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Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 66. (Read 192889 times)

dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 22, 2012, 11:26:38 PM
#311
Quote
Results: 2012-Sep-22 08:24pm (up to block 200093)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    21475 |      0 (0.00000) |  21114 |     361 |     187.30 |       0.01 |    32.06 |    187.28 |   0.010
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1779 |      0 (0.00000) |   1705 |      74 |      24.87 |       0.00 |     7.38 |     24.87 |   0.007
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     2373 |      0 (0.00000) |   2336 |      37 |      29.90 |       0.02 |     4.22 |     29.87 |   0.094
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     2509 |      1 (0.00041) |   2464 |      44 |      52.18 |       8.06 |     5.65 |     44.11 |  15.457
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     2536 |      1 (0.00040) |   2499 |      36 |      91.60 |       4.25 |     7.40 |     87.35 |   4.640
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     5503 |      3 (0.00055) |   5488 |      12 |     380.86 |     303.32 |     1.29 |     77.53 |  79.642
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     7884 |      8 (0.00102) |   7854 |      22 |     646.95 |     124.39 |    55.64 |    522.55 |  19.228
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    10025 |     19 (0.00191) |   9950 |      56 |    1598.47 |    1274.64 |    44.25 |    323.83 |  79.741
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     9907 |     43 (0.00435) |   9850 |      14 |    1286.44 |    1302.34 |    13.11 |    -15.89 | 101.235
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    15198 |    116 (0.00764) |  15073 |       9 |    2650.81 |    2009.84 |     9.35 |    640.97 |  75.820
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    29217 |    434 (0.01486) |  28771 |      12 |    8309.92 |    7686.62 |     1.80 |    623.30 |  92.499
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    15045 |    343 (0.02281) |  14696 |       6 |    4701.15 |    4858.80 |    15.00 |   -157.64 | 103.353
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    22610 |    698 (0.03088) |  21908 |       4 |    5481.89 |    4645.75 |     9.24 |    836.14 |  84.747
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    15201 |    701 (0.04614) |  14492 |       8 |    6793.54 |    8063.01 |    24.99 |  -1269.46 | 118.686
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    15817 |    979 (0.06191) |  14834 |       4 |    4641.38 |    4118.99 |    31.20 |    522.38 |  88.745
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    20992 |   1969 (0.09388) |  19005 |      18 |   10022.88 |    9962.58 |     7.01 |     60.29 |  99.398
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    83399 |  10258 (0.12303) |  73118 |      23 |   10247.56 |    8824.69 |     0.00 |   1422.87 |  86.115
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    20995 |   3934 (0.18749) |  17048 |      13 |    8211.54 |    8409.83 |    14.50 |   -198.28 | 102.415
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    80627 |  19635 (0.24360) |  60969 |      23 |   48024.73 |   46831.00 |   347.79 |   1193.72 |  97.514
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    60220 |  22099 (0.36725) |  38076 |      45 |   29692.01 |   28915.74 |   212.64 |    776.27 |  97.386
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   521976 | 254445 (0.48787) | 267102 |     429 |  315516.70 |  314027.34 |  2173.41 |   1489.36 |  99.528
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   192911 |  96141 (0.49880) |  96602 |     168 |  186326.39 |  185288.24 |  1295.21 |   1038.14 |  99.443
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   150014 | 110349 (0.73596) |  39590 |      75 |  147575.30 |  145612.95 |   467.98 |   1962.35 |  98.670
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    11961 |   9504 (0.79505) |   2450 |       7 |   20362.73 |   20256.71 |   400.00 |    106.02 |  99.479
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    11323 |   9684 (0.85684) |   1618 |      21 |   11150.91 |   10886.44 |   400.00 |    264.47 |  97.628
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     5541 |   5069 (0.91597) |    465 |       7 |    9823.74 |    9751.33 |     0.00 |     72.40 |  99.263
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     7594 |   7305 (0.97988) |    150 |     139 |   16307.07 |   16029.29 |   239.21 |    277.77 |  98.297
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1299641 | 531048           | 767135 |    1458 |  325637.62 |  316755.91 |   147.09 |   8881.70 |  97.273
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    44991 |  22690           |  22092 |     209 |  524501.34 |  522440.37 |  5673.35 |   2060.97 |  99.607
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1344632 | 553738           | 789227 |    1667 |  850138.96 |  839196.28 |  5820.45 |  10942.67 |  98.713
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      10942.67748855 BTC (1.287%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         677.39140000 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       10265.28608855 BTC (1.207%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  4446310  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 2492604  (56.1%)
Blockchain MB:  1843.5  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1018.5  (55.2%)

nameface
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 22, 2012, 04:23:24 PM
#310
Quote from: SNS on September 21, 2012, 12:28:29 PM
Yes, everyday I check your updates. This is very useful information for investors and for SD players!
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 21, 2012, 08:21:16 PM
#309
Quote from: nibor on September 21, 2012, 05:27:28 PM
Do you not have a machine to run script on every day and just upload to Amazon S3 or something? That is all bitcoinstatus.rowit.co.uk does.


I don't.  But I'll get one.  Good idea.
nibor
sr. member
Activity: 438
Merit: 291
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 21, 2012, 05:27:28 PM
#308
Do you not have a machine to run script on every day and just upload to Amazon S3 or something? That is all bitcoinstatus.rowit.co.uk does.
BlueCombWindow
newbie
Activity: 33
Merit: 0
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 21, 2012, 04:54:50 PM
#307
I visit this thread regularly.
Bugpowder
sr. member
Activity: 394
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 21, 2012, 03:32:53 PM
#306
I also check multiple times a day.  It's my favorite thread on bitcointalk.
Fizzgig
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 21, 2012, 02:38:56 PM
#305
I check several times daily.  Grin
ingrownpocket
legendary
Activity: 952
Merit: 1000
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 21, 2012, 01:30:19 PM
#304
Quote from: SNS on September 21, 2012, 12:28:29 PM
Yes, everyday I check your updates. This is very useful information for investors and for SD players!
SNS
sr. member
Activity: 516
Merit: 252
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 21, 2012, 12:28:29 PM
#303
Yes, everyday I check your updates. This is very useful information for investors and for SD players!
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 21, 2012, 12:05:42 PM
#302
I missed updating the stats yesterday.  Does anyone care?  I've mostly been updating daily but will probably reduce the frequency of my updates unless anyone really wants daily posts.

Quote
Results: 2012-Sep-21 09:02am (up to block 199857)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    21333 |      0 (0.00000) |  20973 |     360 |     185.59 |       0.01 |    31.56 |    185.57 |   0.010
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1773 |      0 (0.00000) |   1700 |      73 |      24.85 |       0.00 |     6.88 |     24.84 |   0.007
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     2364 |      0 (0.00000) |   2328 |      36 |      29.28 |       0.02 |     3.72 |     29.25 |   0.091
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     2504 |      1 (0.00041) |   2459 |      44 |      51.73 |       8.06 |     5.65 |     43.66 |  15.588
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     2529 |      1 (0.00040) |   2492 |      36 |      90.83 |       4.24 |     7.40 |     86.59 |   4.677
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     5495 |      3 (0.00055) |   5480 |      12 |     380.39 |     303.32 |     1.29 |     77.06 |  79.740
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     7870 |      8 (0.00102) |   7840 |      22 |     646.04 |     124.39 |    55.64 |    521.65 |  19.254
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    10005 |     19 (0.00191) |   9931 |      55 |    1598.04 |    1274.64 |    44.25 |    323.39 |  79.763
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     9896 |     43 (0.00435) |   9839 |      14 |    1285.97 |    1302.33 |    13.11 |    -16.36 | 101.272
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    15162 |    116 (0.00766) |  15037 |       9 |    2646.01 |    2009.82 |     9.35 |    636.19 |  75.957
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    28997 |    434 (0.01497) |  28551 |      12 |    8296.20 |    7686.62 |     1.80 |    609.58 |  92.652
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    15029 |    343 (0.02283) |  14680 |       6 |    4698.85 |    4858.79 |    15.00 |   -159.94 | 103.404
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    22553 |    697 (0.03091) |  21852 |       4 |    5480.46 |    4645.11 |     9.24 |    835.35 |  84.758
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    15176 |    699 (0.04608) |  14469 |       8 |    6779.52 |    8058.47 |    24.99 |  -1278.95 | 118.865
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    15780 |    977 (0.06193) |  14799 |       4 |    4639.17 |    4117.14 |    31.20 |    522.02 |  88.748
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    20938 |   1963 (0.09383) |  18957 |      18 |    9995.21 |    9892.00 |     7.01 |    103.21 |  98.967
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    82958 |  10201 (0.12300) |  72735 |      22 |   10138.46 |    8699.54 |     0.00 |   1438.91 |  85.807
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    20925 |   3924 (0.18764) |  16988 |      13 |    8186.12 |    8371.07 |    14.50 |   -184.95 | 102.259
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    79884 |  19438 (0.24340) |  60423 |      23 |   47749.73 |   46391.37 |   347.79 |   1358.35 |  97.155
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    59983 |  22015 (0.36730) |  37923 |      45 |   29279.50 |   28549.75 |   212.64 |    729.75 |  97.508
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   516826 | 251983 (0.48796) | 264416 |     427 |  311961.81 |  310733.10 |  2173.40 |   1228.70 |  99.606
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   192115 |  95718 (0.49867) |  96230 |     167 |  185752.15 |  184609.12 |  1295.21 |   1143.02 |  99.385
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   149285 | 109818 (0.73600) |  39392 |      75 |  143927.70 |  141561.27 |   467.98 |   2366.42 |  98.356
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    11816 |   9387 (0.79490) |   2422 |       7 |   20251.96 |   20147.49 |   400.00 |    104.46 |  99.484
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    11256 |   9628 (0.85696) |   1607 |      21 |   11038.72 |   10818.42 |   400.00 |    220.30 |  98.004
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     5474 |   5009 (0.91622) |    458 |       7 |    9670.12 |    9590.18 |     0.00 |     79.94 |  99.173
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     7562 |   7274 (0.97993) |    149 |     139 |   16276.39 |   15998.77 |   239.21 |    277.62 |  98.294
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1290838 | 527194           | 762194 |    1450 |  322858.07 |  314067.43 |   145.59 |   8790.63 |  97.277
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    44650 |  22505           |  21936 |     209 |  518202.84 |  515687.74 |  5673.35 |   2515.10 |  99.515
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1335488 | 549699           | 784130 |    1659 |  841060.92 |  829755.18 |  5818.95 |  11305.74 |  98.656
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      11305.74431106 BTC (1.344%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         672.77172500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       10632.97258606 BTC (1.264%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  4411969  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 2475751  (56.1%)
Blockchain MB:  1827.6  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1011.4  (55.3%)

organofcorti
donator
Activity: 2058
Merit: 1007
Poor impulse control.
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 20, 2012, 08:07:35 AM
#301
Quote from: ingrownpocket on September 20, 2012, 08:00:19 AM
The question is how many times can you lose in a row and lose all your money.

That question has already been answered: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/satoshi-dice-how-to-last-longer-94481
ingrownpocket
legendary
Activity: 952
Merit: 1000
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 20, 2012, 08:00:19 AM
#300
Quote from: boonies4u on September 20, 2012, 07:10:00 AM
Quote from: dooglus on September 20, 2012, 03:00:32 AM
Quote from: zvs on September 19, 2012, 06:52:39 AM
my favorite is the 8000, with initial bet of 0.001 and increasing by 20% after the first lost, and 15% each time thereafter.  the first pays for the tx fees, the other times, well, it sucks to bet 10 and only win a little over a bitpenny

I tried it your way, 3 times.  I started at 0.015 and added on 15% each time.

The first 2 went pretty quickly, but the 3rd took 20 turns before I won.  Seems like a lot of stress and effort to make a profit of 17 bitcents.  Smiley

http://i.imgur.com/b0PNn.png

The question is how many times can you make 17 bitcents in an hour? Tongue

The question is how many times can you lose in a row and lose all your money.
boonies4u
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 1000
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 20, 2012, 07:10:00 AM
#299
Quote from: dooglus on September 20, 2012, 03:00:32 AM
Quote from: zvs on September 19, 2012, 06:52:39 AM
my favorite is the 8000, with initial bet of 0.001 and increasing by 20% after the first lost, and 15% each time thereafter.  the first pays for the tx fees, the other times, well, it sucks to bet 10 and only win a little over a bitpenny

I tried it your way, 3 times.  I started at 0.015 and added on 15% each time.

The first 2 went pretty quickly, but the 3rd took 20 turns before I won.  Seems like a lot of stress and effort to make a profit of 17 bitcents.  Smiley



The question is how many times can you make 17 bitcents in an hour? Tongue
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 20, 2012, 03:00:32 AM
#298
Quote from: zvs on September 19, 2012, 06:52:39 AM
my favorite is the 8000, with initial bet of 0.001 and increasing by 20% after the first lost, and 15% each time thereafter.  the first pays for the tx fees, the other times, well, it sucks to bet 10 and only win a little over a bitpenny

I tried it your way, 3 times.  I started at 0.015 and added on 15% each time.

The first 2 went pretty quickly, but the 3rd took 20 turns before I won.  Seems like a lot of stress and effort to make a profit of 17 bitcents.  Smiley

dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 19, 2012, 08:46:43 PM
#297
Quote
Results: 2012-Sep-19 05:25pm (up to block 199596)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    21131 |      0 (0.00000) |  20771 |     360 |     183.76 |       0.01 |    31.56 |    183.74 |   0.011
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1759 |      0 (0.00000) |   1686 |      73 |      24.74 |       0.00 |     6.88 |     24.74 |   0.007
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     2351 |      0 (0.00000) |   2315 |      36 |      29.17 |       0.02 |     3.72 |     29.15 |   0.091
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     2489 |      1 (0.00041) |   2444 |      44 |      51.59 |       8.06 |     5.65 |     43.52 |  15.631
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     2518 |      1 (0.00040) |   2481 |      36 |      90.73 |       4.24 |     7.40 |     86.48 |   4.682
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     5471 |      3 (0.00055) |   5456 |      12 |     379.65 |     303.32 |     1.29 |     76.32 |  79.895
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     7835 |      8 (0.00102) |   7805 |      22 |     645.69 |     124.39 |    55.64 |    521.30 |  19.265
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |     9988 |     19 (0.00191) |   9914 |      55 |    1597.76 |    1274.64 |    44.25 |    323.12 |  79.777
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     9875 |     43 (0.00436) |   9818 |      14 |    1285.69 |    1302.33 |    13.11 |    -16.64 | 101.294
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    15096 |    116 (0.00769) |  14971 |       9 |    2642.30 |    2009.82 |     9.35 |    632.48 |  76.063
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    28863 |    432 (0.01497) |  28420 |      11 |    8294.91 |    7685.78 |     1.80 |    609.12 |  92.657
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    15000 |    341 (0.02274) |  14653 |       6 |    4698.32 |    4854.95 |    15.00 |   -156.63 | 103.334
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    22511 |    696 (0.03092) |  21811 |       4 |    5479.17 |    4643.51 |     9.24 |    835.66 |  84.748
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    15154 |    698 (0.04608) |  14448 |       8 |    6779.32 |    8057.40 |    24.99 |  -1278.08 | 118.853
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    15727 |    969 (0.06163) |  14754 |       4 |    4638.01 |    4114.85 |    31.20 |    523.16 |  88.720
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    20868 |   1958 (0.09391) |  18892 |      18 |    9992.52 |    9889.43 |     7.01 |    103.08 |  98.968
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    81908 |  10085 (0.12316) |  71801 |      22 |   10084.27 |    8661.08 |     0.00 |   1423.18 |  85.887
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    20841 |   3908 (0.18763) |  16920 |      13 |    8165.68 |    8366.85 |    14.50 |   -201.16 | 102.464
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    78889 |  19205 (0.24351) |  59662 |      22 |   46826.73 |   45709.89 |   347.79 |   1116.84 |  97.615
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    59572 |  21873 (0.36745) |  37654 |      45 |   29206.23 |   28482.21 |   212.64 |    724.02 |  97.521
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   511103 | 249212 (0.48800) | 261466 |     425 |  309351.09 |  308110.39 |  2173.40 |   1240.70 |  99.599
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   190078 |  94690 (0.49860) |  95222 |     166 |  184618.68 |  183185.36 |  1295.21 |   1433.32 |  99.224
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   148363 | 109128 (0.73592) |  39160 |      75 |  141367.38 |  139280.82 |   467.98 |   2086.55 |  98.524
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    11619 |   9229 (0.79478) |   2383 |       7 |   20180.56 |   20075.05 |   400.00 |    105.50 |  99.477
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    11162 |   9554 (0.85748) |   1588 |      20 |   10956.04 |   10736.09 |   400.00 |    219.94 |  97.992
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     5328 |   4871 (0.91543) |    450 |       7 |    9262.81 |    9216.24 |     0.00 |     46.57 |  99.497
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     7532 |   7247 (0.97999) |    148 |     137 |   16269.22 |   15991.98 |   239.21 |    277.24 |  98.296
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1278622 | 521906           | 755274 |    1442 |  319619.28 |  310879.05 |   145.59 |   8740.22 |  97.265
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    44409 |  22381           |  21819 |     209 |  513482.88 |  511209.78 |  5673.35 |   2273.09 |  99.557
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1323031 | 544287           | 777093 |    1651 |  833102.16 |  822088.83 |  5818.95 |  11013.32 |  98.678
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      11013.32602137 BTC (1.322%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         666.51117500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       10346.81484637 BTC (1.242%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  4360136  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 2452190  (56.2%)
Blockchain MB:  1806.2  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1001.6  (55.5%)

dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 19, 2012, 01:40:21 PM
#296
Quote from: Bugpowder on September 19, 2012, 08:45:05 AM
Best strat is don't play. Second best is max bet one time.

Agreed.  The more you play, the closer you get to losing 1.9% of everything you bet.  So bet as few times as possible.  That's the "best" strategy if you want to minimise losses.  But I think people also want to maximise intangibles like "fun", "buzz", "excitement" and "hope".

Quote
Given the number of bet odds subsets, and the total number of
Bets, odds are at least one of the subsets is a loser for s.dice, for now.  This is why you can only use pre declared subgroups in your analysis of treatment efficacy durin clinical trials. This is a great case study in how Post-hoc analysis can mislead.

I'm having a lot of trouble parsing that.  The first line seems to be truncated.  Are you saying that you should decide which bets to focus on before looking at the data; that it makes no sense to focus on "<3000" just because it happened to be the worst performing bet?

It's like people compiling stats on which numbers come up most often in the lottery, and betting those numbers.  Some numbers are bound to come up more often than others in the short term, just because it's random, but the fact that they do is meaningless in terms of predictive power.
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 19, 2012, 01:34:44 PM
#295
Quote from: zvs on September 19, 2012, 06:52:39 AM
hmm, you were betting 'under 24000' though, so each time you doubled up, your profit also increased.  You'd only need to increase your bet about 35% each time...   So you made about 40 bitcoins profit?   martingale as it's defined would have resulted in a gain of just 0.122... and a bet of ~0.165 on your 2nd round..

ed:  well, wait, I'm wrong, since your initial bet was 0.122, you were trying to win 0.326, so the 0.326 + bets already lost is what you would bet for on each subsequent round

my favorite is the 8000, with initial bet of 0.001 and increasing by 20% after the first lost, and 15% each time thereafter.  the first pays for the tx fees, the other times, well,

I realise I didn't need to double up, but I didn't want to be risking 62.5 coins just to win 0.112 coin...  I wanted the profits to increase along with the risk.  Like you said:

Quote
it sucks to bet 10 and only win a little over a bitpenny

I ran your favourite through my Python script to see the odds and I like it too.  The output is kind of ugly, but what it tells me is that so long as you have 873 coins in your wallet, you will only lose if you lose 84 bets in a row (which happens 0.002% of the time - or 1 in 50,000 plays.

In the following:
  bet = how much to bet on each turn
  spent = total of bets so far
  win = payout if that bet wins
  lose = payout if that bet loses
  back = total of losing payouts from previous losing bets
  profit = overall profit if that bet wins

Edit: the following doesn't take transaction fees into account.  I was never betting small enough that transaction fees were significant, but you apparently are.  Every time you bet less than a bitcent the satoshi client will ask you to include a 0.0005 fee at least.

Code:
win on turn  1 : bet =   0.00100000, spent =   0.00100000, win =   0.00750039, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000000, profit =   0.00650039 (87.793% to lose all)
win on turn  2 : bet =   0.00120000, spent =   0.00220000, win =   0.00910047, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000001, profit =   0.00690048 (77.076% to lose all)
win on turn  3 : bet =   0.00138000, spent =   0.00358000, win =   0.01054054, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000002, profit =   0.00696056 (67.667% to lose all)
win on turn  4 : bet =   0.00158700, spent =   0.00516700, win =   0.01219662, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000003, profit =   0.00702965 (59.407% to lose all)
win on turn  5 : bet =   0.00182505, spent =   0.00699205, win =   0.01410111, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000004, profit =   0.00710910 (52.155% to lose all)
win on turn  6 : bet =   0.00209881, spent =   0.00909086, win =   0.01629128, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000005, profit =   0.00720047 (45.789% to lose all)
win on turn  7 : bet =   0.00241363, spent =   0.01150449, win =   0.01880997, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000006, profit =   0.00730554 (40.199% to lose all)
win on turn  8 : bet =   0.00277567, spent =   0.01428016, win =   0.02170647, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000007, profit =   0.00742638 (35.292% to lose all)
win on turn  9 : bet =   0.00319202, spent =   0.01747218, win =   0.02503744, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000008, profit =   0.00756534 (30.984% to lose all)
win on turn 10 : bet =   0.00367083, spent =   0.02114301, win =   0.02886805, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000009, profit =   0.00772513 (27.202% to lose all)
win on turn 11 : bet =   0.00422145, spent =   0.02536446, win =   0.03327326, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000010, profit =   0.00790890 (23.881% to lose all)
win on turn 12 : bet =   0.00485467, spent =   0.03021913, win =   0.03833925, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000011, profit =   0.00812023 (20.966% to lose all)
win on turn 13 : bet =   0.00558287, spent =   0.03580200, win =   0.04416514, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000012, profit =   0.00836326 (18.407% to lose all)
win on turn 14 : bet =   0.00642030, spent =   0.04222230, win =   0.05086491, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000013, profit =   0.00864274 (16.160% to lose all)
win on turn 15 : bet =   0.00738335, spent =   0.04960565, win =   0.05856965, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000014, profit =   0.00896414 (14.187% to lose all)
win on turn 16 : bet =   0.00849085, spent =   0.05809649, win =   0.06743010, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000015, profit =   0.00933376 (12.455% to lose all)
win on turn 17 : bet =   0.00976447, spent =   0.06786097, win =   0.07761961, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000016, profit =   0.00975880 (10.935% to lose all)
win on turn 18 : bet =   0.01122915, spent =   0.07909011, win =   0.08933756, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000017, profit =   0.01024762 ( 9.600% to lose all)
win on turn 19 : bet =   0.01291352, spent =   0.09200363, win =   0.10281319, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000018, profit =   0.01080974 ( 8.428% to lose all)
win on turn 20 : bet =   0.01485054, spent =   0.10685417, win =   0.11831017, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000019, profit =   0.01145619 ( 7.399% to lose all)
win on turn 21 : bet =   0.01707813, spent =   0.12393230, win =   0.13613170, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000020, profit =   0.01219960 ( 6.496% to lose all)
win on turn 22 : bet =   0.01963984, spent =   0.14357214, win =   0.15662645, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000021, profit =   0.01305452 ( 5.703% to lose all)
win on turn 23 : bet =   0.02258582, spent =   0.16615797, win =   0.18019542, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000022, profit =   0.01403767 ( 5.007% to lose all)
win on turn 24 : bet =   0.02597369, spent =   0.19213166, win =   0.20729974, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000023, profit =   0.01516831 ( 4.396% to lose all)
win on turn 25 : bet =   0.02986975, spent =   0.22200141, win =   0.23846970, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000024, profit =   0.01646853 ( 3.859% to lose all)
win on turn 26 : bet =   0.03435021, spent =   0.25635162, win =   0.27431515, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000025, profit =   0.01796378 ( 3.388% to lose all)
win on turn 27 : bet =   0.03950274, spent =   0.29585436, win =   0.31553743, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000026, profit =   0.01968333 ( 2.974% to lose all)
win on turn 28 : bet =   0.04542815, spent =   0.34128252, win =   0.36294304, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000027, profit =   0.02166079 ( 2.611% to lose all)
win on turn 29 : bet =   0.05224238, spent =   0.39352490, win =   0.41745950, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000028, profit =   0.02393488 ( 2.293% to lose all)
win on turn 30 : bet =   0.06007873, spent =   0.45360363, win =   0.48015342, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000029, profit =   0.02655008 ( 2.013% to lose all)
win on turn 31 : bet =   0.06909054, spent =   0.52269418, win =   0.55225144, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000030, profit =   0.02955756 ( 1.767% to lose all)
win on turn 32 : bet =   0.07945413, spent =   0.60214830, win =   0.63516415, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000031, profit =   0.03301616 ( 1.551% to lose all)
win on turn 33 : bet =   0.09137225, spent =   0.69352055, win =   0.73051378, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000032, profit =   0.03699355 ( 1.362% to lose all)
win on turn 34 : bet =   0.10507808, spent =   0.79859863, win =   0.84016584, lose =   0.00002539, back =   0.00000033, profit =   0.04156754 ( 1.196% to lose all)
win on turn 35 : bet =   0.12083979, spent =   0.91943842, win =   0.96626572, lose =   0.00010419, back =   0.00002572, profit =   0.04685302 ( 1.050% to lose all)
win on turn 36 : bet =   0.13896576, spent =   1.05840419, win =   1.11128058, lose =   0.00019482, back =   0.00012991, profit =   0.05300630 ( 0.922% to lose all)
win on turn 37 : bet =   0.15981063, spent =   1.21821482, win =   1.27804767, lose =   0.00029905, back =   0.00032473, profit =   0.06015758 ( 0.809% to lose all)
win on turn 38 : bet =   0.18378222, spent =   1.40199704, win =   1.46982982, lose =   0.00041891, back =   0.00062378, profit =   0.06845656 ( 0.710% to lose all)
win on turn 39 : bet =   0.21134956, spent =   1.61334659, win =   1.69037929, lose =   0.00055674, back =   0.00104269, profit =   0.07807539 ( 0.624% to lose all)
win on turn 40 : bet =   0.24305199, spent =   1.85639858, win =   1.94401118, lose =   0.00071525, back =   0.00159943, profit =   0.08921203 ( 0.548% to lose all)
win on turn 41 : bet =   0.27950979, spent =   2.13590837, win =   2.23568786, lose =   0.00089754, back =   0.00231468, profit =   0.10209417 ( 0.481% to lose all)
win on turn 42 : bet =   0.32143626, spent =   2.45734463, win =   2.57111604, lose =   0.00110718, back =   0.00321222, profit =   0.11698363 ( 0.422% to lose all)
win on turn 43 : bet =   0.36965169, spent =   2.82699632, win =   2.95685845, lose =   0.00134825, back =   0.00431940, profit =   0.13418153 ( 0.370% to lose all)
win on turn 44 : bet =   0.42509945, spent =   3.25209577, win =   3.40046222, lose =   0.00162549, back =   0.00566765, profit =   0.15403410 ( 0.325% to lose all)
win on turn 45 : bet =   0.48886437, spent =   3.74096013, win =   3.91060655, lose =   0.00194432, back =   0.00729314, profit =   0.17693956 ( 0.286% to lose all)
win on turn 46 : bet =   0.56219402, spent =   4.30315415, win =   4.49727253, lose =   0.00231097, back =   0.00923746, profit =   0.20335584 ( 0.251% to lose all)
win on turn 47 : bet =   0.64652312, spent =   4.94967727, win =   5.17193841, lose =   0.00273261, back =   0.01154843, profit =   0.23380957 ( 0.220% to lose all)
win on turn 48 : bet =   0.74350159, spent =   5.69317887, win =   5.94780418, lose =   0.00321750, back =   0.01428104, profit =   0.26890635 ( 0.193% to lose all)
win on turn 49 : bet =   0.85502683, spent =   6.54820570, win =   6.84004980, lose =   0.00377513, back =   0.01749854, profit =   0.30934264 ( 0.170% to lose all)
win on turn 50 : bet =   0.98328085, spent =   7.53148655, win =   7.86613228, lose =   0.00441640, back =   0.02127367, profit =   0.35591940 ( 0.149% to lose all)
win on turn 51 : bet =   1.13077298, spent =   8.66225953, win =   9.04612712, lose =   0.00515386, back =   0.02569007, profit =   0.40955766 ( 0.131% to lose all)
win on turn 52 : bet =   1.30038893, spent =   9.96264846, win =  10.40312119, lose =   0.00600194, back =   0.03084393, profit =   0.47131666 ( 0.115% to lose all)
win on turn 53 : bet =   1.49544727, spent =  11.45809573, win =  11.96366437, lose =   0.00697723, back =   0.03684587, profit =   0.54241451 ( 0.101% to lose all)
win on turn 54 : bet =   1.71976436, spent =  13.17786009, win =  13.75828902, lose =   0.00809882, back =   0.04382310, profit =   0.62425203 ( 0.088% to lose all)
win on turn 55 : bet =   1.97772901, spent =  15.15558911, win =  15.82210737, lose =   0.00938864, back =   0.05192192, profit =   0.71844018 ( 0.078% to lose all)
win on turn 56 : bet =   2.27438837, spent =  17.42997747, win =  18.19549848, lose =   0.01087194, back =   0.06131056, profit =   0.82683157 ( 0.068% to lose all)
win on turn 57 : bet =   2.61554662, spent =  20.04552409, win =  20.92489825, lose =   0.01257773, back =   0.07218250, profit =   0.95155666 ( 0.060% to lose all)
win on turn 58 : bet =   3.00787861, spent =  23.05340271, win =  24.06370799, lose =   0.01453939, back =   0.08476023, profit =   1.09506551 ( 0.053% to lose all)
win on turn 59 : bet =   3.45906041, spent =  26.51246311, win =  27.67333919, lose =   0.01679530, back =   0.09929962, profit =   1.26017570 ( 0.046% to lose all)
win on turn 60 : bet =   3.97791947, spent =  30.49038258, win =  31.82441507, lose =   0.01938959, back =   0.11609492, profit =   1.45012741 ( 0.041% to lose all)
win on turn 61 : bet =   4.57460739, spent =  35.06498997, win =  36.59815234, lose =   0.02237303, back =   0.13548451, profit =   1.66864688 ( 0.036% to lose all)
win on turn 62 : bet =   5.26079849, spent =  40.32578846, win =  42.08795019, lose =   0.02580399, back =   0.15785754, profit =   1.92001927 ( 0.031% to lose all)
win on turn 63 : bet =   6.04991827, spent =  46.37570673, win =  48.40121772, lose =   0.02974959, back =   0.18366153, profit =   2.20917252 ( 0.027% to lose all)
win on turn 64 : bet =   6.95740601, spent =  53.33311274, win =  55.66147537, lose =   0.03428703, back =   0.21341112, profit =   2.54177375 ( 0.024% to lose all)
win on turn 65 : bet =   8.00101691, spent =  61.33412965, win =  64.01077168, lose =   0.03950508, back =   0.24769815, profit =   2.92434018 ( 0.021% to lose all)
win on turn 66 : bet =   9.20116945, spent =  70.53529910, win =  73.61246243, lose =   0.04550584, back =   0.28720323, profit =   3.36436656 ( 0.019% to lose all)
win on turn 67 : bet =  10.58134486, spent =  81.11664396, win =  84.65440680, lose =   0.05240672, back =   0.33270907, profit =   3.87047191 ( 0.016% to lose all)
win on turn 68 : bet =  12.16854659, spent =  93.28519056, win =  97.35264282, lose =   0.06034273, back =   0.38511579, profit =   4.45256805 ( 0.014% to lose all)
win on turn 69 : bet =  13.99382858, spent = 107.27901914, win = 111.95561424, lose =   0.06946914, back =   0.44545852, profit =   5.12205362 ( 0.013% to lose all)
win on turn 70 : bet =  16.09290287, spent = 123.37192201, win = 128.74903138, lose =   0.07996451, back =   0.51492766, profit =   5.89203703 ( 0.011% to lose all)
win on turn 71 : bet =  18.50683830, spent = 141.87876031, win = 148.06146109, lose =   0.09203419, back =   0.59489217, profit =   6.77759295 ( 0.010% to lose all)
win on turn 72 : bet =  21.28286405, spent = 163.16162436, win = 170.27075525, lose =   0.10591432, back =   0.68692636, profit =   7.79605725 ( 0.008% to lose all)
win on turn 73 : bet =  24.47529365, spent = 187.63691801, win = 195.81144354, lose =   0.12187646, back =   0.79284068, profit =   8.96736621 ( 0.007% to lose all)
win on turn 74 : bet =  28.14658770, spent = 215.78350571, win = 225.18323507, lose =   0.14023293, back =   0.91471714, profit =  10.31444650 ( 0.007% to lose all)
win on turn 75 : bet =  32.36857586, spent = 248.15208157, win = 258.96079533, lose =   0.16134287, back =   1.05495007, profit =  11.86366383 ( 0.006% to lose all)
win on turn 76 : bet =  37.22386224, spent = 285.37594380, win = 297.80498963, lose =   0.18561931, back =   1.21629294, profit =  13.64533877 ( 0.005% to lose all)
win on turn 77 : bet =  42.80744157, spent = 328.18338538, win = 342.47581308, lose =   0.21353720, back =   1.40191225, profit =  15.69433995 ( 0.004% to lose all)
win on turn 78 : bet =  49.22855781, spent = 377.41194318, win = 393.84726004, lose =   0.24564278, back =   1.61544945, profit =  18.05076631 ( 0.004% to lose all)
win on turn 79 : bet =  56.61284148, spent = 434.02478466, win = 452.92442405, lose =   0.28256420, back =   1.86109223, profit =  20.76073162 ( 0.003% to lose all)
win on turn 80 : bet =  65.10476770, spent = 499.12955236, win = 520.86316265, lose =   0.32502383, back =   2.14365643, profit =  23.87726672 ( 0.003% to lose all)
win on turn 81 : bet =  74.87048285, spent = 574.00003521, win = 598.99271205, lose =   0.37385241, back =   2.46868026, profit =  27.46135710 ( 0.003% to lose all)
win on turn 82 : bet =  86.10105528, spent = 660.10109049, win = 688.84169386, lose =   0.43000527, back =   2.84253267, profit =  31.58313604 ( 0.002% to lose all)
win on turn 83 : bet =  99.01621357, spent = 759.11730407, win = 792.16802294, lose =   0.49458106, back =   3.27253794, profit =  36.32325681 ( 0.002% to lose all)
win on turn 84 : bet = 113.86864561, spent = 872.98594968, win = 910.99330138, lose =   0.56884322, back =   3.76711900, profit =  41.77447070 ( 0.002% to lose all)

Here's the output for the game I was playing.  I won on turn 10, so my profit should have been 42.28775196.  But I paid 5 transaction fees of 0.0005 each, so it was a little less, at 42.28525196.

Code:
win on turn  1 : bet =   0.12200000, spent =   0.12200000, win =   0.32525594, lose =   0.00011000, back =   0.00000000, profit =   0.20325594 (63.379% to lose all)
win on turn  2 : bet =   0.24400000, spent =   0.36600000, win =   0.65101188, lose =   0.00072000, back =   0.00011000, profit =   0.28512188 (40.169% to lose all)
win on turn  3 : bet =   0.48800000, spent =   0.85400000, win =   1.30252376, lose =   0.00194000, back =   0.00083000, profit =   0.44935376 (25.459% to lose all)
win on turn  4 : bet =   0.97600000, spent =   1.83000000, win =   2.60554753, lose =   0.00438000, back =   0.00277000, profit =   0.77831753 (16.135% to lose all)
win on turn  5 : bet =   1.95200000, spent =   3.78200000, win =   5.21159506, lose =   0.00926000, back =   0.00715000, profit =   1.43674506 (10.226% to lose all)
win on turn  6 : bet =   3.90400000, spent =   7.68600000, win =  10.42369012, lose =   0.01902000, back =   0.01641000, profit =   2.75410012 ( 6.481% to lose all)
win on turn  7 : bet =   7.80800000, spent =  15.49400000, win =  20.84788024, lose =   0.03854000, back =   0.03543000, profit =   5.38931024 ( 4.108% to lose all)
win on turn  8 : bet =  15.61600000, spent =  31.11000000, win =  41.69626049, lose =   0.07758000, back =   0.07397000, profit =  10.66023049 ( 2.604% to lose all)
win on turn  9 : bet =  31.23200000, spent =  62.34200000, win =  83.39302098, lose =   0.15566000, back =   0.15155000, profit =  21.20257098 ( 1.650% to lose all)
win on turn 10 : bet =  62.46400000, spent = 124.80600000, win = 166.78654196, lose =   0.31182000, back =   0.30721000, profit =  42.28775196 ( 1.046% to lose all)
win on turn 11 : bet = 124.92800000, spent = 249.73400000, win = 333.57358392, lose =   0.62414000, back =   0.61903000, profit =  84.45861392 ( 0.663% to lose all)
win on turn 12 : bet = 249.85600000, spent = 499.59000000, win = 667.14766785, lose =   1.24878000, back =   1.24317000, profit = 168.80083785 ( 0.420% to lose all)
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 19, 2012, 01:21:25 PM
#294
Quote from: BlueCombWindow on September 19, 2012, 01:56:02 AM
I notice that the less than 3000 is a consistent loser for Satoshidice. I wonder why that is? Perhaps someone has found a very good strategy that works with a 21x multiplier. If you notice, the max bet for less than 3000 is actually smaller than the max bet for less than 2000. In all other cases the max bet goes up (or stays at max 250) as the multiplier decreases.

That is indeed strange.  The max bet is too low for "lessthan 3000".  I wonder if it's an attempt to limit their losses on such an "unlucky" number.  I hope it's just a simple mistake rather than dumb superstition.  I've PM'ed Erik several times telling him where he's going wrong with his max bet limits, but I don't get much of a response.

I expect the 3000 game is a loser just due to bad luck.  The multiplier is high, so the variance is high too.  It only takes a couple of big wins to put a substantial dent in the profits.  (Hmmm - but looking at the "biggest wins" section of SD.com shows no "lessthan 3000" bets in the list).
Bugpowder
sr. member
Activity: 394
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 19, 2012, 08:45:05 AM
#293
Quote from: BlueCombWindow on September 19, 2012, 01:56:02 AM
I notice that the less than 3000 is a consistent loser for Satoshidice. I wonder why that is? Perhaps someone has found a very good strategy that works with a 21x multiplier. If you notice, the max bet for less than 3000 is actually smaller than the max bet for less than 2000. In all other cases the max bet goes up (or stays at max 250) as the multiplier decreases.

LOL better strategy.

Best strat is don't play. Second best is max bet one time.

Given the number of bet odds subsets, and the total number of
Bets, odds are at least one of the subsets is a loser for s.dice, for now.  This is why you can only use pre declared subgroups in your analysis of treatment efficacy durin clinical trials. This is a great case study in how Post-hoc analysis can mislead.

But by all means, please bet a lot on less than 3000
zvs
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1000
https://web.archive.org/web/*/nogleg.com
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
September 19, 2012, 06:52:39 AM
#292
Quote from: dooglus on September 18, 2012, 03:55:14 PM
I've often posted logs of silly martingale sequences in the past, marvelling at how anyone could be so foolish as to keep doubling their bet over and over.  I never before experienced it first hand - until now.

I was physically shaking as I entered the last couple of bets.  I've never before bet over $600 on the roll of a dice.  I got lucky, and really think I ought to retire from this game now.  It's quite a buzz, but too dangerous for my liking:



hmm, you were betting 'under 24000' though, so each time you doubled up, your profit also increased.  You'd only need to increase your bet about 35% each time...   So you made about 40 bitcoins profit?   martingale as it's defined would have resulted in a gain of just 0.122... and a bet of ~0.165 on your 2nd round..

ed:  well, wait, I'm wrong, since your initial bet was 0.122, you were trying to win 0.326, so the 0.326 + bets already lost is what you would bet for on each subsequent round

my favorite is the 8000, with initial bet of 0.001 and increasing by 20% after the first lost, and 15% each time thereafter.  the first pays for the tx fees, the other times, well, it sucks to bet 10 and only win a little over a bitpenny
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