⚽ Sportsbet.io ⚽ Spanish La Liga ⚽ Football Pool Discussion Thread - page 56.

LTU_btc

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Sevilla showed signs of recovery last round, but today they lost to Girona and it doesn't even comes as surprise. Had BTTS on this game. Yesterday I managed to spend my free bet from yellow cap well - made bet on BTTS in Celta - Villarreal game @1.89.
Next we have Basque derby between Real Sociedad - Athletic. Looking at results of both teams and their defense, probably we can't expect many goals. So, I'm going with over 1.5 goals @1.55. Nothing special. In superbru my prediction is 1:1.
BTW, Saint-loup is running away. He already got 10 points from all 4 games played so far and now his lead is already 8.5 points

Quote from: KTChampions on January 13, 2023, 05:46:07 PM

Hm... Why?

Real Madrid have won 12 out of 16 games in La Liga and 4 out of 6 in the Champions League - in any case, it is beneficial to choose Real as the winner. If we are talking about betting on money, then of course, from time to time there are situations when it is more profitable to bet against Real Madrid, but in this format of the competition there are simply no options other than betting on Real Madrid.

And most of their games had odds like 1.10. So, to get significant profit you have to put big stakes. And every their loss will cost you big part of your bankroll. It's more painful to lose one big bet with 1.10 odds than few smaller ones with odds something like 1.60-1.70. But some people manage to make profits with such strategy.

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Quote from: slaman29 on January 13, 2023, 07:18:47 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on January 12, 2023, 03:36:04 PM

In games with outsiders, I think it's more profitable to always predict Barcelona to win - even if they reduce the percentage of points scored, in any case, the percentage of wins will be higher than the percentage of losses and draws. In the big games I will bet against Barcelona - according to the statistics this season they have 4 losses, 1 draw (with Inter which equaled in result to defeat) and one sluggish win against Atlético. It is obvious that in big games it is more profitable to predict the failure of Barcelona.

Agree here, and maybe the opposite with Real, bet against them in normal competition and on them in big games?

Hm... Why?

Real Madrid have won 12 out of 16 games in La Liga and 4 out of 6 in the Champions League - in any case, it is beneficial to choose Real as the winner. If we are talking about betting on money, then of course, from time to time there are situations when it is more profitable to bet against Real Madrid, but in this format of the competition there are simply no options other than betting on Real Madrid.

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Quote from: slaman29 on January 13, 2023, 07:18:47 AM

Damn Barca. Lost big money as qualification odds was less than 1.2x when I checked so I decided to go for regular ML. Lewandowski could have won it for me but urgh.

And worst, I put in x2 at HT which was almost 2x but I made it part of multibet which lost with guess who? Chelsea!!

Quote from: KTChampions on January 12, 2023, 03:36:04 PM

In games with outsiders, I think it's more profitable to always predict Barcelona to win - even if they reduce the percentage of points scored, in any case, the percentage of wins will be higher than the percentage of losses and draws. In the big games I will bet against Barcelona - according to the statistics this season they have 4 losses, 1 draw (with Inter which equaled in result to defeat) and one sluggish win against Atlético. It is obvious that in big games it is more profitable to predict the failure of Barcelona.

Agree here, and maybe the opposite with Real, bet against them in normal competition and on them in big games?

You can't finish in profit by betting on favorites, odds are just too low to make it worthwhile and every loss costs you so much. That is why I prefer both to score market in matches like this, good odds and passed quite often. Watched parts of the match yesterday and Betis was quite good, did not have any chance when it came to penalties though. Barca was much more composed and Ter Stegen looked close to save most of them.

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Damn Barca. Lost big money as qualification odds was less than 1.2x when I checked so I decided to go for regular ML. Lewandowski could have won it for me but urgh.

And worst, I put in x2 at HT which was almost 2x but I made it part of multibet which lost with guess who? Chelsea!!

Quote from: KTChampions on January 12, 2023, 03:36:04 PM

In games with outsiders, I think it's more profitable to always predict Barcelona to win - even if they reduce the percentage of points scored, in any case, the percentage of wins will be higher than the percentage of losses and draws. In the big games I will bet against Barcelona - according to the statistics this season they have 4 losses, 1 draw (with Inter which equaled in result to defeat) and one sluggish win against Atlético. It is obvious that in big games it is more profitable to predict the failure of Barcelona.

Agree here, and maybe the opposite with Real, bet against them in normal competition and on them in big games?

LTU_btc

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If yesterday I said that Real - Valencia was great game, I probably used wrong word. Because today's semifinal was great game, Real - Valencia was just good.
Both teams played high level football and even in last minutes and in extra time they didn't tried to save score and tried to win game without going to penalties. And in penalty shootout Ter Stegen was just great. Pedri goal was disallowed after minimal offside. Without VAR it would be impossible to notice it. Maybe sometimes such offsides looks ridiculous, but rules are rules.
So, we will have El Clasico in the final on Sunday.

Quote from: casperBGD on January 12, 2023, 03:19:08 PM

not a fan of Spanish teams playing abroad, but money is there to push it through, and there is nothing one can do about it

not sure if there is interest from other league to play their matches abroad, but La Liga teams are in financial meltdown, and they have to do anything to put their financials in better position, VCF as well, being down more than 400 million EUR atm

I'm not big fan too, but it's all about the money and probably it's difficult to deny such generous offers. IIRC, Italy and maybe France also played their Supercups abroad.
There was plans to play some La Liga games in USA, but after they got lot of hate from Spanish fans, they refused to do it.

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Quote from: slaman29 on January 12, 2023, 06:22:02 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on January 11, 2023, 09:50:42 AM

This is random. To evaluate the effectiveness of your efforts, you need to try different options over a long distance. For example, in this round, I predicted a draw (if I remember correctly) between Atlético and Barcelona, and it seems to me that Barcelona's victory can hardly be called natural. I also predicted draws in Serie A - between Spezia and Lecce and between Milan and Roma with the same score 1-1. As a result, the first pair played 0-0, and the second 2-2. On the one hand, I guessed right, on the other hand, luck was against me.

I feel like I did the same "strategy" last season and did slightly better, so that's the long term enough proof for me that consistency is better than just trying something different all the time. But let's see, maybe the recent results really are unnatural (Barca winning was truly a surprise).
~

In games with outsiders, I think it's more profitable to always predict Barcelona to win - even if they reduce the percentage of points scored, in any case, the percentage of wins will be higher than the percentage of losses and draws. In the big games I will bet against Barcelona - according to the statistics this season they have 4 losses, 1 draw (with Inter which equaled in result to defeat) and one sluggish win against Atlético. It is obvious that in big games it is more profitable to predict the failure of Barcelona.

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Quote from: LTU_btc on January 11, 2023, 06:19:20 PM

So, Valencia lost in semifinal to Real after penalties. It was great game and it's good that we got maximum from it. But when it comes to penalties, when you see players like Benzema, Modric or Kroos going to take it, it's so difficult to expect that they will miss, unless goalkeeper will do miracles. They have so much experience in such games that's just another day in office for them. While Valencia players didn't looked confident there. Sorry for a loss, casperBGD
2nd semifinal Barca - Betis tomorrow, it should be great game and similar scenario like today wouldn't be surprise. Though, I obviously would prefer Barca win in 90 minutes Cheesy

.

it is what it is, I was not able to watch the match, and VCF obviously played better than when I am watching, maybe it is a sign

not a fan of Spanish teams playing abroad, but money is there to push it through, and there is nothing one can do about it

not sure if there is interest from other league to play their matches abroad, but La Liga teams are in financial meltdown, and they have to do anything to put their financials in better position, VCF as well, being down more than 400 million EUR atm

slaman29

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Quote from: KTChampions on January 11, 2023, 09:50:42 AM

Quote from: slaman29 on January 11, 2023, 08:45:03 AM

And maybe I should pay less attention the league then in that case because I seem to be doing worse by trying to follow the news and how teams line up and expected odds etc it would seem that bookie odds on the day itself seems a more accurate way to adjust predictions. I am trying to be very consistent, not to predict too many upsets but it's not working anyway!

This is random. To evaluate the effectiveness of your efforts, you need to try different options over a long distance. For example, in this round, I predicted a draw (if I remember correctly) between Atlético and Barcelona, and it seems to me that Barcelona's victory can hardly be called natural. I also predicted draws in Serie A - between Spezia and Lecce and between Milan and Roma with the same score 1-1. As a result, the first pair played 0-0, and the second 2-2. On the one hand, I guessed right, on the other hand, luck was against me.

I feel like I did the same "strategy" last season and did slightly better, so that's the long term enough proof for me that consistency is better than just trying something different all the time. But let's see, maybe the recent results really are unnatural (Barca winning was truly a surprise).

Quote from: Trofo on January 12, 2023, 04:47:35 AM

Quote from: Harkorede on January 11, 2023, 09:12:30 PM

It was an intense game between Valencia and Real Madrid and hopefully we'll get an equally or even more interesting game between Barcelona and Betis, for what it's worth, I literally would have preferred Valencia going through because it would have meant a less tougher opponent should Barcelona win their tie as well. I really don't if Lewandowski's ban would be carried over to the super cup, but if that's the case it might be just another fixture for Barcelona to struggle with, I'll regardless have my bet on Barcelona to win at 90 minutes.

My bet is on both to score today, Barcelona should score for sure and I expect Betis to do some problems for Barca defense as well. Really don't like that these matches are played in Saudi Arabia but money can get you anything these days. If I were a supporter from one of these clubs I would send complaining letters every year to make Spanish football associations or whatever their governing body is called aware that not everybody is happy about it.

I prefer to bet on Barca to qualify but I haven't made up my mind yet, although the odds aren't so great but I feel terrible if we end the game to penalties. So I might split my bets, one multibet with Barca inside and one bigger one on them to qualify.

Spain playing their games abroad is a tragedy. Doesn't matter where, even if in next country, it should never happen. If I'm a fan, I'd be protesting and burning down the club HQ!!

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Quote from: Harkorede on January 11, 2023, 09:12:30 PM

Quote from: LTU_btc on January 11, 2023, 06:19:20 PM

So, Valencia lost in semifinal to Real after penalties. It was great game and it's good that we got maximum from it. But when it comes to penalties, when you see players like Benzema, Modric or Kroos going to take it, it's so difficult to expect that they will miss, unless goalkeeper will do miracles. They have so much experience in such games that's just another day in office for them. While Valencia players didn't looked confident there. Sorry for a loss, casperBGD
2nd semifinal Barca - Betis tomorrow, it should be great game and similar scenario like today wouldn't be surprise. Though, I obviously would prefer Barca win in 90 minutes Cheesy

.

It was an intense game between Valencia and Real Madrid and hopefully we'll get an equally or even more interesting game between Barcelona and Betis, for what it's worth, I literally would have preferred Valencia going through because it would have meant a less tougher opponent should Barcelona win their tie as well. I really don't if Lewandowski's ban would be carried over to the super cup, but if that's the case it might be just another fixture for Barcelona to struggle with, I'll regardless have my bet on Barcelona to win at 90 minutes.

My bet is on both to score today, Barcelona should score for sure and I expect Betis to do some problems for Barca defense as well. Really don't like that these matches are played in Saudi Arabia but money can get you anything these days. If I were a supporter from one of these clubs I would send complaining letters every year to make Spanish football associations or whatever their governing body is called aware that not everybody is happy about it.

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Quote from: LTU_btc on January 11, 2023, 06:19:20 PM

So, Valencia lost in semifinal to Real after penalties. It was great game and it's good that we got maximum from it. But when it comes to penalties, when you see players like Benzema, Modric or Kroos going to take it, it's so difficult to expect that they will miss, unless goalkeeper will do miracles. They have so much experience in such games that's just another day in office for them. While Valencia players didn't looked confident there. Sorry for a loss, casperBGD
2nd semifinal Barca - Betis tomorrow, it should be great game and similar scenario like today wouldn't be surprise. Though, I obviously would prefer Barca win in 90 minutes Cheesy

.

It was an intense game between Valencia and Real Madrid and hopefully we'll get an equally or even more interesting game between Barcelona and Betis, for what it's worth, I literally would have preferred Valencia going through because it would have meant a less tougher opponent should Barcelona win their tie as well. I really don't if Lewandowski's ban would be carried over to the super cup, but if that's the case it might be just another fixture for Barcelona to struggle with, I'll regardless have my bet on Barcelona to win at 90 minutes.

LTU_btc

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So, Valencia lost in semifinal to Real after penalties. It was great game and it's good that we got maximum from it. But when it comes to penalties, when you see players like Benzema, Modric or Kroos going to take it, it's so difficult to expect that they will miss, unless goalkeeper will do miracles. They have so much experience in such games that's just another day in office for them. While Valencia players didn't looked confident there. Sorry for a loss, casperBGD
2nd semifinal Barca - Betis tomorrow, it should be great game and similar scenario like today wouldn't be surprise. Though, I obviously would prefer Barca win in 90 minutes Cheesy

.

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Quote from: slaman29 on January 11, 2023, 08:45:03 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on January 10, 2023, 04:44:57 PM

I scored 7.5 points in this round, haha, we are close (including in the final standings - I am in 2nd place). There are good days, there are bad days, that's okay. There is a long distance ahead and sooner or later there will be a good result with forecasts "at random". For example, I don't have much time for analysis right now and I make simple predictions, but the last round in the Serie A pool was unusually good for me.

And maybe I should pay less attention the league then in that case because I seem to be doing worse by trying to follow the news and how teams line up and expected odds etc it would seem that bookie odds on the day itself seems a more accurate way to adjust predictions. I am trying to be very consistent, not to predict too many upsets but it's not working anyway!

This is random. To evaluate the effectiveness of your efforts, you need to try different options over a long distance. For example, in this round, I predicted a draw (if I remember correctly) between Atlético and Barcelona, and it seems to me that Barcelona's victory can hardly be called natural. I also predicted draws in Serie A - between Spezia and Lecce and between Milan and Roma with the same score 1-1. As a result, the first pair played 0-0, and the second 2-2. On the one hand, I guessed right, on the other hand, luck was against me.

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Quote from: KTChampions on January 10, 2023, 04:44:57 PM

Quote from: Harkorede on January 10, 2023, 04:17:37 PM

I'm currently in fourth position, because I had a terrible week, I score just 6 points, If only I had done better, I might have move up a bit better, but I slowly losing my knowledge of the league, maybe it's high time I start watch their matches again because asides Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid, I really don't watch any other matches from the league with occasional exception if we have fixtures like Athletic Bilbao playing teams like Sevilla or Villarreal.

I know 4th position might not be so bad, but If I don't keep up the pace, I'll surely drop only further down the pecking order.

I scored 7.5 points in this round, haha, we are close (including in the final standings - I am in 2nd place). There are good days, there are bad days, that's okay. There is a long distance ahead and sooner or later there will be a good result with forecasts "at random". For example, I don't have much time for analysis right now and I make simple predictions, but the last round in the Serie A pool was unusually good for me.

And maybe I should pay less attention the league then in that case because I seem to be doing worse by trying to follow the news and how teams line up and expected odds etc it would seem that bookie odds on the day itself seems a more accurate way to adjust predictions. I am trying to be very consistent, not to predict too many upsets but it's not working anyway!

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Quote from: Harkorede on January 10, 2023, 04:17:37 PM

Quote from: slaman29 on January 10, 2023, 06:58:05 AM

I climbed 1 spot! 0-0 draws in La Liga are not usually what anyone picks so most of us disappointed:)

I'm currently in fourth position, because I had a terrible week, I score just 6 points, If only I had done better, I might have move up a bit better, but I slowly losing my knowledge of the league, maybe it's high time I start watch their matches again because asides Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid, I really don't watch any other matches from the league with occasional exception if we have fixtures like Athletic Bilbao playing teams like Sevilla or Villarreal.

I know 4th position might not be so bad, but If I don't keep up the pace, I'll surely drop only further down the pecking order.

I scored 7.5 points in this round, haha, we are close (including in the final standings - I am in 2nd place). There are good days, there are bad days, that's okay. There is a long distance ahead and sooner or later there will be a good result with forecasts "at random". For example, I don't have much time for analysis right now and I make simple predictions, but the last round in the Serie A pool was unusually good for me.

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Quote from: slaman29 on January 10, 2023, 06:58:05 AM

I climbed 1 spot! 0-0 draws in La Liga are not usually what anyone picks so most of us disappointed:)

I'm currently in fourth position, because I had a terrible week, I score just 6 points, If only I had done better, I might have move up a bit better, but I slowly losing my knowledge of the league, maybe it's high time I start watch their matches again because asides Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid, I really don't watch any other matches from the league with occasional exception if we have fixtures like Athletic Bilbao playing teams like Sevilla or Villarreal.

I know 4th position might not be so bad, but If I don't keep up the pace, I'll surely drop only further down the pecking order.

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I climbed 1 spot! 0-0 draws in La Liga are not usually what anyone picks so most of us disappointed:)

Quote from: LTU_btc on January 09, 2023, 04:25:08 PM

Quote from: slaman29 on January 09, 2023, 06:58:20 AM

Damn, can't believe it's already semifinals for Supercopa, my brain is somehow still lagging and thinking we are actually less than halfway thru the season.

Well, actually first half of season didn't ended yet, now there is just 16 rounds played. In recent seasons Supercopa is played in January, since they signed contract with Saudi Arabia. Previously Supercopa used to be season opener.

Yeah in recent seasons January is midway through the league already, at least I seem to remember that, I know the World Cup just pushed back some things I'm just still somehow really really lagging in catching up with football and other sports. Feels like I miss football when it's gone, but when it's back I feel so tired lol.

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Quote from: buwaytress on January 09, 2023, 03:45:06 PM

Yeah, lost Real Madrid but upped my ante on Barca, and it paid off pretty well. Was almost tempted to go on half time win too, but was afraid of a late winner, in the end, covered losses and ended up with as good a game as any. Funny thing: boosted odds live around 10th min (when I placed it) was 2.43 but in Betbuilder pre-match, I needed to pair Barca win plus over 4.5 booking points to get the same odds. Match gave a lot more than that of course but only after 87th min!

I had my pick on Barcelona to win, but I wasn't going to have any money on the line, that decision was solely based of on the fact that Lewandowski was supposed to miss the game due to his suspension for the red card he got before the world cup, I was very much surprised that he played the first Barca game of the year and while there is suppose to be a suspension in effective, but from what I learnt, it was said that Barcelona appealed for the suspension and pending the verdict he was allowed to play, not sure how true that is, however knowing the repercussion that comes with fielding an ineligible player in La Liga, so I don't presume Barcelona would have take such a chance.

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Quote from: slaman29 on January 09, 2023, 06:58:20 AM

Damn, can't believe it's already semifinals for Supercopa, my brain is somehow still lagging and thinking we are actually less than halfway thru the season.

Well, actually first half of season didn't ended yet, now there is just 16 rounds played. In recent seasons Supercopa is played in January, since they signed contract with Saudi Arabia. Previously Supercopa used to be season opener.

Quote from: casperBGD on January 09, 2023, 09:08:03 AM

regarding Super Cup, another chance for Valencia to disappoint me further

I don't know why it's stuck in my head that Valencia have good h2h record with Real, but actually, last they they won was in 2020. But it's one game and everything is possible. As Barcelona fan I would have preferred to have Valencia rather than Betis, but to win trophy, you have to beat everyone.

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Yeah, lost Real Madrid but upped my ante on Barca, and it paid off pretty well. Was almost tempted to go on half time win too, but was afraid of a late winner, in the end, covered losses and ended up with as good a game as any. Funny thing: boosted odds live around 10th min (when I placed it) was 2.43 but in Betbuilder pre-match, I needed to pair Barca win plus over 4.5 booking points to get the same odds. Match gave a lot more than that of course but only after 87th min!

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Quote from: LTU_btc on January 08, 2023, 06:18:29 PM

I'm not sure I was watching UFC or Atletico - Barcelona.
-snip
and only Roma comeback against Milan ruined my perfect Sunday.

what about Milan Roma, 11 yellow cards, didn't watch it, but looks as UFC to me

Barca won important match against Atletico, and back to +3 in La Liga, and within our pool nobody pushed for Atletico win, which does not find me surprised

one more today, Bilbao against Osasuna

regarding Super Cup, another chance for Valencia to disappoint me further

Topic: ⚽ Sportsbet.io ⚽ Spanish La Liga ⚽ Football Pool Discussion Thread - page 56. (Read 30619 times)