 01, 2013, 09:59:33 PM

Quote from: jking on May 01, 2013, 09:58:11 PM

Just a quick question.

I noticed that SatoshiDice # of bets declined dramatically in the middle of March from around 20k-25k to 15k. Since then its been hovering 15k +/- 5k Can anyone tell me why this happened?

One reason may be that the price of BTC rose to much higher levels during that time. What people are willing to bet may be the same, but the amount of BTC that represents is much smaller with a high exchange rate.

.b

That could be. But the change in # of bets is discontinuous and sudden, not gradual. It seems odd to me that on March 15-17, all bettors suddenly decided to reduce # of bets. As BTC rises, you'd assume that bettors would keep the real value of their betting constant through a gradual combination of decreasing bet quantity and decreasing bet size.

This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means.

jking

newbie

Activity: 34

Merit: 0

Quote from: furuknap on May 01, 2013, 09:59:33 PM

Quote from: jking on May 01, 2013, 09:58:11 PM

Just a quick question.

I noticed that SatoshiDice # of bets declined dramatically in the middle of March from around 20k-25k to 15k. Since then its been hovering 15k +/- 5k Can anyone tell me why this happened?

One reason may be that the price of BTC rose to much higher levels during that time. What people are willing to bet may be the same, but the amount of BTC that represents is much smaller with a high exchange rate.

.b

That could be. But the change in # of bets is discontinuous and sudden, not gradual. It seems odd to me that on March 15-17, all bettors suddenly decided to reduce # of bets. As BTC rises, you'd assume that bettors would keep the real value of their betting constant through a gradual combination of decreasing bet quantity and decreasing bet size.

furuknap

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

http://coin.furuknap.net/

Quote from: jking on May 01, 2013, 09:58:11 PM

Just a quick question.

I noticed that SatoshiDice # of bets declined dramatically in the middle of March from around 20k-25k to 15k. Since then its been hovering 15k +/- 5k Can anyone tell me why this happened?

One reason may be that the price of BTC rose to much higher levels during that time. What people are willing to bet may be the same, but the amount of BTC that represents is much smaller with a high exchange rate.

.b

jking

newbie

Activity: 34

Merit: 0

Just a quick question.

I noticed that SatoshiDice # of bets declined dramatically in the middle of March from around 20k-25k to 15k. Since then its been hovering 15k +/- 5k Can anyone tell me why this happened?

Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 17. (Read 192889 times)