Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 71.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote

Results: 2012-Aug-21 10:23am (up to block 195022)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 14952 | 0 (0.00000) | 14649 | 303 | 107.79 | 0.01 | 22.33 | 107.77 | 0.018
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1369 | 0 (0.00000) | 1298 | 71 | 20.12 | 0.00 | 6.58 | 20.12 | 0.009
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 1912 | 0 (0.00000) | 1877 | 35 | 23.53 | 0.02 | 3.22 | 23.50 | 0.108
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2053 | 1 (0.00050) | 2011 | 41 | 46.02 | 8.06 | 4.15 | 37.96 | 17.517
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2225 | 1 (0.00046) | 2190 | 34 | 83.60 | 4.23 | 7.40 | 79.36 | 5.069
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 4848 | 2 (0.00041) | 4835 | 11 | 366.95 | 103.42 | 1.29 | 263.52 | 28.185
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7005 | 8 (0.00115) | 6975 | 22 | 608.74 | 124.30 | 55.64 | 484.43 | 20.420
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 8690 | 19 (0.00220) | 8621 | 50 | 1559.22 | 1274.60 | 44.25 | 284.61 | 81.746
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 8720 | 42 (0.00482) | 8664 | 14 | 1212.35 | 1277.22 | 13.11 | -64.87 | 105.351
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 11950 | 89 (0.00745) | 11854 | 7 | 2389.47 | 1726.86 | 9.35 | 662.60 | 72.270
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 23297 | 344 (0.01477) | 22946 | 7 | 7781.91 | 7241.05 | 1.80 | 540.85 | 93.050
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 12222 | 279 (0.02284) | 11937 | 6 | 4510.75 | 4665.00 | 15.00 | -154.24 | 103.419
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 21089 | 659 (0.03125) | 20427 | 3 | 5315.73 | 4502.81 | 9.24 | 812.92 | 84.707
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 13649 | 635 (0.04655) | 13007 | 7 | 6632.20 | 7937.43 | 24.99 | -1305.22 | 119.680
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 13906 | 863 (0.06207) | 13040 | 3 | 4461.25 | 3938.73 | 31.20 | 522.51 | 88.288
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 18330 | 1723 (0.09405) | 16597 | 10 | 9341.28 | 9478.06 | 7.01 | -136.78 | 101.464
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 70618 | 8688 (0.12306) | 61909 | 21 | 8499.63 | 7469.82 | 0.00 | 1029.81 | 87.884
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 18582 | 3507 (0.18880) | 15068 | 7 | 7506.90 | 7599.99 | 14.50 | -93.08 | 101.240
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 55824 | 13585 (0.24340) | 42229 | 10 | 24021.42 | 24105.85 | 347.79 | -84.43 | 100.351
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 43223 | 15915 (0.36851) | 27272 | 36 | 19582.82 | 19181.69 | 212.63 | 401.13 | 97.952
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 400183 | 195092 (0.48771) | 204921 | 170 | 214058.67 | 214691.19 | 2173.21 | -632.51 | 100.295
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 155300 | 77311 (0.49827) | 77848 | 141 | 87408.68 | 84911.46 | 1045.21 | 2497.21 | 97.143
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 126325 | 92969 (0.73636) | 33286 | 70 | 117919.77 | 116014.22 | 467.98 | 1905.54 | 98.384
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 6736 | 5358 (0.79578) | 1375 | 3 | 16235.23 | 16118.72 | 400.00 | 116.51 | 99.282
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 5058 | 4313 (0.85355) | 740 | 5 | 5911.34 | 5761.07 | 400.00 | 150.26 | 97.458
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 2120 | 1935 (0.91489) | 180 | 5 | 2765.46 | 2764.83 | 0.00 | 0.62 | 99.977
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 6688 | 6423 (0.97941) | 135 | 130 | 14978.36 | 14699.43 | 239.20 | 278.93 | 98.138
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1025969 | 414270 | 610684 | 1015 | 240876.13 | 233562.23 | 138.83 | 7313.89 | 96.964
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 30905 | 15491 | 15207 | 207 | 322473.20 | 322037.98 | 5418.35 | 435.22 | 99.865
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1056874 | 429761 | 625891 | 1222 | 563349.33 | 555600.21 | 5557.19 | 7749.12 | 98.624
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 7749.12012215 BTC (1.376%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 532.34702500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 7216.77309715 BTC (1.281%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 3365999 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1943703 (57.7%)
Blockchain MB: 1405.6 : SatoshiDice Tx: 795.6 (56.6%)

gmaxwell

staff

Activity: 4284

Merit: 8808

Quote from: dooglus on August 20, 2012, 05:54:03 PM

We can't tell what the real profit is, since there are likely to be lots of hidden (to us) expenses.

Or, potentially fictitious income.

A plan for extreme profit:
(1) Create highly blockchain visible service
(2) Use it yourself in high volume to create the appearance of large income
(3) Raise 34500 BTC from selling shares in an IPO
(4) PROFIT!

I don't have any reason to believe this to be the case here— beyond a remaining flicker of hope that so many of my fellow men are not actually stupid enough to throw away thousands of BTC on what is apparently the least entertaining gambling site ever created— but nor can I exclude that possibility from the data made available.

Caveat Emptor.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: misterbigg on August 20, 2012, 05:41:30 PM

Is there a way to figure out a running balance of the SatoshiDICE cash reserves? Or has that already been posted and I just don't see it? Or is it opaque?

This would seem to be quite an important figure for investors.

Thanks

Their profit from bets, after subtracting fees is 7333 BTC. I don't know what they started with, or how much they've paid out on advertising, development, web hosting, etc.

From the blockchain, that's all we can tell. We can't tell what the real profit is, since there are likely to be lots of hidden (to us) expenses.

The-Real-Link

hero member

Activity: 533

Merit: 500

Ah, gotcha. Thanks for the insight on that Dooglus Wink

misterbigg

legendary

Activity: 1064

Merit: 1001

Is there a way to figure out a running balance of the SatoshiDICE cash reserves? Or has that already been posted and I just don't see it? Or is it opaque?

This would seem to be quite an important figure for investors.

Thanks

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote

Results: 2012-Aug-20 03:00pm (up to block 194876)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 14695 | 0 (0.00000) | 14393 | 302 | 106.12 | 0.01 | 22.08 | 106.10 | 0.018
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1360 | 0 (0.00000) | 1289 | 71 | 20.08 | 0.00 | 6.58 | 20.08 | 0.009
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 1901 | 0 (0.00000) | 1866 | 35 | 23.28 | 0.02 | 3.22 | 23.26 | 0.107
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2042 | 1 (0.00050) | 2000 | 41 | 45.97 | 8.06 | 4.15 | 37.91 | 17.537
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2210 | 1 (0.00046) | 2175 | 34 | 82.72 | 4.23 | 7.40 | 78.48 | 5.119
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 4829 | 2 (0.00042) | 4816 | 11 | 366.67 | 103.42 | 1.29 | 263.24 | 28.206
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 6995 | 8 (0.00115) | 6965 | 22 | 608.56 | 124.30 | 55.64 | 484.25 | 20.426
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 8674 | 19 (0.00220) | 8605 | 50 | 1559.17 | 1274.60 | 44.25 | 284.56 | 81.749
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 8705 | 42 (0.00483) | 8649 | 14 | 1212.09 | 1277.22 | 13.11 | -65.13 | 105.374
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 11933 | 89 (0.00746) | 11837 | 7 | 2389.04 | 1726.86 | 9.35 | 662.17 | 72.283
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 23073 | 341 (0.01478) | 22725 | 7 | 7781.11 | 7240.86 | 1.80 | 540.25 | 93.057
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 12209 | 278 (0.02278) | 11925 | 6 | 4509.01 | 4663.29 | 15.00 | -154.27 | 103.422
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 21080 | 659 (0.03127) | 20418 | 3 | 5315.01 | 4502.81 | 9.24 | 812.20 | 84.719
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 13634 | 635 (0.04660) | 12992 | 7 | 6626.07 | 7937.40 | 24.99 | -1311.33 | 119.790
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 13887 | 862 (0.06209) | 13022 | 3 | 4460.50 | 3938.57 | 31.20 | 521.92 | 88.299
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 18297 | 1722 (0.09417) | 16565 | 10 | 9330.39 | 9466.29 | 7.01 | -135.90 | 101.457
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 70469 | 8654 (0.12284) | 61794 | 21 | 8488.79 | 7446.02 | 0.00 | 1042.76 | 87.716
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 18524 | 3498 (0.18891) | 15019 | 7 | 7496.35 | 7584.13 | 14.50 | -87.77 | 101.171
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 55298 | 13442 (0.24313) | 41846 | 10 | 23891.66 | 23879.79 | 347.79 | 11.87 | 99.950
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 41555 | 15308 (0.36870) | 26211 | 36 | 18104.84 | 17947.56 | 212.63 | 157.27 | 99.131
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 396917 | 193504 (0.48772) | 203247 | 166 | 205145.92 | 205722.01 | 2173.21 | -576.08 | 100.281
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 154571 | 76960 (0.49834) | 77472 | 139 | 80437.42 | 77749.40 | 1045.20 | 2688.01 | 96.658
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 126120 | 92814 (0.73633) | 33236 | 70 | 116210.68 | 114298.25 | 467.98 | 1912.42 | 98.354
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 6672 | 5310 (0.79622) | 1359 | 3 | 16192.69 | 16069.95 | 400.00 | 122.73 | 99.242
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 5001 | 4263 (0.85328) | 733 | 5 | 5862.07 | 5719.95 | 400.00 | 142.11 | 97.576
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 2048 | 1872 (0.91630) | 171 | 5 | 2715.52 | 2713.95 | 0.00 | 1.56 | 99.942
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 6643 | 6379 (0.97943) | 134 | 130 | 14969.51 | 14690.56 | 239.20 | 278.95 | 98.137
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1019253 | 411591 | 606654 | 1008 | 238418.23 | 231060.50 | 138.58 | 7357.72 | 96.914
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 30089 | 15072 | 14810 | 207 | 305533.14 | 305029.15 | 5418.35 | 503.99 | 99.835
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1049342 | 426663 | 621464 | 1215 | 543951.37 | 536089.65 | 5556.94 | 7861.72 | 98.555
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 7861.72183369 BTC (1.445%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 528.51587500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 7333.20595869 BTC (1.348%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 3334348 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1929240 (57.9%)
Blockchain MB: 1393.2 : SatoshiDice Tx: 789.7 (56.7%)

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: The-Real-Link on August 19, 2012, 10:46:01 PM

if I send out say, two of them one after another, is it still the random Tx "ID" that makes it win or lose? I guess it sounds like it's always better to do a single bet than try grouping anything, correct?

If you send them one after another, then they are completely independent events.

What you can do, however, is send multiple bets *at once* by clicking 'add recipient' on the satoshi client's 'send' tab. If you do that, then all your bets in that transaction get the same lucky number.

The lucky number is determined completely by just 2 things: the transaction ID of the transaction containing the bet, and the day's "secret". If you send your bets separately, they'll have completely different transaction IDs, and so their lucky numbers won't be related.

It does appear that 'luck' runs in streaks though doesn't it. I have to believe that's just an illusion though - that we focus on winning and losing streaks and ignore the win/lose sequences that are less patterned.

The-Real-Link

hero member

Activity: 533

Merit: 500

Been enjoying this a bit recently and it's fun, even though I'm losing Wink

.

  Dooglus, thanks for taking all the time to compile these stats and info pieces - it's quite interesting.

  Guess I have a question for you though: Since I'm not doing martingale bets and just doing the normal one at a time, if I send out say, two of them one after another, is it still the random Tx "ID" that makes it win or lose? I guess it sounds like it's always better to do a single bet than try grouping anything, correct?

  It's just odd that I've made a couple coins and then proceeded to lose 3, 2BTC bets in a row atleast two or three times (which chance shows should be relatively low).

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote

Results: 2012-Aug-18 10:24am (up to block 194495)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 14301 | 0 (0.00000) | 14000 | 301 | 93.00 | 0.01 | 21.98 | 92.98 | 0.021
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1276 | 0 (0.00000) | 1205 | 71 | 19.22 | 0.00 | 6.58 | 19.21 | 0.009
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 1842 | 0 (0.00000) | 1807 | 35 | 22.41 | 0.02 | 3.22 | 22.39 | 0.102
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 1986 | 1 (0.00051) | 1944 | 41 | 44.30 | 8.05 | 4.15 | 36.25 | 18.183
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2153 | 1 (0.00047) | 2118 | 34 | 77.84 | 4.21 | 7.40 | 73.63 | 5.412
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 4765 | 2 (0.00042) | 4752 | 11 | 357.38 | 103.38 | 1.29 | 254.00 | 28.927
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 6892 | 8 (0.00116) | 6867 | 17 | 597.06 | 124.25 | 55.64 | 472.80 | 20.811
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 8580 | 19 (0.00223) | 8511 | 50 | 1532.70 | 1274.49 | 44.25 | 258.21 | 83.153
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 8633 | 41 (0.00476) | 8578 | 14 | 1205.13 | 1275.95 | 13.11 | -70.81 | 105.876
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 11819 | 88 (0.00745) | 11724 | 7 | 2359.75 | 1726.11 | 9.35 | 633.63 | 73.148
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 22371 | 332 (0.01484) | 22034 | 5 | 6855.26 | 6532.18 | 1.80 | 323.07 | 95.287
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 12135 | 275 (0.02267) | 11854 | 6 | 4498.90 | 4660.60 | 15.00 | -161.70 | 103.594
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 21015 | 656 (0.03122) | 20356 | 3 | 5310.47 | 4502.09 | 9.24 | 808.37 | 84.778
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 13551 | 631 (0.04659) | 12913 | 7 | 6618.35 | 7933.86 | 24.99 | -1315.51 | 119.877
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 13803 | 855 (0.06196) | 12945 | 3 | 4457.42 | 3934.02 | 31.20 | 523.40 | 88.258
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 18189 | 1708 (0.09395) | 16471 | 10 | 9312.22 | 9425.59 | 7.01 | -113.37 | 101.217
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 69660 | 8548 (0.12275) | 61091 | 21 | 8102.44 | 7138.87 | 0.00 | 963.56 | 88.108
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 18403 | 3463 (0.18825) | 14933 | 7 | 7475.18 | 7559.09 | 14.50 | -83.91 | 101.123
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 53102 | 12897 (0.24291) | 40196 | 9 | 21915.38 | 21911.44 | 347.79 | 3.93 | 99.982
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 38479 | 14181 (0.36888) | 24262 | 36 | 17413.88 | 17394.93 | 212.63 | 18.95 | 99.891
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 388067 | 189124 (0.48755) | 198779 | 164 | 193919.90 | 194048.76 | 2173.21 | -128.85 | 100.066
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 152710 | 76049 (0.49830) | 76567 | 94 | 76581.59 | 74180.25 | 789.20 | 2401.34 | 96.864
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 124731 | 91779 (0.73622) | 32884 | 68 | 115440.83 | 113610.74 | 467.98 | 1830.08 | 98.415
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 6440 | 5112 (0.79416) | 1325 | 3 | 16073.04 | 15947.41 | 400.00 | 125.63 | 99.218
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 4498 | 3831 (0.85266) | 662 | 5 | 5093.05 | 5031.09 | 400.00 | 61.96 | 98.783
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 1986 | 1817 (0.91675) | 165 | 4 | 2447.09 | 2434.61 | 0.00 | 12.47 | 99.490
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 6599 | 6336 (0.97944) | 133 | 130 | 14847.86 | 14568.39 | 239.20 | 279.46 | 98.118
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 999000 | 403237 | 594813 | 950 | 229219.68 | 222425.91 | 138.47 | 6793.77 | 97.036
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 28986 | 14517 | 14263 | 206 | 293452.07 | 292904.62 | 5162.35 | 547.45 | 99.813
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1027986 | 417754 | 609076 | 1156 | 522671.75 | 515330.53 | 5300.83 | 7341.22 | 98.595
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 7341.22410300 BTC (1.405%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 517.72440000 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 6823.49970300 BTC (1.306%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 3255634 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1889254 (58.0%)
Blockchain MB: 1358.4 : SatoshiDice Tx: 773.3 (56.9%)

bruiser

member

Activity: 68

Merit: 13

It sure is addicting, I've been having a blast rolling with some of my mined coins. Thanks for this site, very enjoyable!

byronbb

legendary

Activity: 1414

Merit: 1000

HODL OR DIE

Damnnnnnn this thing is a printing press. FORGET MINING.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

And the high-rollers have just become profitable for SD overall too. At last!

Quote

Results: 2012-Aug-17 12:40pm (up to block 194362)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 14194 | 0 (0.00000) | 13895 | 299 | 92.30 | 0.01 | 21.13 | 92.28 | 0.021
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1253 | 0 (0.00000) | 1182 | 71 | 19.03 | 0.00 | 6.58 | 19.02 | 0.009
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 1819 | 0 (0.00000) | 1784 | 35 | 21.99 | 0.02 | 3.22 | 21.97 | 0.099
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 1951 | 1 (0.00052) | 1909 | 41 | 43.72 | 8.05 | 4.15 | 35.66 | 18.422
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2121 | 1 (0.00048) | 2086 | 34 | 76.91 | 4.20 | 7.40 | 72.70 | 5.473
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 4739 | 2 (0.00042) | 4726 | 11 | 354.46 | 103.37 | 1.29 | 251.09 | 29.163
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 6852 | 8 (0.00117) | 6827 | 17 | 583.06 | 124.19 | 55.64 | 458.87 | 21.300
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 8521 | 19 (0.00224) | 8452 | 50 | 1527.24 | 1274.48 | 44.25 | 252.76 | 83.450
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 8607 | 41 (0.00477) | 8552 | 14 | 1204.01 | 1275.94 | 13.11 | -71.93 | 105.975
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 11773 | 88 (0.00748) | 11678 | 7 | 2342.02 | 1726.04 | 9.35 | 615.98 | 73.698
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 22205 | 329 (0.01482) | 21871 | 5 | 6776.15 | 6419.93 | 1.80 | 356.21 | 94.743
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 12122 | 275 (0.02270) | 11841 | 6 | 4494.47 | 4660.58 | 15.00 | -166.10 | 103.696
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 21004 | 655 (0.03119) | 20346 | 3 | 5306.96 | 4470.09 | 9.24 | 836.86 | 84.231
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 13515 | 630 (0.04664) | 12878 | 7 | 6597.34 | 7928.44 | 24.99 | -1331.10 | 120.176
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 13753 | 850 (0.06182) | 12900 | 3 | 4450.61 | 3920.99 | 31.20 | 529.62 | 88.100
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 18147 | 1705 (0.09401) | 16432 | 10 | 9304.31 | 9424.24 | 7.01 | -119.93 | 101.289
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 68990 | 8459 (0.12265) | 60510 | 21 | 8021.63 | 7070.93 | 0.00 | 950.69 | 88.148
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 18258 | 3443 (0.18865) | 14808 | 7 | 7464.88 | 7552.92 | 14.50 | -88.04 | 101.180
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 52747 | 12829 (0.24326) | 39909 | 9 | 21826.31 | 21844.82 | 347.79 | -18.50 | 100.085
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 38108 | 14049 (0.36899) | 24025 | 34 | 17319.64 | 17316.47 | 212.63 | 3.17 | 99.982
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 384457 | 187450 (0.48778) | 196843 | 164 | 189652.06 | 189891.62 | 2173.21 | -239.55 | 100.126
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 152225 | 75814 (0.49835) | 76317 | 94 | 73992.29 | 71588.42 | 789.20 | 2403.86 | 96.751
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 123869 | 91162 (0.73635) | 32640 | 67 | 114855.39 | 113037.02 | 467.98 | 1818.37 | 98.417
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 6383 | 5067 (0.79420) | 1313 | 3 | 16059.90 | 15937.90 | 400.00 | 121.99 | 99.240
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 4403 | 3753 (0.85334) | 645 | 5 | 5076.25 | 5016.67 | 400.00 | 59.57 | 98.826
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 1958 | 1792 (0.91709) | 162 | 4 | 2434.22 | 2422.47 | 0.00 | 11.74 | 99.517
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 6580 | 6318 (0.97953) | 132 | 130 | 14827.96 | 14549.17 | 239.20 | 278.79 | 98.120
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 991936 | 400406 | 590585 | 945 | 225993.10 | 219336.64 | 137.62 | 6656.46 | 97.055
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 28618 | 14334 | 14078 | 206 | 288732.12 | 288232.47 | 5162.35 | 499.65 | 99.827
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1020554 | 414740 | 604663 | 1151 | 514725.23 | 507569.11 | 5299.98 | 7156.12 | 98.610
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 7156.12069321 BTC (1.390%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 513.97065000 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 6642.15004321 BTC (1.290%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 3220351 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1875174 (58.2%)
Blockchain MB: 1343.9 : SatoshiDice Tx: 767.6 (57.1%)

nibor

sr. member

Activity: 438

Merit: 291

So over half their turnover comes from the >4 BTC bets even though they are only 2% of the bets by volume.

Now you know why Las Vegas give away suites to high rollers! There are not many of them but they spend a lot!

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote

Results: 2012-Aug-16 08:40am (up to block 194199)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 14001 | 0 (0.00000) | 13703 | 298 | 90.34 | 0.01 | 21.03 | 90.32 | 0.021
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1247 | 0 (0.00000) | 1176 | 71 | 19.02 | 0.00 | 6.58 | 19.02 | 0.009
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 1813 | 0 (0.00000) | 1778 | 35 | 21.98 | 0.02 | 3.22 | 21.96 | 0.099
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 1944 | 1 (0.00053) | 1902 | 41 | 43.71 | 8.05 | 4.15 | 35.66 | 18.425
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2102 | 1 (0.00048) | 2067 | 34 | 74.70 | 4.20 | 7.40 | 70.50 | 5.628
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 4703 | 2 (0.00043) | 4690 | 11 | 350.22 | 103.35 | 1.29 | 246.87 | 29.510
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 6832 | 8 (0.00117) | 6807 | 17 | 582.14 | 124.18 | 55.64 | 457.95 | 21.333
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 8443 | 19 (0.00226) | 8374 | 50 | 1526.18 | 1274.47 | 44.25 | 251.70 | 83.508
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 8591 | 41 (0.00478) | 8536 | 14 | 1201.70 | 1275.93 | 13.11 | -74.23 | 106.178
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 11753 | 87 (0.00741) | 11659 | 7 | 2339.09 | 1713.53 | 9.35 | 625.56 | 73.256
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 22007 | 325 (0.01477) | 21677 | 5 | 6660.96 | 6304.23 | 1.80 | 356.73 | 94.644
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 12067 | 273 (0.02263) | 11788 | 6 | 4480.77 | 4630.69 | 15.00 | -149.91 | 103.346
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 20956 | 654 (0.03121) | 20299 | 3 | 5293.61 | 4469.73 | 9.24 | 823.88 | 84.436
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 13383 | 624 (0.04665) | 12752 | 7 | 6577.59 | 7889.58 | 24.99 | -1311.98 | 119.946
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 13668 | 846 (0.06191) | 12819 | 3 | 4438.34 | 3884.01 | 31.20 | 554.33 | 87.510
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 18097 | 1703 (0.09416) | 16384 | 10 | 9259.66 | 9418.58 | 7.01 | -158.91 | 101.716
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 68745 | 8430 (0.12266) | 60296 | 19 | 7995.12 | 7048.83 | 0.00 | 946.28 | 88.164
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 18136 | 3423 (0.18881) | 14706 | 7 | 7442.66 | 7539.43 | 14.50 | -96.77 | 101.300
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 51964 | 12616 (0.24283) | 39339 | 9 | 21648.33 | 21735.03 | 347.79 | -86.70 | 100.400
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 37005 | 13649 (0.36918) | 23322 | 34 | 17099.11 | 17104.92 | 212.63 | -5.80 | 100.034
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 380294 | 185414 (0.48776) | 194716 | 164 | 181133.12 | 181912.34 | 2173.21 | -779.21 | 100.430
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 151604 | 75494 (0.49828) | 76016 | 94 | 72592.37 | 70533.07 | 789.20 | 2059.30 | 97.163
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 122763 | 90343 (0.73632) | 32353 | 67 | 113534.83 | 111752.77 | 467.98 | 1782.06 | 98.430
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 6260 | 4975 (0.79511) | 1282 | 3 | 15971.22 | 15857.82 | 400.00 | 113.40 | 99.290
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 4314 | 3683 (0.85472) | 626 | 5 | 5023.10 | 4966.05 | 400.00 | 57.05 | 98.864
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 1943 | 1781 (0.91851) | 158 | 4 | 2427.97 | 2416.70 | 0.00 | 11.26 | 99.536
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 6541 | 6280 (0.97957) | 131 | 130 | 14791.13 | 14514.32 | 239.20 | 276.80 | 98.129
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 983501 | 396786 | 585773 | 942 | 221950.97 | 215282.53 | 137.52 | 6668.44 | 96.996
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 27675 | 13886 | 13583 | 206 | 280668.14 | 281199.44 | 5162.35 | -531.30 | 100.189
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1011176 | 410672 | 599356 | 1148 | 502619.12 | 496481.97 | 5299.88 | 6137.14 | 98.779
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 6137.14137015 BTC (1.221%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 509.24547500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 5627.89589515 BTC (1.120%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 3171335 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1857147 (58.6%)
Blockchain MB: 1324.9 : SatoshiDice Tx: 760.4 (57.4%)

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

That's a huge sudden profit for SD in the last 24h. Most of the gains were made in blocks 194014 (500 BTC) and 194015 (1100 BTC).

It turns out these losses weren't the result of martingale betting. It looks like it was someone just betting over and over on the high-reward bets, and losing every time.

The bets were:

30 * 1 BTC on 'lessthan 128' 30

127 * 1 BTC on 'lessthan 256' 127

136 * 1 BTC on 'lessthan 512' 136

22 * 1 BTC on 'lessthan 1000' 22
20 * 2 BTC on 'lessthan 1000' 40
20 * 3 BTC on 'lessthan 1000' 60
50 * 5 BTC on 'lessthan 1000' 250

20 * 2 BTC on 'lessthan 1500' 40
20 * 3 BTC on 'lessthan 1500' 60
50 * 5 BTC on 'lessthan 1500' 250

20 * 2 BTC on 'lessthan 2000' 40
20 * 3 BTC on 'lessthan 2000' 60
50 * 5 BTC on 'lessthan 2000' 250

40 * 3 BTC on 'lessthan 3000' 120

40 * 3 BTC on 'lessthan 4000' 120
----
1605

That's pretty unlucky not to have won a single one of those bets. But most of them were multi-bet transactions, so it's not as unlucky as it looks at first glance.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote

Results: 2012-Aug-15 01:54pm (up to block 194077)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 13767 | 0 (0.00000) | 13470 | 297 | 86.00 | 0.01 | 20.93 | 85.98 | 0.022
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1232 | 0 (0.00000) | 1162 | 70 | 18.49 | 0.00 | 5.58 | 18.48 | 0.010
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 1806 | 0 (0.00000) | 1772 | 34 | 21.97 | 0.02 | 2.22 | 21.95 | 0.099
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 1870 | 1 (0.00055) | 1828 | 41 | 38.46 | 8.05 | 4.15 | 30.40 | 20.942
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2086 | 1 (0.00049) | 2051 | 34 | 74.67 | 4.20 | 7.40 | 70.47 | 5.630
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 4636 | 2 (0.00043) | 4623 | 11 | 349.33 | 103.35 | 1.29 | 245.98 | 29.585
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 6652 | 8 (0.00121) | 6627 | 17 | 532.49 | 124.01 | 55.64 | 408.48 | 23.289
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 8257 | 19 (0.00232) | 8188 | 50 | 1484.32 | 1274.35 | 44.25 | 209.96 | 85.854
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 8370 | 40 (0.00479) | 8316 | 14 | 1136.96 | 1025.85 | 13.11 | 111.11 | 90.227
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 11528 | 85 (0.00738) | 11436 | 7 | 2294.17 | 1671.54 | 9.35 | 622.62 | 72.861
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 21627 | 320 (0.01480) | 21302 | 5 | 6281.63 | 6065.20 | 1.80 | 216.42 | 96.555
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 11793 | 267 (0.02265) | 11520 | 6 | 4334.01 | 4526.10 | 15.00 | -192.09 | 104.432
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 20631 | 646 (0.03132) | 19982 | 3 | 5188.91 | 4389.37 | 9.24 | 799.54 | 84.591
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 12747 | 600 (0.04710) | 12140 | 7 | 6326.73 | 7724.09 | 24.99 | -1397.35 | 122.087
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 13434 | 835 (0.06217) | 12596 | 3 | 4367.83 | 3843.76 | 31.20 | 524.06 | 88.002
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 18020 | 1697 (0.09423) | 16313 | 10 | 9252.89 | 9416.86 | 7.01 | -163.97 | 101.772
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 68533 | 8403 (0.12264) | 60112 | 18 | 7911.10 | 6980.93 | 0.00 | 930.17 | 88.242
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 18045 | 3411 (0.18910) | 14627 | 7 | 7383.09 | 7506.91 | 14.50 | -123.82 | 101.677
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 51474 | 12504 (0.24296) | 38961 | 9 | 20905.77 | 21143.16 | 347.79 | -237.39 | 101.136
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 36614 | 13509 (0.36930) | 23071 | 34 | 16862.29 | 16885.27 | 212.63 | -22.97 | 100.136
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 376865 | 183740 (0.48776) | 192962 | 163 | 173820.15 | 174926.77 | 2173.21 | -1106.62 | 100.637
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 150979 | 75183 (0.49828) | 75702 | 94 | 71594.39 | 69647.51 | 789.20 | 1946.87 | 97.281
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 122049 | 89807 (0.73623) | 32175 | 67 | 112920.13 | 111140.52 | 467.98 | 1779.60 | 98.424
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 6048 | 4813 (0.79620) | 1232 | 3 | 15896.79 | 15787.63 | 400.00 | 109.16 | 99.313
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 4216 | 3606 (0.85633) | 605 | 5 | 4973.89 | 4944.18 | 400.00 | 29.71 | 99.403
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 1850 | 1697 (0.91928) | 149 | 4 | 2402.78 | 2392.64 | 0.00 | 10.13 | 99.578
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 6511 | 6250 (0.97947) | 131 | 130 | 14731.06 | 14454.00 | 239.20 | 277.05 | 98.119
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 974713 | 393885 | 579891 | 937 | 218603.01 | 212010.72 | 135.42 | 6592.29 | 96.984
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 26927 | 13559 | 13162 | 206 | 272587.40 | 273975.71 | 5162.35 | -1388.30 | 100.509
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1001640 | 407444 | 593053 | 1143 | 491190.41 | 485986.43 | 5297.78 | 5203.98 | 98.941
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 5203.98136731 BTC (1.059%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 504.36495000 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 4699.61641731 BTC (0.957%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 3134755 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1840187 (58.7%)
Blockchain MB: 1309.0 : SatoshiDice Tx: 752.7 (57.5%)

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: byronbb on August 15, 2012, 12:26:01 PM

I take it the dashed line on the graph is proportional to bet volume?

Right. It's the amount of profit they 'should' have made if they were really making 1% or 1.5% on turnover. i.e. it's where the black (total profit) line should be. When the dotted line gets steeper, it means the site is taking a larger volume of bets. The dotted line is after fees have been paid, which is why multiplying the lower dotted line's height by 100 gets a little less than the total amount wagered so far.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: nibor on August 15, 2012, 08:26:44 AM

dooglus - what proportion of bets are over 4? Just interested to know if they are taking a lot of large bets or not.

I'll add that information to the daily report in future.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: mrvision on August 15, 2012, 03:12:48 AM

Wow.. thanks!!! by the way.. yesterday i saw satoshidice giving the same lucky number 3 times in a row to the same bitcoinaddress for diferent amounts (some of them losing because they were diferent bets) that made me forget the martingale thing.

Thanks anyway for the info!

You're welcome.

The "lucky number" is determined from just 2 things: the transaction ID and the day's "secret". You're allowed to put multiple bets in a single transaction, and they will all get the same lucky number. That's probably what you saw.

Here's an example: http://www.satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=0f871a7bce540016cdf13e8ee0a4f92d433ee68013f9e77787590e12a2342712 - it's 6 bets all in the same transaction, so they all get the same (losing) lucky number. Notice how the 'Bet Tx' field is the same for all 6 bets. You can see the bet at blockchain.info here: http://blockchain.info/tx-index/15859914

If you make your martingale bets one at a time then you're unlikely (1 in 65536 chance) to get the same number on any pair of bets. You wouldn't ever make your bets in the same transaction, since you need to see whether the first one wins before being able to decide whether the 2nd bet needs making or not.

What some people seem to do is run multiple martingales at once, for different odds. Then you can place multiple bets in the same transaction. But like I say, martingale is not a winning strategy, long term.

byronbb

legendary

Activity: 1414

Merit: 1000

HODL OR DIE

I take it the dashed line on the graph is proportional to bet volume?

Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 71. (Read 192896 times)