Bitcoin Forum>Economy>Marketplace>Service Discussion
Pages:
Author

Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 34. (Read 192914 times)

dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 09, 2013, 12:12:47 AM
#942
Quote from: etotheipi on March 08, 2013, 08:46:12 PM
Dooglus, I should apologize that you got stuck with the original analysis script I wrote.  It was intended half as "sample armoryengine.py code" and half "Let's see how much information we can deduce about SD."  As such, I implemented the search on the python side which was much simpler but painfully slow.  If I'd done it "right", it could've been on the C++ side, where it's literally about 100x faster.  Oh well.  If it's a problem, I might be able to outsource some of the search code to C++ for you... this thread has become important enough...

Even though I started the thread, I have been watching with great interest, and appreciate that you took over when I had no more time.  I just sent you a donation for the value you have provided me (regardless of whether you think it's weird that I'd be donating to you for this Smiley).

Thanks a lot for the donation. Smiley

I modified the script so that it saves its state between runs, so it only needs to search the new blocks each time I run it.

The vast majority of the time it takes it loading the blockchain files, which is all done in C++ anyway.

I guess if there was some way of just loading the newest bits of the blockchain that would speed it up a lot, but it's really not an issue at the moment to load the blockchain into your script once a day.

All I do at the moment to load the blockchain is:

   TheBDM.setBlocking(True)
   TheBDM.setOnlineMode(True)
etotheipi
legendary
Activity: 1428
Merit: 1093
Core Armory Developer
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 08, 2013, 08:46:12 PM
#941
Quote from: dooglus on March 08, 2013, 04:19:46 PM
Yes, but I use the Armory code to load the blockchain to produce the reports.  It loads the blockchain that the bitcoin-qt client writes to disk.

Dooglus, I should apologize that you got stuck with the original analysis script I wrote.  It was intended half as "sample armoryengine.py code" and half "Let's see how much information we can deduce about SD."  As such, I implemented the search on the python side which was much simpler but painfully slow.  If I'd done it "right", it could've been on the C++ side, where it's literally about 100x faster.  Oh well.  If it's a problem, I might be able to outsource some of the search code to C++ for you... this thread has become important enough...

Even though I started the thread, I have been watching with great interest, and appreciate that you took over when I had no more time.  I just sent you a donation for the value you have provided me (regardless of whether you think it's weird that I'd be donating to you for this Smiley).
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 08, 2013, 04:19:46 PM
#940
Quote from: kgo on March 08, 2013, 10:28:58 AM
Did you go to 0.8.0 yet?

Yes, but I use the Armory code to load the blockchain to produce the reports.  It loads the blockchain that the bitcoin-qt client writes to disk.

Quote from: misterbigg on March 08, 2013, 11:07:07 AM
I would be interested in seeing a graph comparing the revenue against the volume of SD transactions over time. Is it possible that an SD conspirator is running a bot to inflate the numbers? Would such a graph reveal it if it were true?

I don't understand.  Revenue=profits and volume=total amount bet?  If so, that's basically comparing the black and red lines in the monthly chart.  I probably missed your point.

Quote
Total of 18 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Mar-08 01:03pm (up to block 224888)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    96734 |       1 (0.00001) |   95220 |    1513 |    1113.74 |    1280.05 |   120.24 |   -166.30 | 114.932
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     5102 |       0 (0.00000) |    4584 |     518 |      85.40 |       0.01 |    18.66 |     85.39 |   0.019
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     7552 |       1 (0.00014) |    7100 |     451 |     113.84 |     159.99 |    11.90 |    -46.14 | 140.535
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    11451 |       5 (0.00045) |   10993 |     453 |     209.26 |     431.90 |    10.07 |   -222.63 | 206.392
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    13180 |       1 (0.00008) |   12745 |     434 |     442.25 |       4.79 |    22.06 |    437.46 |   1.083
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    16179 |       6 (0.00038) |   15774 |     399 |     896.63 |     813.68 |     1.38 |     82.94 |  90.749
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    17890 |      18 (0.00103) |   17411 |     461 |    1309.99 |     401.78 |    55.81 |    908.21 |  30.671
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    19197 |      36 (0.00192) |   18708 |     453 |    2311.92 |    1547.56 |    48.37 |    764.36 |  66.938
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    24008 |     105 (0.00444) |   23519 |     384 |    4552.28 |    7357.14 |    13.20 |  -2804.86 | 161.614
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    33000 |     265 (0.00820) |   32038 |     697 |    5668.39 |    5647.12 |    10.01 |     21.26 |  99.625
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   114553 |    1747 (0.01532) |  112304 |     502 |   35491.65 |   30818.50 |     2.04 |   4673.15 |  86.833
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    24340 |     562 (0.02343) |   23423 |     355 |    7631.14 |    8099.76 |    15.08 |   -468.62 | 106.141
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    71612 |    2218 (0.03114) |   68998 |     396 |   36437.90 |   33176.75 |     9.36 |   3261.14 |  91.050
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    28492 |    1290 (0.04597) |   26771 |     431 |    9178.28 |    9984.66 |    25.17 |   -806.37 | 108.786
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    34319 |    2091 (0.06163) |   31838 |     390 |    7592.45 |    7416.84 |    31.34 |    175.60 |  97.687
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    45779 |    4190 (0.09241) |   41152 |     437 |   15863.82 |   17650.67 |     7.26 |  -1786.85 | 111.264
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   177418 |   21719 (0.12276) |  155202 |     497 |   90040.09 |   88669.37 |   100.44 |   1370.71 |  98.478
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    90254 |   16453 (0.18336) |   73276 |     525 |  169121.48 |  170885.82 |  3314.87 |  -1764.34 | 101.043
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   235983 |   57421 (0.24389) |  178014 |     548 |  363847.09 |  350121.84 |  2322.39 |  13725.24 |  96.228
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   236716 |   86930 (0.36813) |  149209 |     577 |  581484.20 |  573253.46 |  1013.20 |   8230.74 |  98.585
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1096911 |  534527 (0.48801) |  560795 |    1589 |  859031.18 |  841630.11 |  2924.74 |  17401.06 |  97.974
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   580281 |  289448 (0.49973) |  289758 |    1075 |  655284.39 |  639810.14 |  6521.05 |  15474.25 |  97.639
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   327022 |  239946 (0.73512) |   86457 |     619 |  296336.20 |  289001.42 |  5455.23 |   7334.78 |  97.525
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    72584 |   57207 (0.79370) |   14869 |     508 |   60577.65 |   59230.57 |  1187.51 |   1347.07 |  97.776
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    60109 |   51000 (0.85637) |    8554 |     555 |   76287.95 |   75690.43 |   400.49 |    597.51 |  99.217
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    91833 |   83660 (0.91634) |    7638 |     535 |   69758.29 |   68982.72 |     0.47 |    775.57 |  98.888
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    16155 |   14794 (0.97986) |     304 |    1057 |   23848.50 |   23438.06 |   240.14 |    410.44 |  98.279
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3435543 | 1413750           | 2005726 |   16067 |  753481.47 |  739386.13 |   253.90 |  14095.34 |  98.129
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   113111 |   51891           |   60928 |     292 | 2621034.59 | 2566119.12 | 23628.70 |  54915.47 |  97.905
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3548654 | 1465641           | 2066654 |   16359 | 3374516.07 | 3305505.26 | 23882.60 |  69010.81 |  97.955
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      69010.81729732 BTC (2.045%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        2749.36487500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       66261.45242232 BTC (1.964%)
Pending Liabilities:            1.33325756 BTC
Final SD Profit:            66260.11916476 BTC (1.964%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 11187987  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  6537278  (58.4%)
Blockchain MB:   4798.3  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2684.1  (55.9%)



misterbigg
legendary
Activity: 1064
Merit: 1001
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 08, 2013, 11:07:07 AM
#939
I would be interested in seeing a graph comparing the revenue against the volume of SD transactions over time. Is it possible that an SD conspirator is running a bot to inflate the numbers? Would such a graph reveal it if it were true?
kgo
hero member
Activity: 548
Merit: 500
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 08, 2013, 10:28:58 AM
#938
Quote from: dooglus on March 07, 2013, 10:43:04 PM
Quote from: Severian on March 07, 2013, 10:13:33 PM
Those are damn high odds. Thanks for answering my question and for the always well-written explanations. Sent you a little something. Wish it was more.

Thank you.

I think I'll keep posting the graphs for free at the moment.  It's not much work (for me - the laptop always complains, spinning its fan extra fast for half an hour as it loads up the blockchain) to generate the report.  It takes me maybe 5 or 10 minutes each day.

Did you go to 0.8.0 yet?
k
sr. member
Activity: 451
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 08, 2013, 08:23:23 AM
#937
Quote from: dooglus on March 07, 2013, 10:43:04 PM

I think I'll keep posting the graphs for free at the moment.  It's not much work (for me - the laptop always complains, spinning its fan extra fast for half an hour as it loads up the blockchain) to generate the report.  It takes me maybe 5 or 10 minutes each day.

you could even experiment with something simple like post the daily graphs as a pdf or something to CoinDL and see how many would pay a small fee. And maybe post a delayed weekly graph for free on this forum.
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 07, 2013, 10:43:04 PM
#936
Quote from: Severian on March 07, 2013, 10:13:33 PM
Those are damn high odds. Thanks for answering my question and for the always well-written explanations. Sent you a little something. Wish it was more.

Thank you.

I think I'll keep posting the graphs for free at the moment.  It's not much work (for me - the laptop always complains, spinning its fan extra fast for half an hour as it loads up the blockchain) to generate the report.  It takes me maybe 5 or 10 minutes each day.
Severian
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 07, 2013, 10:13:33 PM
#935
Quote from: dooglus on March 07, 2013, 02:06:20 AM
So the odds are 4293.967296 to 1 against of winning two "lessthan 1000" bets in a row.

Those are damn high odds. Thanks for answering my question and for the always well-written explanations. Sent you a little something. Wish it was more.
Carnth
hero member
Activity: 634
Merit: 500
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 07, 2013, 05:37:19 PM
#934
Quote from: organofcorti on March 07, 2013, 05:31:33 PM
You should find some way to charge for this service, dooglus. People aren't reading this out of interest now, your posts help inform their share trading strategies. I imagine it takes a fair bit of time every day to do this.

I'd be happy knowing you were being recompensed for your efforts in this series of posts, and not have to worry that you need to inexpertly chainsaw things to make a living. Wink

Dooglus appreciates donations large and small for keeping this topic updated. You can find the donation address in his sig.

Hint... it's:    1Doog7asLrYah3yeUppBVj8nUYnFkmXm2N
organofcorti
donator
Activity: 2058
Merit: 1007
Poor impulse control.
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 07, 2013, 05:31:33 PM
#933
You should find some way to charge for this service, dooglus. People aren't reading this out of interest now, your posts help inform their share trading strategies. I imagine it takes a fair bit of time every day to do this.

I'd be happy knowing you were being recompensed for your efforts in this series of posts, and not have to worry that you need to inexpertly chainsaw things to make a living. Wink



dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 07, 2013, 05:06:43 PM
#932
Quote
Total of 30 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Mar-07 02:02pm (up to block 224740)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    96069 |       1 (0.00001) |   94562 |    1506 |    1105.52 |    1280.01 |   120.10 |   -174.49 | 115.784
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     5087 |       0 (0.00000) |    4570 |     517 |      85.04 |       0.01 |    18.65 |     85.02 |   0.018
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     7536 |       1 (0.00014) |    7089 |     446 |     113.43 |     159.99 |    11.89 |    -46.55 | 141.038
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    11401 |       5 (0.00046) |   10944 |     452 |     208.08 |     431.89 |    10.06 |   -223.80 | 207.552
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    13150 |       1 (0.00008) |   12716 |     433 |     441.59 |       4.78 |    22.06 |    436.81 |   1.084
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    16155 |       6 (0.00038) |   15750 |     399 |     895.80 |     813.68 |     1.38 |     82.12 |  90.833
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    17868 |      18 (0.00103) |   17390 |     460 |    1308.92 |     401.77 |    55.80 |    907.14 |  30.695
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    19159 |      36 (0.00192) |   18672 |     451 |    2311.13 |    1547.55 |    48.37 |    763.57 |  66.961
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    23990 |     105 (0.00445) |   23501 |     384 |    4551.99 |    7357.14 |    13.20 |  -2805.14 | 161.625
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    32948 |     265 (0.00822) |   31987 |     696 |    5666.12 |    5647.11 |    10.01 |     19.00 |  99.665
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   113884 |    1739 (0.01534) |  111650 |     495 |   35062.19 |   30167.78 |     2.03 |   4894.40 |  86.041
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    24292 |     562 (0.02348) |   23375 |     355 |    7629.93 |    8099.76 |    15.08 |   -469.82 | 106.158
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    70858 |    2194 (0.03114) |   68268 |     396 |   35859.73 |   33000.69 |     9.36 |   2859.03 |  92.027
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    28464 |    1289 (0.04598) |   26745 |     430 |    9176.63 |    9984.44 |    25.17 |   -807.81 | 108.803
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    34262 |    2085 (0.06155) |   31788 |     389 |    7569.29 |    7390.39 |    31.34 |    178.90 |  97.636
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    45698 |    4188 (0.09253) |   41073 |     437 |   15858.18 |   17650.00 |     7.26 |  -1791.82 | 111.299
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   176867 |   21646 (0.12273) |  154726 |     495 |   89226.79 |   88028.80 |   100.44 |   1197.98 |  98.657
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    89665 |   16356 (0.18349) |   72784 |     525 |  168430.09 |  170254.15 |  3314.87 |  -1824.05 | 101.083
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   234753 |   57130 (0.24393) |  177078 |     545 |  363260.80 |  349446.36 |  2322.38 |  13814.44 |  96.197
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   234902 |   86255 (0.36810) |  148072 |     575 |  580840.40 |  572533.97 |  1013.20 |   8306.42 |  98.570
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1092928 |  532565 (0.48798) |  558791 |    1572 |  857760.63 |  840354.93 |  2924.69 |  17405.70 |  97.971
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   574872 |  286780 (0.49978) |  287030 |    1062 |  654520.87 |  639085.39 |  6521.01 |  15435.47 |  97.642
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   324904 |  238394 (0.73513) |   85896 |     614 |  294843.01 |  287512.44 |  5455.21 |   7330.57 |  97.514
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    72250 |   56951 (0.79379) |   14795 |     504 |   60501.81 |   59162.71 |  1187.51 |   1339.09 |  97.787
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    59411 |   50409 (0.85639) |    8453 |     549 |   76112.06 |   75514.64 |   400.48 |    597.42 |  99.215
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    90512 |   82453 (0.91635) |    7527 |     532 |   69587.46 |   68814.65 |     0.46 |    772.80 |  98.889
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    16045 |   14709 (0.97988) |     302 |    1034 |   23819.17 |   23408.62 |   240.10 |    410.54 |  98.276
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3415351 | 1404392           | 1994998 |   15961 |  750750.33 |  736734.56 |   253.54 |  14015.77 |  98.133
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   112579 |   51751           |   60536 |     292 | 2615996.46 | 2561319.23 | 23628.70 |  54677.22 |  97.910
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3527930 | 1456143           | 2055534 |   16253 | 3366746.79 | 3298053.79 | 23882.24 |  68693.00 |  97.960
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      68693.00227944 BTC (2.040%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        2728.60027500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       65964.40200444 BTC (1.959%)
Pending Liabilities:            3.14585099 BTC
Final SD Profit:            65961.25615345 BTC (1.959%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 11129935  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  6499398  (58.4%)
Blockchain MB:   4772.4  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2667.7  (55.9%)



dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 07, 2013, 02:06:20 AM
#931
Quote from: Severian on March 07, 2013, 01:36:28 AM
Quote from: dooglus on March 03, 2013, 05:57:30 PM
This guy hit 'lessthan 1000' twice in a minute for 15 BTC each time:

What are the odds, please? You're much better at this stuff than I am.

It depends how many times you make the bet in that minute...  If you look at the screenshot I posted you'll see he bet 15 BTC on "lessthan 1000" three times just in the area covered by the screenshot, and won the 1st and 3rd bets.  There were lots more attempts where he lost.  Here's a list of all 32 times that address bet 15 BTC on lessthan 1000, with the result:

Quote
Sat Mar  2 04:55:00 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92550000
Sat Mar  2 07:35:21 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92550000
Sat Mar  2 09:11:23 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92550000
Sat Mar  2 13:01:48 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92550000
Sat Mar  2 16:59:48 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92550000
Sat Mar  2 17:07:59 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92550000
Sat Mar  2 17:23:39 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92550000
Sat Mar  2 17:27:30 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92550000
Sat Mar  2 17:27:30 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92550000
Sat Mar  2 18:10:48 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92550000
Sat Mar  2 18:10:48 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92550000
Sat Mar  2 18:52:05 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92550000
Sat Mar  2 18:52:05 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92550000
Sat Mar  2 19:21:47 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92550000
Sat Mar  2 20:22:07 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 WIN    944.52154000
Sat Mar  2 20:23:11 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 WIN    944.52154000
Sat Mar  2 20:32:09 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92550000
Sat Mar  2 20:32:09 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92550000
Sat Mar  2 20:35:10 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92550000
Sat Mar  2 20:35:10 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92550000
Sat Mar  2 20:35:10 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92550000
Sat Mar  2 21:31:29 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92550000
Sat Mar  2 21:31:29 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92550000
Sat Mar  2 21:31:29 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92550000
Sun Mar  3 03:46:06 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92550000
Sun Mar  3 03:46:06 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92550000
Sun Mar  3 04:08:33 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92550000
Sun Mar  3 04:08:33 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92550000
Sun Mar  3 04:46:38 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92550000
Sun Mar  3 05:00:02 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92550000
Sun Mar  3 05:23:37 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92550000
Sun Mar  3 06:36:01 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92550000
Sun Mar  3 06:45:24 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92550000
Sun Mar  3 07:54:18 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92550000
Mon Mar  4 18:05:24 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92550000
Tue Mar  5 19:33:22 2013 <1000  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92550000

But let's work out the odds of winning twice out of two bets.

There are 65536 numbers.  1000 of them win.  So it's a 1000/65536 probability of winning each bet.  That's a probability of 0.0152587890625 or 1 in 65.536.

For 2 in a row, you have to square that, so it's a probability of 0.0002328306 or 1 in 4294.967296.

So the odds are 4293.967296 to 1 against of winning two "lessthan 1000" bets in a row.
Severian
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 07, 2013, 01:36:28 AM
#930
Quote from: dooglus on March 03, 2013, 05:57:30 PM
This guy hit 'lessthan 1000' twice in a minute for 15 BTC each time:

What are the odds, please? You're much better at this stuff than I am.
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 07, 2013, 01:28:45 AM
#929
Quote from: ThickAsThieves on March 07, 2013, 12:38:34 AM
Who shot the Dooglus?

I forgot to let the neighbours' dog out to pee as well today...

Quote
Total of 4 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Mar-06 10:21pm (up to block 224630)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    95419 |       1 (0.00001) |   93915 |    1503 |    1098.32 |    1280.01 |   119.96 |   -181.69 | 116.543
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     5077 |       0 (0.00000) |    4561 |     516 |      84.77 |       0.01 |    18.65 |     84.76 |   0.018
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     7492 |       1 (0.00014) |    7046 |     445 |     112.91 |     159.99 |    11.89 |    -47.07 | 141.687
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    11394 |       5 (0.00046) |   10937 |     452 |     207.91 |     431.89 |    10.06 |   -223.98 | 207.730
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    13141 |       1 (0.00008) |   12707 |     433 |     441.49 |       4.78 |    22.06 |    436.71 |   1.084
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    16144 |       6 (0.00038) |   15739 |     399 |     895.52 |     813.68 |     1.38 |     81.84 |  90.861
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    17852 |      18 (0.00103) |   17374 |     460 |    1308.72 |     401.77 |    55.80 |    906.94 |  30.700
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    19140 |      36 (0.00193) |   18653 |     451 |    2310.80 |    1547.55 |    48.37 |    763.24 |  66.970
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    23973 |     105 (0.00445) |   23484 |     384 |    4551.82 |    7357.14 |    13.20 |  -2805.32 | 161.631
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    32911 |     264 (0.00819) |   31951 |     696 |    5665.18 |    5645.24 |    10.01 |     19.94 |  99.648
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   112845 |    1729 (0.01539) |  110623 |     493 |   33975.71 |   29506.27 |     2.03 |   4469.43 |  86.845
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    24238 |     561 (0.02349) |   23322 |     355 |    7629.15 |    8099.33 |    15.08 |   -470.17 | 106.163
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    70026 |    2168 (0.03114) |   67462 |     396 |   34953.54 |   31210.48 |     9.36 |   3743.06 |  89.291
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    28395 |    1285 (0.04595) |   26680 |     430 |    9123.93 |    9983.32 |    25.17 |   -859.38 | 109.419
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    34158 |    2082 (0.06165) |   31687 |     389 |    7565.40 |    7385.25 |    31.34 |    180.14 |  97.619
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    45610 |    4176 (0.09244) |   40997 |     437 |   15856.77 |   17648.71 |     7.26 |  -1791.94 | 111.301
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   176075 |   21562 (0.12280) |  154020 |     493 |   88424.41 |   87382.05 |   100.44 |   1042.35 |  98.821
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    89033 |   16263 (0.18375) |   72245 |     525 |  167867.94 |  169535.88 |  3314.87 |  -1667.94 | 100.994
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   233101 |   56727 (0.24393) |  175831 |     543 |  362093.73 |  348270.00 |  2056.37 |  13823.73 |  96.182
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   233198 |   85602 (0.36799) |  147021 |     575 |  580034.70 |  571792.13 |  1013.20 |   8242.57 |  98.579
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1090591 |  531429 (0.48799) |  557596 |    1566 |  856756.52 |  839329.61 |  2924.66 |  17426.90 |  97.966
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   570730 |  284708 (0.49977) |  284965 |    1057 |  653510.90 |  638483.67 |  6521.01 |  15027.22 |  97.701
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   323923 |  237668 (0.73511) |   85643 |     612 |  294657.65 |  287312.70 |  5455.20 |   7344.94 |  97.507
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    72052 |   56796 (0.79378) |   14755 |     501 |   60453.54 |   59116.51 |  1187.50 |   1337.02 |  97.788
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    59017 |   50080 (0.85649) |    8391 |     546 |   75866.45 |   75285.15 |   400.48 |    581.29 |  99.234
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    89853 |   81864 (0.91645) |    7463 |     526 |   69495.90 |   68724.43 |     0.45 |    771.47 |  98.890
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    15976 |   14652 (0.98000) |     299 |    1025 |   23805.23 |   23395.27 |   240.09 |    409.95 |  98.278
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3399323 | 1398153           | 1985253 |   15917 |  748637.96 |  734654.38 |   253.30 |  13983.58 |  98.132
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   112041 |   51636           |   60114 |     291 | 2610111.09 | 2555448.60 | 23362.70 |  54662.48 |  97.906
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3511364 | 1449789           | 2045367 |   16208 | 3358749.06 | 3290102.99 | 23616.00 |  68646.06 |  97.956
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      68646.06731943 BTC (2.044%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        2711.95557500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       65934.11174443 BTC (1.963%)
Pending Liabilities:           -0.13479997 BTC
Final SD Profit:            65934.24654440 BTC (1.963%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 11085772  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  6469336  (58.4%)
Blockchain MB:   4752.0  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2655.0  (55.9%)



ThickAsThieves
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 07, 2013, 12:38:34 AM
#928
Who shot the Dooglus?
byronbb
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
HODL OR DIE
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 06, 2013, 12:15:33 AM
#927
Quote from: dooglus on February 24, 2013, 02:38:56 PM

Someone hit 'lessthan 1' for the first time yesterday: http://www.satoshidice.com/full.php?tx=a874d43fb31c3a0785a6828006136c6d3a3cb79c3c19fe4c7caf770f42c6a3c7

Bet Amount: 0.02000000
Outcome: WIN
Payment: 1279.99950000

Just wow!  Bet $0.60 $0.88 win $38,400 $56531.



updated.
Bugpowder
sr. member
Activity: 394
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 05, 2013, 05:26:31 PM
#926
New address in the 'whale' network...

http://blockchain.info/address/1HqxVdsWmUBsLoUvangMPfbsG5VdApETZJ

Has 2,700 BTC ready to bet.
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 04, 2013, 02:16:03 PM
#925
Quote
Total of 19 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Mar-04 11:10am (up to block 224263)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    93779 |       1 (0.00001) |   92311 |    1467 |    1075.39 |    1280.01 |   118.40 |   -204.62 | 119.028
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     5036 |       0 (0.00000) |    4523 |     513 |      83.35 |       0.01 |    18.55 |     83.33 |   0.018
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     7450 |       1 (0.00014) |    7014 |     435 |     112.17 |     159.99 |    11.88 |    -47.81 | 142.628
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    11337 |       5 (0.00046) |   10886 |     446 |     206.77 |     431.89 |    10.06 |   -225.11 | 208.870
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    13108 |       1 (0.00008) |   12676 |     431 |     440.61 |       4.78 |    22.06 |    435.82 |   1.086
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    16121 |       6 (0.00038) |   15717 |     398 |     894.85 |     813.68 |     1.38 |     81.17 |  90.929
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    17753 |      18 (0.00104) |   17282 |     453 |    1304.04 |     401.77 |    55.78 |    902.27 |  30.810
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    19072 |      36 (0.00193) |   18589 |     447 |    2307.69 |    1547.54 |    48.36 |    760.14 |  67.060
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    23916 |     105 (0.00446) |   23428 |     383 |    4544.10 |    7357.11 |    13.19 |  -2813.00 | 161.904
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    32729 |     264 (0.00824) |   31771 |     694 |    5662.64 |    5645.24 |    10.01 |     17.40 |  99.693
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   111071 |    1698 (0.01535) |  108895 |     478 |   32438.55 |   29277.49 |     2.00 |   3161.06 |  90.255
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    24133 |     559 (0.02351) |   23219 |     355 |    7547.83 |    8097.65 |    15.08 |   -549.82 | 107.284
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    68511 |    2116 (0.03106) |   66000 |     395 |   33387.79 |   29739.79 |     9.35 |   3647.99 |  89.074
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    28174 |    1277 (0.04602) |   26469 |     428 |    9091.02 |    9981.14 |    25.16 |   -890.12 | 109.791
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    33935 |    2071 (0.06173) |   31479 |     385 |    7549.31 |    7383.43 |    31.34 |    165.87 |  97.803
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    45233 |    4137 (0.09234) |   40663 |     433 |   15837.74 |   17623.60 |     7.24 |  -1785.86 | 111.276
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   173966 |   21307 (0.12282) |  152171 |     488 |   87386.42 |   86287.11 |   100.41 |   1099.30 |  98.742
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    86977 |   15896 (0.18386) |   70562 |     519 |  166964.01 |  168732.15 |  3314.86 |  -1768.13 | 101.059
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   227152 |   55283 (0.24395) |  171329 |     540 |  359818.21 |  345809.20 |  2056.37 |  14009.00 |  96.107
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   227623 |   83565 (0.36804) |  143489 |     569 |  578020.76 |  569869.53 |  1013.18 |   8151.22 |  98.590
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1080479 |  526574 (0.48805) |  552353 |    1552 |  851476.30 |  832882.24 |  2924.61 |  18594.05 |  97.816
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   561214 |  279945 (0.49974) |  280232 |    1037 |  647533.24 |  633361.57 |  5720.94 |  14171.67 |  97.811
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   319774 |  234652 (0.73520) |   84515 |     607 |  293670.46 |  286306.69 |  5455.17 |   7363.77 |  97.493
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    70934 |   55916 (0.79378) |   14527 |     491 |   60246.81 |   58908.94 |  1187.46 |   1337.86 |  97.779
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    57961 |   49201 (0.85679) |    8224 |     536 |   75417.89 |   74844.85 |   400.44 |    573.04 |  99.240
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    87840 |   80037 (0.91659) |    7283 |     520 |   68986.28 |   68215.16 |     0.43 |    771.12 |  98.882
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    15758 |   14469 (0.98015) |     293 |     996 |   23749.74 |   23340.42 |   240.02 |    409.32 |  98.277
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3349888 | 1377729           | 1956452 |   15707 |  740275.76 |  726272.35 |   251.16 |  14003.40 |  98.108
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   111148 |   51411           |   59448 |     289 | 2595478.34 | 2542030.76 | 22562.70 |  53447.58 |  97.941
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3461036 | 1429140           | 2015900 |   15996 | 3335754.11 | 3268303.12 | 22813.86 |  67450.98 |  97.978
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      67450.98651481 BTC (2.022%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        2661.44047500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       64789.54603981 BTC (1.942%)
Pending Liabilities:            9.33232694 BTC
Final SD Profit:            64780.21371287 BTC (1.942%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 10937051  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  6375163  (58.3%)
Blockchain MB:   4684.4  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2616.6  (55.9%)



dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 04, 2013, 02:33:23 AM
#924
Quote from: romerun on March 04, 2013, 12:21:37 AM
Shocked 5 big wins within a few days, is this normal ?

There were lots more big wins in December and January than there have been recently.  But there were lots more losses too - more action overall.

It's been a pretty bad few days for the site, but it happens sometimes.
romerun
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1002
Bitcoin is new, makes sense to hodl.
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 04, 2013, 12:21:37 AM
#923
 Shocked 5 big wins within a few days, is this normal ?
Pages:
Bitcoin Forum>Economy>Marketplace>Service Discussion
Jump to: