Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 37. (Read 192889 times)

Is there anywhere I can view SD profit for the month in a numerical form without having to read off a graph?

I found this transfer from one of the "new whale" addresses.  Looks like this coin may be passed around between the addresses.


This address has over 10,000 BTC from this network, is associated with a 'new whale' address but hasn't started betting... YET.

http://blockchain.info/address/17dmDKohWioPHVZT2uzXqwECLYpfCfm2ut

new whale address

http://blockchain.info/address/12Gsb2qQA8ycGWchDxZ3XwbDcT5jUUzTwX

I guess the increasing interest in bitcoin as a whole outweighs the effect of old players getting bored of the game.

+1

thanks!

Here's today's update, including the chart showing raw number of bets.  It's pretty much a straight line, oddly enough.

Quite a bit of action from some new addresses.  Most interesting is

http://blockchain.info/address/12Gsb2qQA8ycGWchDxZ3XwbDcT5jUUzTwX

who got the coins from

http://blockchain.info/address/1BaMK7jsCiMMkdNNjpuTE4JMSvvsPzKC85

and

http://blockchain.info/address/18L3npzAQ8c6JxwHfMmXksDXxCsrdM3Ytc

About 5,000 BTC left between the set of addresses.  And still 3,000 BTC in the original whale addresses, though they have been shifted between members of the 8 addresses.

Large profits may continue for another month, or more...

There will be soon...

Edit: ... or maybe not so soon.  Re-scanning the whole blockchain to add a new type of graph turns out to be really slow, and now I have to go out for a bit.  Today's charts will be delayed, but I'll get to them when I'm back home.

The price dropped very easily with some thousand of shares sold. 



But what we had also yesterday is that massive buy.

MPEx ‏@MPEx1
1`000`000 S.DICE @ 0.00639000BTC = 6`390.00000000BTC. 83 #trade #bitcoin #btc #stocks

So some floating shares below 0.006 are not revelant to me.

I was just wondering the same myself and came here to see if there was any news that could explain the drop in the last few days.  Seeing as it doesn't look as if there's anything substantive I'll stick with my stock holding for the time being.

I have another couple of possibilities for the low price to throw into the mix which are to do with the increase in the purchace price of Bitcoin relative to fiat.  I shouldn't have been but I was surprised the other day when they were trading higher when I calculated what the fiat value of my holding.  Whilst relative to my Bitcoin holding the value of shares were the same as they were a few weeks back I would not have gone out to buy that many GBP's worth of shares of anything!  Maybe others in a similar position (more than likely including some of those deciding to short Bitcoin at current prices) are reducing their exposure by reducing their positions?

Then there are reasons other than the retired whale, some of which I've seen before as possible explanations for any reduction in S.DICE profit growth for instance:  

• Less directly related to the BTC/USD ratio is even though the numbers of Bitcoin users are increasing somewhat in relation to the increase in price, the amount they're getting for their fiat is less than previous newcomers so they have fewer BTC to throw around as earlier adopters.
• We may have got to the stage where more early or recent adopters are beginning to believe in the exponential growth potential of BTC and may therefore be less inclined to treat it like monopoly money and spend less?
• Maybe long-term players through repeated play and experimentation with 'sophisitcated' staking plans etc. are by their losses beginning to understand probabilities better* and may decide to play occasionally for fun rather than trying to play as 'serious' means of making money?
  

* btw if this was the primary reason for the amount played per person going down over time I'd be happy to live with the reduced return on my S.Dice investment to have contributed to a more numerate Bitcoiner population from which I believe we'd all benefit in the longer term.

There used to be a player who lost thousands of dollars to satoshidice every day.  He hasn't played since Feb 5th.  He was single-handedly responsible for a large percentage of the site's profits, and his disappearance will have a significant effect on future dividends.

My guess is some players have bought at 0.0044 from the first dump just for speculation.

They want their money back.

Need for liquid assets, other investment opportunities, loss of interest, etc... or perhaps just foolish impatience. SD has the potential to be a Coca-Cola, generating dividends for a long time to come. Not to mention capital appreciation.

There's lots of cheap shares on mpex, any ideas why?

Yeah, 2 new whale addresses with about 5k total between them.  Looks good for s.dice.  Although it doesn't totally solve the problem of the missing 'main' whale who spent 37k out his 40k total coins on S.DICE already.

Volume picked up a little recently.  There were 25 bets of 100 BTC or more in the last 24 hours.  Since 'the whale' stopped playing on 5th Feb there have been an average of 1 such big bet per day.

See http://www.satoshidice.com/lookup.php?limit=100&min_bet=100 for the more recent 100 bets of 100 BTC or more.

Anyone notice the bet that got a lucky of zero on a less-than-8 bet? If you look at the details page (link below) for the bet theres a little 'easter egg' thrown in there for the lucky of zero. Satoshi's ghost does have a sense of humor.

http://satoshidice.com/full.php?tx=cbafd5c53d1c63dbe451a3342c4371e3be18cc616e5a747720142bb12c9ec4ec

Ha!  I had to read the bit about the leg several times to reassure myself you don't have a leg hanging up as a reminder...

Thanks for the info.