Pages:
Author

Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 17. (Read 192896 times)

legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Quote
Total of 118 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-May-03 11:46am (up to block 234372)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   137903 |       3 (0.00002) |  135655 |    2245 |    1741.97 |    3843.19 |   164.62 |  -2101.21 | 220.623
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    12629 |       0 (0.00000) |   12062 |     567 |     172.61 |       0.45 |    22.84 |    172.15 |   0.262
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    14058 |       2 (0.00015) |   13559 |     497 |     195.42 |     320.30 |    17.49 |   -124.88 | 163.906
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    25273 |       5 (0.00020) |   24740 |     528 |     603.80 |     433.87 |    14.62 |    169.93 |  71.856
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    24481 |       5 (0.00021) |   23992 |     484 |     867.55 |     606.57 |    22.19 |    260.98 |  69.917
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    30344 |      13 (0.00043) |   29887 |     444 |    1662.56 |    1830.93 |     1.55 |   -168.37 | 110.127
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    30813 |      35 (0.00116) |   30255 |     523 |    2190.94 |    1740.41 |   116.99 |    450.52 |  79.437
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    22179 |      41 (0.00189) |   21623 |     515 |    2419.99 |    1578.10 |    48.56 |    841.89 |  65.211
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    27243 |     116 (0.00432) |   26708 |     419 |    6074.08 |    8662.00 |    13.29 |  -2587.92 | 142.606
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    39728 |     312 (0.00801) |   38632 |     784 |    8456.54 |    6949.26 |    10.31 |   1507.28 |  82.176
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   149403 |    2301 (0.01547) |  146456 |     646 |   43049.98 |   37362.97 |     2.55 |   5687.01 |  86.790
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    26761 |     611 (0.02317) |   25756 |     394 |    7999.08 |    8590.20 |    15.21 |   -591.11 | 107.390
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    96219 |    2957 (0.03087) |   92836 |     426 |   43555.01 |   38808.36 |     9.47 |   4746.64 |  89.102
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    31806 |    1451 (0.04636) |   29850 |     505 |    9876.30 |   10672.80 |    25.45 |   -796.50 | 108.065
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    39416 |    2413 (0.06187) |   36586 |     417 |    7938.14 |    7869.23 |    31.44 |     68.90 |  99.132
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    56295 |    5101 (0.09149) |   50651 |     543 |   17151.03 |   18687.25 |     7.64 |  -1536.21 | 108.957
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   215879 |   26424 (0.12275) |  188835 |     620 |  101209.90 |  100503.38 |   100.97 |    706.52 |  99.302
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   123398 |   22521 (0.18348) |  100223 |     654 |  179907.72 |  181490.91 |  3315.33 |  -1583.18 | 100.880
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   297065 |   72301 (0.24399) |  224024 |     740 |  379924.22 |  366148.67 |  2323.08 |  13775.55 |  96.374
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   290158 |  106358 (0.36742) |  183113 |     687 |  596080.49 |  587323.11 |  1013.65 |   8757.38 |  98.531
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1235277 |  601931 (0.48806) |  631389 |    1957 |  918845.33 |  900710.87 |  2926.19 |  18134.46 |  98.026
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   706831 |  352304 (0.49959) |  352878 |    1649 |  700018.66 |  682213.98 |  6523.22 |  17804.68 |  97.457
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   410103 |  300728 (0.73493) |  108464 |     911 |  312185.80 |  304733.24 |  6172.92 |   7452.55 |  97.613
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    93933 |   74059 (0.79413) |   19199 |     675 |   66059.08 |   64524.95 |  1188.08 |   1534.13 |  97.678
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    87845 |   74655 (0.85729) |   12428 |     762 |   83698.03 |   82925.80 |   401.22 |    772.23 |  99.077
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   137743 |  125340 (0.91583) |   11519 |     884 |   77983.23 |   76831.73 |     1.96 |   1151.50 |  98.523
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    22764 |   20571 (0.97855) |     451 |    1742 |   25116.01 |   24694.96 |   241.17 |    421.04 |  98.324
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4262264 | 1736992           | 2504348 |   20924 |  850330.97 |  835566.68 |   325.92 |  14764.29 |  98.264
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   123283 |   55566           |   67423 |     294 | 2744652.64 | 2684490.92 | 24406.21 |  60161.71 |  97.808
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4385547 | 1792558           | 2571771 |   21218 | 3594983.62 | 3520057.61 | 24732.13 |  74926.01 |  97.916
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      74926.01183211 BTC (2.084%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3617.00717500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71309.00465711 BTC (1.984%)
Pending Liabilities:            2.57068290 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71306.43397421 BTC (1.983%)
Profit This Month:           -296.97437041 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 14271041  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  8036621  (56.3%)
Blockchain MB:   6247.1  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3317.6  (53.1%)



sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
13% of total april profit = 466BTC to public shareholders
37% of total april profit = 1329BTC to john doe the mysterious

Total paid on MPEX by S.dice = 1795BTC
full member
Activity: 143
Merit: 100
I am trying to figure out what the dividend should be for April, but I am running into different numbers in different places. The Google Docs spreadsheet says the profits for shareholders for April was 466.8455515763, but the MPEX website says total dividends of 1`795.55981337 will be paid. What factor am I missing here and where does that 1`795.55981337 number come from?
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Quote
Total of 33 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-May-02 12:33pm (up to block 234232)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   137272 |       3 (0.00002) |  135071 |    2198 |    1733.01 |    3843.14 |   161.57 |  -2110.13 | 221.761
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    12607 |       0 (0.00000) |   12040 |     567 |     172.37 |       0.45 |    22.84 |    171.91 |   0.262
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    14044 |       2 (0.00015) |   13545 |     497 |     195.12 |     320.30 |    17.49 |   -125.18 | 164.157
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    25250 |       5 (0.00020) |   24718 |     527 |     603.36 |     433.87 |    13.37 |    169.49 |  71.909
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    24463 |       5 (0.00021) |   23974 |     484 |     866.97 |     606.56 |    22.19 |    260.40 |  69.964
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    30293 |      13 (0.00044) |   29838 |     442 |    1661.82 |    1830.93 |     1.53 |   -169.10 | 110.176
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    30783 |      35 (0.00116) |   30227 |     521 |    2190.08 |    1740.41 |   116.99 |    449.66 |  79.468
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    22134 |      41 (0.00190) |   21578 |     515 |    2418.40 |    1578.09 |    48.56 |    840.30 |  65.254
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    27229 |     116 (0.00433) |   26694 |     419 |    6072.36 |    8661.99 |    13.29 |  -2589.63 | 142.646
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    39634 |     311 (0.00801) |   38539 |     784 |    8455.39 |    6948.00 |    10.31 |   1507.38 |  82.173
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   148245 |    2287 (0.01549) |  145314 |     644 |   42999.28 |   37323.70 |     2.54 |   5675.58 |  86.801
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    26736 |     609 (0.02312) |   25733 |     394 |    7998.64 |    8589.34 |    15.21 |   -590.69 | 107.385
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    95797 |    2940 (0.03083) |   92431 |     426 |   43532.35 |   38773.83 |     9.47 |   4758.51 |  89.069
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    31756 |    1445 (0.04624) |   29806 |     505 |    9875.41 |   10670.13 |    25.45 |   -794.71 | 108.047
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    39316 |    2404 (0.06180) |   36495 |     417 |    7880.47 |    7676.58 |    31.44 |    203.89 |  97.413
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    56178 |    5092 (0.09152) |   50545 |     541 |   17146.72 |   18683.02 |     7.63 |  -1536.29 | 108.960
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   213802 |   26177 (0.12279) |  187008 |     617 |  101064.96 |  100371.63 |   100.94 |    693.33 |  99.314
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   123033 |   22446 (0.18341) |   99933 |     654 |  179881.52 |  181454.68 |  3315.33 |  -1573.16 | 100.875
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   296256 |   72090 (0.24395) |  223427 |     739 |  379868.41 |  366069.19 |  2323.08 |  13799.21 |  96.367
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   289578 |  106144 (0.36742) |  182748 |     686 |  595944.34 |  587173.27 |  1013.65 |   8771.07 |  98.528
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1231675 |  600196 (0.48807) |  629530 |    1949 |  918380.85 |  900219.55 |  2926.15 |  18161.30 |  98.022
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   704581 |  351180 (0.49959) |  351759 |    1642 |  699377.62 |  681500.47 |  6523.18 |  17877.14 |  97.444
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   409059 |  299986 (0.73499) |  108165 |     908 |  312074.88 |  304634.06 |  6172.90 |   7440.82 |  97.616
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    93666 |   73859 (0.79423) |   19135 |     672 |   66015.54 |   64476.70 |  1188.07 |   1538.84 |  97.669
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    87625 |   74478 (0.85740) |   12387 |     760 |   83658.82 |   82885.78 |   401.21 |    773.04 |  99.076
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   137292 |  124936 (0.91584) |   11481 |     875 |   77915.62 |   76764.90 |     1.91 |   1150.72 |  98.523
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    22685 |   20504 (0.97866) |     447 |    1734 |   25107.19 |   24686.16 |   241.16 |    421.03 |  98.323
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4247773 | 1731777           | 2495173 |   20823 |  848919.12 |  834064.80 |   321.40 |  14854.31 |  98.250
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   123216 |   55527           |   67395 |     294 | 2744172.50 | 2683852.04 | 24406.21 |  60320.45 |  97.802
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4370989 | 1787304           | 2562568 |   21117 | 3593091.63 | 3517916.85 | 24727.61 |  75174.77 |  97.908
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      75174.77270254 BTC (2.092%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3601.71957500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71573.05312754 BTC (1.992%)
Pending Liabilities:            0.04513489 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71573.00799265 BTC (1.992%)
Profit This Month:            -30.40035197 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 14217696  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  8009669  (56.3%)
Blockchain MB:   6222.5  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3306.5  (53.1%)



donator
Activity: 1064
Merit: 1000
Didn't SD start requiring 1 confirmation? Maybe that caused the betting dropoff as the fun was in knowing (almost) instantaneously whether you won or not...
The exact way the double spend protection system works is secret.
For bets above a certain amount and within certain variables 1 confirmation is needed, but for most transaction 0 confirmation should be fine.
//DeaDTerra
sr. member
Activity: 686
Merit: 250
Didn't SD start requiring 1 confirmation? Maybe that caused the betting dropoff as the fun was in knowing (almost) instantaneously whether you won or not...
newbie
Activity: 34
Merit: 0
Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?
This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means.

Isn't minimum bet already very low? Something around 0.01 btc?

If yes, then is it not more likely that gamblers just reduce the amount of btc they bet, instead of playing less?

Not if they like to feel like they're just playing a game, maybe? Bettors might not miss a few cents here and there, but bets of a dollar each soon stack up.

Also, don't forget that when the exchange rate rockets, lots of people will tend to hoard while they wait for the exchange rate will level. This might reduce not just the amount they spend, but reduce spending events as well.


Do you think declining # of bets might have something to do with this too?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1632751

How do you mean?

Well, I was just hunting for events that happened around mid March 2013 that correlated with the decline in transactions. The fork was on March 11, but I don't think that explains it. The comment by dooglus would seem to indicate another event occurred around this time -- a change in the betting structure. Maybe this change explains the decline in # of transactions? I don't really know what it implies and defer to you guys on this. I don't know much about SatoshiDice... just curious.
donator
Activity: 2058
Merit: 1007
Poor impulse control.
Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?
This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means.

Isn't minimum bet already very low? Something around 0.01 btc?

If yes, then is it not more likely that gamblers just reduce the amount of btc they bet, instead of playing less?

Not if they like to feel like they're just playing a game, maybe? Bettors might not miss a few cents here and there, but bets of a dollar each soon stack up.

Also, don't forget that when the exchange rate rockets, lots of people will tend to hoard while they wait for the exchange rate will level. This might reduce not just the amount they spend, but reduce spending events as well.


Do you think declining # of bets might have something to do with this too?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1632751

How do you mean?
newbie
Activity: 34
Merit: 0
Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?
This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means.

Isn't minimum bet already very low? Something around 0.01 btc?

If yes, then is it not more likely that gamblers just reduce the amount of btc they bet, instead of playing less?

Not if they like to feel like they're just playing a game, maybe? Bettors might not miss a few cents here and there, but bets of a dollar each soon stack up.

Also, don't forget that when the exchange rate rockets, lots of people will tend to hoard while they wait for the exchange rate will level. This might reduce not just the amount they spend, but reduce spending events as well.


Do you think declining # of bets might have something to do with this too?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1632751
donator
Activity: 2058
Merit: 1007
Poor impulse control.
Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?
This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means.

Isn't minimum bet already very low? Something around 0.01 btc?

If yes, then is it not more likely that gamblers just reduce the amount of btc they bet, instead of playing less?

Not if they like to feel like they're just playing a game, maybe? Bettors might not miss a few cents here and there, but bets of a dollar each soon stack up.

Also, don't forget that when the exchange rate rockets, lots of people will tend to hoard while they wait for the exchange rate will level. This might reduce not just the amount they spend, but reduce spending events as well.


sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?
This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means.

Isn't minimum bet already very low? Something around 0.01 btc?

If yes, then is it not more likely that gamblers just reduce the amount of btc they bet, instead of playing less?
donator
Activity: 2058
Merit: 1007
Poor impulse control.
I pulled the numbers off of SatoshiDice's public statments on Google docs:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aiec3-Eo_yO5dHB2dVdiaEltUHAtTWlBcFhXQVBYeGc#gid=12

Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?


This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means.

sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
I pulled the numbers off of SatoshiDice's public statments on Google docs:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aiec3-Eo_yO5dHB2dVdiaEltUHAtTWlBcFhXQVBYeGc#gid=12

Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?
newbie
Activity: 34
Merit: 0
Just a quick question.

I noticed that SatoshiDice # of bets declined dramatically in the middle of March from around 20k-25k to 15k. Since then its been hovering 15k +/- 5k Can anyone tell me why this happened?

One reason may be that the price of BTC rose to much higher levels during that time. What people are willing to bet may be the same, but the amount of BTC that represents is much smaller with a high exchange rate.

.b

That could be. But the change in # of bets is discontinuous and sudden, not gradual. It seems odd to me that on March 15-17, all bettors suddenly decided to reduce # of bets. As BTC rises, you'd assume that bettors would keep the real value of their betting constant through a gradual combination of decreasing bet quantity and decreasing bet size.


Very good question. Thanks for bringing that up.

How have you been able to discover this?

Can that be seen on dooglus charts?

Or do you keep track of sdice in sheet with daily numbers, deducted from dooglus charts? 

I pulled the numbers off of SatoshiDice's public statments on Google docs:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aiec3-Eo_yO5dHB2dVdiaEltUHAtTWlBcFhXQVBYeGc#gid=12
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
Just a quick question.

I noticed that SatoshiDice # of bets declined dramatically in the middle of March from around 20k-25k to 15k. Since then its been hovering 15k +/- 5k Can anyone tell me why this happened?

One reason may be that the price of BTC rose to much higher levels during that time. What people are willing to bet may be the same, but the amount of BTC that represents is much smaller with a high exchange rate.

.b

That could be. But the change in # of bets is discontinuous and sudden, not gradual. It seems odd to me that on March 15-17, all bettors suddenly decided to reduce # of bets. As BTC rises, you'd assume that bettors would keep the real value of their betting constant through a gradual combination of decreasing bet quantity and decreasing bet size.


Very good question. Thanks for bringing that up.

How have you been able to discover this?

Can that be seen on dooglus charts?

Or do you keep track of sdice in sheet with daily numbers, deducted from dooglus charts? 
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Do you have a list of the above chart from previous months?

Yes:

Quote
                        2012/04/30    -8.34303562     
      +1977.70657444    2012/05/31  1969.36353882     
      -2486.30832957    2012/06/30  -516.94479075     
      +2526.33884886    2012/07/31  2009.39405811     
      +7745.52421697    2012/08/31  9754.91827508     
      +2213.71305627    2012/09/30 11968.63133135     
      -1995.05289803    2012/10/31  9973.57843332     
      +6176.88060145    2012/11/30 16150.45903477     
     +17171.39821715    2012/12/31 33321.85725192     
     +20021.26392603    2013/01/31 53343.12117795     
     +13333.24627993    2013/02/28 66676.36745788     
      +1166.55910974    2013/03/31 67842.92656762     
      +3760.48177700    2013/04/30 71603.40834462
donator
Activity: 2058
Merit: 1007
Poor impulse control.
Just a quick question.

I noticed that SatoshiDice # of bets declined dramatically in the middle of March from around 20k-25k to 15k. Since then its been hovering 15k +/- 5k Can anyone tell me why this happened?

One reason may be that the price of BTC rose to much higher levels during that time. What people are willing to bet may be the same, but the amount of BTC that represents is much smaller with a high exchange rate.

.b

That could be. But the change in # of bets is discontinuous and sudden, not gradual. It seems odd to me that on March 15-17, all bettors suddenly decided to reduce # of bets. As BTC rises, you'd assume that bettors would keep the real value of their betting constant through a gradual combination of decreasing bet quantity and decreasing bet size.
This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means.
newbie
Activity: 34
Merit: 0
Just a quick question.

I noticed that SatoshiDice # of bets declined dramatically in the middle of March from around 20k-25k to 15k. Since then its been hovering 15k +/- 5k Can anyone tell me why this happened?

One reason may be that the price of BTC rose to much higher levels during that time. What people are willing to bet may be the same, but the amount of BTC that represents is much smaller with a high exchange rate.

.b

That could be. But the change in # of bets is discontinuous and sudden, not gradual. It seems odd to me that on March 15-17, all bettors suddenly decided to reduce # of bets. As BTC rises, you'd assume that bettors would keep the real value of their betting constant through a gradual combination of decreasing bet quantity and decreasing bet size.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
http://coin.furuknap.net/
Just a quick question.

I noticed that SatoshiDice # of bets declined dramatically in the middle of March from around 20k-25k to 15k. Since then its been hovering 15k +/- 5k Can anyone tell me why this happened?

One reason may be that the price of BTC rose to much higher levels during that time. What people are willing to bet may be the same, but the amount of BTC that represents is much smaller with a high exchange rate.

.b
newbie
Activity: 34
Merit: 0
Just a quick question.

I noticed that SatoshiDice # of bets declined dramatically in the middle of March from around 20k-25k to 15k. Since then its been hovering 15k +/- 5k Can anyone tell me why this happened?
Pages:
Jump to: