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Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 36. (Read 192889 times)

legendary
Activity: 1302
Merit: 1008
February 25, 2013, 08:14:24 AM

Just wow!  Bet $0.60, win $38,400.

I hope he won that $38,400 before he had already bet that much in losses  Wink

You can examine his bets here: http://blockchain.info/fb/1catvhe
Not so much, may be 1-2 BTC total.
donator
Activity: 2058
Merit: 1007
Poor impulse control.
February 25, 2013, 12:11:33 AM

Just wow!  Bet $0.60, win $38,400.

I hope he won that $38,400 before he had already bet that much in losses  Wink

^ does not hold shares in SatoshiDice.
full member
Activity: 144
Merit: 100
February 25, 2013, 12:10:05 AM

Just wow!  Bet $0.60, win $38,400.

I hope he won that $38,400 before he had already bet that much in losses  Wink
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
February 24, 2013, 10:14:59 PM


Money in existence should not be confused with money flow.

By your logic we should have consumed all the water on the planet long before now. There is a lot of truth in your argument, but it does not come together for me.

The limit on the amount of BTC that could flow through SDICE in a month is very very large and it involves everyone betting everything over and over while the house cashes out coins as fast as they can to other folks that want to try their luck. >21m BTC bet in one month is possible, because winnings (and spent dividends) can be spent again every hour (month for dividends.)

I actually expect the dividends to go up again in the longer term, or at least enjoy a few big dividends a year based on a massively increased number of potential players, and like you will not be disappointed if the sdice growth lags the rest of the bitcoin economy as long as the delta is not too large.

If you want to boost it a lot, I was thinking you could modify a bitcoin checkout to do a side-bet on sdice at purchase to effectively give the buyer a double-or-nothing checkout experience. If any developer wants to boost business, PM me and we can chat about details.

I was actually agreeing with you, but maybe I misunderstood your statement.  You mention that SD "cashes out coins."  I was under the impression that the profits were reinvested and distributed as dividends.  Since Voorhees doesn't pay himself a salary, the only money that would be converted back into fiat would be whatever bets are paid out and cashed out by betters, and the miniscule amount paid to host the site.   As profitable as the site is, it can't accumulate all the bitcoins in the universe.  At a certain point, diminishing returns kicks in, but at that point, the value of bitcoin will also be increasing by a proportionate amount.  That is all I was saying.  Watching the sheer number of bitcoins profit decrease over time is deceptive, but it must happen as long as bitcoins are being adopted by the masses.

I realize we are agreeing on some point, I may have misunderstood the point you made about a limit on the number of bitcoins bet every month, but I was laying out an extreme scenario that would certainly exceed 21M coins/month betting, but by no means did I intend it to be a realistic case. Of course it would not suck in all the bitcoins, but it could cycle as many as folks are willing to spend, and many of those coins will reenter circulation.

ALL 100M shares receive dividends, so the shares that Eric and other private holders own must pay them handsomely every month. Dividends happen equally to all stockholders after the company management (usually a board of directors, but not in this case) after any expenses and reinvestment. ~BTC18,000 were distributed to private holders last month according to the public books (profit - MPEX shares = other dividends. The liquidity that the company has would be built up at the expense of ALL shareholders if it needs to rise, which is why there was no dividend for October and it was covered in November before profit calculations.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
February 24, 2013, 06:45:06 PM
Quote
especially considering each bitcoin bet could have bought so much more other things on average this month than it could have in Jan.
THIS

I know S.dice work in BTC, profits in BTC, shares in BTC, but it's relevant to put in parallel with the USD/BTC rise !

JAN = 20K @ 20$
FE = ~15k @ 30$



Finishing that thought with accurate math (including weighted average prices from bitcoincharts):

Code:
Jan. 1 Dividend =   0.00017206 @ $13.34 = $0.00229528/share
Feb. 1 Dividend =   0.00020007 @ $20.73 = $0.00414745/share
Dividend if Today = 0.00012643 @ $29.74 = $0.00376002/share
Estimateed Mar. 1 = 0.00014874 @ $33.00 = $0.00490845/share

So overall we are looking to see slightly more fiat based earnings this month, even if we don't hit the same BTC earnings.

Of course I would like to see the BTC value maintained, but I'll take modest fiat earnings growth over a slump any day.

EDIT: Added December earnings for comparison, WOW!

This should be expected too.  As an extreme example, if satoshidice took in 1 million bitcoins a month, obviously it would be limited very quickly by the number of bitcoins in existence, and it would start bringing in less and less each month.  The good news is, as this happens, bitcoins value increases in relation to fiat currencies.  Satoshidice plays an important role in the scarcity and hoarding of bitcoins to this end.  

I just hope people think about this when they start seeing SD's profits, denominated in bitcoins, "decreasing" each month.  They really aren't.  Thanks for pointing this out.

Money in existence should not be confused with money flow.

By your logic we should have consumed all the water on the planet long before now. There is a lot of truth in your argument, but it does not come together for me.

The limit on the amount of BTC that could flow through SDICE in a month is very very large and it involves everyone betting everything over and over while the house cashes out coins as fast as they can to other folks that want to try their luck. >21m BTC bet in one month is possible, because winnings (and spent dividends) can be spent again every hour (month for dividends.)

I actually expect the dividends to go up again in the longer term, or at least enjoy a few big dividends a year based on a massively increased number of potential players, and like you will not be disappointed if the sdice growth lags the rest of the bitcoin economy as long as the delta is not too large.

If you want to boost it a lot, I was thinking you could modify a bitcoin checkout to do a side-bet on sdice at purchase to effectively give the buyer a double-or-nothing checkout experience. If any developer wants to boost business, PM me and we can chat about details.

I was actually agreeing with you, but maybe I misunderstood your statement.  You mention that SD "cashes out coins."  I was under the impression that the profits were reinvested and distributed as dividends.  Since Voorhees doesn't pay himself a salary, the only money that would be converted back into fiat would be whatever bets are paid out and cashed out by betters, and the miniscule amount paid to host the site.   As profitable as the site is, it can't accumulate all the bitcoins in the universe.  At a certain point, diminishing returns kicks in, but at that point, the value of bitcoin will also be increasing by a proportionate amount.  That is all I was saying.  Watching the sheer number of bitcoins profit decrease over time is deceptive, but it must happen as long as bitcoins are being adopted by the masses.
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
February 24, 2013, 06:23:48 PM
Quote
especially considering each bitcoin bet could have bought so much more other things on average this month than it could have in Jan.
THIS

I know S.dice work in BTC, profits in BTC, shares in BTC, but it's relevant to put in parallel with the USD/BTC rise !

JAN = 20K @ 20$
FE = ~15k @ 30$



Finishing that thought with accurate math (including weighted average prices from bitcoincharts):

Code:
Jan. 1 Dividend =   0.00017206 @ $13.34 = $0.00229528/share
Feb. 1 Dividend =   0.00020007 @ $20.73 = $0.00414745/share
Dividend if Today = 0.00012643 @ $29.74 = $0.00376002/share
Estimateed Mar. 1 = 0.00014874 @ $33.00 = $0.00490845/share

So overall we are looking to see slightly more fiat based earnings this month, even if we don't hit the same BTC earnings.

Of course I would like to see the BTC value maintained, but I'll take modest fiat earnings growth over a slump any day.

EDIT: Added December earnings for comparison, WOW!

This should be expected too.  As an extreme example, if satoshidice took in 1 million bitcoins a month, obviously it would be limited very quickly by the number of bitcoins in existence, and it would start bringing in less and less each month.  The good news is, as this happens, bitcoins value increases in relation to fiat currencies.  Satoshidice plays an important role in the scarcity and hoarding of bitcoins to this end.  

I just hope people think about this when they start seeing SD's profits, denominated in bitcoins, "decreasing" each month.  They really aren't.  Thanks for pointing this out.

Money in existence should not be confused with money flow.

By your logic we should have consumed all the water on the planet long before now. There is a lot of truth in your argument, but it does not come together for me.

The limit on the amount of BTC that could flow through SDICE in a month is very very large and it involves everyone betting everything over and over while the house cashes out coins as fast as they can to other folks that want to try their luck. >21m BTC bet in one month is possible, because winnings (and spent dividends) can be spent again every hour (month for dividends.)

I actually expect the dividends to go up again in the longer term, or at least enjoy a few big dividends a year based on a massively increased number of potential players, and like you will not be disappointed if the sdice growth lags the rest of the bitcoin economy as long as the delta is not too large.

If you want to boost it a lot, I was thinking you could modify a bitcoin checkout to do a side-bet on sdice at purchase to effectively give the buyer a double-or-nothing checkout experience. If any developer wants to boost business, PM me and we can chat about details.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
February 24, 2013, 04:55:26 PM
Quote
especially considering each bitcoin bet could have bought so much more other things on average this month than it could have in Jan.
THIS

I know S.dice work in BTC, profits in BTC, shares in BTC, but it's relevant to put in parallel with the USD/BTC rise !

JAN = 20K @ 20$
FE = ~15k @ 30$



Finishing that thought with accurate math (including weighted average prices from bitcoincharts):

Code:
Jan. 1 Dividend =   0.00017206 @ $13.34 = $0.00229528/share
Feb. 1 Dividend =   0.00020007 @ $20.73 = $0.00414745/share
Dividend if Today = 0.00012643 @ $29.74 = $0.00376002/share
Estimateed Mar. 1 = 0.00014874 @ $33.00 = $0.00490845/share

So overall we are looking to see slightly more fiat based earnings this month, even if we don't hit the same BTC earnings.

Of course I would like to see the BTC value maintained, but I'll take modest fiat earnings growth over a slump any day.

EDIT: Added December earnings for comparison, WOW!

This should be expected too.  As an extreme example, if satoshidice took in 1 million bitcoins a month, obviously it would be limited very quickly by the number of bitcoins in existence, and it would start bringing in less and less each month.  The good news is, as this happens, bitcoins value increases in relation to fiat currencies.  Satoshidice plays an important role in the scarcity and hoarding of bitcoins to this end.  

I just hope people think about this when they start seeing SD's profits, denominated in bitcoins, "decreasing" each month.  They really aren't.  Thanks for pointing this out.
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
February 24, 2013, 03:38:56 PM
I'll add monthly profit, expected dividend, etc. to the report soon.

Someone hit 'lessthan 1' for the first time yesterday: http://www.satoshidice.com/full.php?tx=a874d43fb31c3a0785a6828006136c6d3a3cb79c3c19fe4c7caf770f42c6a3c7

Bet Amount: 0.02000000
Outcome: WIN
Payment: 1279.99950000

Just wow!  Bet $0.60, win $38,400.

Quote
Total of 98 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Feb-24 11:31am (up to block 222904)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    87651 |       1 (0.00001) |   86241 |    1409 |     986.68 |    1280.01 |   117.42 |   -293.33 | 129.730
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     4431 |       0 (0.00000) |    3921 |     510 |      74.91 |       0.01 |    18.54 |     74.89 |   0.019
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     6766 |       1 (0.00016) |    6334 |     431 |     102.14 |     159.98 |    11.48 |    -57.84 | 156.628
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     9416 |       4 (0.00045) |    8980 |     432 |     155.73 |     255.99 |    10.04 |   -100.25 | 164.379
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    11914 |       1 (0.00009) |   11487 |     426 |     402.25 |       4.77 |    22.05 |    397.47 |   1.188
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    14157 |       5 (0.00036) |   13754 |     398 |     798.96 |     733.71 |     1.38 |     65.24 |  91.834
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    16572 |      17 (0.00105) |   16119 |     436 |    1217.60 |     351.74 |    55.75 |    865.86 |  28.888
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    18035 |      33 (0.00188) |   17561 |     441 |    2223.30 |    1422.51 |    48.33 |    800.78 |  63.982
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    23100 |     104 (0.00458) |   22615 |     381 |    4438.88 |    7354.05 |    13.18 |  -2915.17 | 165.674
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    31680 |     250 (0.00807) |   30737 |     693 |    5615.32 |    5625.72 |    10.01 |    -10.39 | 100.185
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   105821 |    1631 (0.01548) |  103721 |     469 |   30085.65 |   25201.81 |     1.99 |   4883.83 |  83.767
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    23126 |     538 (0.02363) |   22234 |     354 |    7523.42 |    8066.80 |    15.08 |   -543.38 | 107.223
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    64730 |    2005 (0.03116) |   62334 |     391 |   31048.02 |   27581.82 |     9.34 |   3466.20 |  88.836
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    25982 |    1179 (0.04613) |   24379 |     424 |    9053.86 |    9937.03 |    25.14 |   -883.16 | 109.755
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    31707 |    1921 (0.06132) |   29406 |     380 |    7457.49 |    7304.67 |    31.32 |    152.82 |  97.951
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    42064 |    3861 (0.09271) |   37785 |     418 |   15733.22 |   17506.88 |     7.21 |  -1773.66 | 111.273
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   163432 |   20008 (0.12278) |  142950 |     474 |   84343.97 |   84138.62 |   100.36 |    205.34 |  99.757
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    80183 |   14662 (0.18403) |   65011 |     510 |  163373.23 |  165273.34 |  3314.82 |  -1900.11 | 101.163
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   213225 |   51846 (0.24375) |  160854 |     525 |  355777.05 |  341025.28 |  2056.31 |  14751.77 |  95.854
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   212654 |   78165 (0.36853) |  133933 |     556 |  569341.06 |  560916.32 |  1013.13 |   8424.73 |  98.520
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1041411 |  507535 (0.48806) |  532376 |    1500 |  840233.35 |  821830.26 |  2924.45 |  18403.08 |  97.810
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   525319 |  262024 (0.49972) |  262318 |     977 |  633812.46 |  619586.66 |  5720.72 |  14225.80 |  97.756
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   306361 |  224875 (0.73540) |   80911 |     575 |  288921.86 |  282003.32 |  5455.02 |   6918.53 |  97.605
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    67918 |   53595 (0.79444) |   13868 |     455 |   59060.09 |   57763.16 |  1187.29 |   1296.93 |  97.804
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    52091 |   44173 (0.85640) |    7407 |     511 |   71994.94 |   71546.70 |   400.39 |    448.23 |  99.377
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    79002 |   71949 (0.91641) |    6563 |     490 |   66794.86 |   66090.92 |     0.34 |    703.93 |  98.946
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    15131 |   13943 (0.97997) |     285 |     903 |   23485.59 |   23078.23 |   239.89 |    407.35 |  98.265
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3165683 | 1303922           | 1846581 |   15180 |  713473.15 |  700334.58 |   248.42 |  13138.56 |  98.159
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   108196 |   50404           |   57503 |     289 | 2560582.86 | 2505705.87 | 22562.70 |  54876.98 |  97.857
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3273879 | 1354326           | 1904084 |   15469 | 3274056.01 | 3206040.46 | 22811.12 |  68015.55 |  97.923
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      68015.55215423 BTC (2.077%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        2473.86667500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       65541.68547923 BTC (2.002%)
Pending Liabilities:           -6.77219389 BTC
Final SD Profit:            65548.45767312 BTC (2.002%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 10446658  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  6032263  (57.7%)
Blockchain MB:   4468.6  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2476.3  (55.4%)



sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
February 24, 2013, 01:45:14 PM
Quote
especially considering each bitcoin bet could have bought so much more other things on average this month than it could have in Jan.
THIS

I know S.dice work in BTC, profits in BTC, shares in BTC, but it's relevant to put in parallel with the USD/BTC rise !

JAN = 20K @ 20$
FE = ~15k @ 30$



Finishing that thought with accurate math (including weighted average prices from bitcoincharts):

Code:
Jan. 1 Dividend =   0.00017206 @ $13.34 = $0.00229528/share
Feb. 1 Dividend =   0.00020007 @ $20.73 = $0.00414745/share
Dividend if Today = 0.00012643 @ $29.74 = $0.00376002/share
Estimateed Mar. 1 = 0.00014874 @ $33.00 = $0.00490845/share

So overall we are looking to see slightly more fiat based earnings this month, even if we don't hit the same BTC earnings.

Of course I would like to see the BTC value maintained, but I'll take modest fiat earnings growth over a slump any day.

EDIT: Added December earnings for comparison, WOW!
legendary
Activity: 2478
Merit: 1362
February 24, 2013, 01:36:46 PM
So, 65782.98530102(feb 23) - 53139.67029635(jan 31) / 100M = 0.00012643 per share, not accounting for the next 5 days ? It looks too much to me.

Updated with better numbers...

FYI, this means we are at 63% of the January dividend right now, and that is without the whale (well, for most of the month at least.)

But we're 85% through the month - except this is a 28 day month. If this were a 31 day month like january we'd still be 77% through the month and under target.
Which target are you talking about?? December was a record earnings month, January did better... February is close to do better than December and without whales !
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
February 24, 2013, 01:32:51 PM
Quote
especially considering each bitcoin bet could have bought so much more other things on average this month than it could have in Jan.
THIS

I know S.dice work in BTC, profits in BTC, shares in BTC, but it's relevant to put in parallel with the USD/BTC rise !

JAN = ~20K @ ~20$
FEB = ~15k @ ~30$

legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1002
Bitcoin is new, makes sense to hodl.
February 24, 2013, 01:27:30 PM
So, avg profit per day of this month is 549.70934802913043 which is a bit lower than Jan's 640.8198732316129
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 506
February 24, 2013, 01:22:04 PM
So, 65782.98530102(feb 23) - 53139.67029635(jan 31) / 100M = 0.00012643 per share, not accounting for the next 5 days ? It looks too much to me.

Updated with better numbers...

FYI, this means we are at 63% of the January dividend right now, and that is without the whale (well, for most of the month at least.)

But we're 85% through the month - except this is a 28 day month. If this were a 31 day month like january we'd still be 77% through the month and under target.
It is not surprising to me that we are lower, and would be even if it were a 31 day month, given that one player that accounted for such a high proportion of last month's profits disappeared off the map (sorry, I can't find the link to what that proportion was).  I am content that growth in numbers of plays has not far off made up for loss of that large single profit source, especially considering each bitcoin bet could have bought so much more other things on average this month than it could have in Jan.
full member
Activity: 125
Merit: 100
February 24, 2013, 01:09:49 PM
So, 65782.98530102(feb 23) - 53139.67029635(jan 31) / 100M = 0.00012643 per share, not accounting for the next 5 days ? It looks too much to me.

Updated with better numbers...

FYI, this means we are at 63% of the January dividend right now, and that is without the whale (well, for most of the month at least.)

But we're 85% through the month - except this is a 28 day month. If this were a 31 day month like january we'd still be 77% through the month and under target.
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
February 24, 2013, 01:05:29 PM
So, 65782.98530102(feb 23) - 53139.67029635(jan 31) / 100M = 0.00012643 per share, not accounting for the next 5 days ? It looks too much to me.

Updated with better numbers...

FYI, this means we are at 63% of the January dividend right now, and that is without the whale (well, for most of the month at least.)
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
February 24, 2013, 01:03:03 PM
Quote
Divide by 100M, since that's how many shares there are.

yep, my bad !
full member
Activity: 125
Merit: 100
February 24, 2013, 12:28:56 PM
So, 65782.98530102(feb 23) - 53139.67029635(jan 31) / 10M = 0.00126433150047 per share, not accounting for the next 5 days ? It looks too much to me.

Divide by 100M, since that's how many shares there are.
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1002
Bitcoin is new, makes sense to hodl.
February 24, 2013, 12:25:20 PM
So, 65782.98530102(feb 23) - 53139.67029635(jan 31) / 10M = 0.00126433150047 per share, not accounting for the next 5 days ? It looks too much to me.
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
February 24, 2013, 12:04:33 PM
* 1) NO

* 2) NO

But both can be calculated very simply...

1) Final SD profit  X date minus Final SD profit  january 31

2) Repeats and divides by 10M EDIT : 100M


* Not that I know
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1002
Bitcoin is new, makes sense to hodl.
February 24, 2013, 11:57:48 AM
and the forecast of dividend per share
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