I've been following this thread for a little while now and holy crap the FUD! Finally something I can relate to.
I agree with most of what both of you have said. The one part I don't agree with you 100% is the assumption that all ASIC miners will auto sell all their coins. I know I won't sell all of them, sure I might sell maybe 25-50% back to fiat until I get my money back. The rest I plan on holding and to think that all ASIC miners will instantly sell BTC to their choice of fiat is an assumption none of us can make, because we just don't know.
I too can't see why the introduction of ASICs would cause any more BTC sales each day than before, it's not like there will be anymore BTC actually produced each day. Miners have always had a huge investment in hardware to recoup, be it a farm of GPUs or ASICs, whatever holding/sale ratio they have been doing for years will probably continue.
Agreed and to add on further: We now have way more businesses that accept BTC. Which allows us not to have to convert to fiat as much as in the past. This is something that the GPU guys didn't have back then.
how many levels is that eco-system? one? maybe two? before it has to get exchanged anyway?
unless it is full circle you can't look for a support there... only a place like SR really can say they keep it circulating at this stage (no forced taxes even)
i already gave the differences, smaller piles, many miners vs less miners bigger piles.. you have to look at technical analytics on exchanges about blasting through the bid like what happened last we fell to the 60's - if you dont understand it or believe it.. its ok. hedge or hedge not