Topic: Something, something, something, technical analysis - page 17. (Read 31170 times)

Interesting, thanks.

Wish I had your optimism. I guess I can see some positive signs (other than that we're not trading near 500 again, of course), like a CMF recovery similar to the one in July 2013 (see chart 1), but on the other hand I really wish the 630-640 (24% retracement) area would start providing support finally (chart 2). So far, it seems that we touch back into and below it without much effort... and that's how the long slide down started from Jan 7 to 14 as well (same fibo level, not same price level of course).

I lost my appetite for trading a bit right now, so I'm sitting on my hands anyway, but in my view we have about one more week to decide whether we're staying above the next retracement level for good (i.e. we don't dip back below 630/640), and if and when that happens, I'm going to be a bit more optimistic.

We also have that looming December-to-now trendline (chart 3), and we'll have to figure out eventually if that one turns out to be still active... if the resistance at around 650 keeps throwing us back down, I might start betting on a continuation of the downtrend/consolidation after all.



(1)




(2)



(3)




EDIT: I guess there's another positive view on our current situation, if you look at the retracement steps from the January peak to the recent 400 bottom. The 24% level was taken back almost immediately, and the most recent jump to 700 solidly put us up one level higher (38%, above 627, where we stayed for most of the time since the jump up). The next level, 50%, at around 700, will have to fall eventually, and I have no way of telling if the upwards pressure is strong enough for that, but I'm just mentioning all of this because previously I only looked at the retracement levels of the latest uptrend, but never looked at it from the perspective of the 995 to 400 downtrend.

Thanks, very interesting info and informative thread

I like that chart a lot, because it looks like a graph of human psychology, and in bitcoin that's still really relevant (imho).

So I have nothing to add! Every day goes by it feels like this bottom was already in. I'm happy with the coins I bought in the 500s, and that is something I could never have imagined myself saying last year. In fact I recall specifically deciding against buying on the crash from $266 to under a hundred, because I just couldn't get my head around pay $90 for ONE bitcoin.

heh!

Sorry didn't see that. Thanks for the nice update on the figure!
 

Not sure if you're serious or poking fun at my (continuation of uptrend = bullish) pennant post some days ago, but in principle you could still argued for the pattern still being there:



But tbh, I don't see it as the most likely scenario either anymore.

Isn't there a bullish flag forming since March in the daily?

Just trying to throw 2 Finneys at this thread.

No idea if you meant my post in lucif's thread, probably not lol but anyway


Price did quickly pierce SMA200 with a bounce near floor, just as predicted and just as it happened in the April crash. Historic comparative analysis has served me extremely well in the past, so I wouldn't be surprised if it holds now too (meaning bear market should be over). However luc recently made a post pointing out a potential inverted cup n' handle pattern, so I'm not betting on any horses yet

Here's my take. We're gonna need a bigger track

I like bigger pictures. Easier to tell what I'm looking at.

Someone posted a chart a while back mirroring the last bubble with the one we are in now. Almost perfect mirror match, and if so the next rally should start in the middle of this month. Anyone know the one? Repost if so?

Alright, let's try something different. I'm going to zoom out a bit, because (I'm sure you will agree) it's pretty difficult to read the market right now.

(cue Mat "manipulative whale whores everywhere, cannot trust this price, ramble ramble".)

Note that I'm smoothing out the details in the following one. Median price instead of candles. 30 day EMA as the comparative baseline. I want to look at the bigger picture for a moment, okay?





Looking at it like that, it doesn't sound completely unreasonable to me to ask "are we playing out a similar post-bubble correction like in 2013, and are we at the end of it?".

The similarities: red circle is the "Oh fuck. The rally is really over, after all" phase. Suddenly there's almost no hope left (except for permabulls) that we're breaking through the top again. Predictably, then comes the flash crash.

Next, we go back above the 30d EMA. Sentiment: "Hey, maybe this time the recovery will be done much quicker! Look, we already found the bottom last week!". Nope. It's never over that quick. Orange circle follows.

Which is where we are now. Maybe. Let's say we are, for a second.

So what would we expect to see in that case? Looking back to July/August 2013, let's note first that there's plenty of room for indecision reflected in the price. We actually went below the 30d EMA for another week. But eventually, it'll have to stay above... no need for huge jumps at first, but we do need to stay above that baseline at some point, or it's going to look like the correction will drag on.

In analogy with 2013, I'd say (raw) price briefly dipping back to 600 is still okay, but if it's going back below 580 then it's probably a lost cause. Also, any of those visits below the EMA should be over in about a week, maybe two, otherwise the similarities to 2013 pretty much end there.
EDIT: Correction. Forgot about the dump on July 18 that took out 60% of the gains we made since the capitulation. Analogous would be staying above 520 now.

One thing: don't come in here shouting "what reversal, we're still firmly in a downtrend", please. Think of the above as a hypothetical question in if/then form: if we are indeed in a recovery situation similar to July 2013, what would we expect to see in the next week or two.

* tera enters trading god-mode. buys at $200 and sells at $2500 within one month *

But godmode trader said that we might break out above $760, in which case prices upwards of $1100 etc were possible.......but if we broke below $490, then we could go down as far as $200s.

This isn't god mode trading. This is drawing lines on a fucking graph and saying the points where major trendlines hit.


Cmon man. Did you see how it happened? We are talking some individual placing 3K strong buy-in tranches right at spot price on Stamp here, resulting in panic buy-ins jumping in front of him, resulting in him moving his bid up further, and so on. This was a massive panic buy-in from likely from one source, that triggered a market stampede.


I also think we will see lower lows than $400. Just not quite yet.

With all the negative publicity and the known stolen coin hoardes, saving for capital flight from an economic crisis, there will be a general lack of upward pressure in Bitcoin with every opportunity for massive dumps (stolen coins) to spring out of knowhere.

So Bitcoiners, keep your fingers crossed for war, economic meltdown (but only in silly little countries that don't matter otherwise our beloved ponzi scheme is toast), and human misery!

I have my doubts about february being "final capitulation", because it was short, was all panic and event/news driven, and ended with a flash and bang - a VERY sharp recovery. This was very much like a "second drop" or the drop to 78 in april. A final capitulation or "third drop", on the other hand, should be very slow, hopeless, not news-driven, and slowly scoop into and dig its way out of a support level with a very low RSI and several consecutive days of high volume.

Haha, I see what you're getting at with that chart now. Sorry, but when I first saw it I couldn't make any sense of it, bit too chaotic with the squiggles and stuff. Anyway, I'm not claiming the idea is mine, or even that new. For exampple, it's similar to what masterluc said pretty much immediately after the December double top. In his case, it was (to my knowledge) based on counts following EW theory, which I'm pretty skeptical about, but in either case, it looks like it's a thought a number of us have in their head. Not sure it'll play out like that though: for instance, Fibonacci levels paint a very different picture (we are now where we were at the peak of the last corrective wave in 2013). 

If you look at page 1 of this thread, then I have posted a chart about just this.

I'm not that sure about the bolded part. If your expectations about what a possible breakout would have to look like are based on the assumption that the breakout would be followed (more or less) by the next rally phase (EDIT: towards a new ATH) , I don't know if I see that assumption to be all that certain.

There continues to be a worrying picture in my head where we are now in the stage where we were in early May 2013: after the *first*, not the *last* post-ATH bearish/correctional curve. I'll see if I can whip up a picture of what I mean later today.

Anyway: if that's the case, and we're playing out the April 2013 correction, but slowed by a factor of ~2, then to me it'd make sense to "break out" now without a more solid base/retest of lower levels.

Because there's nothing he could say in English to convince me that we're just suddenly going to break out right now and have a single rally all the way to ATH and beyond in less than a month. "godmode trader" has spoken.

^ Why are you posting in German on an international forum?

http://www.godmode-trader.de/analyse/bitcoins-totgesagte-leben-laenger,3679751
In dieser charttechnischen Besprechung betrachten wir nun den Kurs der Bitcoins an der Börse Bitstamp. Dort konnte sich der Kurs im Februar oberhalb von 500 $ stabilisieren, ein Ausbruchsversuch nach unten hin wurde sofort wieder aufgefangen. In dieser Woche kommt Kaufdruck auf, die Preise werden bis an die primäre Abwärtstrendlinie seit November hinaufgezogen. Mit dem Februartief am Unterstützungsbereich bei 360 - 400 $ wurde das Dezembertief erfolgreich getestet, womit die komplette Seitwärtskorrektur seit November enden könnte. Für klare Signale fehlt aber noch ein letzter Impuls: Erst ein nachhaltiger Anstieg über 760 $ würde weiter steigende Kurse bis 1.150 - 1.200 und später ca. 2.200 $ zulassen.

Kippt die Stimmung wieder mit Kursen signifikant unterhalb von 490 $ per Tagesschluss, sollte ein weiterer Test des Unterstützungsbereichs bei 360 - 400 $ eingeplant werden. Unterhalb davon liegt bei 250 - 270 $ der nächste Auffangbereich für Kursrücksetzer.


http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:ichimoku_cloud