So who is going to buy btc on the way up when everybody seem long already
If the auction bidders, after losing the auction, will stick to their decision to buy BTC... Super-optimistic scenario: If competition at the auction is 10:1, it would mean 180M$ of fresh money. If almost nobody sells after the auction, like in rally stage, 1$ of fresh money pushes BTC capitalisation to 20$. Which increases the price on 180M$*20*(600/13000000000)=$166, i.e. to $770. Then media attention, hype, ATH, 5K$.
(unless market suddenly crashes after the bids were made). I also think many /most of the bidders will be opportunistic buyers: for likes of SecondMarket, Bitpay or Coinbase, it always makes sense to buy btc at considerable discount.
I do not understand why many people think that buying these btc from US government should be such "once in a lifetime" opportunity for institutional investors
. There are many other options for them to buy substantial amounts of btc perfectly legally and safely. The second condition likely excludes exchanges
, but they can still buy from big miners, SecondMarket, early adopters, btc processors (e.g. Bitpay) etc
Me neither. Or at least not significantly above. But neither will they be sold significantly below in all likelihood.
I'm afraid that whole thing will fizzle out without much effect. We probably won't get to know the price per lot immediately anyway (if ever), and will continue to drag on, eventually forgetting about the whole thing.
@wary: Nevermind the hijack
But I'm afraid a discussion with cbeast about the validity of TA is pointless. I threw out a few links (on the previous page) to academic studies about TA, all three of them peer reviewed (as far as I can tell, it's not my own field, so I don't know the journals well enough), but he seems rather biased, ignoring evidence to the contrary and instead harps on about tangential points.
In any case, there's no point arguing with someone who _opens_ the discussion with "hur dur it's basically astrology"... imagine someone comes into this forum stating "Bitcoin's a ponzie!". (well, happens often enough). The assumption is, predictably, that he's trolling, and not seriously interested in engaging in a discussion.
Same thing here: the validity of TA is up for debate. But the starting positions need to be at least compatible enough to _have_ a discussion, and not just a troll fest.
This idea that these bitcoins are going to go for a discount is ludicrious, imo. This is a blind auction, meaning if ONE, just one, entity bids over the market rate they are going over market rate.
Now all the bidders know most of their competition, its going to make the bid prices go up.
Noone is dumping on exchanges. In fact, its hard for me to comprehend the ignorance/stupidity of anyone who thinks someone is going to buy cheap from the government, transfer that money to an exchange and then try to sell for a profit. That's beyond imagination. These are serious buyers and players, not people/groups looking to go through the hassle to make maybe $5 a bitcoin profit on an illiquid exchange, where they couldn't sell that many coins anyway. Im getting stupidier just writing about this nonsense.
The coins may not go for a big premium, but I wouldn't be surprised at 5%+ over exchange rate.
These players was transparency. They want to legitimize their purchase by buying from the government. Most large investors want SAFETY first.
And there will be competition.
And the market will probably go up, simply because of a release of tension as to the outcome. Probably wont be sustained.
Although, I wouldn't be surprised if the markets has a semi-crash first.
