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Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 35. (Read 192914 times)

dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 03, 2013, 05:57:30 PM
#922
This guy hit 'lessthan 1000' twice in a minute for 15 BTC each time:



See here and here.

Quote
Total of 45 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Mar-03 02:29pm (up to block 224111)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    93346 |       1 (0.00001) |   91898 |    1447 |    1070.66 |    1280.01 |   117.63 |   -209.35 | 119.554
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     5019 |       0 (0.00000) |    4507 |     512 |      83.08 |       0.01 |    18.55 |     83.06 |   0.018
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     7435 |       1 (0.00014) |    7001 |     433 |     111.77 |     159.99 |    11.48 |    -48.21 | 143.140
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    11152 |       5 (0.00047) |   10701 |     446 |     200.94 |     431.89 |    10.06 |   -230.94 | 214.930
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    12779 |       1 (0.00008) |   12349 |     429 |     429.54 |       4.78 |    22.05 |    424.75 |   1.114
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    15728 |       6 (0.00039) |   15324 |     398 |     869.51 |     813.67 |     1.38 |     55.83 |  93.578
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    17413 |      18 (0.00106) |   16946 |     449 |    1264.31 |     401.73 |    55.77 |    862.58 |  31.775
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    18814 |      35 (0.00191) |   18332 |     447 |    2268.60 |    1485.01 |    48.36 |    783.59 |  65.459
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    23752 |     105 (0.00449) |   23264 |     383 |    4500.98 |    7356.94 |    13.19 |  -2855.95 | 163.452
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    32646 |     264 (0.00826) |   31688 |     694 |    5650.40 |    5645.20 |    10.01 |      5.20 |  99.908
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   110506 |    1691 (0.01537) |  108340 |     475 |   32324.89 |   29203.09 |     2.00 |   3121.79 |  90.342
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    24036 |     558 (0.02356) |   23123 |     355 |    7541.71 |    8076.31 |    15.08 |   -534.60 | 107.089
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    68248 |    2110 (0.03110) |   65743 |     395 |   33332.58 |   29734.48 |     9.35 |   3598.09 |  89.205
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    27993 |    1271 (0.04611) |   26295 |     427 |    9088.24 |    9979.38 |    25.15 |   -891.14 | 109.805
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    33792 |    2062 (0.06172) |   31346 |     384 |    7543.53 |    7381.81 |    31.34 |    161.71 |  97.856
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    45031 |    4115 (0.09226) |   40485 |     431 |   15833.75 |   17613.39 |     7.23 |  -1779.64 | 111.240
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   172958 |   21204 (0.12294) |  151267 |     487 |   87024.80 |   86074.51 |   100.40 |    950.28 |  98.908
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    85946 |   15720 (0.18401) |   69708 |     518 |  166609.66 |  168445.50 |  3314.85 |  -1835.84 | 101.102
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   225583 |   54875 (0.24384) |  170170 |     538 |  359626.81 |  345605.18 |  2056.36 |  14021.62 |  96.101
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   225415 |   82747 (0.36802) |  142099 |     569 |  577676.42 |  569588.64 |  1013.18 |   8087.78 |  98.600
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1073481 |  523096 (0.48799) |  548839 |    1546 |  850139.20 |  831379.05 |  2924.59 |  18760.15 |  97.793
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   558385 |  278504 (0.49969) |  278852 |    1029 |  646865.83 |  632565.30 |  5720.91 |  14300.53 |  97.789
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   318179 |  233493 (0.73524) |   84082 |     604 |  293420.43 |  286054.26 |  5455.15 |   7366.17 |  97.490
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    70688 |   55734 (0.79392) |   14467 |     487 |   60198.47 |   58863.08 |  1187.44 |   1335.38 |  97.782
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    57303 |   48633 (0.85668) |    8136 |     534 |   75089.10 |   74494.54 |   400.44 |    594.55 |  99.208
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    86474 |   78765 (0.91632) |    7193 |     516 |   68721.36 |   67945.49 |     0.42 |    775.86 |  98.871
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    15695 |   14414 (0.98008) |     293 |     988 |   23743.81 |   23334.49 |   240.01 |    409.32 |  98.276
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3326773 | 1368069           | 1943072 |   15632 |  736821.91 |  722958.67 |   249.83 |  13863.24 |  98.119
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   111024 |   51359           |   59376 |     289 | 2594408.58 | 2540959.19 | 22562.70 |  53449.38 |  97.940
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3437797 | 1419428           | 2002448 |   15921 | 3331230.50 | 3263917.87 | 22812.53 |  67312.62 |  97.979
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      67312.62962683 BTC (2.021%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        2638.18737500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       64674.44225183 BTC (1.941%)
Pending Liabilities:            8.04749084 BTC
Final SD Profit:            64666.39476099 BTC (1.941%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 10881892  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  6334285  (58.2%)
Blockchain MB:   4660.1  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2599.5  (55.8%)



dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 02, 2013, 02:57:18 PM
#921
Quote
Total of 61 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Mar-02 11:51am (up to block 223938)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    92262 |       1 (0.00001) |   90821 |    1440 |    1055.64 |    1280.01 |   117.56 |   -224.37 | 121.254
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     4959 |       0 (0.00000) |    4447 |     512 |      82.15 |       0.01 |    18.55 |     82.13 |   0.018
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     7267 |       1 (0.00015) |    6834 |     432 |     109.50 |     159.99 |    11.48 |    -50.48 | 146.103
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    10346 |       4 (0.00040) |    9900 |     442 |     182.76 |     255.99 |    10.05 |    -73.23 | 140.069
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    12416 |       1 (0.00008) |   11989 |     426 |     418.04 |       4.78 |    22.05 |    413.25 |   1.145
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    15342 |       6 (0.00040) |   14938 |     398 |     848.25 |     813.67 |     1.38 |     34.57 |  95.924
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    17128 |      18 (0.00108) |   16662 |     448 |    1240.12 |     401.72 |    55.77 |    838.39 |  32.394
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    18593 |      35 (0.00193) |   18114 |     444 |    2246.36 |    1484.99 |    48.35 |    761.37 |  66.106
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    23620 |     105 (0.00452) |   23132 |     383 |    4474.28 |    7356.86 |    13.19 |  -2882.58 | 164.426
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    32434 |     263 (0.00829) |   31477 |     694 |    5633.43 |    5643.90 |    10.01 |    -10.46 | 100.186
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   109760 |    1685 (0.01542) |  107603 |     472 |   31858.49 |   27279.49 |     1.99 |   4579.00 |  85.627
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    23976 |     553 (0.02341) |   23069 |     354 |    7538.14 |    8074.11 |    15.08 |   -535.96 | 107.110
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    67911 |    2105 (0.03118) |   65414 |     392 |   32963.94 |   29419.37 |     9.34 |   3544.56 |  89.247
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    27860 |    1266 (0.04615) |   26168 |     426 |    9083.47 |    9978.29 |    25.15 |   -894.82 | 109.851
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    33693 |    2054 (0.06166) |   31257 |     382 |    7530.79 |    7345.93 |    31.34 |    184.85 |  97.545
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    44811 |    4099 (0.09236) |   40282 |     430 |   15816.71 |   17606.62 |     7.23 |  -1789.90 | 111.317
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   171117 |   20974 (0.12292) |  149660 |     483 |   86569.41 |   85762.18 |   100.38 |    807.22 |  99.068
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    85135 |   15577 (0.18409) |   69041 |     517 |  166172.58 |  167867.60 |  3314.85 |  -1695.01 | 101.020
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   224080 |   54502 (0.24381) |  169041 |     537 |  359139.19 |  345076.49 |  2056.35 |  14062.69 |  96.084
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   224005 |   82226 (0.36800) |  141213 |     566 |  576788.77 |  568841.81 |  1013.18 |   7946.96 |  98.622
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1068080 |  520463 (0.48799) |  546080 |    1537 |  848758.69 |  829998.12 |  2924.57 |  18760.57 |  97.790
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   554188 |  276383 (0.49963) |  276787 |    1018 |  645726.75 |  631390.19 |  5720.87 |  14336.55 |  97.780
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   316609 |  232368 (0.73533) |   83639 |     602 |  292864.28 |  285536.54 |  5455.14 |   7327.73 |  97.498
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    70384 |   55502 (0.79396) |   14403 |     479 |   60140.27 |   58807.70 |  1187.40 |   1332.57 |  97.784
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    56417 |   47870 (0.85652) |    8019 |     528 |   74842.97 |   74246.29 |   400.42 |    596.68 |  99.203
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    85802 |   78162 (0.91642) |    7129 |     511 |   68575.46 |   67805.49 |     0.41 |    769.97 |  98.877
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    15633 |   14362 (0.98021) |     290 |     981 |   23731.56 |   23323.54 |   240.01 |    408.02 |  98.281
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3303125 | 1359333           | 1928247 |   15545 |  733478.40 |  719636.56 |   249.52 |  13841.84 |  98.113
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   110703 |   51252           |   59162 |     289 | 2590913.72 | 2536125.23 | 22562.70 |  54788.48 |  97.885
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3413828 | 1410585           | 1987409 |   15834 | 3324392.13 | 3255761.80 | 22812.22 |  68630.32 |  97.936
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      68630.32895938 BTC (2.064%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        2614.13187500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       66016.19708438 BTC (1.986%)
Pending Liabilities:         -116.95391379 BTC
Final SD Profit:            66133.15099817 BTC (1.989%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 10823388  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  6290459  (58.1%)
Blockchain MB:   4634.3  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2581.7  (55.7%)



dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 01, 2013, 03:46:20 PM
#920
The two big wins you can see are:

  lessthan 1000; BET 15.00000000; WIN 959.52154000
  lessthan 2000; BET 15.00000000; WIN 479.79802000

Both of these were the same player.

Quote
Total of 45 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Mar-01 12:43pm (up to block 223797)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    91449 |       1 (0.00001) |   90013 |    1435 |    1044.79 |    1280.01 |   117.49 |   -235.22 | 122.514
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     4954 |       0 (0.00000) |    4442 |     512 |      82.06 |       0.01 |    18.55 |     82.04 |   0.018
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     7232 |       1 (0.00015) |    6799 |     432 |     108.88 |     159.99 |    11.48 |    -51.10 | 146.937
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     9823 |       4 (0.00043) |    9378 |     441 |     165.90 |     255.99 |    10.05 |    -90.09 | 154.305
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    12157 |       1 (0.00009) |   11730 |     426 |     409.04 |       4.78 |    22.05 |    404.25 |   1.170
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    14395 |       5 (0.00036) |   13992 |     398 |     805.60 |     733.72 |     1.38 |     71.87 |  91.077
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    16848 |      17 (0.00104) |   16386 |     445 |    1225.28 |     351.75 |    55.76 |    873.53 |  28.708
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    18338 |      33 (0.00184) |   17861 |     444 |    2229.21 |    1422.51 |    48.35 |    806.69 |  63.813
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    23405 |     104 (0.00452) |   22918 |     383 |    4449.36 |    7354.07 |    13.19 |  -2904.71 | 165.284
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    32331 |     260 (0.00822) |   31377 |     694 |    5627.04 |    5639.76 |    10.01 |    -12.71 | 100.226
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   108670 |    1672 (0.01545) |  106526 |     472 |   31397.68 |   27176.25 |     1.99 |   4221.43 |  86.555
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    23958 |     553 (0.02343) |   23051 |     354 |    7537.68 |    8074.11 |    15.08 |   -536.42 | 107.117
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    67597 |    2097 (0.03120) |   65108 |     392 |   32604.90 |   29414.65 |     9.34 |   3190.24 |  90.215
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    27799 |    1264 (0.04618) |   26110 |     425 |    9080.76 |    9975.94 |    25.14 |   -895.18 | 109.858
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    33532 |    2045 (0.06169) |   31105 |     382 |    7503.09 |    7333.84 |    31.34 |    169.24 |  97.744
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    44639 |    4089 (0.09249) |   40122 |     428 |   15807.78 |   17601.06 |     7.23 |  -1793.27 | 111.344
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   169330 |   20729 (0.12277) |  148121 |     480 |   86130.42 |   85502.07 |   100.37 |    628.35 |  99.270
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    84624 |   15477 (0.18402) |   68630 |     517 |  165792.75 |  167322.15 |  3314.85 |  -1529.40 | 100.922
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   222306 |   54097 (0.24393) |  167674 |     535 |  358612.40 |  344238.50 |  2056.35 |  14373.89 |  95.992
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   222301 |   81607 (0.36804) |  140129 |     565 |  575415.98 |  567448.09 |  1013.17 |   7967.89 |  98.615
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1064083 |  518558 (0.48803) |  544001 |    1524 |  847488.07 |  828814.46 |  2924.53 |  18673.60 |  97.797
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   551198 |  274929 (0.49970) |  275257 |    1012 |  644549.75 |  630105.29 |  5720.86 |  14444.46 |  97.759
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   315313 |  231406 (0.73529) |   83310 |     597 |  292253.30 |  285037.54 |  5455.11 |   7215.76 |  97.531
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    70019 |   55231 (0.79415) |   14316 |     472 |   59984.84 |   58654.42 |  1187.36 |   1330.42 |  97.782
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    55813 |   47342 (0.85623) |    7949 |     522 |   74570.14 |   73965.66 |   400.41 |    604.48 |  99.189
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    84809 |   77261 (0.91647) |    7042 |     506 |   68240.39 |   67458.44 |     0.40 |    781.95 |  98.854
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    15572 |   14316 (0.98015) |     290 |     966 |   23714.74 |   23306.67 |   239.99 |    408.07 |  98.279
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3282109 | 1351964           | 1914675 |   15470 |  730638.12 |  716828.28 |   249.25 |  13809.83 |  98.110
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   110386 |   51135           |   58962 |     289 | 2586193.83 | 2531803.58 | 22562.70 |  54390.24 |  97.897
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3392495 | 1403099           | 1973637 |   15759 | 3316831.95 | 3248631.86 | 22811.96 |  68200.08 |  97.944
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      68200.08508030 BTC (2.056%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        2592.74687500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       65607.33820530 BTC (1.978%)
Pending Liabilities:           13.91918045 BTC
Final SD Profit:            65593.41902485 BTC (1.978%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 10768108  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  6251621  (58.1%)
Blockchain MB:   4609.7  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2565.7  (55.7%)



dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 28, 2013, 01:36:17 PM
#919
Rough-and-ready dividend calculation:

Code:
>>> (66387.7113933 - 53343.121178) / 100e6
0.00013045

0.00013045 BTC per share.
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 28, 2013, 01:34:01 PM
#918
Quote
Total of 30 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Feb-28 10:31am (up to block 223623)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    90417 |       1 (0.00001) |   88985 |    1431 |    1029.43 |    1280.01 |   117.47 |   -250.58 | 124.342
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     4763 |       0 (0.00000) |    4251 |     512 |      79.78 |       0.01 |    18.55 |     79.77 |   0.019
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     7036 |       1 (0.00015) |    6603 |     432 |     106.03 |     159.98 |    11.48 |    -53.95 | 150.891
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     9763 |       4 (0.00043) |    9320 |     439 |     164.57 |     255.99 |    10.05 |    -91.41 | 155.546
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    12141 |       1 (0.00009) |   11714 |     426 |     408.51 |       4.78 |    22.05 |    403.72 |   1.171
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    14359 |       5 (0.00036) |   13956 |     398 |     804.31 |     733.72 |     1.38 |     70.59 |  91.223
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    16781 |      17 (0.00104) |   16320 |     444 |    1222.22 |     351.74 |    55.76 |    870.48 |  28.779
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    18252 |      33 (0.00185) |   17775 |     444 |    2227.18 |    1422.51 |    48.35 |    804.66 |  63.871
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    23313 |     104 (0.00454) |   22826 |     383 |    4445.51 |    7354.07 |    13.19 |  -2908.55 | 165.427
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    32197 |     256 (0.00813) |   31248 |     693 |    5624.94 |    5634.53 |    10.01 |     -9.58 | 100.170
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   107955 |    1660 (0.01544) |  105824 |     471 |   31049.89 |   26189.70 |     1.99 |   4860.18 |  84.347
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    23698 |     544 (0.02330) |   22800 |     354 |    7532.89 |    8069.80 |    15.08 |   -536.91 | 107.128
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    66947 |    2074 (0.03116) |   64481 |     392 |   32251.14 |   28731.58 |     9.34 |   3519.56 |  89.087
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    27265 |    1239 (0.04616) |   25601 |     425 |    9073.99 |    9969.96 |    25.14 |   -895.96 | 109.874
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    32974 |    2005 (0.06152) |   30588 |     381 |    7495.36 |    7326.61 |    31.33 |    168.75 |  97.749
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    43648 |    3998 (0.09250) |   39223 |     427 |   15764.72 |   17543.27 |     7.23 |  -1778.55 | 111.282
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   168343 |   20601 (0.12272) |  147264 |     478 |   85771.31 |   85194.16 |   100.37 |    577.15 |  99.327
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    83841 |   15342 (0.18412) |   67982 |     517 |  165148.73 |  166908.82 |  3314.85 |  -1760.08 | 101.066
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   219734 |   53453 (0.24385) |  165748 |     533 |  357894.88 |  343576.63 |  2056.33 |  14318.24 |  95.999
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   220241 |   80854 (0.36806) |  138824 |     563 |  573600.97 |  565434.93 |  1013.17 |   8166.04 |  98.576
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1057923 |  515528 (0.48800) |  540879 |    1516 |  845502.40 |  826635.35 |  2924.49 |  18867.05 |  97.769
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   547005 |  272842 (0.49971) |  273156 |    1007 |  642425.68 |  628191.70 |  5720.84 |  14233.97 |  97.784
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   313715 |  230257 (0.73535) |   82869 |     589 |  291687.94 |  284492.44 |  5455.07 |   7195.49 |  97.533
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    69542 |   54865 (0.79426) |   14212 |     465 |   59822.40 |   58500.84 |  1187.32 |   1321.56 |  97.791
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    54807 |   46474 (0.85606) |    7814 |     519 |   74214.30 |   73617.37 |   400.41 |    596.93 |  99.196
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    83497 |   76050 (0.91634) |    6943 |     504 |   68054.13 |   67277.33 |     0.39 |    776.79 |  98.859
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    15505 |   14264 (0.98007) |     290 |     951 |   23687.44 |   23279.27 |   239.97 |    408.16 |  98.277
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3255747 | 1341499           | 1898843 |   15405 |  726701.41 |  712954.28 |   249.04 |  13747.13 |  98.108
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   109915 |   50973           |   58653 |     289 | 2580389.39 | 2525182.98 | 22562.70 |  55206.41 |  97.861
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3365662 | 1392472           | 1957496 |   15694 | 3307090.80 | 3238137.26 | 22811.74 |  68953.54 |  97.915
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      68953.54406833 BTC (2.085%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        2565.83267500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       66387.71139333 BTC (2.007%)
Pending Liabilities:           13.18873709 BTC
Final SD Profit:            66374.52265624 BTC (2.007%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 10695215  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  6202897  (58.0%)
Blockchain MB:   4577.1  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2545.8  (55.6%)



dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 27, 2013, 11:26:35 AM
#917
Quote
Total of 69 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Feb-27 08:04am (up to block 223434)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    89447 |       1 (0.00001) |   88018 |    1428 |    1016.87 |    1280.01 |   117.47 |   -263.14 | 125.878
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     4738 |       0 (0.00000) |    4227 |     511 |      78.44 |       0.01 |    18.54 |     78.42 |   0.019
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     7020 |       1 (0.00015) |    6587 |     432 |     105.18 |     159.98 |    11.48 |    -54.80 | 152.101
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     9490 |       4 (0.00044) |    9051 |     435 |     157.60 |     255.99 |    10.05 |    -98.38 | 162.423
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    11960 |       1 (0.00009) |   11533 |     426 |     404.58 |       4.78 |    22.05 |    399.79 |   1.182
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    14231 |       5 (0.00036) |   13828 |     398 |     800.57 |     733.71 |     1.38 |     66.86 |  91.648
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    16736 |      17 (0.00104) |   16279 |     440 |    1221.06 |     351.74 |    55.75 |    869.31 |  28.807
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    18222 |      33 (0.00186) |   17745 |     444 |    2226.49 |    1422.51 |    48.35 |    803.98 |  63.890
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    23279 |     104 (0.00454) |   22793 |     382 |    4444.89 |    7354.07 |    13.19 |  -2909.18 | 165.450
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    32156 |     256 (0.00814) |   31207 |     693 |    5623.29 |    5634.53 |    10.01 |    -11.23 | 100.200
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   107405 |    1656 (0.01549) |  105278 |     471 |   30599.81 |   25865.56 |     1.99 |   4734.25 |  84.529
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    23632 |     544 (0.02337) |   22734 |     354 |    7531.93 |    8069.80 |    15.08 |   -537.86 | 107.141
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    66410 |    2060 (0.03120) |   63959 |     391 |   31742.61 |   28109.19 |     9.34 |   3633.42 |  88.553
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    27108 |    1231 (0.04613) |   25453 |     424 |    9070.91 |    9967.10 |    25.14 |   -896.19 | 109.880
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    32836 |    1997 (0.06153) |   30458 |     381 |    7488.87 |    7323.31 |    31.33 |    165.56 |  97.789
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    43425 |    3985 (0.09268) |   39014 |     426 |   15758.93 |   17529.54 |     7.23 |  -1770.60 | 111.236
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   167238 |   20475 (0.12278) |  146286 |     477 |   85175.38 |   84776.38 |   100.37 |    399.00 |  99.532
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    82385 |   15091 (0.18433) |   66777 |     517 |  164474.27 |  166361.49 |  3314.85 |  -1887.21 | 101.147
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   217375 |   52861 (0.24377) |  163984 |     530 |  357066.95 |  342816.65 |  2056.33 |  14250.29 |  96.009
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   218084 |   80092 (0.36820) |  137432 |     560 |  571880.09 |  563617.13 |  1013.15 |   8262.96 |  98.555
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1052442 |  512882 (0.48803) |  538051 |    1509 |  843751.54 |  824984.26 |  2924.47 |  18767.27 |  97.776
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   542158 |  270398 (0.49967) |  270759 |    1001 |  639927.92 |  625585.46 |  5720.82 |  14342.46 |  97.759
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   311196 |  228432 (0.73543) |   82180 |     584 |  291301.47 |  284123.75 |  5455.04 |   7177.72 |  97.536
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    69205 |   54600 (0.79425) |   14144 |     461 |   59648.38 |   58325.76 |  1187.31 |   1322.61 |  97.783
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    54101 |   45891 (0.85643) |    7693 |     517 |   73749.83 |   73191.67 |   400.41 |    558.16 |  99.243
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    82056 |   74731 (0.91630) |    6826 |     499 |   67609.51 |   66839.90 |     0.36 |    769.60 |  98.862
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    15443 |   14220 (0.98008) |     289 |     934 |   23671.35 |   23263.63 |   239.93 |    407.71 |  98.278
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3230528 | 1330777           | 1884415 |   15336 |  722943.45 |  709259.11 |   248.83 |  13684.34 |  98.107
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   109250 |   50791           |   58170 |     289 | 2573585.42 | 2518688.94 | 22562.70 |  54896.48 |  97.867
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3339778 | 1381568           | 1942585 |   15625 | 3296528.88 | 3227948.06 | 22811.53 |  68580.82 |  97.920
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      68580.82524027 BTC (2.080%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        2539.89037500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       66040.93486527 BTC (2.003%)
Pending Liabilities:         -133.48424925 BTC
Final SD Profit:            66174.41911452 BTC (2.007%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 10626988  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  6156349  (57.9%)
Blockchain MB:   4547.1  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2526.5  (55.6%)



wtfvanity
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
WTF???
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 27, 2013, 09:41:23 AM
#916
Quote from: wisard on February 27, 2013, 07:01:56 AM
Quote from: ThickAsThieves on February 26, 2013, 03:21:39 PM
Gonna be close! http://bitbet.us/bet/255/s-dice-profit-falls-in-february/

The recent 1279 BTC win may have swinged the outcome.

Swung?
wisard
sr. member
Activity: 272
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 27, 2013, 07:01:56 AM
#915
Quote from: ThickAsThieves on February 26, 2013, 03:21:39 PM
Gonna be close! http://bitbet.us/bet/255/s-dice-profit-falls-in-february/

The recent 1279 BTC win may have swinged the outcome.
ThickAsThieves
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 26, 2013, 03:21:39 PM
#914
Gonna be close! http://bitbet.us/bet/255/s-dice-profit-falls-in-february/
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 26, 2013, 03:10:59 PM
#913
Quote
Total of 21 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Feb-26 12:09pm (up to block 223265)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    89156 |       1 (0.00001) |   87733 |    1422 |    1010.73 |    1280.01 |   117.45 |   -269.28 | 126.643
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     4702 |       0 (0.00000) |    4191 |     511 |      77.83 |       0.01 |    18.54 |     77.81 |   0.019
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     6991 |       1 (0.00015) |    6558 |     432 |     104.75 |     159.98 |    11.48 |    -55.23 | 152.733
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     9468 |       4 (0.00044) |    9032 |     432 |     156.76 |     255.99 |    10.04 |    -99.22 | 163.292
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    11948 |       1 (0.00009) |   11521 |     426 |     403.35 |       4.77 |    22.05 |    398.57 |   1.185
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    14205 |       5 (0.00036) |   13802 |     398 |     800.11 |     733.71 |     1.38 |     66.40 |  91.701
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    16700 |      17 (0.00105) |   16244 |     439 |    1219.51 |     351.74 |    55.75 |    867.77 |  28.843
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    18204 |      33 (0.00186) |   17727 |     444 |    2226.08 |    1422.51 |    48.35 |    803.57 |  63.902
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    23252 |     104 (0.00455) |   22766 |     382 |    4441.61 |    7354.06 |    13.19 |  -2912.44 | 165.572
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    32126 |     256 (0.00814) |   31177 |     693 |    5622.71 |    5634.53 |    10.01 |    -11.81 | 100.210
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   107086 |    1652 (0.01549) |  104965 |     469 |   30114.31 |   25220.00 |     1.99 |   4894.31 |  83.748
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    23554 |     544 (0.02345) |   22656 |     354 |    7530.48 |    8069.80 |    15.08 |   -539.31 | 107.162
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    66013 |    2051 (0.03125) |   63571 |     391 |   31095.84 |   27781.42 |     9.34 |   3314.41 |  89.341
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    26966 |    1224 (0.04612) |   25318 |     424 |    9068.54 |    9960.70 |    25.14 |   -892.16 | 109.838
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    32653 |    1980 (0.06135) |   30292 |     381 |    7483.82 |    7316.24 |    31.33 |    167.58 |  97.761
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    43193 |    3962 (0.09263) |   38810 |     421 |   15752.21 |   17522.18 |     7.22 |  -1769.96 | 111.236
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   165448 |   20254 (0.12277) |  144718 |     476 |   84471.34 |   84218.99 |   100.37 |    252.34 |  99.701
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    81088 |   14827 (0.18402) |   65747 |     514 |  163504.98 |  165366.01 |  3314.84 |  -1861.03 | 101.138
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   215569 |   52394 (0.24365) |  162646 |     529 |  356110.20 |  341336.28 |  2056.32 |  14773.91 |  95.851
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   216542 |   79543 (0.36829) |  136439 |     560 |  570474.44 |  562070.41 |  1013.15 |   8404.02 |  98.527
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1049723 |  511548 (0.48802) |  536668 |    1507 |  842202.47 |  823681.18 |  2924.46 |  18521.28 |  97.801
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   537676 |  268150 (0.49964) |  268533 |     993 |  638079.05 |  623823.47 |  5720.79 |  14255.58 |  97.766
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   309742 |  227374 (0.73546) |   81786 |     582 |  291021.98 |  283825.68 |  5455.04 |   7196.29 |  97.527
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    68901 |   54367 (0.79434) |   14076 |     458 |   59541.49 |   58223.70 |  1187.30 |   1317.79 |  97.787
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    53521 |   45390 (0.85630) |    7617 |     514 |   73583.29 |   73023.15 |   400.40 |    560.13 |  99.239
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    80959 |   73744 (0.91648) |    6720 |     495 |   67404.25 |   66648.41 |     0.35 |    755.83 |  98.879
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    15349 |   14136 (0.98003) |     288 |     925 |   23628.18 |   23220.32 |   239.92 |    407.85 |  98.274
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3212074 | 1322918           | 1873873 |   15283 |  720087.23 |  706671.71 |   248.72 |  13415.51 |  98.137
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   108661 |   50644           |   57728 |     289 | 2567043.21 | 2511833.68 | 22562.70 |  55209.53 |  97.849
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3320735 | 1373562           | 1931601 |   15572 | 3287130.45 | 3218505.40 | 22811.42 |  68625.05 |  97.912
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      68625.05593372 BTC (2.088%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        2520.75257500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       66104.30335872 BTC (2.011%)
Pending Liabilities:           -0.40955779 BTC
Final SD Profit:            66104.71291651 BTC (2.011%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 10574836  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  6120831  (57.9%)
Blockchain MB:   4524.1  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2511.8  (55.5%)



dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 25, 2013, 01:36:26 PM
#912
Quote from: needbmw on February 25, 2013, 07:14:24 AM
xamine his bets here: http://blockchain.info/fb/1catvhe
Not so much, may be 1-2 BTC total.

It's probably easier to read here: http://www.satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=1catvhe since it's tabulated.

In summary, he has:

221 losing bets, betting 11.36 and getting 0.00817712 back, making a loss of 11.35182288
28 winning bets (other than the big win) betting 2.816 and getting 11.22561029 back, making a profit of 8.40961029
that's a net loss of 2.94221259 BTC if we don't count the lessthan 1 win.

Quote
Total of 22 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Feb-25 10:32am (up to block 223094)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    88261 |       1 (0.00001) |   86846 |    1414 |     994.21 |    1280.01 |   117.43 |   -285.80 | 128.747
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     4685 |       0 (0.00000) |    4175 |     510 |      77.50 |       0.01 |    18.54 |     77.48 |   0.019
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     6979 |       1 (0.00015) |    6547 |     431 |     104.41 |     159.98 |    11.48 |    -55.57 | 153.223
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     9448 |       4 (0.00044) |    9012 |     432 |     156.15 |     255.99 |    10.04 |    -99.83 | 163.937
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    11926 |       1 (0.00009) |   11499 |     426 |     402.48 |       4.77 |    22.05 |    397.70 |   1.187
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    14185 |       5 (0.00036) |   13782 |     398 |     799.37 |     733.71 |     1.38 |     65.66 |  91.786
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    16649 |      17 (0.00105) |   16196 |     436 |    1218.71 |     351.74 |    55.75 |    866.97 |  28.862
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    18149 |      33 (0.00186) |   17675 |     441 |    2225.30 |    1422.51 |    48.33 |    802.78 |  63.925
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    23185 |     104 (0.00456) |   22699 |     382 |    4440.01 |    7354.05 |    13.19 |  -2914.04 | 165.632
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    31923 |     254 (0.00813) |   30976 |     693 |    5618.81 |    5632.00 |    10.01 |    -13.19 | 100.235
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   106319 |    1641 (0.01550) |  104209 |     469 |   30093.80 |   25211.52 |     1.99 |   4882.28 |  83.776
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    23331 |     541 (0.02355) |   22436 |     354 |    7525.80 |    8068.09 |    15.08 |   -542.28 | 107.206
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    65203 |    2022 (0.03120) |   62790 |     391 |   31063.34 |   27599.48 |     9.34 |   3463.85 |  88.849
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    26492 |    1201 (0.04607) |   24867 |     424 |    9062.54 |    9954.56 |    25.14 |   -892.01 | 109.843
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    32173 |    1952 (0.06140) |   29841 |     380 |    7469.97 |    7311.17 |    31.32 |    158.79 |  97.874
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    42601 |    3904 (0.09255) |   38277 |     420 |   15742.34 |   17514.65 |     7.22 |  -1772.30 | 111.258
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   164327 |   20118 (0.12278) |  143735 |     474 |   84410.36 |   84172.23 |   100.36 |    238.13 |  99.718
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    80754 |   14767 (0.18403) |   65475 |     512 |  163434.93 |  165348.30 |  3314.83 |  -1913.37 | 101.171
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   214127 |   52061 (0.24373) |  161539 |     527 |  355893.95 |  341112.46 |  2056.31 |  14781.48 |  95.847
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   214324 |   78743 (0.36836) |  135024 |     557 |  569690.49 |  561254.60 |  1013.14 |   8435.88 |  98.519
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1045188 |  509375 (0.48805) |  534310 |    1503 |  841064.48 |  822615.53 |  2924.45 |  18448.95 |  97.806
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   533183 |  265916 (0.49966) |  266282 |     985 |  635839.13 |  621685.96 |  5720.76 |  14153.17 |  97.774
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   307516 |  225732 (0.73544) |   81204 |     580 |  289451.39 |  282448.89 |  5455.03 |   7002.49 |  97.581
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    68441 |   54011 (0.79447) |   13973 |     457 |   59365.89 |   58058.98 |  1187.30 |   1306.90 |  97.799
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    52741 |   44721 (0.85625) |    7508 |     512 |   72933.38 |   72377.73 |   400.40 |    555.64 |  99.238
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    79946 |   72814 (0.91643) |    6640 |     492 |   67174.53 |   66436.63 |     0.35 |    737.89 |  98.902
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    15252 |   14048 (0.97991) |     288 |     916 |   23591.87 |   23183.90 |   239.90 |    407.97 |  98.271
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3188907 | 1313476           | 1860204 |   15227 |  716545.23 |  703343.63 |   248.55 |  13201.60 |  98.158
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   108401 |   50511           |   57601 |     289 | 2563300.01 | 2508205.97 | 22562.70 |  55094.04 |  97.851
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3297308 | 1363987           | 1917805 |   15516 | 3279845.25 | 3211549.60 | 22811.25 |  68295.64 |  97.918
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      68295.64537768 BTC (2.082%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        2497.30337500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       65798.34200268 BTC (2.006%)
Pending Liabilities:           14.65489392 BTC
Final SD Profit:            65783.68710876 BTC (2.006%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 10508824  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  6076357  (57.8%)
Blockchain MB:   4495.9  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2494.2  (55.5%)



needbmw
legendary
Activity: 1302
Merit: 1008
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 25, 2013, 07:14:24 AM
#911
Quote from: BitcoinHoarder on February 24, 2013, 11:10:05 PM
Quote from: dooglus on February 24, 2013, 02:38:56 PM

Just wow!  Bet $0.60, win $38,400.

I hope he won that $38,400 before he had already bet that much in losses  Wink

You can examine his bets here: http://blockchain.info/fb/1catvhe
Not so much, may be 1-2 BTC total.
organofcorti
donator
Activity: 2058
Merit: 1007
Poor impulse control.
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 24, 2013, 11:11:33 PM
#910
Quote from: BitcoinHoarder on February 24, 2013, 11:10:05 PM
Quote from: dooglus on February 24, 2013, 02:38:56 PM

Just wow!  Bet $0.60, win $38,400.

I hope he won that $38,400 before he had already bet that much in losses  Wink

^ does not hold shares in SatoshiDice.
BitcoinHoarder
full member
Activity: 146
Merit: 103
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 24, 2013, 11:10:05 PM
#909
Quote from: dooglus on February 24, 2013, 02:38:56 PM

Just wow!  Bet $0.60, win $38,400.

I hope he won that $38,400 before he had already bet that much in losses  Wink
scrybe
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 24, 2013, 09:14:59 PM
#908
Quote from: pikeadz on February 24, 2013, 05:45:06 PM
Quote from: scrybe on February 24, 2013, 05:23:48 PM


Money in existence should not be confused with money flow.

By your logic we should have consumed all the water on the planet long before now. There is a lot of truth in your argument, but it does not come together for me.

The limit on the amount of BTC that could flow through SDICE in a month is very very large and it involves everyone betting everything over and over while the house cashes out coins as fast as they can to other folks that want to try their luck. >21m BTC bet in one month is possible, because winnings (and spent dividends) can be spent again every hour (month for dividends.)

I actually expect the dividends to go up again in the longer term, or at least enjoy a few big dividends a year based on a massively increased number of potential players, and like you will not be disappointed if the sdice growth lags the rest of the bitcoin economy as long as the delta is not too large.

If you want to boost it a lot, I was thinking you could modify a bitcoin checkout to do a side-bet on sdice at purchase to effectively give the buyer a double-or-nothing checkout experience. If any developer wants to boost business, PM me and we can chat about details.

I was actually agreeing with you, but maybe I misunderstood your statement.  You mention that SD "cashes out coins."  I was under the impression that the profits were reinvested and distributed as dividends.  Since Voorhees doesn't pay himself a salary, the only money that would be converted back into fiat would be whatever bets are paid out and cashed out by betters, and the miniscule amount paid to host the site.   As profitable as the site is, it can't accumulate all the bitcoins in the universe.  At a certain point, diminishing returns kicks in, but at that point, the value of bitcoin will also be increasing by a proportionate amount.  That is all I was saying.  Watching the sheer number of bitcoins profit decrease over time is deceptive, but it must happen as long as bitcoins are being adopted by the masses.

I realize we are agreeing on some point, I may have misunderstood the point you made about a limit on the number of bitcoins bet every month, but I was laying out an extreme scenario that would certainly exceed 21M coins/month betting, but by no means did I intend it to be a realistic case. Of course it would not suck in all the bitcoins, but it could cycle as many as folks are willing to spend, and many of those coins will reenter circulation.

ALL 100M shares receive dividends, so the shares that Eric and other private holders own must pay them handsomely every month. Dividends happen equally to all stockholders after the company management (usually a board of directors, but not in this case) after any expenses and reinvestment. ~BTC18,000 were distributed to private holders last month according to the public books (profit - MPEX shares = other dividends. The liquidity that the company has would be built up at the expense of ALL shareholders if it needs to rise, which is why there was no dividend for October and it was covered in November before profit calculations.
pikeadz
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 24, 2013, 05:45:06 PM
#907
Quote from: scrybe on February 24, 2013, 05:23:48 PM
Quote from: pikeadz on February 24, 2013, 03:55:26 PM
Quote from: scrybe on February 24, 2013, 12:45:14 PM
Quote from: FTWbitcoinFTW on February 24, 2013, 12:32:51 PM
Quote
especially considering each bitcoin bet could have bought so much more other things on average this month than it could have in Jan.
THIS

I know S.dice work in BTC, profits in BTC, shares in BTC, but it's relevant to put in parallel with the USD/BTC rise !

JAN = 20K @ 20$
FE = ~15k @ 30$



Finishing that thought with accurate math (including weighted average prices from bitcoincharts):

Code:
Jan. 1 Dividend =   0.00017206 @ $13.34 = $0.00229528/share
Feb. 1 Dividend =   0.00020007 @ $20.73 = $0.00414745/share
Dividend if Today = 0.00012643 @ $29.74 = $0.00376002/share
Estimateed Mar. 1 = 0.00014874 @ $33.00 = $0.00490845/share

So overall we are looking to see slightly more fiat based earnings this month, even if we don't hit the same BTC earnings.

Of course I would like to see the BTC value maintained, but I'll take modest fiat earnings growth over a slump any day.

EDIT: Added December earnings for comparison, WOW!

This should be expected too.  As an extreme example, if satoshidice took in 1 million bitcoins a month, obviously it would be limited very quickly by the number of bitcoins in existence, and it would start bringing in less and less each month.  The good news is, as this happens, bitcoins value increases in relation to fiat currencies.  Satoshidice plays an important role in the scarcity and hoarding of bitcoins to this end.  

I just hope people think about this when they start seeing SD's profits, denominated in bitcoins, "decreasing" each month.  They really aren't.  Thanks for pointing this out.

Money in existence should not be confused with money flow.

By your logic we should have consumed all the water on the planet long before now. There is a lot of truth in your argument, but it does not come together for me.

The limit on the amount of BTC that could flow through SDICE in a month is very very large and it involves everyone betting everything over and over while the house cashes out coins as fast as they can to other folks that want to try their luck. >21m BTC bet in one month is possible, because winnings (and spent dividends) can be spent again every hour (month for dividends.)

I actually expect the dividends to go up again in the longer term, or at least enjoy a few big dividends a year based on a massively increased number of potential players, and like you will not be disappointed if the sdice growth lags the rest of the bitcoin economy as long as the delta is not too large.

If you want to boost it a lot, I was thinking you could modify a bitcoin checkout to do a side-bet on sdice at purchase to effectively give the buyer a double-or-nothing checkout experience. If any developer wants to boost business, PM me and we can chat about details.

I was actually agreeing with you, but maybe I misunderstood your statement.  You mention that SD "cashes out coins."  I was under the impression that the profits were reinvested and distributed as dividends.  Since Voorhees doesn't pay himself a salary, the only money that would be converted back into fiat would be whatever bets are paid out and cashed out by betters, and the miniscule amount paid to host the site.   As profitable as the site is, it can't accumulate all the bitcoins in the universe.  At a certain point, diminishing returns kicks in, but at that point, the value of bitcoin will also be increasing by a proportionate amount.  That is all I was saying.  Watching the sheer number of bitcoins profit decrease over time is deceptive, but it must happen as long as bitcoins are being adopted by the masses.
scrybe
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 24, 2013, 05:23:48 PM
#906
Quote from: pikeadz on February 24, 2013, 03:55:26 PM
Quote from: scrybe on February 24, 2013, 12:45:14 PM
Quote from: FTWbitcoinFTW on February 24, 2013, 12:32:51 PM
Quote
especially considering each bitcoin bet could have bought so much more other things on average this month than it could have in Jan.
THIS

I know S.dice work in BTC, profits in BTC, shares in BTC, but it's relevant to put in parallel with the USD/BTC rise !

JAN = 20K @ 20$
FE = ~15k @ 30$



Finishing that thought with accurate math (including weighted average prices from bitcoincharts):

Code:
Jan. 1 Dividend =   0.00017206 @ $13.34 = $0.00229528/share
Feb. 1 Dividend =   0.00020007 @ $20.73 = $0.00414745/share
Dividend if Today = 0.00012643 @ $29.74 = $0.00376002/share
Estimateed Mar. 1 = 0.00014874 @ $33.00 = $0.00490845/share

So overall we are looking to see slightly more fiat based earnings this month, even if we don't hit the same BTC earnings.

Of course I would like to see the BTC value maintained, but I'll take modest fiat earnings growth over a slump any day.

EDIT: Added December earnings for comparison, WOW!

This should be expected too.  As an extreme example, if satoshidice took in 1 million bitcoins a month, obviously it would be limited very quickly by the number of bitcoins in existence, and it would start bringing in less and less each month.  The good news is, as this happens, bitcoins value increases in relation to fiat currencies.  Satoshidice plays an important role in the scarcity and hoarding of bitcoins to this end.  

I just hope people think about this when they start seeing SD's profits, denominated in bitcoins, "decreasing" each month.  They really aren't.  Thanks for pointing this out.

Money in existence should not be confused with money flow.

By your logic we should have consumed all the water on the planet long before now. There is a lot of truth in your argument, but it does not come together for me.

The limit on the amount of BTC that could flow through SDICE in a month is very very large and it involves everyone betting everything over and over while the house cashes out coins as fast as they can to other folks that want to try their luck. >21m BTC bet in one month is possible, because winnings (and spent dividends) can be spent again every hour (month for dividends.)

I actually expect the dividends to go up again in the longer term, or at least enjoy a few big dividends a year based on a massively increased number of potential players, and like you will not be disappointed if the sdice growth lags the rest of the bitcoin economy as long as the delta is not too large.

If you want to boost it a lot, I was thinking you could modify a bitcoin checkout to do a side-bet on sdice at purchase to effectively give the buyer a double-or-nothing checkout experience. If any developer wants to boost business, PM me and we can chat about details.
pikeadz
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 24, 2013, 03:55:26 PM
#905
Quote from: scrybe on February 24, 2013, 12:45:14 PM
Quote from: FTWbitcoinFTW on February 24, 2013, 12:32:51 PM
Quote
especially considering each bitcoin bet could have bought so much more other things on average this month than it could have in Jan.
THIS

I know S.dice work in BTC, profits in BTC, shares in BTC, but it's relevant to put in parallel with the USD/BTC rise !

JAN = 20K @ 20$
FE = ~15k @ 30$



Finishing that thought with accurate math (including weighted average prices from bitcoincharts):

Code:
Jan. 1 Dividend =   0.00017206 @ $13.34 = $0.00229528/share
Feb. 1 Dividend =   0.00020007 @ $20.73 = $0.00414745/share
Dividend if Today = 0.00012643 @ $29.74 = $0.00376002/share
Estimateed Mar. 1 = 0.00014874 @ $33.00 = $0.00490845/share

So overall we are looking to see slightly more fiat based earnings this month, even if we don't hit the same BTC earnings.

Of course I would like to see the BTC value maintained, but I'll take modest fiat earnings growth over a slump any day.

EDIT: Added December earnings for comparison, WOW!

This should be expected too.  As an extreme example, if satoshidice took in 1 million bitcoins a month, obviously it would be limited very quickly by the number of bitcoins in existence, and it would start bringing in less and less each month.  The good news is, as this happens, bitcoins value increases in relation to fiat currencies.  Satoshidice plays an important role in the scarcity and hoarding of bitcoins to this end.  

I just hope people think about this when they start seeing SD's profits, denominated in bitcoins, "decreasing" each month.  They really aren't.  Thanks for pointing this out.
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 24, 2013, 02:38:56 PM
#904
I'll add monthly profit, expected dividend, etc. to the report soon.

Someone hit 'lessthan 1' for the first time yesterday: http://www.satoshidice.com/full.php?tx=a874d43fb31c3a0785a6828006136c6d3a3cb79c3c19fe4c7caf770f42c6a3c7

Bet Amount: 0.02000000
Outcome: WIN
Payment: 1279.99950000

Just wow!  Bet $0.60, win $38,400.

Quote
Total of 98 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Feb-24 11:31am (up to block 222904)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    87651 |       1 (0.00001) |   86241 |    1409 |     986.68 |    1280.01 |   117.42 |   -293.33 | 129.730
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     4431 |       0 (0.00000) |    3921 |     510 |      74.91 |       0.01 |    18.54 |     74.89 |   0.019
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     6766 |       1 (0.00016) |    6334 |     431 |     102.14 |     159.98 |    11.48 |    -57.84 | 156.628
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     9416 |       4 (0.00045) |    8980 |     432 |     155.73 |     255.99 |    10.04 |   -100.25 | 164.379
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    11914 |       1 (0.00009) |   11487 |     426 |     402.25 |       4.77 |    22.05 |    397.47 |   1.188
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    14157 |       5 (0.00036) |   13754 |     398 |     798.96 |     733.71 |     1.38 |     65.24 |  91.834
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    16572 |      17 (0.00105) |   16119 |     436 |    1217.60 |     351.74 |    55.75 |    865.86 |  28.888
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    18035 |      33 (0.00188) |   17561 |     441 |    2223.30 |    1422.51 |    48.33 |    800.78 |  63.982
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    23100 |     104 (0.00458) |   22615 |     381 |    4438.88 |    7354.05 |    13.18 |  -2915.17 | 165.674
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    31680 |     250 (0.00807) |   30737 |     693 |    5615.32 |    5625.72 |    10.01 |    -10.39 | 100.185
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   105821 |    1631 (0.01548) |  103721 |     469 |   30085.65 |   25201.81 |     1.99 |   4883.83 |  83.767
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    23126 |     538 (0.02363) |   22234 |     354 |    7523.42 |    8066.80 |    15.08 |   -543.38 | 107.223
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    64730 |    2005 (0.03116) |   62334 |     391 |   31048.02 |   27581.82 |     9.34 |   3466.20 |  88.836
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    25982 |    1179 (0.04613) |   24379 |     424 |    9053.86 |    9937.03 |    25.14 |   -883.16 | 109.755
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    31707 |    1921 (0.06132) |   29406 |     380 |    7457.49 |    7304.67 |    31.32 |    152.82 |  97.951
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    42064 |    3861 (0.09271) |   37785 |     418 |   15733.22 |   17506.88 |     7.21 |  -1773.66 | 111.273
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   163432 |   20008 (0.12278) |  142950 |     474 |   84343.97 |   84138.62 |   100.36 |    205.34 |  99.757
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    80183 |   14662 (0.18403) |   65011 |     510 |  163373.23 |  165273.34 |  3314.82 |  -1900.11 | 101.163
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   213225 |   51846 (0.24375) |  160854 |     525 |  355777.05 |  341025.28 |  2056.31 |  14751.77 |  95.854
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   212654 |   78165 (0.36853) |  133933 |     556 |  569341.06 |  560916.32 |  1013.13 |   8424.73 |  98.520
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1041411 |  507535 (0.48806) |  532376 |    1500 |  840233.35 |  821830.26 |  2924.45 |  18403.08 |  97.810
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   525319 |  262024 (0.49972) |  262318 |     977 |  633812.46 |  619586.66 |  5720.72 |  14225.80 |  97.756
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   306361 |  224875 (0.73540) |   80911 |     575 |  288921.86 |  282003.32 |  5455.02 |   6918.53 |  97.605
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    67918 |   53595 (0.79444) |   13868 |     455 |   59060.09 |   57763.16 |  1187.29 |   1296.93 |  97.804
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    52091 |   44173 (0.85640) |    7407 |     511 |   71994.94 |   71546.70 |   400.39 |    448.23 |  99.377
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    79002 |   71949 (0.91641) |    6563 |     490 |   66794.86 |   66090.92 |     0.34 |    703.93 |  98.946
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    15131 |   13943 (0.97997) |     285 |     903 |   23485.59 |   23078.23 |   239.89 |    407.35 |  98.265
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3165683 | 1303922           | 1846581 |   15180 |  713473.15 |  700334.58 |   248.42 |  13138.56 |  98.159
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   108196 |   50404           |   57503 |     289 | 2560582.86 | 2505705.87 | 22562.70 |  54876.98 |  97.857
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3273879 | 1354326           | 1904084 |   15469 | 3274056.01 | 3206040.46 | 22811.12 |  68015.55 |  97.923
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      68015.55215423 BTC (2.077%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        2473.86667500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       65541.68547923 BTC (2.002%)
Pending Liabilities:           -6.77219389 BTC
Final SD Profit:            65548.45767312 BTC (2.002%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 10446658  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  6032263  (57.7%)
Blockchain MB:   4468.6  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2476.3  (55.4%)



scrybe
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 24, 2013, 12:45:14 PM
#903
Quote from: FTWbitcoinFTW on February 24, 2013, 12:32:51 PM
Quote
especially considering each bitcoin bet could have bought so much more other things on average this month than it could have in Jan.
THIS

I know S.dice work in BTC, profits in BTC, shares in BTC, but it's relevant to put in parallel with the USD/BTC rise !

JAN = 20K @ 20$
FE = ~15k @ 30$



Finishing that thought with accurate math (including weighted average prices from bitcoincharts):

Code:
Jan. 1 Dividend =   0.00017206 @ $13.34 = $0.00229528/share
Feb. 1 Dividend =   0.00020007 @ $20.73 = $0.00414745/share
Dividend if Today = 0.00012643 @ $29.74 = $0.00376002/share
Estimateed Mar. 1 = 0.00014874 @ $33.00 = $0.00490845/share

So overall we are looking to see slightly more fiat based earnings this month, even if we don't hit the same BTC earnings.

Of course I would like to see the BTC value maintained, but I'll take modest fiat earnings growth over a slump any day.

EDIT: Added December earnings for comparison, WOW!
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