Quote
If I may, I would like to add some of my own analysis.
And thank you!
Topic: SlipperySlope's Bubble Collapse Journal - page 5. (Read 24795 times)
And thank you!
Yup totally different time scales. Gold went into a 20 year consolidation after it peaked.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
Great post Frozenlock! 
When will you dump part of your coins?
Why not now?
When will you dump part of your coins?
Why not now?
If I may, I would like to add some of my own analysis.
Many "bears" here believe the support line will break under the resistance line, pointing to the 2011
bubble and the long and excruciating crash that followed. (Both lines should collide in the next 2 days, at around $115.)
They might be right. Both charts kinda look similar.
Let's look again:
Here we see the peak, with the inevitable collapse, the rebound, the second crash... and so on.
I think we all know this chart by heart now.
Oh wait...
Wrong chart.
This is our chart:
What the hell did I just show then?
The gold "bubble" chart.
Here is how it deflated:
Now, obviously the timescales are different. But take a closer look.
Observe how the "popping" is similar. And by similar I mean frikking identical.
Everything is in log scale, so what we see really are relative changes.
Contrary to gold however, our support is ascending.
Notice how both support points occurred at almost the same places.
The full gold chart:
Disclaimer: contrary to 2011, I'm ready to drop a good chunk of my coins at a moment's notice.
I will not simply hold all of them and miss a golden opportunity like the one that arose when BTC reached $4.
Many "bears" here believe the support line will break under the resistance line, pointing to the 2011
bubble and the long and excruciating crash that followed. (Both lines should collide in the next 2 days, at around $115.)
They might be right. Both charts kinda look similar.
Let's look again:
Here we see the peak, with the inevitable collapse, the rebound, the second crash... and so on.
I think we all know this chart by heart now.
Oh wait...
Wrong chart.
This is our chart:
What the hell did I just show then?
The gold "bubble" chart.
Here is how it deflated:
Now, obviously the timescales are different. But take a closer look.
Observe how the "popping" is similar. And by similar I mean frikking identical.
Everything is in log scale, so what we see really are relative changes.
Contrary to gold however, our support is ascending.
Notice how both support points occurred at almost the same places.
The full gold chart:
Disclaimer: contrary to 2011, I'm ready to drop a good chunk of my coins at a moment's notice.
I will not simply hold all of them and miss a golden opportunity like the one that arose when BTC reached $4.
Quote
The 2011 bubble broke the long-term trend on the way down. I remember how S3052 was so sure that it would not - but it did and all hell broke lose.
Great point to remember. The April 2011 low was used to establish the support trendline before we reached the actual bottom - leading to great debate here at bitcointalk, but it turned out that April 2011 was part of that bubble.
...
...
...
The 2011 bubble broke the long-term trend on the way down. I remember how S3052 was so sure that it would not - but it did and all hell broke lose.
Thank you Mr. Smoothie.
Folks reading this should know that I index my part of the thread from the first page. Recently I added a properly scaled comparison between the 2011 bubble and this one.
Folks reading this should know that I index my part of the thread from the first page. Recently I added a properly scaled comparison between the 2011 bubble and this one.
28 days after the April 10 peak
A bubble collapse should be characterized by successfully lower peaks. This is a weaker bearish claim than the current bubble collapse trendline - that might still hold if the trendline is broken to the upside for a while.
Here are the current candidates of yet unsurpassed peaks ...
The longer time passes without these peaks being surpassed, I think, the more sentiment turns away from the notion that the bubble can indeed be reinflated.
A bubble collapse should be characterized by successfully lower peaks. This is a weaker bearish claim than the current bubble collapse trendline - that might still hold if the trendline is broken to the upside for a while.
Here are the current candidates of yet unsurpassed peaks ...
- April 9 - $266
- April 23 - $166
- April 28 - $149
- May 5 - $125
The longer time passes without these peaks being surpassed, I think, the more sentiment turns away from the notion that the bubble can indeed be reinflated.
Selling pressure still there - lots of coins on the order book. But buying pressure increasing, $18M bid sum ATM. Sort of tense equilibrium.
.. or red line is out of ammo.
Yeah, only 170 kBTC for sale on MtGox...
and of course at higher cost :-)
.. or red line is out of ammo.
Yeah, only 170 kBTC for sale on MtGox...
Does resistance trump support at $105?
Here is a larger look at the two colliding trends: red is the declining resistance trendline and green is the climbing support trendline. I believe that the resistance trend will dominate as the bubble collapses.
Here is a larger look at the two colliding trends: red is the declining resistance trendline and green is the climbing support trendline. I believe that the resistance trend will dominate as the bubble collapses.
I believe that the green climbing support line represents bargain-hunting buyers. When these two trendlines collide, perhaps that is the point at which bargain hunting buyers decide the bubble is real and that prices will go lower if they wait.
.. or red line is out of ammo.
But my fellow bargain hunting buyers are like me, they hold their BTC.
So they don't have any money left to buy.
Sell sell sell!
But my fellow bargain hunting buyers are like me, they hold their BTC. We have no fear of a drop to as low as $50 where we will buy more. We have a mid term target of selling around $140. We never panic sell. Anyone who's been trading since say March won't get jumpy unless we go under around $45.
Does resistance trump support at $105?
Here is a larger look at the two colliding trends: red is the declining resistance trendline and green is the climbing support trendline. I believe that the resistance trend will dominate as the bubble collapses.
Here is a larger look at the two colliding trends: red is the declining resistance trendline and green is the climbing support trendline. I believe that the resistance trend will dominate as the bubble collapses.
I believe that the green climbing support line represents bargain-hunting buyers. When these two trendlines collide, perhaps that is the point at which bargain hunting buyers decide the bubble is real and that prices will go lower if they wait.
I don't think the bubble is ready to collapse just yet. There's too much buzz around bitcoin going on, so many who believe in it or are curious about it. My guess is that $50 support is going to hold, $90 will be tested this week and next month we will be consolidating around 110-130. Really good news could be the spark for a new ATH, and bad news might send us towards $50, or even lower. Just my opinion, anything can happen.
If it doesn't, it's gonna explode! Kaboooom!
Does resistance trump support at $105?
Here is a larger look at the two colliding trends: red is the declining resistance trendline and green is the climbing support trendline. I believe that the resistance trend will dominate as the bubble collapses.
Here is a larger look at the two colliding trends: red is the declining resistance trendline and green is the climbing support trendline. I believe that the resistance trend will dominate as the bubble collapses.
Hey, SlipperySlope, you'll let me know if my contrarian posts get on your nerves. It's your thread after all.
Okay, so I don't find the support line (hypothesis or not) particularly convincing. Doesn't fit the rising lows. How about those two converging trends instead? (I tend to use typical price, but it also works when I graph candles instead).
Not *much* evidence, I admit, 2 points of contact only. Then again, the down trend you draw looks like it has 2 solid points as well, and a third one if I squint a bit :P Anyway, I'm not the first one to point out that it could be the case that there are two trends running towards each other.
But they're getting close, so we'll see soon: anything above 120 in the next days puts your prediction into question, anything below 90 mine. Interesting times.
EDIT: Prefer a log chart, actually. After all, both the upwards trend and the correction are most likely exponential. Doesn't change much, number wise: below 90 is a problem for me, above 120 for you.
Okay, so I don't find the support line (hypothesis or not) particularly convincing. Doesn't fit the rising lows. How about those two converging trends instead? (I tend to use typical price, but it also works when I graph candles instead).
Not *much* evidence, I admit, 2 points of contact only. Then again, the down trend you draw looks like it has 2 solid points as well, and a third one if I squint a bit :P Anyway, I'm not the first one to point out that it could be the case that there are two trends running towards each other.
But they're getting close, so we'll see soon: anything above 120 in the next days puts your prediction into question, anything below 90 mine. Interesting times.
EDIT: Prefer a log chart, actually. After all, both the upwards trend and the correction are most likely exponential. Doesn't change much, number wise: below 90 is a problem for me, above 120 for you.
Jump to: