Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com - page 1574.

r1senfa17h

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Quote from: Puppet on September 27, 2013, 12:57:24 PM

Back in June, on the 11th, KnC said they had 890 preorders.
https://www.kncminer.com/news?page=3

There is a list of known preorders here:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/kncminer-list-of-orders-october-delivery-249065

If I count the number of the number of rigs preorders on that list up to june 11th, I get 95 jupiters and 47 Saturns. That means ~16% of all preorders were on that list

The total number of preorders for batch one on that list is 146 Jupiters and 68 Saturns. If the same % of customers posted in that thread as for earlier orders, that would mean KnC actually got 6.2x more, or
589 Jupiters and 291 Saturns.

589x400GH + 291x200 = 293TH

Substantial, but no were near enough to quadruple difficulty.

Each of those 890 orders may have more than one device in their order, therefore your extrapolation represents a bare minimum estimation. I do, however, share your sentiment that quadruple difficulty is absurd.

Henchman24

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Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on September 27, 2013, 12:00:05 PM

1,000 units 500 PH/s ~~500 Units (0.25 PH/s)~~ per day.

I think you're still off by a factor of 1000 there. 1000 units = ~500 TH/s, no?

Micky25

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Quote from: Rampion on September 27, 2013, 12:37:07 PM

Obviously all the above is kinda ridiculous, because if any company could be able to guarantee any profit by mining they would just mine themselves. Mining with completely specific hardware and not with commodity electronics is leading us to super-professionalized mining scene, where amateurs will be totally cut out. This process is going much faster than some want to believe.

I thought the same before, but then some guys brought up the notion that any large scale commercial operation in this sector has higher operating costs than an individual in the long turn. The hashrate is linear.

Puppet

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Back in June, on the 11th, KnC said they had 890 preorders.
https://www.kncminer.com/news?page=3

There is a list of known preorders here:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/kncminer-list-of-orders-october-delivery-249065

If I count the numberpreorders on that list up to june 11th, I get 95 jupiters and 47 Saturns. That means ~16% of all preorders were on that list

The total number of preorders for batch one on that list is 146 Jupiters and 68 Saturns. If the same % of customers posted in that thread as for earlier orders, that would mean KnC actually got 6.2x more, or
589 Jupiters and 291 Saturns.

589x400GH + 291x200 = 293TH

Substantial, but no were near enough to quadruple difficulty.

bitrebel

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Activity: 364

Merit: 251

Quote from: NiteShdw on September 27, 2013, 12:38:30 PM

Quote from: bitrebel on September 27, 2013, 11:57:37 AM

I cancelled in Early Sept. $20k in refunds. I reinvested it in a much more lucrative enterprise.
The amazing response to our Pre-Orders for Batch Producers has caused us to look at shutting down the Pre-Orders early because we no longer have any in stock.
The market is changing quickly. CEE are the new thing, much bigger than Bitcoin, I believe. And virtually ZERO competition.

What are you talking about?

Colored Easter Egg Batch Producers, for God Sake, already.
Look at the pics of our facility a few pages back. We are hatshing at 400 CEE/S.
Getting Pre-Orders like CRAZY!
We're about to shut down all Pre-Orders completely because we are practically SOLD OUT!
50 BTC each. What a deal!

NiteShdw

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Quote from: bitrebel on September 27, 2013, 11:57:37 AM

I cancelled in Early Sept. $20k in refunds. I reinvested it in a much more lucrative enterprise.
The amazing response to our Pre-Orders for Batch Producers has caused us to look at shutting down the Pre-Orders early because we no longer have any in stock.
The market is changing quickly. CEE are the new thing, much bigger than Bitcoin, I believe. And virtually ZERO competition.

What are you talking about?

Rampion

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Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on September 27, 2013, 12:07:18 PM

True I just think it won't be that high for a couple reasons. Then again if it is then KNC customers are screwed either way.

Completely agree on that, I've been saying that from day 1. Only thing to do to at least try to "guarantee" a positive ROI to investors is to do something similar to what Avalon did at the beginning - selling batches - with the important difference that the miners should be immediately available, otherwise you risk a competitors burns you by deploying massive hashrate.

Obviously all the above is kinda ridiculous, because if any company could be able to guarantee any profit by mining they would just mine themselves. Mining with completely specific hardware and not with commodity electronics is leading us to super-professionalized mining scene, where amateurs will be totally cut out. This process is going much faster than some want to believe.

DeathAndTaxes

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Activity: 1218

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Gerald Davis

True I just think it won't be that high for a couple reasons. Then again if it is then KNC customers are screwed either way. If they need to ship that much and can't customers are screwed by late shipments. If they need to ship that much and can then difficulty explodes so high (even assuming nobody else ships anything) that the returns are crushed.

The good news is I think KNC pre-order amount is probably lower. The round about reason is KNC die size is probably large. The fact that they are the only company not to release die size information, the large package size, and the high (on a relative basis) power consumption makes me think the die is 400mm2 to 600mm2. That means less chips per wafer and KNC is a well run enough company they would put the first order in once they hit the batch size (usually 50 wafers) rather than wait (and take longer to get chips).

Edit: I just realized I wrote 500 above, I was thinking 1,000 per day.

ImI

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In the end: 400% increase = BS

Rampion

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Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on September 27, 2013, 12:00:05 PM

Quote from: WillMilk4Coin on September 27, 2013, 11:42:08 AM

Quote from: Rampion on September 27, 2013, 11:14:44 AM

If KnC delivers +400 units per day as they claim we will probably see a 400% difficulty jump. Anyhow, i dont think they will.

If KnC delivers 400 units a day, assuming all Jupiters at 500Gh/s...

200Th added daily for the 12 working days between the beginning of next week Monday and October 15. That's 2.4Ph dropped onto the network by the middle of October. (Coincidentally, that figure being very close to D&T's thread on guesstimated preorders)

This would mean a jump of ~350million (from 2.4Ph) + ~150 million that it is now = 500 million. High? Maybe; A 400% increase? No.

Some people have what I believe are unrealistic expectations on the amount of KNC orders. I have seen ~~projections~~ wild ass guesses as high as them shipping 500 Units (0.25 PH/s) per day.

I agree its completely unrealistic, but those are the numbers they claimed to be able to ship daily.

DeathAndTaxes

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Gerald Davis

Quote from: WillMilk4Coin on September 27, 2013, 11:42:08 AM

Quote from: Rampion on September 27, 2013, 11:14:44 AM

If KnC delivers +400 units per day as they claim we will probably see a 400% difficulty jump. Anyhow, i dont think they will.

If KnC delivers 400 units a day, assuming all Jupiters at 500Gh/s...

200Th added daily for the 12 working days between the beginning of next week Monday and October 15. That's 2.4Ph dropped onto the network by the middle of October. (Coincidentally, that figure being very close to D&T's thread on guesstimated preorders)

This would mean a jump of ~350million (from 2.4Ph) + ~150 million that it is now = 500 million. High? Maybe; A 400% increase? No.

Some people have what I believe are unrealistic expectations on the amount of KNC orders. I have seen ~~projections~~ wild ass guesses as high as them shipping 1,000 units 500 PH/s ~~500 Units (0.25 PH/s)~~ per day.

Rampion

legendary

Activity: 1148

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Quote from: WillMilk4Coin on September 27, 2013, 11:42:08 AM

Quote from: Rampion on September 27, 2013, 11:14:44 AM

If KnC delivers +400 units per day as they claim we will probably see a 400% difficulty jump. Anyhow, i dont think they will.

If KnC delivers 400 units a day, assuming all Jupiters at 500Gh/s...

200Th added daily for the 12 working days between the beginning of next week Monday and October 15. That's 2.4Ph dropped onto the network by the middle of October. (Coincidentally, that figure being very close to D&T's thread on guesstimated preorders)

This would mean a jump of ~350million (from 2.4Ph) + ~150 million that it is now = 500 million. High? Maybe; A 400% increase? No.

Yep, you are right, that'd be a jump of above 200%, not 400%. Anyhow, a 200% jump from 150M might too be quite a problem for some people.

bitrebel

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 251

Quote from: markm on September 27, 2013, 08:29:48 AM

Oh right, they already shipped to the assembly plant.

Oh well, better luck next time.

Should have cancelled sooner, eh? Amazing that people so worried would wait until too late.

-MarkM-

I cancelled in Early Sept. $20k in refunds. I reinvested it in a much more lucrative enterprise.
The amazing response to our Pre-Orders for Batch Producers has caused us to look at shutting down the Pre-Orders early because we no longer have any in stock.
The market is changing quickly. CEE are the new thing, much bigger than Bitcoin, I believe. And virtually ZERO competition.

And our Batch Producers are currently Hatshing, too.

WillMilk4Coin

member

Activity: 83

Merit: 10

Quote from: Rampion on September 27, 2013, 11:14:44 AM

If KnC delivers +400 units per day as they claim we will probably see a 400% difficulty jump. Anyhow, i dont think they will.

If KnC delivers 400 units a day, assuming all Jupiters at 500Gh/s...

200Th added daily for the 12 working days between the beginning of next week Monday and October 15. That's 2.4Ph dropped onto the network by the middle of October. (Coincidentally, that figure being very close to D&T's thread on guesstimated preorders)

This would mean a jump of ~350million (from 2.4Ph) + ~150 million that it is now = 500 million. High? Maybe; A 400% increase? No.

Rampion

legendary

Activity: 1148

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Quote from: ImI on September 27, 2013, 10:42:25 AM

Quote from: Rampion on September 27, 2013, 10:34:44 AM

Quote from: blastbob on September 27, 2013, 10:32:34 AM

Quote from: crumbs on September 27, 2013, 10:29:02 AM

Quote from: blastbob on September 27, 2013, 10:22:55 AM

When did expected become a promise.

Semantics pedantry -- the last resort of failed fanbois. Hope you get an equally formalistic package from KNC -- A plastic miner doll wearing a "500GH/s" bib.

Fanboy.. not sure about that. But heavy invested yes.

There will be a video during the weekend on a working unit. And pickup / shipments starts early next week. Dont see the problem.

200M difficulty and probably a 400% jump on next adjustment might be a problem for some.

800m by next adjustment in around one week?

You wanna be quoted then with this?

If KnC delivers +400 units per day as they claim we will probably see a 400% difficulty jump. Anyhow, i dont think they will.

-Redacted-

hero member

Activity: 574

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Right - so don't fly down on Sunday afternoon expecting to pick something up.

dwdoc

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- - -Caveat Aleo- - -

Quote from: mruiter on September 27, 2013, 11:01:49 AM

Is it just me who thinks that.

Chips just arrived. KNC will work all weekend to drop a huge day 1 load off miners into the UPS Truck that has already been reserved.
At the moment the boxes go in the truck they get scanned and a couple of hours will pass until we get our tracking.
If they would really wan't to go for it the can even ship on sundays with these large number of shippings, so it's still possible to receive it on 30 september (this year)

Except blastbob got this email:

Quote from: blastbob on September 27, 2013, 08:43:46 AM

Quote

As we are now in production we can’t say for sure that your boxes will be ready for pickup on Monday.
There are no pickups before Monday in any case.

Most likely all your orders will be ready early next week, but that does bring us into October I’m afraid.

-Redacted-

hero member

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That sounds like a more reasonable scenario than many that have been posted recently....

mruiter

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Is it just me who thinks that.

Chips just arrived. KNC will work all weekend to drop a huge day 1 load off miners into the UPS Truck that has already been reserved.
At the moment the boxes go in the truck they get scanned and a couple of hours will pass until we get our tracking.
If they would really wan't to go for it the can even ship on sundays with these large number of shippings, so it's still possible to receive it on 30 september (this year)

crumbs

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Quote from: The Avenger on September 27, 2013, 10:41:53 AM

Quote from: crumbs on September 27, 2013, 10:38:07 AM

Quote from: blastbob on September 27, 2013, 10:32:34 AM

Quote from: crumbs on September 27, 2013, 10:29:02 AM

Quote from: blastbob on September 27, 2013, 10:22:55 AM

When did expected become a promise.

Semantics pedantry -- the last resort of failed fanbois. Hope you get an equally formalistic package from KNC -- A plastic miner doll wearing a "500GH/s" bib.

Fanboy.. not sure about that. But heavy invested yes.

There will be a video during the weekend on a working unit. And pickup / shipments starts early next week. Dont see the problem.

BFL "started shipping" when?

Okay, time to make your ignore button a little bit more yellow crumbs. All this BS/FUD comes from comparing KNC to "others" and holding them to promises the "others" made. Last resort of a troll who has no more arguments/cards to play. See ya.

Quote from: crumbs on September 27, 2013, 06:46:19 AM

...
@The Avenger: KNC is an ASIC manufacturer. If you think there's a reason it should be exempt from comparisons to other ASIC makers, please make a case. In the meantime,

"At least Pedobear was cuddly!"

Edit:
Today in the news: TerraHash shuts down, bitcoin miners upset with 50% refund

Topic: Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com - page 1574. (Read 3050071 times)