Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 70.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote

Results: 2012-Aug-26 03:08pm (up to block 195840)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 15587 | 0 (0.00000) | 15272 | 315 | 113.40 | 0.01 | 23.13 | 113.39 | 0.017
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1434 | 0 (0.00000) | 1363 | 71 | 21.10 | 0.00 | 6.58 | 21.10 | 0.008
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 1961 | 0 (0.00000) | 1926 | 35 | 24.31 | 0.02 | 3.22 | 24.28 | 0.106
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2092 | 1 (0.00049) | 2049 | 42 | 46.75 | 8.06 | 4.15 | 38.68 | 17.248
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2255 | 1 (0.00045) | 2219 | 35 | 84.72 | 4.24 | 7.40 | 80.48 | 5.006
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 4930 | 2 (0.00041) | 4917 | 11 | 369.75 | 103.43 | 1.29 | 266.32 | 27.974
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7113 | 8 (0.00113) | 7083 | 22 | 616.33 | 124.33 | 55.64 | 492.00 | 20.173
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 8896 | 19 (0.00215) | 8827 | 50 | 1568.05 | 1274.61 | 44.25 | 293.44 | 81.286
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 8883 | 42 (0.00474) | 8827 | 14 | 1218.37 | 1277.24 | 13.11 | -58.87 | 104.832
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 12136 | 91 (0.00750) | 12036 | 9 | 2403.39 | 1754.38 | 9.35 | 649.01 | 72.996
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 24099 | 360 (0.01494) | 23732 | 7 | 7889.31 | 7350.07 | 1.80 | 539.24 | 93.165
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 12397 | 284 (0.02292) | 12107 | 6 | 4517.84 | 4670.04 | 15.00 | -152.20 | 103.369
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 21211 | 663 (0.03126) | 20545 | 3 | 5328.21 | 4511.52 | 9.24 | 816.68 | 84.672
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 13814 | 644 (0.04664) | 13163 | 7 | 6644.20 | 7952.31 | 24.99 | -1308.11 | 119.688
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 14161 | 876 (0.06188) | 13281 | 4 | 4480.93 | 3950.09 | 31.20 | 530.83 | 88.153
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 18644 | 1752 (0.09405) | 16876 | 16 | 9422.25 | 9513.83 | 7.01 | -91.58 | 100.972
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 72226 | 8892 (0.12315) | 63313 | 21 | 8777.82 | 7725.56 | 0.00 | 1052.26 | 88.012
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 19111 | 3596 (0.18828) | 15503 | 12 | 7631.13 | 7732.67 | 14.50 | -101.54 | 101.331
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 58174 | 14164 (0.24355) | 43993 | 17 | 26263.28 | 26425.78 | 347.79 | -162.49 | 100.619
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 46773 | 17213 (0.36831) | 29522 | 38 | 20869.87 | 20360.76 | 212.63 | 509.10 | 97.561
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 419382 | 204433 (0.48766) | 214776 | 173 | 248412.06 | 247090.26 | 2173.21 | 1321.79 | 99.468
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 160171 | 79763 (0.49846) | 80257 | 151 | 93691.08 | 91100.31 | 1045.21 | 2590.77 | 97.235
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 131132 | 96476 (0.73612) | 34584 | 72 | 126941.89 | 124849.71 | 467.98 | 2092.17 | 98.352
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 7278 | 5786 (0.79544) | 1488 | 4 | 17081.20 | 16980.81 | 400.00 | 100.39 | 99.412
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 5739 | 4890 (0.85325) | 841 | 8 | 6625.93 | 6474.33 | 400.00 | 151.60 | 97.712
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 2989 | 2728 (0.91452) | 255 | 6 | 4481.66 | 4485.88 | 0.00 | -4.22 | 100.094
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 6845 | 6576 (0.97945) | 138 | 131 | 15255.16 | 14977.19 | 239.20 | 277.96 | 98.178
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1065809 | 432263 | 632473 | 1073 | 258014.30 | 250304.36 | 139.64 | 7709.93 | 97.012
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 33624 | 16997 | 16420 | 207 | 362765.82 | 360393.20 | 5418.35 | 2372.61 | 99.346
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1099433 | 449260 | 648893 | 1280 | 620780.12 | 610697.56 | 5558.00 | 10082.55 | 98.376
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 10082.55703361 BTC (1.624%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 553.81272500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 9528.74430861 BTC (1.535%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 3543403 : SatoshiDice Tx: 2026652 (57.2%)
Blockchain MB: 1474.2 : SatoshiDice Tx: 829.5 (56.3%)

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: Draino on August 25, 2012, 05:14:30 PM

hope i'm not messing up your thread, but it's weird what you were saying about masking profits, and now they seem to be skyrocketing after the IPO announcement

I can't think of any way that it would be possible for anyone to prove either way whether the profits are real or fake. The owners of the site can place winning or losing bets of their own at any time to skew the profit/loss graph as they wish, and any such bets are indistinguishable from 'real' bets.

So yeah, all we can say is "it's weird".

etotheipi

legendary

Activity: 1428

Merit: 1093

Core Armory Developer

Quote from: dooglus on August 24, 2012, 04:33:07 PM

This looks like the major contributor to the most recent SD profits - another martingale disaster:

I wish I could remember the quote I once read about martingale betting -- it was something like:

Quote from: Unknown

Martingale betting is a fun concept, but it doesn't work. In order to guarantee success, a Martingale bettor needs access to an infinite bankroll... and infinite balls. Unfortunately for the bettor, all bankrolls are finite but infinite balls is very, very possible.

I've scoured the internet, and I can't find any (relevant) quotes with "infinite balls" in it. So I guess I can claim credit for it

(though, the original version had a much better delivery)

Draino

full member

Activity: 168

Merit: 100

hope i'm not messing up your thread, but it's weird what you were saying about masking profits, and now they seem to be skyrocketing after the IPO announcement

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote

Results: 2012-Aug-25 02:42pm (up to block 195663)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 15438 | 0 (0.00000) | 15131 | 307 | 112.68 | 0.01 | 23.13 | 112.66 | 0.017
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1426 | 0 (0.00000) | 1355 | 71 | 20.95 | 0.00 | 6.58 | 20.95 | 0.008
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 1955 | 0 (0.00000) | 1920 | 35 | 24.20 | 0.02 | 3.22 | 24.17 | 0.107
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2084 | 1 (0.00049) | 2042 | 41 | 46.68 | 8.06 | 4.15 | 38.62 | 17.273
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2252 | 1 (0.00045) | 2216 | 35 | 84.60 | 4.24 | 7.40 | 80.36 | 5.013
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 4921 | 2 (0.00041) | 4908 | 11 | 369.28 | 103.43 | 1.29 | 265.85 | 28.009
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7106 | 8 (0.00113) | 7076 | 22 | 616.28 | 124.33 | 55.64 | 491.94 | 20.175
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 8887 | 19 (0.00215) | 8818 | 50 | 1567.17 | 1274.61 | 44.25 | 292.56 | 81.332
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 8873 | 42 (0.00474) | 8817 | 14 | 1217.91 | 1277.24 | 13.11 | -59.33 | 104.871
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 12057 | 91 (0.00755) | 11959 | 7 | 2397.38 | 1754.37 | 9.35 | 643.00 | 73.179
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 23949 | 358 (0.01495) | 23584 | 7 | 7888.08 | 7349.88 | 1.80 | 538.19 | 93.177
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 12374 | 284 (0.02296) | 12084 | 6 | 4515.71 | 4670.04 | 15.00 | -154.32 | 103.418
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 21189 | 663 (0.03129) | 20523 | 3 | 5326.37 | 4511.52 | 9.24 | 814.85 | 84.702
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 13787 | 641 (0.04652) | 13139 | 7 | 6643.00 | 7952.25 | 24.99 | -1309.24 | 119.709
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 14130 | 875 (0.06194) | 13251 | 4 | 4475.46 | 3948.48 | 31.20 | 526.97 | 88.225
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 18579 | 1745 (0.09400) | 16818 | 16 | 9414.16 | 9505.99 | 7.01 | -91.82 | 100.975
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 72005 | 8870 (0.12322) | 63114 | 21 | 8729.95 | 7683.20 | 0.00 | 1046.75 | 88.010
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 18990 | 3573 (0.18827) | 15405 | 12 | 7605.15 | 7718.45 | 14.50 | -113.30 | 101.490
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 57430 | 13980 (0.24349) | 43435 | 15 | 25124.50 | 25352.20 | 347.79 | -227.70 | 100.906
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 46224 | 17026 (0.36864) | 29160 | 38 | 20690.46 | 20245.36 | 212.63 | 445.09 | 97.849
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 415529 | 202560 (0.48768) | 212796 | 173 | 243291.96 | 242124.36 | 2173.21 | 1167.60 | 99.520
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 159167 | 79230 (0.49825) | 79786 | 151 | 92802.44 | 90085.34 | 1045.21 | 2717.09 | 97.072
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 130730 | 96182 (0.73612) | 34478 | 70 | 126547.25 | 124450.67 | 467.98 | 2096.58 | 98.343
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 7156 | 5681 (0.79432) | 1471 | 4 | 16974.82 | 16858.80 | 400.00 | 116.02 | 99.316
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 5677 | 4837 (0.85309) | 833 | 7 | 6471.49 | 6340.47 | 400.00 | 131.02 | 97.975
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 2881 | 2637 (0.91690) | 239 | 5 | 4035.93 | 4052.29 | 0.00 | -16.35 | 100.405
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 6839 | 6571 (0.97943) | 138 | 130 | 15251.96 | 14973.98 | 239.20 | 277.98 | 98.177
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1058450 | 429094 | 628301 | 1055 | 255572.37 | 247900.86 | 139.64 | 7671.50 | 96.998
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 33185 | 16783 | 16195 | 207 | 356673.56 | 354468.81 | 5418.35 | 2204.74 | 99.382
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1091635 | 445877 | 644496 | 1262 | 612245.93 | 602369.68 | 5558.00 | 9876.25 | 98.387
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 9876.25330569 BTC (1.613%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 549.87382500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 9326.37948069 BTC (1.523%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 3512863 : SatoshiDice Tx: 2011384 (57.3%)
Blockchain MB: 1462.1 : SatoshiDice Tx: 823.3 (56.3%)

etotheipi

legendary

Activity: 1428

Merit: 1093

Core Armory Developer

Quote from: rocks on August 25, 2012, 01:49:32 AM

Great work putting this together, thanks.

The link to the code you refer to in the initial post "sample_armory_code.py", is no longer working. I'd love to check it out and try building/running it myself. Is there anywhere else where the code is posted?

Okay, I had never updated the script with the latest under-the-hood changes. I just updated it now and committed it to the master branch. Checkout/pull and try again.

Btw, did you compile the C++ libraries?

rocks

legendary

Activity: 1153

Merit: 1000

Great work putting this together, thanks.

The link to the code you refer to in the initial post "sample_armory_code.py", is no longer working. I'd love to check it out and try building/running it myself. Is there anywhere else where the code is posted?

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

This looks like the major contributor to the most recent SD profits - another martingale disaster:

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote

Results: 2012-Aug-24 02:11pm (up to block 195520)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 15344 | 0 (0.00000) | 15037 | 307 | 111.03 | 0.01 | 23.13 | 111.01 | 0.017
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1399 | 0 (0.00000) | 1328 | 71 | 20.78 | 0.00 | 6.58 | 20.78 | 0.008
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 1943 | 0 (0.00000) | 1908 | 35 | 24.14 | 0.02 | 3.22 | 24.11 | 0.107
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2070 | 1 (0.00049) | 2028 | 41 | 46.59 | 8.06 | 4.15 | 38.53 | 17.306
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2241 | 1 (0.00045) | 2205 | 35 | 84.54 | 4.24 | 7.40 | 80.30 | 5.017
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 4876 | 2 (0.00041) | 4863 | 11 | 369.08 | 103.43 | 1.29 | 265.65 | 28.024
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7093 | 8 (0.00113) | 7063 | 22 | 616.16 | 124.33 | 55.64 | 491.83 | 20.178
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 8849 | 19 (0.00216) | 8780 | 50 | 1566.56 | 1274.61 | 44.25 | 291.95 | 81.363
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 8850 | 42 (0.00475) | 8794 | 14 | 1216.75 | 1277.23 | 13.11 | -60.48 | 104.971
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 12029 | 90 (0.00749) | 11932 | 7 | 2396.30 | 1739.38 | 9.35 | 656.92 | 72.586
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 23770 | 354 (0.01490) | 23409 | 7 | 7826.24 | 7311.11 | 1.80 | 515.13 | 93.418
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 12365 | 284 (0.02298) | 12075 | 6 | 4515.60 | 4670.04 | 15.00 | -154.43 | 103.420
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 21182 | 663 (0.03130) | 20516 | 3 | 5325.84 | 4511.52 | 9.24 | 814.32 | 84.710
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 13733 | 641 (0.04670) | 13085 | 7 | 6639.46 | 7952.25 | 24.99 | -1312.78 | 119.772
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 14103 | 874 (0.06199) | 13225 | 4 | 4472.92 | 3947.67 | 31.20 | 525.24 | 88.257
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 18537 | 1740 (0.09392) | 16786 | 11 | 9399.76 | 9493.13 | 7.01 | -93.36 | 100.993
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 71601 | 8819 (0.12320) | 62761 | 21 | 8671.61 | 7617.68 | 0.00 | 1053.92 | 87.846
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 18840 | 3550 (0.18850) | 15283 | 7 | 7560.89 | 7677.31 | 14.50 | -116.42 | 101.540
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 56912 | 13844 (0.24332) | 43053 | 15 | 24943.46 | 25163.41 | 347.79 | -219.94 | 100.882
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 45224 | 16636 (0.36816) | 28551 | 37 | 19981.95 | 19494.16 | 212.63 | 487.79 | 97.559
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 410817 | 200255 (0.48766) | 210389 | 173 | 239567.86 | 238578.77 | 2173.21 | 989.08 | 99.587
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 158293 | 78768 (0.49808) | 79374 | 151 | 91889.58 | 89127.31 | 1045.21 | 2762.27 | 96.994
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 130149 | 95761 (0.73618) | 34318 | 70 | 125804.33 | 123792.33 | 467.98 | 2011.99 | 98.401
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 7092 | 5635 (0.79501) | 1453 | 4 | 16859.28 | 16747.14 | 400.00 | 112.13 | 99.335
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 5560 | 4741 (0.85362) | 813 | 6 | 6422.20 | 6289.76 | 400.00 | 132.44 | 97.938
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 2628 | 2403 (0.91613) | 220 | 5 | 3789.63 | 3795.32 | 0.00 | -5.69 | 100.150
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 6804 | 6536 (0.97932) | 138 | 130 | 15170.99 | 14892.67 | 239.20 | 278.32 | 98.165
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1049542 | 425103 | 623396 | 1043 | 252097.97 | 244496.05 | 139.64 | 7601.91 | 96.985
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 32762 | 16564 | 15991 | 207 | 353195.73 | 351096.95 | 5418.35 | 2098.77 | 99.406
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1082304 | 441667 | 639387 | 1250 | 605293.70 | 595593.01 | 5558.00 | 9700.69 | 98.397
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 9700.69396420 BTC (1.603%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 545.18237500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 9155.51158920 BTC (1.513%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 3477978 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1993272 (57.3%)
Blockchain MB: 1448.7 : SatoshiDice Tx: 815.9 (56.3%)

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: jamesg on August 24, 2012, 02:11:47 PM

Quote from: ingrownpocket on August 24, 2012, 02:07:38 PM

Quote from: dooglus on August 23, 2012, 02:38:35 PM

Although it is true that your lucky number will keep going up until it goes down. Unless it stays the same.

You almost got me there. Grin

dooglus only speaks the truth. Wink

A more honest way of speaking the same truth would be to say that us humans are very good at spotting patterns. Even in random sequences.

jamesg

vip

Activity: 1358

Merit: 1000

AKA: gigavps

Quote from: ingrownpocket on August 24, 2012, 02:07:38 PM

Quote from: dooglus on August 23, 2012, 02:38:35 PM

Although it is true that your lucky number will keep going up until it goes down. Unless it stays the same.

You almost got me there. Grin

dooglus only speaks the truth. Wink

ingrownpocket

legendary

Activity: 952

Merit: 1000

Quote from: dooglus on August 23, 2012, 02:38:35 PM

Although it is true that your lucky number will keep going up until it goes down. Unless it stays the same.

You almost got me there. Grin

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: mrvision on August 23, 2012, 12:57:36 PM

I was playing today (and loosing some coins) and i noticed that my lucky number was always bigger than the last one, and when it reached some number near 64000 it started again. So i suppose that the timestamp has a lot to do with the "secret".... or maybe coincidence.

Yeah, the timestamp has nothing to do with the magic number. All that is used to make the magic number is the daily secret (which changes only once per day) and the transaction id of your bet (which doesn't contain a timestamp). So it's just coincidence.

Although it is true that your lucky number will keep going up until it goes down. Unless it stays the same.

mrvision

sr. member

Activity: 527

Merit: 250

I was playing today (and loosing some coins) and i noticed that my lucky number was always bigger than the last one, and when it reached some number near 64000 it started again. So i suppose that the timestamp has a lot to do with the "secret".... or maybe coincidence.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

A nice 2k BTC profit for SD in the last 24 hours.

Looks like most of it came from a single address. Here are the biggest losers over the period:

<32000 31c4f5db22f2a432ea3637b1beb2536e78965d47806452848ff6da6bd1877909 1K7LiKpARZFGZwbHhL6GENTw8D9w7LfFug BET 53 LOSE
<32000 a9aad57cf63995cc37bd2b4390d9955a77e61795c65b77df4b98297e1ab757cc 1K7LiKpARZFGZwbHhL6GENTw8D9w7LfFug BET 134 LOSE
<32000 470e362ad4e3675d817e5e15486d30a369a653da8639d9a7e7f3b0fc1f96d142 1NZfuJLeq7jktGB1asESXTZqh8MBEE6hHb BET 151 LOSE
<32000 4883910410301a11bf9e069744f89821b5a10a4431f17d0b84896169311d8636 14wQQyNTFhyV1hauFMFXpeWhQ6PRFC2LzM BET 183 LOSE
<32000 d3ba562936a8e9231a2d35e536d0822ee034caf6e817503169ee79923a50e1b4 1Gx6kKam9Zx9h3zr1zs2Zn1exf44D5shxh BET 223 LOSE
<32000 c20ac7dab6727a0309099ff1d5e9d72d2a8d0d26a9773af469bf2d2fb0b51d70 1K7LiKpARZFGZwbHhL6GENTw8D9w7LfFug BET 234 LOSE
<32000 b6a1718fa559b7697eefd5b9e1df387a97608433770b9052c6f8954bd1621a7e 1FQdAgchLJcQbVbdKVGy2ALhySWya5ycp7 BET 249 LOSE
<32000 45f51a5388da94c53409ccf56e9f7618cd5807e0feedd7d2d874c526836b26c6 1K7LiKpARZFGZwbHhL6GENTw8D9w7LfFug BET 250 LOSE
<32000 d56ddbfa757a1e0e01a04669074dfd8d33bca7ed5d7922eca61cc9cb9df4dabf 1K7LiKpARZFGZwbHhL6GENTw8D9w7LfFug BET 250 LOSE

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote

Results: 2012-Aug-23 09:08am (up to block 195331)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 15259 | 0 (0.00000) | 14953 | 306 | 109.32 | 0.01 | 23.03 | 109.30 | 0.018
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1393 | 0 (0.00000) | 1322 | 71 | 20.55 | 0.00 | 6.58 | 20.55 | 0.009
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 1924 | 0 (0.00000) | 1889 | 35 | 23.89 | 0.02 | 3.22 | 23.87 | 0.108
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2061 | 1 (0.00050) | 2019 | 41 | 46.45 | 8.06 | 4.15 | 38.38 | 17.360
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2236 | 1 (0.00045) | 2200 | 35 | 84.03 | 4.23 | 7.40 | 79.79 | 5.045
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 4862 | 2 (0.00041) | 4849 | 11 | 368.12 | 103.43 | 1.29 | 264.69 | 28.097
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7060 | 8 (0.00114) | 7030 | 22 | 615.51 | 124.33 | 55.64 | 491.18 | 20.200
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 8803 | 19 (0.00217) | 8734 | 50 | 1564.48 | 1274.60 | 44.25 | 289.87 | 81.472
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 8819 | 42 (0.00477) | 8763 | 14 | 1215.00 | 1277.23 | 13.11 | -62.23 | 105.122
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 12002 | 90 (0.00750) | 11905 | 7 | 2391.92 | 1739.36 | 9.35 | 652.56 | 72.718
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 23662 | 352 (0.01488) | 23303 | 7 | 7801.77 | 7247.05 | 1.80 | 554.72 | 92.890
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 12314 | 284 (0.02307) | 12024 | 6 | 4513.07 | 4670.03 | 15.00 | -156.96 | 103.478
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 21170 | 663 (0.03132) | 20504 | 3 | 5321.90 | 4511.50 | 9.24 | 810.40 | 84.772
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 13710 | 640 (0.04671) | 13063 | 7 | 6634.86 | 7950.10 | 24.99 | -1315.23 | 119.823
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 14034 | 872 (0.06215) | 13159 | 3 | 4469.81 | 3947.55 | 31.20 | 522.26 | 88.316
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 18483 | 1735 (0.09392) | 16738 | 10 | 9391.73 | 9487.21 | 7.01 | -95.47 | 101.017
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 71260 | 8779 (0.12323) | 62460 | 21 | 8613.57 | 7568.72 | 0.00 | 1044.84 | 87.870
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 18744 | 3537 (0.18877) | 15200 | 7 | 7534.91 | 7640.74 | 14.50 | -105.83 | 101.405
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 56612 | 13773 (0.24333) | 42829 | 10 | 24867.46 | 25101.99 | 347.79 | -234.52 | 100.943
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 45007 | 16553 (0.36808) | 28418 | 36 | 19934.01 | 19457.93 | 212.63 | 476.07 | 97.612
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 407233 | 198472 (0.48757) | 208588 | 173 | 236317.65 | 235705.53 | 2173.21 | 612.11 | 99.741
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 157179 | 78221 (0.49812) | 78811 | 147 | 90747.58 | 88165.44 | 1045.21 | 2582.14 | 97.155
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 129056 | 94954 (0.73616) | 34032 | 70 | 124003.79 | 122001.59 | 467.98 | 2002.20 | 98.385
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 6918 | 5492 (0.79433) | 1422 | 4 | 16413.68 | 16243.66 | 400.00 | 170.02 | 98.964
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 5326 | 4548 (0.85473) | 773 | 5 | 6275.26 | 6155.76 | 400.00 | 119.50 | 98.096
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 2380 | 2177 (0.91663) | 198 | 5 | 3215.59 | 3224.66 | 0.00 | -9.06 | 100.282
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 6771 | 6504 (0.97937) | 137 | 130 | 15145.29 | 14866.91 | 239.20 | 278.37 | 98.162
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1041919 | 421374 | 619516 | 1029 | 248027.91 | 240462.30 | 139.54 | 7565.61 | 96.950
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 32359 | 16345 | 15807 | 207 | 349613.42 | 348015.47 | 5418.35 | 1597.95 | 99.543
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1074278 | 437719 | 635323 | 1236 | 597641.34 | 588477.77 | 5557.89 | 9163.56 | 98.467
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 9163.56807155 BTC (1.533%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 541.15817500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 8622.40989655 BTC (1.443%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 3438391 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1977396 (57.5%)
Blockchain MB: 1433.6 : SatoshiDice Tx: 809.5 (56.5%)

2112

legendary

Activity: 2128

Merit: 1073

Quote from: Mike Hearn on August 22, 2012, 03:54:39 PM

Fireduck is a skilled guy, ... But of course, SD might well be more fun

Especially since he knows the winning numbers for the next 10 years. There's always an opportunity for "self help."

Mike Hearn

legendary

Activity: 1526

Merit: 1134

The biggest cost of a site like this are opportunity costs for the creators. Fireduck is a skilled guy, you have to be to take my code which was designed solely with mobiles in mind and make it work on Amazon distributed storage. If you just look at server costs, maybe the site is quite profitable. If you assume he could have been working in a highly paid software engineering job or contracting, it's probably a loss maker. But of course, SD might well be more fun

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote

Results: 2012-Aug-22 09:16am (up to block 195165)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 15218 | 0 (0.00000) | 14913 | 305 | 108.54 | 0.01 | 22.93 | 108.52 | 0.018
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1387 | 0 (0.00000) | 1316 | 71 | 20.22 | 0.00 | 6.58 | 20.21 | 0.009
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 1923 | 0 (0.00000) | 1888 | 35 | 23.69 | 0.02 | 3.22 | 23.67 | 0.107
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2060 | 1 (0.00050) | 2018 | 41 | 46.05 | 8.06 | 4.15 | 37.98 | 17.508
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2233 | 1 (0.00045) | 2197 | 35 | 83.62 | 4.23 | 7.40 | 79.38 | 5.068
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 4860 | 2 (0.00041) | 4847 | 11 | 367.11 | 103.42 | 1.29 | 263.68 | 28.173
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7017 | 8 (0.00114) | 6987 | 22 | 608.87 | 124.30 | 55.64 | 484.56 | 20.416
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 8765 | 19 (0.00218) | 8696 | 50 | 1561.62 | 1274.60 | 44.25 | 287.02 | 81.620
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 8809 | 42 (0.00478) | 8753 | 14 | 1214.16 | 1277.23 | 13.11 | -63.06 | 105.194
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 11986 | 90 (0.00751) | 11889 | 7 | 2390.90 | 1739.36 | 9.35 | 651.53 | 72.749
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 23623 | 351 (0.01486) | 23265 | 7 | 7796.56 | 7243.84 | 1.80 | 552.72 | 92.911
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 12297 | 283 (0.02302) | 12008 | 6 | 4512.65 | 4667.90 | 15.00 | -155.25 | 103.440
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 21143 | 661 (0.03127) | 20479 | 3 | 5320.29 | 4503.51 | 9.24 | 816.78 | 84.648
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 13696 | 638 (0.04661) | 13051 | 7 | 6633.66 | 7938.37 | 24.99 | -1304.70 | 119.668
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 13991 | 869 (0.06212) | 13119 | 3 | 4465.36 | 3940.35 | 31.20 | 525.01 | 88.242
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 18425 | 1731 (0.09400) | 16684 | 10 | 9346.15 | 9482.59 | 7.01 | -136.44 | 101.460
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 71085 | 8758 (0.12324) | 62306 | 21 | 8579.53 | 7546.11 | 0.00 | 1033.41 | 87.955
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 18689 | 3526 (0.18874) | 15156 | 7 | 7521.91 | 7614.06 | 14.50 | -92.15 | 101.225
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 56311 | 13703 (0.24339) | 42598 | 10 | 24801.16 | 25033.05 | 347.79 | -231.88 | 100.935
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 44516 | 16379 (0.36823) | 28101 | 36 | 19895.85 | 19427.26 | 212.63 | 468.59 | 97.645
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 404792 | 197303 (0.48763) | 207316 | 173 | 224104.53 | 225486.55 | 2173.21 | -1382.01 | 100.617
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 156246 | 77777 (0.49825) | 78324 | 145 | 89102.78 | 86548.97 | 1045.21 | 2553.81 | 97.134
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 127441 | 93789 (0.73635) | 33582 | 70 | 120966.21 | 119045.44 | 467.98 | 1920.76 | 98.412
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 6836 | 5429 (0.79464) | 1403 | 4 | 16320.79 | 16156.83 | 400.00 | 163.95 | 98.995
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 5216 | 4451 (0.85415) | 760 | 5 | 6056.14 | 5917.74 | 400.00 | 138.40 | 97.715
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 2251 | 2057 (0.91585) | 189 | 5 | 2887.40 | 2884.34 | 0.00 | 3.06 | 99.894
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 6740 | 6473 (0.97927) | 137 | 130 | 15106.80 | 14828.27 | 239.20 | 278.53 | 98.156
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1035923 | 418409 | 616488 | 1026 | 244032.45 | 236615.03 | 139.43 | 7417.42 | 96.960
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 31633 | 15932 | 15494 | 207 | 335810.22 | 336181.50 | 5418.35 | -371.28 | 100.111
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1067556 | 434341 | 631982 | 1233 | 579842.67 | 572796.53 | 5557.79 | 7046.14 | 98.785
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 7046.14451581 BTC (1.215%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 537.75015000 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 6508.39436581 BTC (1.122%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 3405684 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1964265 (57.7%)
Blockchain MB: 1420.6 : SatoshiDice Tx: 804.1 (56.6%)

Since Bitcoin started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 6289478 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1964265 (31.2%)
Blockchain MB: 2571.4 : SatoshiDice Tx: 804.1 (31.3%)

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: gmaxwell on August 20, 2012, 06:41:54 PM

A plan for extreme profit:
(1) Create highly blockchain visible service
(2) Use it yourself in high volume to create the appearance of large income
(3) Raise 34500 BTC from selling shares in an IPO
(4) PROFIT!

I don't have any reason to believe this to be the case here— beyond a remaining flicker of hope that so many of my fellow men are not actually stupid enough to throw away thousands of BTC on what is apparently the least entertaining gambling site ever created— but nor can I exclude that possibility from the data made available.

The opposite had occurred to me in the past, that perhaps the sudden staggering losses were the site's way of hiding their obscene profits by deliberately winning 'from themselves'. That wouldn't make any sense to do when trying to sell shares though of course.

Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 70. (Read 192896 times)