Topic: Something, something, something, technical analysis - page 18. (Read 31170 times)

Ichimoku sounds like some pagan god. Can't believe that's an actual trader term.

That's the ichimoku cloud on the 1 day timeframe. However, it's just a passing thought and I'm not sure if it's actually significant. The indicator I'm actually using before I increase to max position is the 3 day MACD.

What are these line? I am interested in the red line  
So the down trend was over in August?

I want to learn TA, ok. But which period time do I use? Take the weekly chart on bitcoinwisdom, and you will see, we are in an up trend since Jan13. Take the 12h period and we are already in an up trend since a few days.
This seems to be just a matter, what period interval I take...

Here's another way to analyze the resistance we need to break before the bear market is officially over - this purple shit.

I feel like the BTC Market has to be a little different than standard graph reading.  When you take into account trading hours are 24/7, what about a general aggregate timeframe when whales are awake?  What about a savvy investor just waiting to pounce?  The return to 550 after a 400 tap didn't surprise me at all.  There have always been huge 30% rebounds after testing the bottom in these flash crashes.  Most everyone is willing to buy a bitcoin at 4xx, but at lot of us were trying to catch the bottom of the trampoline, as shown with previous flash crashes, they are followed by a rebound with the same velocity.  See Dec. 17 Crash for example.

I also can't see anything happening too fast from this point. But I don't think the quick rise was due to the quick fall at all. The quick fall to 400 was succeeded by a quick rise to 550s; the unusual $100+ increase in a few hours on 3/3 was not symmetric to anything and was pretty unusual.

The quick rise is due to the quick fall. I didn't like it at first but now I realize it was legit. Everything is symmetrical, and the rise out of the next downtrend should be symmetrical too. Since it was a longer fall, it will be a longer rise.

Remember that one big green bar that happened a couple of days ago? The one from below 600 to a high of over 700? We're going to need to retrace to the bottom of that (or at least the open) before we can break out. This process will probably take 1-2 weeks. Thats not to say we couldn't see $70X for a period of time, but it will be like all the other $70X booms thus far: Short lived. Until other's get to re-confirm that the whale that got us from sub $600 to $700 was correct, that is. After that correction, its to the moon.

It already does look really awkward with the rise on 3/3 initiated by the whale that wanted 5k btc.

To form a proper base for an upward breakout from the 3 month downtrend, it should do something like this, as it did last year.


(12 hour chart)

We're talking about THE breakout of the 2014 consolidation into the rally for the next bubble. This doesn't just happen off the cuff with a 3 day retracement after a 75% rise from the bottom which was a mere week ago.

Look at the one-day chart though... is that just going to make a hard turn the other direction? It looks like it is headed upward.

It's too early to go up though. It should take 2 weeks to break the 3 month downtrend. It would look REALLY akward on the chart if went up right now.

My take (I'm new, be kind)...

6 hour chart to put the February downtrend into perspective. Reverse head & shoulders and subsequent reversal as predicted by EMA cluster just below the neckline. The bullish breakout didn't bounce off the neckline as support, confirming its strength.

Now we approach the 120 day EMA, which we have been trading underneath since early February. This is the longest period of time that we've traded below it, no doubt due to the loss in confidence from Gox. We are at a critical point and just about to move above it.

My vote is for up.

During bull markets when longer technical indicators start to reverse, I switch my selling strategy. Instead of "selling for fiat" and holding fiat for a prolonged amount of time, I only do very quick "short trades" immediately after spikes when it is clearly overbought, or if some bad news comes out (like silk road) and it's clearly going to spike down. I get in and out in 5 minutes to an hour and don't leave the charts till I am back in. So for example during the spike the other day to $710, I quickly "shorted" (sold and rebought) ,my bitcoins from 710 to 670 and then again from 700 to 650, with about 5-15 minutes in each trade, increasing my coins by about 15%. Then once I'm back in, that's it, I don't sell again. I don't speculate that maybe it will also go from 650 to 610. Sure that might happen and I be "down" for a little while when it goes from 650 to 610 but that's simply too unpredictable, slow, and risky of a thing to speculate on, when I can do just fine by grabbing low hanging fruit instead.

You have a lot of people in this for the long haul, and a lot of people who look at "Bitcoin crashing" as a sale on bitcoin.  I for one put two huge buy orders in around the $430 mark and was sitting in front of my computer on the spike to 710.  Did I sell?  No, because I rather hold BTC than fiat, and hopefully more and more people will feel the same way. 

In order for a true trend reversal people have got to WANT bitcoin; want to spend it, want to hold it, want to use it, and not use it in order to score FIAT off of the trading system.  When I trade on exchanges, I trade to get BTC, I could care less about what my FIAT net worth is at the end of the day, although the current rate of adoption/demand seems to be barely keeping pace with the trickling supply that gets put into the system.  (most larger mining companies are only selling what they need to in order to survive)

LOL Bitfinex. Almost 14k to 705.

Just shorts trying to scare the market down and keep BFX from driving Stamp up. What I'd like to know is if the 700 walls are real on Stamp. Short 690-695 / Stop 703 looks pretty tasty right now. But it might just get yanked and lose me a quick $1k (+ slippage when all the BFX walls get yanked)...

Either way, starting to feel like we need to push up a bit before any break to the downside. No one selling into support at these levels. But on a failed retest to the upside? $13 million in BFX longs and all the bagholders from $700+ on the 3/3 spike may start feeling the squeeze then.

It's a roller coaster!

...and thus it probably wasn't.

I believe anyone can make a wall like that on BFX

I'm uneasy about those ask walls on BFX totaling like 10k+ btc from $693-705...

Hey,

I don't think this is a 'legitimate' uptrend.
I haven't been following the other exchanges closely except for BTC-e, but I have compared the buy and sell orders.
When LTC was rising, and even now, the buy orders didn't increase. They DECREASED. If we were in an uptrend, more people would have bought, but it seems people cancelled their buy orders to wait it out.

On the other hand, the sell orders DID increase. At the moment, sell orders for LTC are around 11-12 million, while the buy orders are around 5 million. People will sell faster than that they will buy.

The reason for the rise?

LTC: BTC China adding Litecoin. Why this caused a rise, I don't know. Everyone was shouting ''China doesn't matter anymore'' (after the ban). But it suddenly matters again when it is about ''positive crypto news'' ? The LTC market is heavily manipulated at the moment.

Bitcoin probably rose because of Blockchain's twitter message; ''huge news coming, exciting weekend.''

Turned out, the news wasn't that exciting at all.

I don't think we have reversed yet, and to be honest, it doesn't seem like we will REALLY reverse anytime soon.

But it is an unpredictable market, so I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Cryptotrading is, after all, influenced by a few whales. What we, as individual ''small'' traders do, doesn't really matter.