Sportsbet.io's English Premier League Football Pool Discussion Thread - page 235.

Trofo

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Quote from: Welsh on September 29, 2022, 05:29:26 PM

Quote from: Igebotz on September 29, 2022, 02:58:45 PM

Why is Manchester City at 1.35 against Manchester United? Is it really this bad?

I mean, United are definitely on the rise. However, I'm not too convinced. Their best win was probably against us, but everyone knows how abysmal we were at the time. City on the other hand as been pretty consistent, and are by far the best team in the league right now. Especially with Haaland who's basically scoring for fun.

So, while I don't think the odds should be that bad for United, I do agree with City being a sizeable favourite going into the match. I'd say City at around 1.4-1.5 would've been more align with current from, considering United are definitely on the up, and morale is starting to pick up from a terrible few seasons.

Yeah, those odds would be much more realistic. I guess they are this low since bookie algorithms favor home sides a lot, but City isn't a home team, and without looking at the stats I sort of feel they have it easier when playing away.

Most other teams are home dependant and then they just park the bus when playing away while they try to open up a bit more and actually play on home turf. That extra space is golden for City.

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Quote from: Igebotz on September 29, 2022, 02:58:45 PM

Why is Manchester City at 1.35 against Manchester United? Is it really this bad?

I mean, United are definitely on the rise. However, I'm not too convinced. Their best win was probably against us, but everyone knows how abysmal we were at the time. City on the other hand as been pretty consistent, and are by far the best team in the league right now. Especially with Haaland who's basically scoring for fun.

So, while I don't think the odds should be that bad for United, I do agree with City being a sizeable favourite going into the match. I'd say City at around 1.4-1.5 would've been more align with current from, considering United are definitely on the up, and morale is starting to pick up from a terrible few seasons.

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Quote from: Trofo on September 29, 2022, 03:42:44 PM

Quote from: Igebotz on September 29, 2022, 03:30:12 PM

BTTTS looks like a value bet @1.40 but games after the international break are always unpredictable, I'm sticking with Arsenal @2.20 for the weekend as my value bet.

What is BTTTS? If you mean both to score than the odds are not correct. I did not check them before but now that you wrote 1.4 I was thinking that cannot be right. Both to score on Manchester derby has odds over 1.7 on most bookies. That is acceptable, I would never play it for just 1.4.

Don't trust Arsenal against Spurs with Son back in form. Both to score for me as well.

I personally would trust both teams to score in the Manchester Derby to be honest, It could all end up being a one sided affair or a bore fest, and for the fact that my bias would be on the side of Man City, I still couldn't justify the ML odds at ~ 1.38 for Man City, so that fixture's only value to me is to spectate.

London Derby is actually of a much more interest to me, and both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals here would be highly probable from my perspective, Arsenal still have lots of work to do defensively and Tottenham counter attacking football could be of real damage to Arsenal should Arsenal concede the first goal of the game. It's tough to pick a side though, but Arsenal would be my call here I'm to pick one.

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Quote from: Trofo on September 29, 2022, 03:42:44 PM

Quote from: Igebotz on September 29, 2022, 03:30:12 PM

BTTTS looks like a value bet @1.40 but games after the international break are always unpredictable, I'm sticking with Arsenal @2.20 for the weekend as my value bet.

What is ~~BTTTS~~BTTS? If you mean both to score than the odds are not correct. I did not check them before but now that you wrote 1.4 I was thinking that cannot be right. Both to score on Manchester derby has odds over 1.7 on most bookies. That is acceptable, I would never play it for just 1.4.

Yes, both teams to score, it was a typo, and you are correct about the odd of 1.70; I was on another fixture from the championship BTTS page when I dropped that post, so that's where the error came from. It's likely to end 0-0 or 1-0 at halftime, so I'm going with 2HT most scoring half at 1.95.

Quote from: Trofo on September 29, 2022, 03:42:44 PM

Don't trust Arsenal against Spurs with Son back in form. Both to score for me as well.

It's an important London derby and I'm not going to go into too much detail on this one because too much in-depth analysis hasn't served me well this season. I'm only going to pick a side because I know it's a 50-50 game and the chances of it ending goalless are slim.

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Quote from: Igebotz on September 29, 2022, 03:30:12 PM

BTTTS looks like a value bet @1.40 but games after the international break are always unpredictable, I'm sticking with Arsenal @2.20 for the weekend as my value bet.

What is BTTTS? If you mean both to score than the odds are not correct. I did not check them before but now that you wrote 1.4 I was thinking that cannot be right. Both to score on Manchester derby has odds over 1.7 on most bookies. That is acceptable, I would never play it for just 1.4.

Don't trust Arsenal against Spurs with Son back in form. Both to score for me as well.

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Quote from: casperBGD on September 29, 2022, 03:06:06 PM

Quote from: Igebotz on September 29, 2022, 02:58:45 PM

~snip
Why is Manchester City at 1.35 against Manchester United? Is it really this bad?

IMO, it is a value bet on United, not sure that it is going to make it, but @1.33 I would skip City bet for sure
United started bad, but they are on winning strike in PL, and not so bad performance

City is playing solid on the other hand, winning as expected, two draws so far, and will win the title easily, but odds here are just statistics based, not including local rivalry, and derby status

Splitting stakes on both teams appears to be a safe heaven, and I may go on a 30-70% stake for the first time this season, as Manchester United were playing good football before the international break, at least for the first time this season I'm having little trust on them. 7odds looks too good to pass up.

Quote from: Trofo on September 29, 2022, 03:13:05 PM

I usually end up playing both to score on those games. I don't think United has enough to take points from the City since I can't see how they stop Haaland. Martinez is good 20cm shorter then him while Maguire, if available, will maybe be able to physically match him but will gift few goals with his bad reactions and terrible positioning. United is good enough on counters to score a goal or maybe two if they are lucky and that is why both to score looks like best choice for me.

BTTTS looks like a value bet @1.40 but games after the international break are always unpredictable, I'm sticking with Arsenal @2.20 for the weekend as my value bet.

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Quote from: casperBGD on September 29, 2022, 03:06:06 PM

Quote from: Igebotz on September 29, 2022, 02:58:45 PM

~snip

Why is Manchester City at 1.35 against Manchester United? Is it really this bad?

IMO, it is a value bet on United, not sure that it is going to make it, but @1.33 I would skip City bet for sure
United started bad, but they are on winning strike in PL, and not so bad performance

City is playing solid on the other hand, winning as expected, two draws so far, and will win the title easily, but odds here are just statistics based, not including local rivalry, and derby status

I usually end up playing both to score on those games. I don't think United has enough to take points from the City since I can't see how they stop Haaland. Martinez is good 20cm shorter then him while Maguire, if available, will maybe be able to physically match him but will gift few goals with his bad reactions and terrible positioning. United is good enough on counters to score a goal or maybe two if they are lucky and that is why both to score looks like best choice for me.

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Quote from: casperBGD on September 29, 2022, 03:06:06 PM

Quote from: Igebotz on September 29, 2022, 02:58:45 PM

~snip

Why is Manchester City at 1.35 against Manchester United? Is it really this bad?

IMO, it is a value bet on United, not sure that it is going to make it, but @1.33 I would skip City bet for sure
United started bad, but they are on winning strike in PL, and not so bad performance

City is playing solid on the other hand, winning as expected, two draws so far, and will win the title easily, but odds here are just statistics based, not including local rivalry, and derby status

Well clearly to for me at least Man City is better then United by far. United picked up the form lately and is playing good but City is a much better team and have a good style of football. With derbies you can never know what will happen but i think City got this match in the bag.

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Quote from: Igebotz on September 29, 2022, 02:58:45 PM

~snip

Why is Manchester City at 1.35 against Manchester United? Is it really this bad?

IMO, it is a value bet on United, not sure that it is going to make it, but @1.33 I would skip City bet for sure
United started bad, but they are on winning strike in PL, and not so bad performance

City is playing solid on the other hand, winning as expected, two draws so far, and will win the title easily, but odds here are just statistics based, not including local rivalry, and derby status

Igebotz

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Quote from: Welsh on September 29, 2022, 12:43:38 PM

Anyway, the Premier League is finally back. I don't know about anyone else, but I don't really follow international football so have no idea what went on the last few weeks. Just checking though, it doesn't seem like we have any major injuries so that's something new.

You are not alone, and we, the fans, are not the only ones who have grown tired of international games; the players, particularly those from Africa, are also tired of it; most of them retire from international games to focus on club football. African football management is terrible; when you win games, you become the focus of the media; when you lose games, you are returned to your club to care for you and may never be called up again. International matches now appear to be rigged.

Quote from: Welsh on September 29, 2022, 12:43:38 PM

Liverpool are against Brighton which I'm actually not confident in. I might be going for something that isn't a win for the first time. Knowing my luck, Liverpool will likely blow Brighton away, which isn't out of the realms of possibility since we've had a small break now,and we should be a little more tactically adept with some of our injured players getting sharper every day.

I'm not sure about the new Brighton coach, but I'm sure things will be rough at first; grabbing this one is a huge advantage for Liverpool.

Why is Manchester City at 1.35 against Manchester United? Is it really this bad?

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Quote from: Welsh on September 29, 2022, 12:43:38 PM

Liverpool are against Brighton which I'm actually not confident in. I might be going for something that isn't a win for the first time. Knowing my luck, Liverpool will likely blow Brighton away, which isn't out of the realms of possibility since we've had a small break now,and we should be a little more tactically adept with some of our injured players getting sharper every day.

Despite Liverpool's awful start of the season with tons of injuries and absolutely poor display of football, they still remain unbeaten at home, and i don't think that's gonna change this weekend against The Seagulls who appointed a new head coach 10 days ago. Tbh, I would be extremely worried if Liverpool don't put 3 past Brighton 🤔

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Anyway, the Premier League is finally back. I don't know about anyone else, but I don't really follow international football so have no idea what went on the last few weeks. Just checking though, it doesn't seem like we have any major injuries so that's something new.

Liverpool are against Brighton which I'm actually not confident in. I might be going for something that isn't a win for the first time. Knowing my luck, Liverpool will likely blow Brighton away, which isn't out of the realms of possibility since we've had a small break now,and we should be a little more tactically adept with some of our injured players getting sharper every day.

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Quote from: Welsh on September 22, 2022, 05:20:51 PM

Quote from: Joca97 on September 22, 2022, 12:42:24 PM

It will be really difficult for top teams because most of them have o most entire squad going for national team while the lower ranked teams are resting so we will need to be carefull in picking teams once the national break is over so it will be really intresting

That's where I think a lot of us are going to become stuck a little. You have the one end of the spectrum where players haven't played, and then the other where they've been playing a awful amount in a short period of time, and then going into one of the busiest periods of the Premier League schedule.

I think I'd prefer players that are actively playing, and therefore retaining match fitness, but I don't know. I guess we'll find out, but that could throw a curveball in a lot of our predictions. Might make for an interesting mid point in the season.

And that is if everything goes according to the plan. There will also be injuries to some players for sure.

I am not sure what is better but feel like Haaland now has perfect opportunity to break all the records. He used to have some injury problems when playing often but since he is not going to WC he can use first 2 weeks to rest and then last 2 weeks to return to peak form.

Some other players will be affected by minutes on WC, for instance if Croatia goes far in WC, Modrić will probably have poor second half of the season. He is super fit but playing every minute for Croatia in such short period of time has to leave consequences on 37 year old body.

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Quote from: Joca97 on September 22, 2022, 12:42:24 PM

It will be really difficult for top teams because most of them have o most entire squad going for national team while the lower ranked teams are resting so we will need to be carefull in picking teams once the national break is over so it will be really intresting

That's where I think a lot of us are going to become stuck a little. You have the one end of the spectrum where players haven't played, and then the other where they've been playing a awful amount in a short period of time, and then going into one of the busiest periods of the Premier League schedule.

I think I'd prefer players that are actively playing, and therefore retaining match fitness, but I don't know. I guess we'll find out, but that could throw a curveball in a lot of our predictions. Might make for an interesting mid point in the season.

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Quote from: Trofo on September 21, 2022, 03:00:06 PM

Quote from: KTChampions on September 21, 2022, 02:42:28 PM

No doubt it will be nice to watch football of the highest (sometimes, lol) level on long winter evenings, but in return for this you were deprived of these games in the summer. And if you remember the terrible summer games in the League of Nations, then I would prefer to watch the World Cup instead. It seems that I heard that FIFA promised that they would no longer conduct such experiments and that in the future the World Cup would be held at the traditional time?

I can survive summer without those games. Leagues will last a bit longer and when they stop that is the time I prefer spending on the beach rather than in front of the TV anyway. This one will be better for my schedule for sure, and we could even get best qoulity of football in World Cup ever, since players will be in their peak levels instead of falling of their feat after grueling season. We shall see soon, I hope for the best and plan on enjoying this World Cup to the fullest

I agree about the peak form of the players - in the middle of the season it will be clearly higher than at its end. But in fact, if UEFA and FIFA remove junk tournaments and games from the schedule, then the players will be in great shape even in the summer - like in the good old days. And now the players are in overstrain all year round and get injuries that would not have happened in other conditions.

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Quote from: Welsh on September 22, 2022, 04:59:48 AM

Yeah, but trying to judge form of players, and teams after coming back from the World Cup is going to be difficult, since they'll gel with their national teams. Could mean it'll be an interesting few weeks leading up to the Christmas period. I haven't actually checked, but what happens with the teams that don't have many players going to the World Cup? I assume they'll just be training for period of time? So, you could potentially have some match fitness problems with the lower down teams, which might make a very interesting relegation battle come the end of the season.

It will be really difficult for top teams because most of them have o most entire squad going for national team while the lower ranked teams are resting so we will need to be carefull in picking teams once the national break is over so it will be really intresting

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Quote from: cryptofrka on September 22, 2022, 08:23:11 AM

It would be smart to bet on some African teams early on - or even on Qatar.

We are sort of off topic here since there is WC topic as well but I don't mind and hopefully nobody else has problem with it. It is all football in the end.

I guess you did not see what Croatia under 23 did to Qatar few days ago? It was a team of only HNL players which came together 1 day before the match and most of them never played together before. To make it crystal clear there is no Croatia U23 team, they assembled a bunch of solid young players from our domestic league, gave them a name based on age, had one training with them and destroyed Qatar 3:0. Not so familiar with Qatar side but i believe they played their best 11.

Maybe conditions are in their favor but any serious team will destroy them without giving 100% in that match. Fair point about African teams though, I'll keep an eye on them.

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Fair point regarding the tiredness of the players. This might be the freshest they will be in a long time - which might result in an overall better quality of football.
Still - the weather in Qatar will be tough even in November. I landed there early October last year at 4 AM and it was 40 degrees and was barely breathable.

It would be smart to bet on some African teams early on - or even on Qatar.

It is also fair to assume that the quality of the Premier league (and all the other competitions as well - including the CL) will drop as we approach the end of the season.

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Quote from: Trofo on September 21, 2022, 03:00:06 PM

-snip
This one will be better for my schedule for sure, and we could even get best qoulity of football in World Cup ever, since players will be in their peak levels instead of falling of their feat after grueling season. We shall see soon, I hope for the best and plan on enjoying this World Cup to the fullest

same thinking about football quality here, player will be at peak performance, and that could lead to surprises IMO

not sure about team work, dough, did not looked at schedules, but I doubt that pause before WC will be too long, and teams will need time to get together, since players are coming from all sides, from the tough competitions (most clubs do not have much to play for in early May, settled for Europe spot, or in the middle of the table, and now all grind points, with big expectations)

but yeah, better to watch TV in winter, than in summer

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Yeah, but trying to judge form of players, and teams after coming back from the World Cup is going to be difficult, since they'll gel with their national teams. Could mean it'll be an interesting few weeks leading up to the Christmas period. I haven't actually checked, but what happens with the teams that don't have many players going to the World Cup? I assume they'll just be training for period of time? So, you could potentially have some match fitness problems with the lower down teams, which might make a very interesting relegation battle come the end of the season.

Topic: Sportsbet.io's English Premier League Football Pool Discussion Thread - page 235. (Read 145515 times)