Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 37. (Read 192914 times)

The price dropped very easily with some thousand of shares sold. 



But what we had also yesterday is that massive buy.

MPEx ‏@MPEx1
1`000`000 S.DICE @ 0.00639000BTC = 6`390.00000000BTC. 83 #trade #bitcoin #btc #stocks

So some floating shares below 0.006 are not revelant to me.

I was just wondering the same myself and came here to see if there was any news that could explain the drop in the last few days.  Seeing as it doesn't look as if there's anything substantive I'll stick with my stock holding for the time being.

I have another couple of possibilities for the low price to throw into the mix which are to do with the increase in the purchace price of Bitcoin relative to fiat.  I shouldn't have been but I was surprised the other day when they were trading higher when I calculated what the fiat value of my holding.  Whilst relative to my Bitcoin holding the value of shares were the same as they were a few weeks back I would not have gone out to buy that many GBP's worth of shares of anything!  Maybe others in a similar position (more than likely including some of those deciding to short Bitcoin at current prices) are reducing their exposure by reducing their positions?

Then there are reasons other than the retired whale, some of which I've seen before as possible explanations for any reduction in S.DICE profit growth for instance:  

• Less directly related to the BTC/USD ratio is even though the numbers of Bitcoin users are increasing somewhat in relation to the increase in price, the amount they're getting for their fiat is less than previous newcomers so they have fewer BTC to throw around as earlier adopters.
• We may have got to the stage where more early or recent adopters are beginning to believe in the exponential growth potential of BTC and may therefore be less inclined to treat it like monopoly money and spend less?
• Maybe long-term players through repeated play and experimentation with 'sophisitcated' staking plans etc. are by their losses beginning to understand probabilities better* and may decide to play occasionally for fun rather than trying to play as 'serious' means of making money?
  

* btw if this was the primary reason for the amount played per person going down over time I'd be happy to live with the reduced return on my S.Dice investment to have contributed to a more numerate Bitcoiner population from which I believe we'd all benefit in the longer term.

There used to be a player who lost thousands of dollars to satoshidice every day.  He hasn't played since Feb 5th.  He was single-handedly responsible for a large percentage of the site's profits, and his disappearance will have a significant effect on future dividends.

My guess is some players have bought at 0.0044 from the first dump just for speculation.

They want their money back.

Need for liquid assets, other investment opportunities, loss of interest, etc... or perhaps just foolish impatience. SD has the potential to be a Coca-Cola, generating dividends for a long time to come. Not to mention capital appreciation.

There's lots of cheap shares on mpex, any ideas why?

Yeah, 2 new whale addresses with about 5k total between them.  Looks good for s.dice.  Although it doesn't totally solve the problem of the missing 'main' whale who spent 37k out his 40k total coins on S.DICE already.

Volume picked up a little recently.  There were 25 bets of 100 BTC or more in the last 24 hours.  Since 'the whale' stopped playing on 5th Feb there have been an average of 1 such big bet per day.

See http://www.satoshidice.com/lookup.php?limit=100&min_bet=100 for the more recent 100 bets of 100 BTC or more.

Anyone notice the bet that got a lucky of zero on a less-than-8 bet? If you look at the details page (link below) for the bet theres a little 'easter egg' thrown in there for the lucky of zero. Satoshi's ghost does have a sense of humor.

http://satoshidice.com/full.php?tx=cbafd5c53d1c63dbe451a3342c4371e3be18cc616e5a747720142bb12c9ec4ec

Ha!  I had to read the bit about the leg several times to reassure myself you don't have a leg hanging up as a reminder...

Thanks for the info.

It's a fibrous material that chokes the chain and rapidly brings it to a halt.  We have a pair that did exactly that and saved a leg hanging up at that home to remind not to get careless.  I'd recommend Stihl, Husqvarna or other reputable brand.  Also, seeing as you mentioned your feet you can also get chainsaw protective boots.  It can seem like a lot of money for occasional home use.  However, unfortunately it's those with least training often with amateur tools (that don't have the safety features of the pro-tools) who are in most need of the protective gear.  In my opinion your best investment would  be a half-day training course in chainsaw use.  However if you took that the likelihood is you'd end up wanting to spend on protection and the better tools too!

Edit: It's the protective trousers that are hanging up at home not the leg   I just read it but decided to leave it for comedic effect.

Thanks for the tips guys.  A couple of weeks ago I cut a small gouge in the sole of my shoe when my foot slipped while cutting wood and the chainsaw blade somehow made contact.  That scared me pretty badly.  They make pants that are chainsaw resistant?  What are they made of?

Anyways, on with the S.DICE show:

+1!

+.1BTC for my membership of the dooglus limb preservation society too

dooglus: Just sent you a 0.1BTC donation for your excellent Satoshidice analysis work so you can buy some chainsaw pants.

Any day you use a chainsaw incompetently and retain all your limbs is a good day

I'm a little late today.  I've been trying and failing to chop down dead trees for firewood.  I'm kind of incompetent with a chainsaw and ended up breaking it.  Ho hum.

Doooooooglus