Something, something, something, technical analysis

wasserman99

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Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on July 28, 2014, 12:34:12 AM

Quote from: oda.krell on July 28, 2014, 12:30:56 AM

we're still on course for leaving the 2013/14 bear market behind.

I hope so, too, although last developments are not for those faint of heart Wink

.

Strangely, according to their webpage, Bitfinex longs are still almost unchanged at 30M. Would be nice to get it over with with a flash crash or at least consistent decline over couple weeks.

This is likely what will happen. A massive decline in the bitcoin price will not permanently damage the bitcoin network, the bitcoin economy, nor bitcoin itself. Booms and busts are natural to happen in any economy or industry or sector and is appears that we may be going through at least a mini bust.

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: Ovum on August 18, 2014, 03:38:10 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 15, 2014, 06:49:22 AM

The idea is that after a period of decreasing volatility (that "triangle" on BBW) the market tends to "remember" the volatility of the prior breakout and tries to relive it. The real target is where BBW slows down and forms a top, the price target is more of a guess of how that might happen.

So, what is (was) in this case the previous breakout. For what you said it seemed the price would break up, but from the graphic, there's the sign down that was accurately correct. So why you say that failed epically?

To be fair we had a little support at the predicted target as the fall halted for about half a day, what I didn't expect was that it didn't bounce at all. Too fiddly for me, but if you think I'm on to something feel free to use it.

Ovum

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 15, 2014, 06:49:22 AM

The idea is that after a period of decreasing volatility (that "triangle" on BBW) the market tends to "remember" the volatility of the prior breakout and tries to relive it. The real target is where BBW slows down and forms a top, the price target is more of a guess of how that might happen.

So, what is (was) in this case the previous breakout. For what you said it seemed the price would break up, but from the graphic, there's the sign down that was accurately correct. So why you say that failed epically?

ElectricMucus

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Oh wow that failed epically. Punched right through.

ElectricMucus

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The idea is that after a period of decreasing volatility (that "triangle" on BBW) the market tends to "remember" the volatility of the prior breakout and tries to relive it. The real target is where BBW slows down and forms a top, the price target is more of a guess of how that might happen.

oda.krell

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I figured that BBW graph wasn't supposed to be a (broken) triangle, but care to explain what you did do there? I'll freely admit, I have no idea what indicator/technique you're using there, and I'm on TV myself.

ElectricMucus

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That's not how Bollinger Band Width works. It's a measure of volatility.

Wilhelm

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 13, 2014, 02:53:27 PM

Is it me or did the triangle break upwards with some volume... meaning your analysis could be faulty. Huh

ElectricMucus

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oda.krell

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Quote from: Tzupy on August 13, 2014, 07:44:23 AM

oda.krell, you missed the chance to post the bearish scenario I was asking for. :D
Now the bullish scenario has been invalidated and the bearish one (capitulation) is going strong.

IIRC you advised someone to buy a couple of months ago because it looked 'safe' (bear market seemed over).
If so, then IMO you should advise them to sell now or on the rebound that will follow, they can buy back below 300$.

Different time scales, and different trading goals. My posts from May talking about buying support in the mid 400s, leading to the relatively unconditional (compared to my usual statements at least :D) buying recommendation at $459, were on a different, larger trading time scale compared to what you have in mind, I believe.

Also, I don't see evidence that this level (the 400s) won't be supported by buying now, if we should even go there. Not saying it's impossible that we break through into the 300s, but I'm not expecting it.

That said, lots of trading opportunity in between then and now. But for a lack of time to write long essays, but also because of the above mentioned different goals I have in mind for this thread, I'd rather leave the shorter term trades out of my analysis.

Tzupy

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oda.krell, you missed the chance to post the bearish scenario I was asking for. Cheesy

Now the bullish scenario has been invalidated and the bearish one (capitulation) is going strong.

IIRC you advised someone to buy a couple of months ago because it looked 'safe' (bear market seemed over).
If so, then IMO you should advise them to sell now or on the rebound that will follow, they can buy back below 300$.

Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay

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Quote from: oda.krell on July 28, 2014, 12:30:56 AM

we're still on course for leaving the 2013/14 bear market behind.

I hope so, too, although last developments are not for those faint of heart Wink

.

Strangely, according to their webpage, Bitfinex longs are still almost unchanged at 30M. Would be nice to get it over with with a flash crash or at least consistent decline over couple weeks.

oda.krell

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Interesting observation, MAbtc. Thanks.

To answer an earlier question: myself, I'm on vacation currently, and, yes, I personally do notice a bit of "analysis fatigue".

That said, I am watching, peripherally, if selling pressure is substantially increasing to the point where the current price level 500s to 600s breaks down , but I don't see that happening so far. In absence of that, I am watching the development through the fibonnacci lense I posted about a few pages ago. From that perspective, we're still on course for leaving the 2013/14 bear market behind.

Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay

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I agree that it started to look better last couple of hours, although feels like this stalemate can last for weeks if not months. Is it true that the # of btc transactions if falling?

Btw, I am not shorting, I am buying at the dips, believing that we are going up *sometime*, although would not be surprised if it would take months. On the other hand, I do not think we can go down much lower, $450 would be absolute bottom, but I do not think it happen, bottom somewhere in $5xxs much more likely. The bigger problem seems to be lack of enthusiasms and buyers for new rally. Let's hope ETF etc will take care of it.

Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay

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Everybody on vacation or not interested in TA anymore?

I think we haven't bottomed up yet in $590s, so far we are more like going down, step by step.

Where do you think it will end? I hope somewhere above $550, although it looks like we are in a short-term bearish phase and even 3d MACD are consistently red across exchanges.

oda.krell

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Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on July 07, 2014, 01:58:05 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on July 02, 2014, 09:57:11 AM

6h, 12h, 1d, 3d and 1w MACD, all positive as of now. The 3d is declining and somewhat close to zero perhaps, and technically there's no closed green 1w candle yet, but you get the idea: confluence of momentum across all relevant time scales is overwhelmingly pointing towards another decisive move up.

All MACDs between 1h and 12h became red now.

Yes. One of the weakest, and admittedly, most thoughtless predictions I made in there, in my opinion.

I suppose the confluence of upwards momentum has prevented us from a sharper drop so far, but nonetheless: at the time of posting, price was at ~$650, and it went down as much as $40 in between. Not enough for me personally to be tempted to trade the swing, but definitely not what I thought was going to happen when I posted the above.

I'm planning to run a test on a a MACD combination strategy, to see if the intuition that I (and many others, as far as I know) have about matching momentum across several time scales is actually correct and profitable.

inca

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Quote from: Tzupy on July 07, 2014, 02:50:50 PM

I wonder if oda.krell will post a bearish scenario. So far he was called a 'short-sighted perma-bear' for being rationally bullish.
If he posts a bearish analysis he may be called a 'bear troll'! Cheesy

Seriously, there are reasons to look at the bearish scenario:
- the uptrend above 600$ (since 26th May) was pumped with $ swaps on BFX and the loans have since ballooned to almost 30M$.
- the uptrend was helped by a (temporary?) removal of BTC from the market, possibly used to pump certain altcoins.
- the Chinese bagholders are getting impatient, and just the lack of new FUD prevents some serious dumping.

Tzupy = perma bear

Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay

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Quote from: Tzupy on July 07, 2014, 02:50:50 PM

I wonder if oda.krell will post a bearish scenario. So far he was called a 'short-sighted perma-bear' for being rationally bullish.
If he posts a bearish analysis he may be called a 'bear troll'! Cheesy

Seriously, there are reasons to look at the bearish scenario:
- the uptrend above 600$ (since 26th May) was pumped with $ swaps on BFX and the loans have since ballooned to almost 30M$.
- the uptrend was helped by a (temporary?) removal of BTC from the market, possibly used to pump certain altcoins.
- the Chinese bagholders are getting impatient, and just the lack of new FUD prevents some serious dumping.

I agree. I am most worried about almost everybody (reasonable) being convinced we are going up and too many leveraged longs on 'Finex (in proportion to actual bids). Will see.

Tzupy

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Activity: 2170

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I wonder if oda.krell will post a bearish scenario. So far he was called a 'short-sighted perma-bear' for being rationally bullish.
If he posts a bearish analysis he may be called a 'bear troll'! Cheesy

Seriously, there are reasons to look at the bearish scenario:
- the uptrend above 600$ (since 26th May) was pumped with $ swaps on BFX and the loans have since ballooned to almost 30M$.
- the uptrend was helped by a (temporary?) removal of BTC from the market, possibly used to pump certain altcoins.
- the Chinese bagholders are getting impatient, and just the lack of new FUD prevents some serious dumping.

Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay

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Quote from: oda.krell on July 02, 2014, 09:57:11 AM

6h, 12h, 1d, 3d and 1w MACD, all positive as of now. The 3d is declining and somewhat close to zero perhaps, and technically there's no closed green 1w candle yet, but you get the idea: confluence of momentum across all relevant time scales is overwhelmingly pointing towards another decisive move up.

All MACDs between 1h and 12h became red now.

Topic: Something, something, something, technical analysis (Read 31170 times)