This is starting to look a lot like the SMA200 re-test I've been arguing for in RyNin's thread. Staying above, or at least closing above $611, would mean support from SMA200. Not sure if that'll happen though, panic seems to be kicking in. Daily close above would be a pretty bullish sign on the other hand.
Next step in case it breaks: I'd much prefer if $600 holds, for the obvious psychological reasons, but even until $580 to $590 (SMA50) we're safe in my opinion, but that's about as low as I currently expect it to go, if at all.
It becomes problematic from $550 to $560, I think. Not finding support there will put a damper on the entire upwards trend we've been starting to trust since the April 11 bottom. If it would come to that, which I don't really believe to be that likely, we're probably going back to fight for the $470 to $510 region again.
Next step in case it breaks: I'd much prefer if $600 holds, for the obvious psychological reasons, but even until $580 to $590 (SMA50) we're safe in my opinion, but that's about as low as I currently expect it to go, if at all.
It becomes problematic from $550 to $560, I think. Not finding support there will put a damper on the entire upwards trend we've been starting to trust since the April 11 bottom. If it would come to that, which I don't really believe to be that likely, we're probably going back to fight for the $470 to $510 region again.
A balanced view.
But with a bit of luck we may not panic quite so much. I mean, there is absolutely no substantial meaning behind the latest news flash at all. It's a continuation of the current European attitude, nothing more, nothing less.
Oh, I agree. It's more or less "no news" news: Banks are still allowed to take customers that work in the Bitcoin field, but are not supposed to dabble in it themselves until: regulation regulation regulation (let's see what that'll look like).
But as always, technicals and fundamentals work in tandem. And this news item came a time where the market is, once again, in doubt about where to go. Small scale volume is surprisingly supportive of the ~$600 level, but larger volume orders are, by and large, of the selling variety, for whatever reason (impatience, risk control, "directing" the market -- doesn't really matter). So even "no news" news can be enough to trigger a brief burst of panic.
