Topic: Stephen Reed's Million Dollar Logistic Model - page 8. (Read 123165 times)
Holy Log 10 delta Batman!
where is updated chart? 
Here, same as always: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=1
where is updated chart?
how is going? can we catch $1m @2019? if it ll be happen i ll have around $600k in 2019 
I wonder how Bitcoin compares to (US$) Velocity of M2 Money Supply.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=GHo
Looked a bit on the net and found a study from 2012 where they've calculated on a quarterly basis. Interesting that the data to calculate the velocity of Bitcoin is available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week and doesn't rely on corporate reporting. Posting a comment to the author suggesting this would be a good article to update.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=GHoLooked a bit on the net and found a study from 2012 where they've calculated on a quarterly basis. Interesting that the data to calculate the velocity of Bitcoin is available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week and doesn't rely on corporate reporting. Posting a comment to the author suggesting this would be a good article to update.
Quote
http://cryptonomics.org/2012/11/10/the-velocity-and-dormancy-of-bitcoin/
We can make a back-of-envelope calculation right now. We’ll estimate the average (quarterly) Bitcoin velocity over the same time window studied in the paper, Jan 2009 to mid-May 2012 (13.5 quarters).
According to R&S the sum of all transactions (excluding minted coins) for the period is 423,287,950. As money growth over this period is linear and the first block starts at 50 and the last block is 9 million, the average money supply is 4,500,00. Divide the former by the latter and multiply by \frac{1}{13.5} and you get a quarterly money velocity for bitcoin of just under 7.
Is that high or low? As a benchmark, look at US M1 money velocity, which we can get from the St. Louis Fed. The average quarterly US money velocity over the same period was about 8 (it’s currently about 6.9), and this has been on a downward trend since 2008.
We should really work these numbers into a timeseries, but the average is at least in line with USD velocity numbers, which in itself should cast some doubt on the level of economic activity that gets done in bitcoins. But we should also note that the numerator in our rough calculation includes change, which should be subtracted out; paying yourself doesn’t exactly count as coin “changing hands”. Devising an estimator for this is a task for a rainy day, but suffice it to say that our velocity estimate of \approx 7 is biased upwards.
We can make a back-of-envelope calculation right now. We’ll estimate the average (quarterly) Bitcoin velocity over the same time window studied in the paper, Jan 2009 to mid-May 2012 (13.5 quarters).
According to R&S the sum of all transactions (excluding minted coins) for the period is 423,287,950. As money growth over this period is linear and the first block starts at 50 and the last block is 9 million, the average money supply is 4,500,00. Divide the former by the latter and multiply by \frac{1}{13.5} and you get a quarterly money velocity for bitcoin of just under 7.
Is that high or low? As a benchmark, look at US M1 money velocity, which we can get from the St. Louis Fed. The average quarterly US money velocity over the same period was about 8 (it’s currently about 6.9), and this has been on a downward trend since 2008.
We should really work these numbers into a timeseries, but the average is at least in line with USD velocity numbers, which in itself should cast some doubt on the level of economic activity that gets done in bitcoins. But we should also note that the numerator in our rough calculation includes change, which should be subtracted out; paying yourself doesn’t exactly count as coin “changing hands”. Devising an estimator for this is a task for a rainy day, but suffice it to say that our velocity estimate of \approx 7 is biased upwards.
lol ECB starting to make EUR worth peanuts.
That's a LONG way off, at least compared to the USD$. We're at 1.29 now. We "started" basically at even or really close to it and for a bit the EUR was trading at .83 cents to the dollar. But since I like to travel to Europe I'm still hoping for .83 cents on the dollar down the road...
lol ECB starting to make EUR worth peanuts.
I believe that some of the "price suppression" we are seeing is due to miner's selling off-market to the etf's/commercial investors.
Now that the miner's are mostly underwater or close to it, the next big swell perhaps will come from the miners refusing to operate or sell at a loss.
Once all mining hardware becomes unprofitable we will see the buying pressure come back to the market as the miners either turn off their non-profitable hardware, or begin to panic hold all their coins for the day it goes up in price. Large off-market buyers will have to get their coins on the markets instead of under the table.
When we are talking about small fry miners like myself, we can run at a loss for as long as we want...the large scale mines have hydro bills and rent in the thousands each month that have to be paid. Either the equipment has to be turned off or the remaining coins (what's left after all the bills are paid each month) have to have to be hoarded or sold at a premium.
Now we wait for the situation to precipitate into a crisis.
Now that the miner's are mostly underwater or close to it, the next big swell perhaps will come from the miners refusing to operate or sell at a loss.
Once all mining hardware becomes unprofitable we will see the buying pressure come back to the market as the miners either turn off their non-profitable hardware, or begin to panic hold all their coins for the day it goes up in price. Large off-market buyers will have to get their coins on the markets instead of under the table.
When we are talking about small fry miners like myself, we can run at a loss for as long as we want...the large scale mines have hydro bills and rent in the thousands each month that have to be paid. Either the equipment has to be turned off or the remaining coins (what's left after all the bills are paid each month) have to have to be hoarded or sold at a premium.
Now we wait for the situation to precipitate into a crisis.
Currently, the money printing from the Federal Reserve appear to be closing up to the inflation of BTC. This will not do well for the exchange rate USD/BTC
BUT
The new QE of the ECB is probably what will take us up to new highs. Depending on how much the ECB will print to buy trash assets owned by banks and governments, this will push the exchange rate of €/BTC up.
In the end, what it is needed is some currency inflating more than BTC. Larger is the monetary base of such a currency, larger will be the quantity of this currency converted in BTC.
Japan is returning to print cash as there is no tomorrow, also.
More time we wait at this level, more explosive will be the spike of the price in the future.
BUT
The new QE of the ECB is probably what will take us up to new highs. Depending on how much the ECB will print to buy trash assets owned by banks and governments, this will push the exchange rate of €/BTC up.
In the end, what it is needed is some currency inflating more than BTC. Larger is the monetary base of such a currency, larger will be the quantity of this currency converted in BTC.
Japan is returning to print cash as there is no tomorrow, also.
More time we wait at this level, more explosive will be the spike of the price in the future.
There could be very strong underlying buying pressure building. That is the only way for the price to catapult
above 10k. Frenzied speculative buying. With more exchanges and ATMs arriving each day, the possibility of more active market participants grows. Those empty blockchain wallets are the early signs of new potential adopters. For better or for worse, bitcoin's price is one of its sexiest features when it rises. From a purist perspective it's all the things that go into the price: the public ledger, fungibility, scarcity, divisibility, durability and portability that make it possible. For now, bitcoin will trade like a high flying commodity. When it reaches a peak (price stabilizes), it will function as a currency.
above 10k. Frenzied speculative buying. With more exchanges and ATMs arriving each day, the possibility of more active market participants grows. Those empty blockchain wallets are the early signs of new potential adopters. For better or for worse, bitcoin's price is one of its sexiest features when it rises. From a purist perspective it's all the things that go into the price: the public ledger, fungibility, scarcity, divisibility, durability and portability that make it possible. For now, bitcoin will trade like a high flying commodity. When it reaches a peak (price stabilizes), it will function as a currency.
...
I think it's possible the next peak could be $15000 around december
...
I think it's possible the next peak could be $15000 around december
...
Assuming you mean Dec 2014, let's hope that is an accurate prediction.
Note the strong growth of bitcoin transaction quantity in the past month below. Metcalfe's Law suggests that bitcoin price is proportional to the square of the transaction quantity. Perhaps the growth in transaction quantity predicts a price increase, or conversely transaction quantity will soon plummet to match its lows of early summer.
Funny how each peak has about 2x the volume of the previous peak, but after the last peak there was a lot of stagnation. And even though a growth is visible now, we are not yet above the previous peak even, let alone 2x above it.
If the volume keeps rising and starts getting near 80k we will most likely see another peak in price and in volume, volume hitting 150k or so and price hitting 5~6k or so.
If the volume drops significantly however it shows customer adoption is lagging behind a lot. And therefore we will have to wait for it to pick up.
it almost looks like something really significant happened around the end of february/beginning of march... something that really shook the market. what was that place that used to hold everyones bitcoins that were stolen? i forget... ah well... it looks like its recovering, but we got some catching up to do
it seems as though once it gets above the previous peak, the rush towards 2 times about the previous peak is quick and happens within a month or two, after which it drops (to the volume it was just prior to the peak) and takes several months to recover. Besides the peaks, the volume is pretty consistently increasing (exponentially), which would encourage an exponential price increase, (or even double exponential, due to metcalfe's law). This is also what we have seen in the past, and are likely to see in the future as well.
However, and this is probably the reason why bitcoin has not seen a peak since late 2013, around march the volume dropped by a lot, and we are indeed still not above the level of the previous peak. We are nearing it though, and once we reached it, the next peak will likely be only about 50 days away. I'd say we'd reach the next peak just around December, which would coincidentally be about a year after the previous one. Whereas previous peaks where about 8 months apart. The delay is probably not all bad though, since during the previous year a lot has happened which has probably not been priced in yet and also awareness spread, so once the price starts moving many who are sceptic now will consider buying in as to not be left behind.
I think it's possible the next peak could be $15000 around december
i forget... ah well... it looks like its recovering, but we got some catching up to do
The catch up will be pretty funny.
Note the strong growth of bitcoin transaction quantity in the past month below. Metcalfe's Law suggests that bitcoin price is proportional to the square of the transaction quantity. Perhaps the growth in transaction quantity predicts a price increase, or conversely transaction quantity will soon plummet to match its lows of early summer.
Funny how each peak has about 2x the volume of the previous peak, but after the last peak there was a lot of stagnation. And even though a growth is visible now, we are not yet above the previous peak even, let alone 2x above it.
If the volume keeps rising and starts getting near 80k we will most likely see another peak in price and in volume, volume hitting 150k or so and price hitting 5~6k or so.
If the volume drops significantly however it shows customer adoption is lagging behind a lot. And therefore we will have to wait for it to pick up.
it almost looks like something really significant happened around the end of february/beginning of march... something that really shook the market. what was that place that used to hold everyones bitcoins that were stolen? i forget... ah well... it looks like its recovering, but we got some catching up to do
Fixed money supply? interesting. like the tulip bubble. great experiment. i am better off with my pseudo-science, Sir.
Wow, someone actually believes a certain type of flower is an example of a fixed supply.... I .... I don't even know where to start with this one. Biology perhaps?
Fixed money supply? interesting. like the tulip bubble. great experiment. i am better off with my pseudo-science, Sir.
Wow, someone actually believes a certain type of flower is an example of a fixed supply.... I .... I don't even know where to start with this one. Biology perhaps?
Note the strong growth of bitcoin transaction quantity in the past month below. Metcalfe's Law suggests that bitcoin price is proportional to the square of the transaction quantity. Perhaps the growth in transaction quantity predicts a price increase, or conversely transaction quantity will soon plummet to match its lows of early summer.
Funny how each peak has about 2x the volume of the previous peak, but after the last peak there was a lot of stagnation. And even though a growth is visible now, we are not yet above the previous peak even, let alone 2x above it.
If the volume keeps rising and starts getting near 80k we will most likely see another peak in price and in volume, volume hitting 150k or so and price hitting 5~6k or so.
If the volume drops significantly however it shows customer adoption is lagging behind a lot. And therefore we will have to wait for it to pick up.
Is that taken literally? As in 70,000 squared (4.9 billion) should be bitcoins market cap?
Here is the descriptive chart post on my thread that refers to excellent work posted elsewhere on this forum.
Metcalfe's Law Explains 10x Price Growth Vs. 3.2x Transaction Quantity Growth
Is that taken literally? As in 70,000 squared (4.9 billion) should be bitcoins market cap?
"proportional to the square"
Is that taken literally? As in 70,000 squared (4.9 billion) should be bitcoins market cap?
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