Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 67. (Read 192889 times)

I notice that the less than 3000 is a consistent loser for Satoshidice. I wonder why that is? Perhaps someone has found a very good strategy that works with a 21x multiplier. If you notice, the max bet for less than 3000 is actually smaller than the max bet for less than 2000. In all other cases the max bet goes up (or stays at max 250) as the multiplier decreases.

Looks like he pretty much broke even:

It's surprising how quick the bet size increases when you're doubling.  I was aware of myself rushing to bet as quick as I could so I wouldn't have time to stop myself.  And also aware of how stupid I was being.

I got lucky, and really hope I can hold on to my winnings.


Isn't that exactly the right time to stop?

I'll post an updated graph once the script finishes running, in an attempt to get us back on-topic. 

Sorry, Satoshi Dice isn't letting you play with enough coin then.

Looks like the whale is back...

 

Details   Processed   Bet   Bet Tx   Pay Tx   Address   Pay Status   Bet Amount   Result   Payment Amount   Lucky

Details   2012-09-19 01:25:23   lessthan 16000   fb661670   2e1996bc   13D2n1t   PENDING   215.00000000   LOSE   1.07450000   48127
Details   2012-09-19 01:24:54   lessthan 16000   244cebac   b1f67a09   13D2n1t   PENDING   215.00000000   LOSE   1.07450000   18188
Details   2012-09-19 01:23:42   lessthan 16000   b40f7d11   6034716a   13D2n1t   PENDING   200.00000000   LOSE   0.99950000   47050
Details   2012-09-19 01:17:19   lessthan 32000   115490cb   ebd0c021   13D2n1t   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   WIN   500.96150000   14107
Details   2012-09-19 01:16:41   lessthan 32000   65ea1a91   870ffbbb   13D2n1t   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   LOSE   1.24950000   44256
Details   2012-09-19 01:12:33   lessthan 32000   b29497f9   eeb59a7f   13D2n1t   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   WIN   500.96150000   31353
Details   2012-09-19 01:11:10   lessthan 32000   3b0ea5c5   fe1e1638   13D2n1t   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   WIN   500.96150000   3830
Details   2012-09-19 01:10:44   lessthan 32000   e7a84423   faa8fe0e   13D2n1t   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   LOSE   1.24950000   52194
Details   2012-09-19 01:09:46   lessthan 32000   020b54e2   2389fe72   13D2n1t   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   LOSE   1.24950000   63716
Details   2012-09-18 21:46:20   lessthan 32000   5fad9ea9   8a4e89ee   13D2n1t   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   WIN   500.96150000   7141
Details   2012-09-18 21:36:34   lessthan 32000   a725220c   76e0b2f1   13D2n1t   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   WIN   500.96150000   29321
Details   2012-09-18 21:35:02   lessthan 32000   a9883ae2   cfbc0b9e   13D2n1t   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   WIN   500.96150000   12317
Details   2012-09-18 21:34:12   lessthan 32000   7ae48528   56db31c8   13D2n1t   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   LOSE   1.24950000   40164
Details   2012-09-18 21:33:35   lessthan 32000   a6405952   5aa2e924   13D2n1t   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   LOSE   1.24950000   54229


http://blockchain.info/address/13D2n1tA6oJ56EG7SkzSsG9zEwwfo1v63k

I just started too and it is such an amazing thrill. I think I've only reached a 40 BTC bet at one point though.
The worst part is that I can't stop now because I'm still ahead.

Yeah Doog... saw that post.  Creepy as all get out.  It's like they're mocking you for doing the impossible and getting a 0 because it's freaky!

A cautionary congrats on that bet!  I certainly know I've never dared risk that much coin on any bets I've done - then again I've not really owned tons so dumping 30+ at once for me is pretty much a no-go... Oh I can imagine sweating and being quite nervous doing that for sure! 

I think I was prepared to go up to the maximum bet.  Even if you have lots of coin you still run up against the house limits eventually.  I was only 2 doubles away from the 250 BTC max (which is why I started at 0.122 - it reaches just less than 250 BTC if you keep doubling).

Bets get big very quickly.

It's just that you guys aren't playing with enough coin.

I've often posted logs of silly martingale sequences in the past, marvelling at how anyone could be so foolish as to keep doubling their bet over and over.  I never before experienced it first hand - until now.

I was physically shaking as I entered the last couple of bets.  I've never before bet over $600 on the roll of a dice.  I got lucky, and really think I ought to retire from this game now.  It's quite a buzz, but too dangerous for my liking:

You're welcome.

A while back somebody asked whether anyone had ever rolled a 0.  I found a bunch of examples of people rolling zeroes.

When you look at the 'details' page for a bet that rolled 0, you see a weird animation of a monkey wearing a human mask.  It's kind of creepy.  

Edit: found the post and an example 0 roll.

A simple answer given and broken down by tons of statistics... yep, I'm in the right thread haha.  Thanks Dooglus!

Or, 16*16*16*16.

Or, 256*256.

Etc.

Here is an easy way to remember the range of Satoshi Dice numbers: 2^16, or just open calculator and spam 2*2*2*2...until you find the 65k number

The 'lucky number' is pseudo-randomly chosen between 0 and 65535 inclusive.

There are 65536 different possible values for the lucky number.

When you play "lessthan 1" there is 1 chance in 65536 that you'll win.

It pays out 64000 times your bet.

When you lose, they pay out 0.005 times your bet.

From this we can see that the expected payout per bitcoin bet is (64000*1 + 0.005*65535) / 65536, or roughly 0.98156 BTC.  That's an expected return of 98.156%, as stated on their home page.

You can roll a 0, but it's unlikely. That's why the payout is so high.

Question because I don't recall seeing it mentioned anywhere specific...  Is the winning range on SD from 0 to 65535 or 0.00000 and so forth to 65535.0?

If it's rolling whole numbers than unless it rolls a 0, how else can you possibly win the less than 1 bet?  1 would be the lowest you could roll in theory.